Israel getting ready to attack Iranian nuclear facilities

The United States has obtained new intelligence suggesting that Israel is making preparations to strike Iranian nuclear facilities, even as the Trump administration has been pursuing a diplomatic deal with Tehran, reports CNN.

Such a strike would be a brazen break with President Donald Trump. It could also risk tipping off a broader regional conflict in the Middle East — something the US has sought to avoid since the war in Gaza started in October 2023.

Officials caution it’s not clear that Israeli leaders have made a final decision, and that in fact, there is deep disagreement within the US government about the likelihood that Israel will ultimately act. Whether and how Israel strikes will likely depend on what it thinks of the US negotiations with Tehran over its nuclear program.

The chance of an Israeli strike on an Iranian nuclear facility has gone up significantly in recent months. The prospect of a Trump-negotiated US-Iran deal that doesn’t remove all of Iran’s uranium makes the chance of a strike more likely.

The heightened worries stem not only from public and private messaging from senior Israeli officials that it is considering such a move, but also from intercepted Israeli communications and observations of Israeli military movements that could suggest an imminent strike.

Among the military preparations the US has observed are the movement of air munitions and the completion of an air exercise.

Those same indicators could also simply be Israel trying to pressure Iran to abandon key tenets of its nuclear program by signaling the consequences if it doesn’t — underscoring the ever-shifting complexities the White House is navigating.

Trump has publicly threatened military action against Iran if his administration’s efforts to negotiate a new nuclear deal to limit or eliminate Tehran’s nuclear program fail. Trump also set a limit on how long the US would engage in diplomatic efforts.

In a letter to Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in mid-March, Trump set a 60-day deadline for those efforts to succeed. It has now been more than 60 days since that letter was delivered, and 38 days since the first round of talks began.

A senior Western diplomat who met with the president earlier this month said that Trump communicated the US would give those negotiations only weeks to succeed before resorting to military strikes.

That has put Israel “between a rock and a hard place,” said Jonathan Panikoff, a former senior intelligence official specializing in the region.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is under pressure both to avoid a US-Iran deal that Israel doesn’t view as satisfactory, while also not alienating Trump — who has already broken with the Israeli prime minister on key security issues in the region.

“At the end of the day, the Israeli decision-making is going to be predicated on US policy determinations and actions, and what agreements President Trump does or does not come to with Iran,” Panikoff said, who added that he did not believe Netanyahu would be willing to risk entirely fracturing the US relationship by launching a strike without at least tacit US approval.

Iran is in its weakest military position in decades, after Israel bombed its missile production facilities and air defenses in October last year, combined with an economy weakened by sanctions and Israel’s decimation of its most powerful regional proxies. Israel.

The US is stepping up intelligence collection to be prepared to assist if Israeli leaders decide to strike, one senior US official told CNN.

A source familiar with the Trump administration’s thinking told CNN the US is unlikely to help Israel carry out strikes on Iranian nuclear sites at this moment.

Israel does not have the capacity to destroy Iran’s nuclear program without American assistance, including midair refueling and the bombs required to penetrate the facilities deep underground, a need that is also reflected in previous US intelligence reports.

An Israeli source told CNN that Israel would be prepared to carry out military action on its own if the US were to negotiate what this source described as a “bad deal” with Iran that Israel cannot accept.

It is more likely they strike to try and get the deal to fall apart if they think Trump is going to settle for a ‘bad deal’. The Israelis have not been shy about signaling both publicly and privately.

A US intelligence assessment from February suggested Israel could use either military aircraft or long-range missiles to capitalize on Iran’s degraded air defense capabilities, CNN previously reported.

The same assessment also described how such strikes would only minimally set the Iranian nuclear program back and wouldn’t be a cure-all. “It’s a real challenge for Netanyahu,” Panikoff said.

The US talks with Iran are stuck on a demand that Tehran not enrich uranium, a process which can enable weaponization, but which is also necessary to produce nuclear power for civilian purposes.

Special envoy Steve Witkoff, who is leading the US delegation, told ABC News over the weekend that Washington “cannot allow even 1% of an enrichment capability” under an agreement. “We’ve delivered a proposal to the Iranians that we think addresses some of this without disrespecting them,” he said.

