PSX benchmark index posts 0.55%WoW gains

During the week ended on September 13, 2024, the benchmark index of Pakistan Stock Exchange experienced volatility early in the week but gained momentum as investors anticipated a rate cut.

On Thursday, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) surprised with a 200bps reduction amid a higher than expected fall in inflation, lowering the policy rate to 17.5%. This move boosted investor sentiment.

The IMF spokesperson revealed that Pakistan has secured necessary financing assurances from development partners and will be discussed at the executive board meeting scheduled for September 25, 2024, further enhancing investor confidence. The rate cut invigorated the cyclical sector, resulting in the benchmark index closing at 79,333 points, a gain of 435 points, up 0.55%WoW.

However, a mini budget is on the cards to generate an additional PKR650 billion in tax collections, if FBR fails to meet its collection targets.

Workers remittance for August 2024 were reported at US$2.94 billion, up 40.5%YoY.

The average daily traded volume declined to 606.74 million share from 675.46 million shares a week ago, down 10.2%WoW.

On the currency front, PKR largely remained stable against the greenback throughout the week, closing the week at PKR278.14/US$.

Other major news flows during the week included: 1) FBR considering traders’ new proposal to collect advance tax, 2) Pakistan and Russia sign MoU for agricultural cooperation, 3) Petrol price likely to be slashed further by PKR12, 4) Privatization of PIA anticipated by end of October and 5) T-Bills outflows jump amid uncertainty.

Leather & Tanneries, Woollen, Tobacco, Pharmaceuticals and Property were amongst the top performing sectors, while the laggards included Leasing companies, Modarabas, Automobile parts & Accessories, Refinery & Real Estate Investment Trust.

Major net selling was recorded by Foreigners with a net sell of US$7.54 million. Individuals, mutual funds, and companies absorbed most of the selling with a net buy of US$16.38 million, respectively.

Top performing scrips of the week were: 1) SRVI, EFUG, PAKT, BNWN, and HCAR, while to laggards included MTL, PGLC, KOHC, IGIHL, and THALL.

IMF executive board approval, along with continuation of monetary easing, would keep equities in investor radar, currently trading at P/E of 3.6x and DY of 13.5%.

Aforementioned factors, along with an improving external account position and a better country credit rating, would keep foreigners’ interest alive.

AKD Securities recommends sectors that benefit from monetary easing and structural reforms. However, modest economic recovery may limit the upside for cyclicals.

A wakeup call for the US citizens

Let's acknowledge the reality, the United States operates under a façade of democracy. At best, it can be described as a "hybrid democracy," where elected representatives do not truly govern. Instead, military-industrial complexes, oil corporations, and Wall Street exert control.

Both major political candidates receive substantial financial backing from these powerful non-state entities. Once elected, presidents often find themselves subservient to these interests rather than serving the people.

People worldwide should remember that Democrats and Republicans have often united to erode fundamental freedoms, establishing a secretive regime of mass surveillance, unconstitutional detention, and torture.

They have dragged the nation into illegal wars based on lies, resulting in millions of deaths and the squandering of trillions of dollars.

It is essential not to forget the millions who stood against the exploitation of national grief to further the neoconservative agenda of global military domination—citizens whose voices were ignored and demonized by the political elite.

We must also remember how Muslims and their neighbors have been unjustly targeted, surveilled, smeared, and falsely accused in the name of "protecting the United States."

Patriotism has been weaponized to undermine the First Amendment, stifling dissent, journalism, whistleblowing, and activism. To this day, there are ongoing efforts to criminalize protests against injustice, war, and genocide.

Never forget how both Democrats and Republicans have set the country on a path toward fascism, leading to an administration openly supporting the genocide of the Palestinian people.

True patriotism requires the courage to stand up for justice, not blindly following orders. By resisting both war-driven political parties, the American people can halt the descent into fascism and fight for a peaceful, just, and livable future for the generations to come.

Pakistan: Central Bank Reduces Policy Rate

The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) announced its monetary policy statement today (September 12, 2024) decreasing the policy rate by 200bps to 17.5%. After the announcement, the SBP Governor made the following remarks in the analyst briefing:

The SBP's policy rate decision is influenced by a greater than expected decline in inflation and favorable trends in global oil and food prices. However, given the uncertain nature of these developments, the committee has adopted a cautious stance.

Real interest rates remain sufficiently positive to achieve the SBP's medium-term inflation target of up to 7%.

The SBP is not focused on a specific interest rate level but considers various factors, including the external account and future inflation, when making rate decisions.

Governor was hopeful that the IMF board will review Pakistan’s agenda for the approval of the 37-month Extended Fund Facility (EFF) program this month, as the government has secured all required external financing assurances.

Moving forward, the SBP will publish semi-annual data on central bank interventions in currency markets, as well as projections for foreign exchange reserves and upcoming debt obligations over the next six months.

