Israeli attacks on Iran, what it gained or lost?

No one could believe that the United States or Israel launch attacks on Iran in the middle of a diplomatic process. The sixth round of indirect nuclear talks with the US was scheduled later in the week. There were expectations a breakthrough was possible this time.

US President Donald Trump had urged Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to avoid attacking Iran. Even if Trump is "crazy," many analysts argued, he seemed capable of clear thinking when it came to West Asia, understanding that another war in the region - especially one that involves Iran - would benefit no one.

However, Trump turned out to be just as crazy and ignorant as people knew he was. He provided Israel with logistics and intelligence needed to strike residential buildings, nuclear facilities, and military sites across Iran while a meeting was scheduled in Oman.

Why did Israel attack Iran?  

Netanyahu claims the attacks aimed to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons a justification few accept, even those minimally informed about Iran s nuclear program.  

The IAEA and Western intelligence agencies have confirmed time and time again that despite nuclear advancements, Iran has neither pursued nuclear weapons nor demonstrated political will to do so. If Iran develops such weapons in the future, it will likely be a direct result of Israel s brazen aggression, making them feel such arms are necessary.

Israeli attacks on the Natanz and Fordow nuclear facilities failed to cause significant damage. As per Iran's nuclear chief's latest announcement, both sites are currently operating normally. This did not come as a surprise, as the whole world had known for a while that the main part of Iran's nuclear facilities are placed deep under the ground, and that it is impossible to destroy them with conventional weapons.. 

To understand why Iran was attacked, we must first examine the Israeli offensive.  

Israeli operation against Iran comprised of three elements: 1) assassinating military leaders, 2) attacking nuclear sites, and 3) terrorizing civilians.  

Israel believed its offensive would result in three things: 1) The assassination of top Iranian commanders would delay or prevent retaliation, 2) All or a significant number of Iran's missile launchers, depots, and military sites would be destroyed through Friday's campaign, and 3) Killing of Iranian civilians and striking the heart of Tehran would pit the people against the government and spur an uprising

All assumptions proved false. While the loss of five of its top military leaders did deal a blow to Iran, it did not cripple the Iranian Armed Forces. Leader of the Islamic Revolution Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei took only a couple of hours to replace the assasinated generals. 

While analysts don't know how much damage Israel has managed to inflict on Iran's military assets, it is clear that a large part of the country's defensive and offensive calibilties are still in tact. 

Since the conflict began, Iran has launched multiple waves of missile strikes against the occupied territories, hitting critical targets like the Haifa oil refinery, the Mossad and Aman headquarters, military bases, and nuclear research centers. The Iranian Armed Forces claim they have enough missiles to hit Israeli targets every day for two years.  

Another Israeli prediction that proved false was that given the various financial and societal issues gripping Iran in recent years, the people would choose to topple the government in order to "save" their lives.

Netanyahu issued a message to the Iranian people, and later did an interview with a US-based Persian speaking channel to tell them he was only at war with the government, and that he wanted to bring Iranians freedom and prosperity.

The Israeli aggression only made Iranians more united and even prompted well-known individuals with a long history of anti-goverment activisim to rally behind Ayatollah Khamenei.

What Israel gained or lost? 

Netanyahu managed to gain a temporary period of Euphoria. Settlers in the occupied territories are accustomed to waging war not facing existential threats. For the first time in Israel s history, its citizens fear for their lives. Iranian missiles strike at will, a reality Israelis recently confronted. As Hebrew media reports, residents barred by authorities from fleeing now pay smugglers to transport them by boat to Cyprus.

Journalists say they are appalled at what's happening, military analysts say Israel's interceptors, which have so far only downed older Iranian missiles designed to preoccupy air defense systems, will be out soon.

Netanyahu and Trump essentialy entered a war they can not finish. It appears Israel failed in estimating Iranian capabilities. They may have to sit back and watch how Iran writes the ending to their story.

 

US action against Iran a threat to peace in Middle East, says Kallas

Potential military involvement by the United States in the wave of strikes between Israel and Iran would "definitely drag" the entire Middle East into a wider, more dangerous conflict, said Kaja Kallas.

