Thursday, 21 November 2024

Arrest warrants for Netanyahu and Gallant

After months of deliberation, the International Criminal Court on Thursday formally issued arrest warrants for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, former Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, and Hamas leader Mohammed Diab Ibrahim Al-Masri.

The ICC's Pre-Trial Chamber I, a panel of judges, said in a statement that it unanimously rejected Israel's challenges to arrest warrant applications submitted in May by Karim Khan, the chief prosecutor at the ICC.

"The Chamber issued warrants of arrest for two individuals, Benjamin Netanyahu and Yoav Gallant, for crimes against humanity and war crimes committed from at least October 08, 2023 until at least May 20, 2024, the day the Prosecution filed the applications for warrants of arrest," the panel said, specifically alleging "the war crime of starvation as a method of warfare" and "the crimes against humanity of murder, persecution, and other inhumane acts."

The announcement came as the official death toll from Israel's war on the Gaza Strip surpassed 44,000.

The ICC judges said they "found reasonable grounds to believe" that Netanyahu and Gallant "intentionally and knowingly deprived the civilian population in Gaza of objects indispensable to their survival, including food, water, and medicine and medical supplies, as well as fuel and electricity."

The panel also said it "found reasonable grounds to believe that no clear military need or other justification under international humanitarian law could be identified for the restrictions placed on access for humanitarian relief operations."

"Finally, the Chamber assessed that there are reasonable grounds to believe that Netanyahu and Gallant bear criminal responsibility as civilian superiors for the war crime of intentionally directing attacks against the civilian population of Gaza," the judges added.

The panel issued a separate statement announcing an arrest warrant for Hamas leader Mohammed Diab Ibrahim Al-Masri, saying it found "reasonable grounds to believe" he is "responsible for the crimes against humanity of murder; extermination; torture; and rape and other form of sexual violence; as well as the war crimes of murder, cruel treatment, torture; taking hostages; outrages upon personal dignity; and rape and other forms of sexual violence."

Neither the US nor Israel recognize the ICC's jurisdiction, and the decision is expected to spark backlash from both countries.

Over the summer, in response to Khan's May application for arrest warrants, the Republican-led US House of Representatives passed legislation that would impose sanctions on the ICC. More than 40 House Democrats supported the measure, which has not received a vote in the narrowly Democratic Senate.

British Member of Parliament Jeremy Corbyn, the former leader of the Labour Party, called the ICC arrest warrants "long overdue" and urged the government of Keir Starmer to "immediately endorse this decision."

"That is the bare minimum," Corbyn wrote on social media. "Will the UK government now, finally, honor its international obligations to prevent genocide and end all arms sales to Israel?"

 

 

Wednesday, 20 November 2024

Trade in Southeast Asia under Trump

Southeast Asia appears vulnerable to Donald Trump's threat of universal tariffs and a renewed trade war with China. Five of the region's six largest economies run trade surpluses with the United States. According to Nikkei Asia, all is not lost for Southeast Asia. Exports and economic growth would take a hit in the short term, but the region can reap rewards from trade diversion and substitution and might even take a tougher stance against Chinese firms' anticompetitive practices.

Geopolitically neutral, the area saw an increase in gross trade with both China and the US between 2017 and 2020 during the first Trump presidency. Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand won big as companies from China, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and the US relocated from China or duplicated their manufacturing bases in Southeast Asia to avoid US tariffs. 

Here's what you need to know: 

What is Trump's tariff threat?

The objective of Trump's stated trade policy is to return manufacturing jobs to the US and disentangle its supply chains from China. Trump and his advisers view China's trade advantage as unfairly derived from currency manipulation, intellectual property theft and forced technology transfers. 

During his first term, Trump used executive powers to impose tariffs of up to 25% on US$250 billion worth of electronics, machinery and consumer goods imports from China. Beijing retaliated with similar measures against US agricultural, automotive and technology exports. 

Now, Trump has proposed a 60% duty on all Chinese goods entering the US and tariffs of up to 20% on imports from everywhere else. That would be done with a mix of executive and legislative tools.

How bad could it be for Southeast Asia? 

Nearly 40% of Cambodian exports go to US, the largest exposure in ASEAN, in terms of proportion of total exports, followed by Vietnam at 27.4% and Thailand at 17%, according to Oxford Economics, putting all three at particular risk. Thanavath Phonvichai, president of the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce, said Thailand's economy might take a 160.5 billion baht ($4.6 billion) hit if Trump follows through on his promises.

Vietnam has the fourth-largest trade surplus in the world with the US The imbalance grew rapidly as Chinese, Taiwanese and South Korean firms used Vietnam to bypass Trump-era tariffs. Vietnam's fortunes could just as quickly turn, especially if the US continues to classify it as a "nonmarket economy," which tends to entail higher tariffs. 

