Can US-Iran talks yield immediate results?

The outcome of today's US-Iran talks in Oman remains uncertain, given the complex backdrop of regional tensions and divergent positions.​ It is necessary to understand the key factors influencing the talks.

Regional Instability:

The Middle East is experiencing heightened tensions, including conflicts in Gaza and Lebanon, Iranian-Israeli missile exchanges, Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping lanes, and the collapse of Syria's government. These developments have created a volatile environment that complicates diplomatic efforts.

US Stance:

President Donald Trump's administration has emphasizes that preventing Iran from developing nuclear weapons is a non-negotiable "red line." While the US demands the dismantlement of Iran's nuclear program, it remains open to compromise, focusing on trust-building measures and verifiable compliance.

Iranian Position:

Iran has shown a willingness to engage in indirect negotiations through Oman's mediation, despite Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's public rejection of talks. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has indicated that indirect negotiations are feasible and have historical precedent, suggesting a potential openness to dialogue under certain conditions.

Israel the Spoiler

Israel has consistently expressed strong opposition to US-Iran nuclear negotiations, often taking actions that complicate diplomatic efforts. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has repeatedly warned that Israel will do "everything" to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons, viewing any potential deal as a threat to regional stability.

In recent developments, as the US and Iran prepare for talks in Oman, Israel has intensified its diplomatic engagements. Israeli officials, including Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer and National Security Advisor Tzachi Hanegbi, have held high-level meetings with US counterparts to discuss Iran's nuclear program and express concerns over the negotiations.

While Israel remains skeptical of Iran's intentions, some Israeli officials have indicated that they might not oppose a new deal, provided it effectively prevents Iran from developing nuclear weapons. Nevertheless, Israel's firm stance and active involvement underscore its influential role in shaping the discourse around US-Iran nuclear talks.​

Prospects for Progress

While both nations have expressed interest in resolving tensions, significant challenges remain. The US seeks to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons, whereas Iran demands sanctions relief and economic engagement. The success of the talk hinges on the ability of both parties to find common ground and build mutual trust.​ While the talks in Oman represent a critical opportunity for diplomacy, the path to a meaningful agreement is fraught with obstacles. The coming days will be pivotal in determining whether these discussions can lead to substantive progress.

 

 

Europeans pledge €21 billion military support for Ukraine

Ukraine's key allies from across the globe have announced €21 billion in new military support at a meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group (UDCG) held in NATO headquarters in Brussels on Friday. The group, once exclusively led by the United States but now led by Germany and Britain, comprises 51 nations and partners, reports Euronews.

German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius said, today's announcement, including Germany's pledge of €11 billion until 2029, is a record boost in military funding for Ukraine.

The €21 billion also includes the Britain's £4.5 billion commitment for this year, which the country’s defense secretary John Healey described as its highest contribution yet.

Ukrainian Defence Minister Rustem Umerov warned Russia is "ramping up military production", and said Europe was now "taking the lead in security assistance for which we are thankful to Britain and Europe".

US Secretary of State Pete Hegseth participated online, and Umerov told reporters the US was continuing its military assistance to his country.

The lack of air defense capabilities remains a huge problem for Ukraine, as Russia has sent over 10,000 glide bombs into Ukraine since March, and 100 attack drones every day.

"Air defense is a problem all over the world – we are doing as much as we can as fast as we can," said Pistorius.

PSX benchmark index declines by 3.32%WoW

Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) remained highly volatile throughout the week ended on April 11, 2025, with investors reacting to the US imposing reciprocal tariffs on all the countries, 29% tariffs on Pakistan. This eroded investor confidence causing KSE-100 index to fall by 3,938 points or 3.32%WoW during the week, closing in at 114,853 points.

On the first trading day, KSE-100 fell by as much as 7.3% with a market halt in order to control volatility, with the index recovering by day end, closing in at negative 3.3% by day end. However, with the US changing its stance on the tariffs imposed by announcing a 90-day pause on tariffs on all countries, keeping 10% base tariffs intact, except for China, KSE-100 index posted an opening of 2,941pts, up 2.58% on Thursday. Last day of the week once again saw a bearish session due to escalation of dispute between US and China, with the tariffs on China being 145% by the US and tariffs on US being 125% by China.

Expectation of further cuts in policy rate resulted in Commercial Banks eroding 1,399 points from the index. Falling global oil prices, with Brent down by 3.8%WoW, negatively impacted the E&P Sector.

Average daily trading volume was up by 14%WoW to 557 million shares, as compared to 488 million shares traded a week ago.

ADB revised Pakistan’s GDP growth forecast for FY25/FY26 to 2.5%/3.0% and inflation forecast for FY25/FY26 to 6.0%/5.8%, respectively.

Foreign exchange reserves held by State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) were up by US$28 million to US$10.7 billion as of April 04, 2025.

Other major news flow during the week included: 1) Cement Sales decreased by 9.5%YoY, 2) Petroleum sales increased 5%YoY, 3) Auto Sales declined 8%YoY, 4) Pakistan delegation to visit United States for tariff discussion, and 5) GoP raises PKR427 billion in PIB auction.