Her warning came after Donald Trump openly suggested his country, a staunch backer of Israel, might take a hands-on approach to end the hostilities.

"We're not involved in it. It's possible we could get involved. But we are not at this moment involved," Trump told ABC News on Sunday. He later said the US would be "gloves off" if Iran were to "touch our troops".

"When it comes to the United States getting involved, then it will definitely drag the region into broader conflict. And this is in nobody's interest," Kallas said in Brussels after hosting a video conference with the EU's 27 foreign affairs ministers.

"And from my call with Secretary of State Rubio, he emphasized that it's also not in their interest to be drawn into this conflict," she added, referring to the conversation she had on Monday with her US counterpart.

"We are constantly pushing to stop this war because the risks of escalation and the risks of spillover effect are too great. Also, the risks of miscalculation, which is making this conflict even bigger."

Kallas also weighed in on Trump's stated goal of wanting a "real end" to the conflict that would see Iran giving up its nuclear program "entirely". The comments appeared to be at odds with the EU's long-held position of preventing Iran from developing nuclear weapons while permitting civilian uses.

The 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), also known as the Iran nuclear deal, was designed to curtail the country's nuclear program and keep it exclusively peaceful in exchange for sanctions relief. But after Trump disavowed the deal in his first mandate, Iran began enriching uranium to levels that seemed to exceed any civilian purposes, causing worldwide alarm and condemnation.

Last week, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) found Iran was not complying with its non-proliferation obligations for the first time in 20 years.

"A diplomatic solution is the best way to address Iran's program in the long run, and Europe stands ready to play its part," Kallas said. "We cannot be lenient when Iran accelerates its nuclear program."

Following the video call with foreign affairs ministers, Kallas doubled down on her previous calls for maximum restraint and immediate de-escalation, without adding any new element that could expand the bloc's limited role in the Israel-Iran conflict.

The most concrete development was the activation of the EU's Civil Protection Mechanism, which is used to coordinate emergency assistance for natural disasters, such as wildfires and floods, and man-made crises, like wars.

"We have activated the Civil Protection Mechanism, and we are assisting member states to evacuate their citizens that wish to leave," Kallas said, noting that not all EU countries had the necessary planes to carry out the evacuations.

"In parallel, we stand ready to deploy civil protection experts, and our naval operation ASPIDES (in the Red Sea) continues to protect merchant ships from Houthi attacks while providing valuable situational awareness."

Kallas said the EU would not "let our focus on Gaza slip" and urged "immediate" and "full" access to humanitarian aid, which Israel has heavily restricted.

She refrained from providing details of the ongoing review of the EU-Israel Association Agreement and how the strikes against Iran might influence the discussions.

Kallas also struck down Russia's suggestion of playing the role of moderator in the Israel-Iran conflict, arguing the invasion of Ukraine was a disqualifying factor.

"Russia cannot be a mediator if they don't really believe in peace," she said.

Israel launches new wave of airstrikes on Iran

Intense Israeli airstrikes targeted Iran’s capital, Tehran, early on Wednesday. The Israelis earlier warned they could strike a neighborhood south of Mehrabad International Airport, which includes residential buildings, military installations, pharmaceutical companies and industrial firms.

The attacks come just a day after US President Donald Trump warned Tehran's residents to evacuate and demanded the country’s unconditional surrender.

Israel has yet to successfully target Iran's Fordo facility, which lies deep within a mountainside. Hitting Fordo would require the US to get involved militarily and deploy B-2 stealth bombers to drop its bunker-busting bomb. The 14,000 kg GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator uses its weight and sheer kinetic force to reach deeply buried targets.

Israel announced a new wave of strikes on Tuesday evening as explosions and anti-aircraft fire boomed throughout Tehran, shaking buildings. The Israeli military said its warplanes had targeted 12 missile launch sites and storage facilities.

Israel's military warned the population to stay close to shelters as Iran fired a new barrage of missiles, but officials said most were intercepted.