Uncertainty about Trump's tariffs could prompt firms to pause or stop investment plans in Southeast Asia. US companies accounted for about half of the US$9.5 billion in fixed asset investments in Singapore last year, according to the city-state's Economic Development Board. Prime Minister Lawrence Wong was quick to remind Trump in a congratulatory letter that the US has maintained "a consistent trade surplus" with Singapore. 

Any blow to the Chinese economy will spill over to ASEAN countries that depend on Chinese consumption, export demand and tourism. Weaker appetite for Chinese goods will affect Southeast Asian suppliers of inputs to Chinese producers. Indonesia, Southeast Asia's largest economy, would suffer most because of its 24.2% export exposure to China, mainly of commodities.

Chinese exporters unable to send their wares to the US might divert them to Southeast Asia, where governments have fielded complaints from local producers hurt by dumping of metals, textiles and consumer goods. 

What is the upside for Southeast Asia? 

Southeast Asia's current manufacturing boom began because of the trade war. Analysts expect that, in time, trade substitution and diversion will outweigh the hit to growth. 

"We think an even greater pushback on China could drive more supply chain diversion, with Chinese businesses trading and investing more within Asia," said Jayden Vantarakis, head of ASEAN research at Macquarie Capital. 

The electric vehicle factories that some Southeast Asian governments aggressively courted could provide an economic buffer. "There is also EV demand growing outside the US, so I think there may actually be a net benefit to Indonesia. What will happen is that smaller countries that are trying to become carbon neutral, especially since petrol prices are increasingly expensive, will try to take over the supply and buy more electric cars," said Sumit Agarwal, professor at the National University of Singapore Business School. 

Trump's promised tariffs may provide ASEAN governments with the impetus to impose antidumping tariffs on Chinese goods, as Thailand did with rolled steel this year. Tighter US rules of origin could also give governments an opportunity to ensure that more high-value parts production and assembly are done locally. 

What will happen to Southeast Asian currencies and markets?

Trump's tariffs may ease the pressure on Southeast Asian central banks to further loosen monetary policy.

"Essentially, Trump's victory is inflationary for the world due to his planned tariffs, so the global monetary normalization or easing cycle likely won't be as sharp as previously thought, including in the Philippines," said Miguel Chanco, chief emerging Asia economist at Britain-based Pantheon Macroeconomics. 

Chanco told Nikkei Asia that Southeast Asian currencies will not strengthen as previously expected, due in part to the markets re-pricing the pace of easing by the US Federal Reserve and therefore continuing dollar strength. 

Among the six major Southeast Asian economies, the Thai baht and Malaysian ringgit have been the worst performers since Trump's victory, declining 3.2% and 2.9%, respectively, against the US dollar through Wednesday. 

Thai securities house InnovestX recommended stocks that will benefit from the strong dollar and weak baht. These include companies with significant export revenue like CP Foods and Delta Electronics, or which are involved in tourism, such as Airports of Thailand, property developers and hoteliers. 

How should Southeast Asian economies prepare? 

Governments are already taking steps to reduce their overreliance on either the US or China by deepening relationships with other countries and regions, and stressing their neutrality.

The Philippines sees its trade agreements with the likes of South Korea as a buffer against US shocks. "We want to see many more of these ... bilateral and multilateral agreements, so that we can open up many more opportunities," said National Economic and Development Authority Secretary Arsenio Balisacan. 

Former Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra has suggested, governments could do more to support local companies investing in the US and other diversified manufacturing bases, as Japan did in 2020 with a US$2 billion program known as the "China exit subsidy." 

That support could include reducing operating and logistics costs, providing trade risk insurance and removing barriers to trade. Amending relevant laws to allow transshipment at Laem Chabang port, Thailand's main export channel, would be an invaluable boost to Thai exporters, said Kongrit Chantrik, executive director of the Thai National Shippers' Council. 

Southeast Asian economies should also focus on building resilience by strengthening intra-ASEAN trade, according to Jaideep Singh, analyst at the Institute of Strategic & International Studies, Malaysia.

"There should be efforts to promote economic integration through reduced non-tariff measures, improved trade facilitation and better coordination of regional value chains," he said.

Similarly, countries like Vietnam could "win brownie points" from Trump by buying aircraft engines or liquefied natural gas from the US, according to VinaCapital chief economist Michael Kokalari. 

But he added that fears are "hyperbolic" about trade under Trump, who visited Vietnam twice in his first term. There are no "significant reservations from American consumers to purchase 'made in Vietnam' products," he wrote. On the contrary, the US cannot re-shore everything, so "Vietnam may be viewed as helpful in [weaning] the US off of low-end China-made goods."