Khamenei said on Tuesday that he does not expect negotiations with the United States over Tehran’s nuclear program to “reach a conclusion,” calling the US demand that Iran not enrich uranium a “big mistake.”

Iran insists it has a right to enrich under the United Nations’ Treaty on Nuclear Non-Proliferation and says it will not relinquish that right under any circumstances.

Another round of talks may take place in Europe this week, according to Witkoff. Both the US and Iran have put proposals on the table, but after more than a month of the talks facilitated by Oman, there is no current US proposal with Trump’s sign-off, sources said.

US intelligence agencies in February issued warnings that Israel will likely attempt to strike facilities key to Iran’s nuclear program this year, CNN previously reported.

It has “consistently been the Israeli position that the military option is the only option to stopping Iran’s military nuclear program,” one US official noted.

 

Britain suspends trade talks with Israel

According to Reuters, Britain on Tuesday paused free trade talks with Israel, summoned its ambassador, and announced further sanctions against West Bank settlers as its foreign minister condemned a "monstrous" military escalation in Gaza.

The Israeli military announced the start of a new operation last week and medics in Gaza say Israeli strikes have killed more than 500 people in the past eight days.

Israel has also blocked the entry of medical, food and fuel supplies into Gaza since the start of March, prompting international experts to warn of looming famine, although some trucks were allowed to enter on Monday.

Foreign Minister David Lammy said the offensive was "a dark new phase in this conflict", called for Israel to end the blockade of aid and condemned comments by finance minister Bezalel Smotrich on the possible cleansing and destruction of Gaza and relocation of its residents to third countries.

"It is extremism. It is dangerous. It is repellent. It is monstrous, and I condemn it in the strongest possible terms," a visibly angry Lammy told lawmakers, adding the operation in Gaza was "incompatible with the principles that underpin our bilateral relationship".

"Today, I'm announcing that we have suspended negotiations with this Israeli government on a new free trade agreement."

Israel said Britain had not advanced the trade talks, which started formally in 2022 under a previous Conservative British government, for some time.

"The British Mandate ended exactly 77 years ago," a spokesperson for its foreign ministry said. "External pressure will not divert Israel from its path in defending its existence and security against enemies who seek its destruction."

Lammy said the new offensive would not secure the release of remaining hostages and that January's ceasefire had shown the better path that Israel should follow.

Earlier Prime Minister Keir Starmer said he was "horrified by the escalation" after issuing a joint statement with France and Canada. Lammy said Britain would take further action if Israel pursued its military offensive.

 

 

 

Pakistan: Gen Asim Munir made Field Marshal

The federal cabinet on Tuesday approved the promotion of Chief of Army Staff (COAS) General Asim Munir to Field Marshal for his leadership in Operation Bunyanum Marsoos and the period of conflict against India known as Marka-i-Haq.

The military confrontation between India and Pakistan came as tensions over last month’s Pahalgam attack continued to build up. On the night of May 6-7, New Delhi launched a series of air strikes in Punjab and Azad Kashmir, resulting in civilian casualties. Islamabad responded by downing five Indian jets.

After intercepting drones sent by India and tit-for-tat strikes on each other’s airbases, it took American intervention on May 10, when tensions between the two countries peaked, for both sides to finally drop their guns as a ceasefire was reached.

India has since continued its aggressive posturing even as Pakistan has warned against any further military aggression and offered talks. Officials from both countries confirmed that the ceasefire does not have an expiry date, putting to rest the speculations that the truce would lapse this weekend unless renewed.

The rank of Field Marshal is the highest rank of armies built on the pattern of the British Army. General Mohammad Ayub Khan was conferred the rank by the presidential cabinet.

“The Government of Pakistan has approved the promotion of General Syed Asim Munir (Nishan-i-Imtiaz Military) to the rank of Field Marshal for ensuring the security of the country and defeating the enemy based on the high strategy and courageous leadership during Marka-i-Haq and Operation Bunyanum Marsoos,” the Prime Minister’s Office (PMO) said in a statement after a federal cabinet meeting chaired by Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif.