Data on currency market interventions will be published with a three-month lag due to the sensitivity of the information.

In June 2024, the SBP purchased US$573 million from the open market.

By the end of March 2025, country’s foreign exchange reserves are projected to reach US$12.0 billion despite debt repayments.

The government is obligated to pay US$14.2 billion by March 2025, of which US$8.3 billion will be rolled over, while the remaining amount consists of debt repayments.

To date, the government has cleared US$4 billion in debt, including US$2.3 billion in rollovers. The remaining debt repayments of US$5.8 billion will be spread evenly until March 2025.

For FY24, the government has US$26 billion in debt obligations, including US$12 billion in rollovers and US$4 billion in commercial bilateral loans, which are also expected to be rolled over.

Of the US$8.3 billion repayments due this year, US$1.7 billion has already been settled.

According to audited accounts, the SBP earned a profit of PKR2.5 trillion in FY24 and is expected to disburse this amount as a dividend to the government in the coming days.

Non-oil imports are at levels seen in FY22 and early FY23, with the reduction primarily driven by a significant decline in oil imports.

 

 

Rising resentment against Israel

A Jordanian driver, identified as Maher Thiyab Hussein al-Jazi, killed three Israelis on Sunday at the Israeli-controlled border crossing that connects Jordan with the West Bank.

The Israeli military said the man approached the Allenby Bridge from Jordan in a truck, exited the vehicle and opened fire on forces operating the bridge.

The Jordanian citizen’s shooting at the border crossing shows the depth of anger against Israel. The majority of people in the Arab world are filled with a strong feeling of rage against the Israeli rulers.

Persons like Maher Thiyab Hussein al-Jazi sacrifice their lives in defense of Palestinians that there is no prospect for their agonies.

On Jun 03, 2023, four months before the October 07 attack by Hamas on Israel, an Egyptian border guard also crossed into Israel and killed three soldiers. The Egyptian officer knew that he would be killed but he defied all the dangers to vent his anger at Israel.

The anti-Israeli feeling has run deeper since Israel started the sadistic war on Gaza.

Jordanians have held regular protests against the Gaza war despite harsh restrictions on speech and public gatherings.

The driver’s brother Shady Al-Jazi said his brother’s anger at Israel’s war on Hamas in Gaza may have been a motivating factor.

“He used to work as a truck driver and would cross (the bridge) often to offload the truck and then return back to Jordan. But his grief over what’s happening to the Muslim nation, seeing all the killing in Gaza, and every one of us who feels passionately for his brethren, this could motivate him,” he told Jordanian news outlet Ammon in an on-air interview, the Washington Post reported.

In reaction to the incident, Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said his country is “surrounded by a murderous ideology led by Iran's axis of evil.”

But it is ideologically driven extremists, including Netanyahu, who have put Israel in such a precarious situation. They cannot get out of this self-created quagmire otherwise there is a U-turn in Israel’s policy toward the Palestinians.

Netanyahu is notoriously famous for telling lies and making nonsensical remarks. Even when people gathered outside Capitol Hill to protest the Israeli war on Gaza while he was addressing the American Congress on July 24, he called protestors "useful idiots" of Iran and claimed that Iran is funding and promoting anti-war protests. 

Netanyahu has lost direction and badly gone mad. He is not even listening to the Israelis who want an end to the war in Gaza. About 750,000 people took to the streets on Saturday night in Tel Aviv and Jerusalem demanding a ceasefire in Gaza.

In the campaign against his rivals for recapturing power he called himself the “man of security”. But he has put the entire Israel in jeopardy.    

Netanyahu’s attempts to demonize Iran for Israel’s troubles neither work nor deceive people. Every person with a common sense can easily understand the hatred toward Israeli rulers.

Netanyahu’s army has been committing war crimes and crimes against humanity in the Gaza Strip since October last year. The settlers have killed about 700 Palestinians in the West Bank during these 340 days.

The anti-Israeli feeling is also boiling high in many non-Arab countries including the United States. The protests in American universities against the war on Gaza and calling President Biden “genocide Joe” for shipping lethal arms to Israel are examples of impatience and resentment against the savage war on Gaza.

 

How far can crude oil prices plunge?

We are of the view that crude oil price may fall below US$60 per barrel, if production in countries like Libya, Iraq, Iran and Venezuela rise to normal. Sanctions on Russia and Iran are also there to avoid glut. We have the convictions that unrest in some of the African countries is there to avoid fall of crude oil price below US$50 per barrel  

Brent crude futures fell below US$70 a barrel on Tuesday for the first time since December 2021, after OPEC Plus revised down its demand forecast for this year and 2025.

Brent crude futures were traded at US$69.51 a barrel and US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude slipped to US$66.21. On Monday, both benchmarks had risen about 1%.