Pharmaceuticals, Cement, and Textile Composite were amongst the top performing sectors, while laggards included Fertilizer, Textile Weaving, and Technology and Communication.

Flow wise, barring debt, major net selling was recorded by FIPI, Individuals and Mutual Funds with a net sell of US$19.4 million. Companies absorbed most of the selling with a net buy of US$19.3 million (including KOHC buyback of US$16.5 million).

Top performing scrips of the week were: PGLC, TGL, GLAXO, PSX, and LUCK, while top laggards included: EFERT, SRVI, PPL, ENGROH, and UBL. 

 According to AKD Securities, lower oil prices and favorable standing among exporting peers amid reciprocal tariffs would support the economy.

The benchmark index is anticipated to sustain its upward trajectory, primarily driven by strong earnings in fertilizers, sustained ROEs in banks, and improving cash flows of E&Ps and OMCs, benefiting from falling interest rates and economic stability. Top pick of the brokerage house include: OGDC, PPL, PSO, FFC, ENGROH, MEBL, MCB, HBL, LUCK, FCCL, INDU, ILP and SYS.

Saudia rejects displacement of Palestinians

Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan on Friday rejected any proposal involving the forced displacement of Palestinians. He stressed that the residents of Gaza are deprived of the basic necessities of life.

Speaking at the meeting of the Ministerial Committee for International Action to End the War on Gaza, held in Antalya, Turkey, Prince Faisal reaffirmed Saudi Arabia’s refusal of any scenario that includes removing Palestinians from their land, reports the Saudi Gazette.

He criticized attempts to link the entry of humanitarian aid into Gaza to a ceasefire, and urged the international community to intensify efforts to secure unimpeded aid delivery.

Prince Faisal reiterated the Kingdom’s support for ongoing ceasefire negotiations and commended the mediation efforts led by Egypt and Qatar.

A joint communiqué issued after the meeting denounced any form of forced displacement or expulsion of Palestinians from Gaza, the West Bank, or East Jerusalem.

The statement supported the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees (UNRWA) and encouraged the unification of Gaza and the West Bank, including East Jerusalem, under the Palestinian Authority.

The committee also called for an immediate and permanent ceasefire in accordance with UN resolutions and condemned Israeli violations of international law in the occupied territories, including settlement expansion, home demolitions, and land confiscations.

US lawmakers question Trump's Iran talks

According to The Hill, President Trump is set to open direct talks with Iran this weekend in a high-stakes push for Tehran to give up its nuclear weapons ambitions, raising a chorus of questions and concerns from lawmakers in both parties. 

Iran on Monday said the “high-level talks,” set to start in Oman on Saturday, would be indirect, seeming to contradict Trump, who said earlier Monday, “We’re having direct talks with Iran.”

It’s also unclear if the president is looking to limit Iran’s nuclear capabilities — similar to the Obama-era agreement he trashed in 2018 — or demand the full destruction of its facilities.

Rep. August Pfluger, chair of the influential Republican Study Committee, said anything short of a nuclear disbandment was unacceptable. 

“A full commitment that they, not just when Trump is president, but whoever follows President Trump is there, that there is a firm commitment, and we know, we can verify, and there’s a complete dismantlement of their nuclear enterprises,” he told The Hill.

The uncertainty over Trump’s endgame has strained relations with Israel, which is wary of any US engagement with Iran, a sentiment shared by many on Capitol Hill. 

“I worry a little bit that this seems to be done, almost going around Israel,” said Sen. Mark Warner , the ranking member of the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence.

“I just worry that with the complete disruption of most of our alliances, I think our negotiating position is weakened,” he added.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called for the full dismantling of Iran’s nuclear program while sitting next to Trump in the Oval Office on Monday, saying he wants to see the “Libya model” applied to Israel’s top adversary.  

Trump has warned, “Iran is going to be in great danger” if the talks fail. And Netanyahu has long been mulling an assault on Iran’s nuclear facilities — though such a major move would be unlikely without some level of US backing.

The fact the talks are happening at all signals that pragmatic voices in Trump’s ear are winning out over Iran hawks, at least for the moment. 

 

Europeans sidelined in US-Iran nuclear talks

Washington's decision not to coordinate with European nations about its negotiations with Iran on Saturday will reduce its leverage and make US and Israeli military action against Tehran ultimately more likely, reports Reuters.

The United States did not tell European countries about the nuclear talks in Oman before President Donald Trump announced them on Tuesday, even though they hold a key card on the possible reimposition of U.N. sanctions on Tehran, three European diplomats said.

"The United States is going to need a coordinated diplomatic strategy with its European allies going into these negotiations with Iran," said Blaise Misztal, vice president for policy at the Jewish Institute for National Security of America.

That coordination is "crucial to making sure that there is maximum pressure and any diplomatic option has a chance of success," Misztal said.

Trump, who restored a "maximum pressure" campaign on Tehran in February, on Wednesday repeated threats to use military force against Iran if it didn't halt its nuclear program and said Israel would be "the leader of that."