Retelling the events of the military conflict with India, the statement further said that COAS Munir led the army “with exemplary courage and determination and coordinated the war strategy and efforts of the armed forces in a comprehensive manner”.

 

 

Houthis announce blockade of Haifa port

Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthis announced on Monday what they called a "maritime blockade" on Israel's Haifa port in response to Israel's ongoing conflict in Gaza, reports Reuters

"All companies with ships present in or heading to this port are hereby notified that, as of the time of this announcement, the aforementioned port has been included in the list of targets," the group's spokesperson Yahya Saree said in a televised address.

The Houthis have continued to fire missiles at Israel including on Ben Gurion Airport near Tel Aviv in what they say is solidarity with Palestinians in Gaza, although they have agreed to halt attacks on US ships.

The missiles launched by the group on Israel were mostly intercepted.

Israel has carried out strikes in response, including one on May 06 that damaged Yemen's main airport in Sanaa and killed several people.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Britain, Canada, France threaten sanctions against Israel

The leaders of Britain, Canada and France threatened sanctions against Israel on Monday if it does not stop a renewed military offensive in Gaza and lift aid restrictions, piling further pressure on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, reports Reuters.

The Israeli military announced the start of a new operation on Friday, and earlier on Monday Netanyahu said Israel would take control of the whole of Gaza. International experts already have warned of looming famine.

"The Israeli Government's denial of essential humanitarian assistance to the civilian population is unacceptable and risks breaching International Humanitarian Law," a joint statement released by the British government said.

"We oppose any attempt to expand settlements in the West Bank ... We will not hesitate to take further action, including targeted sanctions."

In response, Netanyahu said, "The leaders in London, Ottawa and Paris are offering a huge prize for the genocidal attack on Israel on October 7 while inviting more such atrocities".

He said Israel will defend itself by just means until total victory is achieved, reiterating Israel's conditions to end the war which include the release of the remaining hostages and the demilitarization of the Gaza strip.

Israel has blocked the entry of medical, food and fuel supplies into Gaza since the start of March to try to pressure Hamas into freeing the hostages the Palestinian militant group took on October 07, 2023, when it attacked Israeli communities.

"We have always supported Israel's right to defend Israelis against terrorism. But this escalation is wholly disproportionate," the three Western leaders said in the joint statement. They said they would not stand by while Netanyahu's government pursued "these egregious actions."

They stated their support for efforts led by the United States, Qatar and Egypt for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza, and said they were committed to recognising a Palestinian state as part of a two-state solution to the conflict.

Hamas welcomed the joint statement describing the stance as "an important step" in the right direction toward restoring the principles of international law.

Israel's ground and air war has devastated Gaza, displacing nearly all its residents and killing more than 53,000 people, many of them civilians, according to Gaza health authorities.

The war began with the October 07, 2023, Hamas-led attack in which the militants killed about 1,200 people, mostly civilians, and seized 251 hostages, according to Israeli tallies.

 

Lifting US sanctions on Iran could crush Chinese teapot oil refineries

The possible lifting of US sanctions on Iran's oil exports could deal a fatal blow to independent Chinese refineries that have thrived by processing Tehran’s discounted crude, while also putting further downward pressure on oil prices, reports Reuters.

President Donald Trump has taken a dual-track strategy with Iran, applying a "maximum pressure" campaign of tightening economic sanctions, while simultaneously engaging in direct high-level talks over Tehran’s nuclear program. Last week, Trump indicated the sides were getting very close to a deal.

Of course, nuclear talks between Iran and Western powers have always been extremely complex – full of stops and starts – and Trump’s recent statements surrounding a potential deal include much hedging.

If there is a breakthrough deal, it would almost certainly include a repeal of many US economic restrictions on Iran’s oil industry, which would have a profound impact on global energy markets.

Strict US sanctions on Iran’s oil industry have been in place since Trump pulled out of an UN-backed nuclear deal in 2018. While sanctions have dented Tehran’s exports – the country’s major source of revenue – they have never succeeded in reducing exports to zero, as Trump vowed seven years ago.