On Tuesday, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) in a monthly report said world oil demand will rise by 2.03 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2024, down from last month's forecast for growth of 2.11 million bpd. Until last month, OPEC had kept the forecast unchanged since it was first made in July 2023.

OPEC also cut its 2025 global demand growth estimate to 1.74 million bpd from 1.78 million bpd. Prices slid on the weakening global demand prospects and expectations of oil oversupply.

On Monday, Chinese data showed consumer inflation accelerated in August to its fastest in half a year, though domestic demand remained fragile, and producer price deflation worsened.

Data released on Tuesday showed China's exports grew in August at their fastest in nearly 1-1/2 years, yet imports disappointed with domestic demand depressed.

“If we lose China this market is going to have a problem because OPEC just cannot cut enough to offset the US and Brazilian position, and some of the other reservoirs at work,” said John Kilduff, partner at Again Capital.

 

MSC ship loses 46 containers overboard

According to Seatrade Maritime News, the South African Maritime Safety Authority (SAMSA) has reported that the Liberian-flagged MSC Antonia has lost lost 46 containers overboard while a further 305 boxes suffered damage in the Indian Ocean corridor on August 28, 2024.

"The incident occurred approximately 29 nautical miles northeast of Port St. Johns while the vessel was enroute from Colombo to New York. In light of the container loss, a navigation warning has been issued to all vessels operating in the affected area,” SAMSA said in a statement.

The MSC Antonio safely arrived in the port of Cape Town on August 30, where it would undergo a comprehensive assessment and necessary repairs.

The incident with the MSC Antonio follows the loss of 99 containers from the CMA CGM Belem in adverse weather while sailing off the coast of Richards Bay in South Africa on Thursday August 16.

The 13,000 teu CMA CGM Belem sought safe habour in the Port of Ngqurha following the incident and has since been making load adjustments.

On Friday last week, the ship's insurer representatives in South Africa launched a five hour aerial surveillance and search for the vessel's lost containers after several sightings of floating containers along the Wild Coast area of the Eastern Cape province were reported to the authorities.

SAMSA said around 20 containers were spotted but it could not be confirmed that they belonged to the CMA CGM Belem.

The incident with the CMA CGM Belem came just a month after the CMA CGM Benjamin Franklin lost 44 containers overboard off the coast of South Africa while sailing round the Cape of Good Hope.

All three vessels in recent incidents were on voyages between Asia and Europe and transiting the Cape of Good Hope due to the security situation in the Red Sea.

Container ships would normally transit the Red Sea and Suez Canal between Asia and Europe. However, the vast majority have diverted to sailing via the Cape of Good Hope to avoid attacks on shipping in the Red Sea by the Houthis. This has exposed vessels that would not normally transit the African cape to severe winter storms in the region.

 

 

 

 

Iran trade with OIC members on the rise

The value of the trade between Iran and the other 56 members of the Organization of Islamic Conference (OIC) reached US$26.7 billion in the first five months of the current Iranian calendar year, registering a 15 percent increase compared to the same period a year earlier.

According to the head of the Islamic Republic of Iran Customs Administration (IRICA), the volume of the trade between Iran and OIC member states in the mentioned five months reached 42.3 million tons, also 10 percent more compared to the previous year's same time span.

Iran exported 33.6 million tons of non-oil goods worth US$13.5 billion to OIC member countries and imported 8.7 million tons of commodities valued at US$13.2 billion from them in the first five months of the current Iranian year, Mohammad Rezvanifar said.

The deputy economy minister added that the country’s exports to OIC members registered 16% and 8.0% increase in value and weight respectively in the mentioned period, while the import of products from the mentioned countries also increased by 18% and 15% in terms of weight and value.

Among the OIC member states, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Turkey, Iraq, Pakistan, and Oman were Iran’s major trade partners, the IRICA head noted.

Back in May 2023, the former head of the Iran Chamber of Commerce, Industries, Mines, and Agriculture (ICCIMA) stressed the need for establishing a joint Islamic market among OIC members over the next 10 years.

Addressing a gathering of the heads of OIC member chambers of commerce on the sidelines of the "Russia - Islamic World: Kazan Forum 2023" in Russia, Gholam-Hossein Shafeie said, “An important issue that has been discussed a lot in the past and the organization should pay attention to it in the current situation is the creation of a common Islamic market in the next 10 years, which can be achieved by concluding a free trade agreement among Islamic countries and removing tariff and non-tariff barriers.”

“Experts have worked on the Islamic market plan, and using the experiences and studies of these experts can definitely be a way forward,” he added.

The Organization of Islamic Cooperation, which was formed in 1972, today has reached a position where, according to statistics, the future of the world's energy would be in the hands of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation, Shafeie said in his speech.