 

US ethanol production touches record high

Fuel ethanol production was up nearly 1% the week ending November 08, 2024 setting a record high at 1.113 barrels per day, according to data released by the US Energy Information Administration, stocks were up slightly, and exports were up 32%. The previous record for fuel ethanol production was set in July 2024 at 1.109 million barrels per day. 

The 1.113 million barrels per day of production reported for the week ending November 08 was up 8,000 barrels per day when compared to the 1.105 million barrels per day of production reported for the previous week. When compared to the same week of last year, production for the week ending November 08 was up 66,000 barrels per day. 

Weekly ending stocks of fuel ethanol were reported at 22.039 million barrels for the week ended November 08, 2024 up 19,000 barrels when compared to the 22.02 million barrels of stocks reported for the previous week. When compared to the same week of last year, stocks for the week ending November 08 were up 1.085 million barrels. 

Fuel ethanol exports averaged 144,000 barrels per day, up 35,000 barrels per day when compared to the 109,000 barrels per day of exports reported for the previous week. When compared to the same week of last year, exports for the week were up 59,000 barrels per day.

 

 

Tuesday, 19 November 2024

Pakistan-Netherlands business collaboration

Federal Minister for Finance and Revenue, Senator Muhammad Aurangzeb, met with Henny de Vries, Ambassador of the Kingdom of the Netherlands to Pakistan discussed ways to strengthen existing economic and trade ties.

The two countries are exploring avenues to deepen their bilateral relations, with a focus on key sectors including mining, IT, oil and gas, agriculture, dairy, and farm production

During the meeting, various aspects of the longstanding friendship and bilateral cooperation between Pakistan and the Netherlands were discussed and priority areas like mining, IT, oil and gas, agriculture, dairy, and farm production for further business collaborations were identified.

The Minister highlighted the government’s economic plan and reform agenda for promoting economic growth and ensuring fiscal sustainability.

He mentioned the economic gains achieved over the last 14 months and reiterated the government’s resolve to stay the course to move the economy on the path to sustained, export-led growth.

He also highlighted the challenges faced by Pakistan on climate front, and its efforts for climate financing and building capacity to ensure climate resiliency through sustainable solutions.

Ambassador de Vries reciprocated the sentiments on strengthening bilateral ties and further expanding cooperation in various fields, including sports.

She mentioned the Dutch cricket team was scheduled to visit Pakistan early next year to play matches and learn from Pakistan’s cricketing prowess.

She also appreciated the ongoing structural reforms in major economic and financial sectors and assured her country’s support for Pakistan’s trade and commerce with European Union.

 

Damages caused by Hezbollah are heavy

The western media publishes news indicating Israeli attacks causing huge losses in Lebanon. Today, allow us to share some of the losses western media and Israel are shy in admitting.

Hezbollah has retaliated to the latest Israeli aggression by bombarding Haifa with missiles and rockets overnight on Saturday and Sunday. It attacked a group of military bases in Haifa and the Carmel region.

These included:

1- Haifa Technical Base (affiliated with the Israeli Air Force, housing a training college for preparing Air Force technicians).

2- Haifa Naval Base (affiliated with the Israeli Navy, housing a fleet of missile boats and submarines).

3- Stella Maris Base (a strategic base for maritime surveillance and control along the northern coastline).

4- Tirat Carmel Base (housing the regiment and battalion of the northern region’s transport and a logistical naval base).

5- For the first time, Nesher Base (a gas station affiliated with the “Israeli” military).

Footage shows widespread devastation in the industrial Israeli hub. The Israeli military reported a number of casualties. 

The Hezbollah attacks also led to a power outage in the city. Verified videos circulating on social media show several areas of Haifa in the dark without electricity. 

Israeli media reported a massive missile strike launched from southern Lebanon towards Haifa and its surroundings making direct impact with air raid sirens blaring non-stop. 

On Sunday, Hezbollah waged more operations “in support of the steadfast Palestinian people in the Gaza Strip, backing their valiant and honorable resistance, and in defense of Lebanon and its people.” 

These included: “Operations targeting Israeli attempts to advance along the Lebanese-Palestinian borders, intercepting enemy drones and warplanes, and striking Israeli military sites, bases, deployments, and settlements in northern and deep occupied Palestine.”

Hezbollah struck the Israeli enemy gatherings with rockets on the outskirts of Khiam as the occupation forces (IOF) failed once again in their attempts to advance. 

Footage purportedly showed smoke rising from vehicles belonging to the Israeli occupation forces igniting on fire during clashes in Wati al-Khiam, east of the town of Khiam in southern Lebanon.

Hezbollah announced an Israeli army gathering was attacked on the southern outskirts of Khiam town with a rocket barrage.  

There Israeli Merkava tanks were spotted, being forced to withdraw from the outskirts of Khiam at high speed. 