Iranian exports reached 2.8 million barrels per day (bpd) in May 2018 and hit a low of just 150,000 bpd in May 2020, before steadily recovering to an average of around 1.65 million bpd so far in 2025, according to analytics firm Kpler.

Chinese privately owned refineries, commonly known as teapots, have been the main buyers of Iranian crude in recent years, attracted by the heavy discounts. Concentrated in the eastern Shandong province, these small independent refineries have capacity of around 4 million bpd, or roughly one-fifth of China’s total refining capacity.

Large volumes of sanctioned crude have made their way into China in recent years through a complex web of shell companies and a so-called "dark fleet" of tankers that transfer oil between different vessels to obscure the origin.

The precise total volumes involved in this trade are unclear as official Chinese customs data suggests the country does not import any Iranian oil. However, Kpler, using ship tracking and satellite technology, estimates that China imported 77% of Iran’s 1.6 million bpd of exports last year.

Iranian production could also likely be ramped up quickly.

Its oil sector has proven surprisingly resilient in the face of mounting Western sanctions, with crude oil production averaging 3.3 million bpd in 2024, according to OPEC data. Production could be ramped up by 500,000 bpd within six months of lifting sanctions.

Not only would the rapid return of Iranian crude to global markets likely put further downward pressure on oil prices that have fallen from a high of US$82 a barrel in January to around US$65 today, but it would also deal a heavy blow to China’s teapot refineries.

These independent outfits typically have very slim profit margins because most run at utilization rates of around 50% or less due to overcapacity in the sector and restrictions on exporting fuels overseas.

Plants have faced fierce competition in recent years, and those that have survived have done so largely because they have been able to generate lucrative profits by processing cheap Iranian as well as Venezuelan feedstock.

The removal of US sanctions on Iranian crude could therefore undermine their business models, meaning many plants would likely have to sharply pare back operations or, in some cases, shut down entirely.

A drop in output from Chinese teapots, in turn, could provide a boost to large state-owned Chinese refineries that will pick up the slack in the domestic market.

More broadly, a decline in global refining capacity should boost the sector at a time of increasing uncertainty over demand for fuels such as gasoline and diesel due to the ongoing trade war and energy transition.

The return of Iran into global oil markets would create headaches for many – not least Saudi Arabia, which is in the middle of a price war – but the biggest losers would likely be the independent Chinese refiners. And the biggest beneficiary, outside of Iran itself, would be the refining industry – whether or not that’s what Trump has in mind.

 

 

Pakistan: Encouraging IMF Staff Level Report

The recently released IMF staff level report praises Pakistan’s strong program implementation and stresses the need to prioritize reforms going forward.

These include reforms to strengthen competition and productivity, improve SOEs and public services, increase energy sector viability, broaden the tax base, and build climate resilience.

Several new structural benchmarks have been introduced, which will impact multiple sectors such as Energy and Autos, and these may be part of the upcoming FY26 Budget.

Pakistan’s macroeconomic recovery has been cemented by growing foreign exchange reserves and sharply lower inflation, enabling the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) to halve the policy rate to 11.0%.

GDP growth in FY26 is expected to reach the long-term average, and modestly accelerate thereafter. The current account is expected to remain in control, aided by lower oil prices and strong remittances.

This may limit pressure on the PKR, even as the IMF has encouraged a more flexible exchange rate.

Containing the fiscal deficit, as ever, will likely prove to be the most challenging. The projected improvement on the fiscal deficit is contingent on tax collection, including the effective implementation of the newly introduced Agriculture Income Tax laws.

That said, climate-related funding by the IMF (US$1.4 billion over the course of the program) can be used for budgetary support, which is a positive. 

As of December 2024, Pakistan had met all seven quantitative performance criteria and five of eight indicative targets. Compliance with structural benchmarks was also generally strong.

Important structural benchmarks that have already been met include approval of the National Fiscal Pact, and introduction of Agriculture Income Tax laws at the provincial level. However, others are still pending including eliminating captive power use in the gas sector. The IMF has now introduced additional structural benchmarks.