The West suspects Iran is pursuing nuclear weapons, which it denies. The threat of renewed sanctions is intended to pressure Tehran into concessions, but detailed discussions on strategy have yet to take place with the Americans, the diplomats said.

Because the United States quit a 2015 nuclear accord with Iran, it cannot initiate its mechanism for reimposing sanctions, called snapback, at the United Nations Security Council.

That makes Britain, Germany and France, known as the E3, the only deal participants capable of and interested in pursuing snapback, so it is crucial that Washington align with these allies, analysts said. Israel, Iran's arch-enemy, has already lobbied the E3 to initiate it.

According to the three diplomats, the E3 told Iran they would trigger the snapback mechanism by the end of June. Iran responded that doing so would mean harsh consequences and a review of its nuclear doctrine, the diplomats said.

"The E3 do not trust the United States because it is taking initiatives without them being consulted," said a senior European diplomat.

Trump withdrew the US in 2018 from the nuclear deal with Iran also signed by Russia and China. The accord curbed Iran's nuclear activities in return for sanctions relief. Russia opposes restoring sanctions.

Under the nuclear accord, participants can initiate the 30-day snapback process if they are unable to resolve accusations of Iranian violations through a dispute-resolution mechanism. But that opportunity expires on October 18 when the accord ends.

Since the US exited the deal in 2018, Iran has far surpassed its uranium enrichment limits, according to the International Atomic Energy Agency. Tehran is producing stocks of fissile purity well above what Western powers say is justifiable for a civilian energy program and close to weapons grade.

The US administration's approach echoes Trump's first term in office, when he also prioritized unilateral talks with Iran, and with his stance on the war in Ukraine, where Washington has begun direct talks with Moscow, sidelining Europeans.

European officials have held some meetings with US counterparts but said they were not sufficiently in-depth.

Even a meeting on Iran with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio on the sidelines of a NATO foreign ministers meeting a week before Trump's announcement was difficult to arrange, three E3 officials said.

The British, French and German foreign ministries did not respond directly when asked if they had been made aware of the Oman talks ahead of time.

"We remain committed to taking every diplomatic step to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons, including through snapback if necessary," a British foreign ministry spokesperson said.

France's Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot said tersely on Wednesday that the French "take note with interest" the talks.

Having negotiated with Iran as a trio as far back as 2003 on the nuclear issue, the European countries consider their role essential to a solution. In the 2015 deal, a key carrot for Iran was being able to trade with Europe.

The Europeans have helped the United States pressure Iran in recent months, including at the UN atomic watchdog and with new sanctions on Iran over its ballistic missile program, detention of foreign citizens and support for Russia in the war against Ukraine.

During the US policy vacuum after Trump won the election but before he took office, the Europeans tried to take the initiative by holding exploratory talks with Iran that began in September and have continued.

The E3 said that was necessary because time was running out before the 2015 deal expires on October 18, 2025. They have tried to sound out whether new restrictions, albeit narrower than those agreed in 2015, could be negotiated before then.

Diplomats said that in those talks, Iranian officials have often quizzed their counterparts on the new US administration.

"Iran believes that talks with the E3 and other parties to the nuclear deal can help defuse tensions over its nuclear program and can be complementary to talks with the US," said an Iranian official.

 

 

 

Iran Talks Spark Bipartisan Concerns on Capitol Hill

US President Donald Trump’s decision to engage in high stakes talks with Iran this weekend has raised concerns across party lines on Capitol Hill. The talks, reportedly set to begin in Oman, are framed as direct by Trump, but Iran claims they’ll be indirect. Uncertainty surrounds Trump’s objectives—whether he seeks full nuclear dismantlement or limitations similar to the Obama-era JCPOA, which he withdrew from in 2018.

Rep. August Pfluger insists that anything short of a complete nuclear disbandment is unacceptable. Lawmakers also question the potential sidelining of Israel, a key US ally, and Prime Minister Netanyahu has called for the “Libya model” of total dismantlement. Tensions rise as Netanyahu considers action against Iran’s facilities, though such a move would likely need US backing.

Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff has taken over the Iran file and advocates for a robust verification program to ensure Iran’s compliance. However, skepticism remains high among lawmakers. Sen. Tommy Tuberville supports a verifiable deal but doubts its feasibility, while Sen. Roger Wicker warns against trusting Iran.

Iran's nuclear capability has advanced significantly since the JCPOA. Experts now say Iran could fuel a bomb within weeks. However, US intelligence maintains Iran has not yet chosen to weaponize its nuclear material.

Despite its nuclear progress, Iran has lost leverage. Its regional influence has waned due to conflicts with Israel and economic decline under US sanctions. The Iranian currency has plummeted, inflation is high, and the government struggles to provide basic services.

Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi views the upcoming talks as a genuine diplomatic opening, citing recent communication with the US. He also appealed to Trump’s business instincts, suggesting a potential “trillion-dollar” opportunity through cooperation.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio emphasized that Iran must never obtain nuclear weapons or threaten regional stability. Yet Iran signals it may accept JCPOA-like terms for sanctions relief, though it rejects broader US demands. As both sides lower expectations, Iran insists military threats must be removed for diplomacy to succeed.