The IOF reportedly reached its deepest point in Lebanon since the attempted ground invasion in late September before pulling back after fierce battles with Hezbollah fighters.

Troops temporarily took control of a strategic hill in the southern Lebanese village of Chamaa, five kilometers from the border, the state-run National News Agency said.

The agency noted the IOF was later pushed back from the position.

Hezbollah announced its fighters targeted an Israeli Merkava tank on the eastern outskirts of Chamaa with a guided missile, causing it to burn and resulting in casualties among its crew.

Meanwhile, the resistance targeted the “Krayot area north of the occupied city of Haifa with a rocket barrage” on Sunday. 

Hezbollah also attacked the Ma’aleh Golani Barracks (the headquarters of the Hermon Brigade 810) with a rocket barrage.  

Despite the heavy Israeli bombardment of the Lebanese border region in the south, Hezbollah is launching more long-range missiles. 

 

 

Biden accused of trying to start WWIII

Marjorie Taylor Greene and Donald Trump Jr have accused President Joe Biden of trying to start World War III after he gave Ukraine the green light to use US-supplied long-range supersonic missiles to strike inside Russia for the first time.

The Biden administration’s granting of Kyiv’s request to use the ATACMS missiles outside of its own borders marks a change in stance in the president’s final days in office, before President-elect Donald Trump – who has indicated he will limit US support for Ukraine – returns to the White House in January.

The MAGA representative and Donald Trump’s eldest son lashed out at Biden’s decision in fiery posts on X, Independent reported

“On his way out of office, Joe Biden is dangerously trying to start WWIII by authorizing Ukraine the use of US long-range missiles into Russia,” Greene, who is among the Republicans who want to cut US aid to Ukraine, posted on Sunday.

“The American people gave a mandate on November 05 against these exact America last decisions and do not want to fund or fight foreign wars.

She concluded, “We want to fix our own problems. Enough of this, it must stop.”

Trump Jr – who last week told Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky that his “allowance” is up now that Trump is returning to the White House – accused Biden of attempting to tarnish his father’s legacy by placing the US on the brink of conflict before he takes office.

“The Military Industrial Complex seems to want to make sure they get World War III going before my father has a chance to create peace and save lives,” Trump Jr said.

“Gotta lock in those $Trillions. Life be damned!!! Imbeciles!”

The move marks a major policy shift after Russia’s warning that it would regard Kyiv’s authorization to use US-made missiles “as a major escalation.” Russian President Vladimir Putin previously told Ukraine’s Western allies that such a move would represent NATO’s “direct participation” in the war.

At least two Russian legislators also warned that the US move risks another world war.

“I have a great hope that [Donald] Trump will overcome this decision if this has been made because they are seriously risking the start of World War III which is not in anybody’s interest,” said Maria Butina, a member of Putin’s party who was previously convicted of acting as an unregistered foreign agent of Russia within the US.

In an interview with Russia’s state news agency TASS, Vladimir Dzhabarov, first deputy head of the Russian upper house’s international affairs committee, described Biden’s decision as “unprecedented” while also warning of a possible global conflict. Dzhabarov said such an action would receive a swift response.

Biden’s decision comes with just 64 days left in the White House.

Trump meanwhile has criticized the Biden administration for spending more than $64bn in providing security assistance to Ukraine since Russia’s invasion of the nation in February 2022, according to figures from the US Department of State.

He has pledged to limit American support for Ukraine and end the war as soon as possible, even claiming on the campaign trail that he could do so in just a single day. It is unclear how he plans to do so.

He has pledged to limit American support for Ukraine and end the war as soon as possible, even claiming on the campaign trail that he could do so in just a single day. It is unclear how he plans to do so.

 

Sunday, 17 November 2024

British farmers unite against Starmer

Hundreds of British protesters opposing changes to inheritance tax rules for farms gathered outside the Welsh Labour conference as the prime minister defended his government's recent Budget measures, the BBC reported.

Farming unions have said the planned changes will have "disastrous" consequences.

Keir Starmer told the conference in Llandudno, Conwy, he would defend the Budget "all day long" for taking "tough decisions that were necessary to stabilize our economy".

Dozens of tractors and farm vehicles were parked on the prom outside the conference at Venue Cymru.

Signs reading "Enough is enough" and "No Farmers No Food" were held up as conference attendees entered the building.

Conwy County farmer and broadcaster Gareth Wyn Jones said he and others were taking part in the protest to "air their frustrations".

He described the changes to inheritance tax rules as a "massive bombshell" that would affect "thousands" of farming families.

Meanwhile, one of the organizers Gareth Wyn Jones, a Welsh farmer and YouTuber, told Sky News that farmers will deliver Starmer a letter which starts "'don't bite the hand that feeds you".

The UK premier was accused of “running out the backdoor like a rat” to avoid scores of angry farmers outside the conference.