Sirens sounded in southern Israel, including in the desert town of Dimona, the heart of Israel's never-acknowledged nuclear arms program.

Early on Tuesday, downtown Tehran saw a significant decrease in activity, with numerous shops closed, including the historic Grand Bazaar, which typically shuts its doors only during periods of crisis, such as the 2022 anti-government protests and the coronavirus pandemic.

Tehran is one of the largest cities in the Middle East, with around 10 million residents, roughly equivalent to Israel's entire population.

Iran asserts that its nuclear program is peaceful, while the United States and other nations have determined that Tehran has not engaged in a systematic effort to develop a nuclear weapon since 2003.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu claims that strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities have delayed the nation's nuclear program by a "very, very long time”,

Israel has yet to successfully target Iran's Fordo facility, which lies deep within a mountainside. Hitting Fordo would require the US to get involved militarily and deploy B-2 stealth bombers to drop its bunker-busting bomb. The 14,000 kg GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator uses its weight and sheer kinetic force to reach deeply buried targets.

 

Trump calls unconditional surrender by Iran

Iran and Israel launched new missile strikes at each other on Wednesday as the air war between the two longtime enemies entered a sixth day despite a call from US President Donald Trump for Tehran's unconditional surrender, reports Reuters.

The Israeli military said two barrages of Iranian missiles were launched toward Israel in the first two hours of Wednesday morning. Explosions were heard over Tel Aviv.

Israel told residents in a southwestern area of Tehran to evacuate so its air force could strike Iranian military installations. Iranian news websites said Israel was attacking a university linked to Iran's Revolutionary Guards in the east of the capital.

Iranian news websites said Israel was also attacking a university linked to Iran's Revolutionary Guards in the country's east, and the Khojir ballistic missile facility near Tehran, which was also targeted by Israeli airstrikes last October.

The US Office of the Director of National Intelligence says Iran is armed with the largest number of ballistic missiles in the Middle East. Iran has said its ballistic missiles are an important deterrent and retaliatory force against the US, Israel and other potential regional targets.

Trump warned on social media on Tuesday that US patience was wearing thin. While he said there was no intention to kill Iran's leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei "for now," his comments suggested a more aggressive stance toward Iran as he weighs whether to deepen US involvement.

"We know exactly where the so-called 'Supreme Leader' is hiding," he wrote on Truth Social. "We are not going to take him out (kill!), at least not for now ... Our patience is wearing thin."

Three minutes later Trump posted, "Unconditional Surrender!"

Trump's contradictory and cryptic messaging about the conflict between close US ally Israel and longtime foe Iran has deepened the uncertainty surrounding the crisis. His public comments have ranged from military threats to diplomatic overtures, not uncommon for a president known for an often erratic approach to foreign policy.

A source familiar with internal discussions said Trump and his team are considering a number of options, including joining Israel on strikes against Iranian nuclear sites.

A White House official said Trump spoke to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu by phone on Tuesday.

Trump also met for 90 minutes with his National Security Council on Tuesday afternoon to discuss the conflict, a White House official said. Details were not immediately available.

The US is deploying more fighter aircraft to the Middle East and extending the deployment of other warplanes. The US has so far only taken indirect actions in the current conflict with Iran, including helping to shoot down missiles fired toward Israel.

A source with access to US intelligence reports said Iran has moved some ballistic missile launchers, but it is difficult to determine if they were targeting US forces or Israel.

 

 

 

 

Muslim countries reject Israeli attacks on Iran

Twenty Arab and Islamic countries, including Saudi Arabia, affirmed their condemnation and rejection of the Israeli attacks on Iran, reports Saudi Gazette.

In a joint statement released by the Egyptian Foreign Ministry, foreign ministers of these countries expressed their concern over the dangerous escalation that threatens the security and stability of the region.

The foreign ministers called for de-escalation with an immediate ceasefire. The signatory countries include Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan, the United Arab Emirates, Pakistan, Bahrain, Brunei Darussalam, Turkey, Chad, Algeria, the Union of the Comoros, Djibouti, Sudan, Somalia, Iraq, Oman, Qatar, Kuwait, Libya, and Mauritania.

The foreign ministers expressed their condemnation and rejection of the launch of the Israeli attacks on Iran since the dawn of June 13, as well as practices that violate international law and the principles of the UN Charter.

They emphasized the need to respect the sovereignty and territorial integrity of states, the principles of good neighborliness, and the peaceful resolution of disputes.

The foreign ministers stressed the importance of making the Middle East a zone free of nuclear weapons and weapons of mass destruction in accordance with international resolutions.

They urged all countries in the region to join the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) without selectivity.

The signatory states rejected targeting nuclear facilities under International Atomic Energy Agency safeguards, as this constitutes a flagrant violation of international and humanitarian law under the 1949 Geneva Convention.

The foreign ministers called for the resumption of negotiations as soon as possible as the only way to reach a sustainable agreement on Iran's nuclear program.

They emphasized the importance of respecting freedom of navigation in international waterways in accordance with international law and preventing any threat to maritime security.

The Islamic countries emphasized that diplomatic solutions and dialogue are the only way to resolve regional crises, while adhering to the principles of good neighborliness and the UN Charter. They emphasized that military solutions will not contribute to resolving the crisis.

Trump joins Israel in erasing Iranian nuclear facilities

US President Donald Trump said he wanted a "real end" to the nuclear dispute with Iran. Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz said meanwhile that Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei could face the same fate as Iraqi President Saddam Hussein, who was toppled in a US-led invasion and eventually hanged after a trial, reports Reuters.

"I warn the Iranian dictator against continuing to commit war crimes and fire missiles at Israeli citizens," Katz told top Israeli military officials.

Speaking to reporters after his early departure from Canada, where he attended the Group of Seven nations summit on Monday, Trump predicted that Israel would not be easing its attacks on Iran.

Trump said his departure from the G7 summit had "nothing to do with" working on a deal between Israel and Iran, after French President Emmanuel Macron said the U.S. had initiated a ceasefire proposal.

Khamenei has seen his main military and security advisers killed by Israeli air strikes, leaving major holes in his inner circle and raising the risk of strategic errors.

Israel's military said Iran's military leadership is "on the run" and that it had killed Iran's wartime chief of staff Ali Shadmani overnight four days into his job after replacing another top commander killed in the strikes.

 

 

G7 at height of hypocrisy

The Group of Seven nations expressed support for Israel in a statement issued late on Monday and labeled its rival Iran as a source of instability in the Middle East, with the G7 leaders urging broader de-escalation of hostilities in the region, reports Reuters.

The air war between Iran and Israel - which began on Friday when Israel attacked Iran with air strikes - has raised alarms in a region that had already been on edge since the start of Israel's military assault on Gaza in October 2023.

"We affirm that Israel has a right to defend itself. We reiterate our support for the security of Israel," G7 leaders said in the statement.

"Iran is the principal source of regional instability and terror," the statement added and said the G7 was "clear that Iran can never have a nuclear weapon."

Israel attacked Iran on Friday in what it called a preemptive strike to prevent Tehran from developing nuclear weapons. Since then the two Middle Eastern rivals have exchanged blows, with Iranian officials reporting over 220 deaths, mostly civilians, while Israel said 24 civilians were killed.

It is on record that Iran is not seeking nuclear weapons and has said it has the right to develop nuclear technology for peaceful purposes, including enrichment, as a party to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.

Israel, which is not a party to the NPT, is the only country in the Middle East widely believed to have nuclear weapons. Israel does not deny or confirm that.

Although the US has been saying it is not involved in the Israeli attacks, Trump has admitted he was aware of Israel's strikes in advance and called them "excellent." Washington has warned Tehran not to attack US interests or personnel in the region.

An Israeli strike hit Iran's state broadcaster on Monday while Trump said in a social media post that "everyone should immediately evacuate Tehran."

Separately, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio also discussed the Israel-Iran war in phone calls with his British, French and European Union counterparts on Monday.