China’s naval expansion and bolstering of its shipbuilding
capabilities may give the PLA a strategic edge in a potential conflict,
including the “hellscape strategy” floated recently by the United States.
Raymond Kuo, director of the Rand Corporation’s Taiwan
Initiative, said that China, alongside Japan and South Korea, has the “largest
shipbuilding industry in the world” and can produce completed hulls at a faster
rate than the US.
While American ships tend to be more complex and have
greater displacement … China’s ability to relatively rapidly produce naval
ships means that it can reconstitute any combat losses more quickly than the
United States can, he said.
“The PLA have an additional advantage in that any conflict
over, say, Taiwan or the South China Sea would be much closer to their shores.”
According to an analysis of satellite imagery published by
the Paris-based Naval News in late May, China’s 10th Type 055 destroyer –
its most advanced warship and prime aircraft carrier escort – was recently
launched by naval builder Dalian Shipbuilding.
Since the first Type 055 was commissioned in 2020, the first
batch of eight is in service and construction of the second batch is well under
way, with the ninth reportedly launched late last year.
The Naval News said the shipbuilder has also launched five
Type 052 destroyers, all assembled in a single large dry dock, while the same
yard was also responsible for modernization work on the Liaoning, China’s
first aircraft carrier, until the middle of April.
A report earlier this month from the Centre for Strategic
and International Studies said China’s “massive shipbuilding industry would
provide a strategic advantage in a war that stretches beyond a few weeks”.
According to the report, China would be able to repair
damaged vessels or construct replacements much faster than the US, “which
continues to face a significant maintenance backlog”.
The report noted that the US would probably be unable to
quickly construct many new ships or to repair damaged fighting ships in a great
power conflict.
The launch of China’s new destroyer coincided with a ramping
up of US efforts to develop a drone strategy to create what Admiral Samuel
Paparo described this month as a “hellscape” in the Taiwan Strait to
counter any mainland attack on the island.
Beijing regards Taiwan as part of China, to be reunited by
force if necessary. Like most countries, the US does not recognize Taipei’s
government but is committed to supplying arms for the island’s defence.
Paparo, commander of the US Indo-Pacific Command, said the
US plans to use a large, lethal drone force to distract China’s military and
buy time for the US to defend Taiwan in the case of an attack.
But Washington would have “a lot of work to do” before it
could carry out the strategy, including ramping up military stockpiles and
increasing production of drone swarms, said Collin Koh, a senior fellow at the
S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore.
“One shouldn’t forget that you still need to neutralise the
Chinese ability to project force on Taiwan … you have to even take out the
Chinese ability to sustain the war,” he said.
“For example, you would have to, say, destroy the shipyards
if necessary. There will still [be a requirement for] the US to invest in other
force projection capabilities, like long-range precision-guided munitions – for
example, cruise missiles.”
Malcolm Davis, a senior analyst at the Australian Strategic
Policy Institute, said a Taiwan contingency would depend in part on whether the
US reverses its declining shipbuilding capability.
The US Naval Institute said in 2021 that the US has just
seven shipyards that can build large warships, while China has more than 20,
along with dozens of commercial facilities that dwarf the largest US shipyards
in size and throughput.
According to Davis, it’s “conceivable” that a larger, more
powerful and well armed PLA Navy could allow China to win a prolonged conflict,
simply through its “quantitative and firepower advantage”.
“And geography benefits China with the US having to project
force across the Pacific into China’s maritime approaches,” he said.
“Also, the relative strength needs to be considered in a
broader context of China’s anti-access and area denial capabilities, including
land-based long-range missiles, more advanced air power, counter-space
capabilities, and cyber and electromagnetic operations.”
The Type 055 destroyer – also referred to as a missile
cruiser because of its size and capabilities – is 180 metres in length with a
beam of 20 metres and has a displacement of around 13,000 tons at full load.
It features 112 vertical launch system cells – an advanced
system for holding and firing missiles on mobile naval platforms – housing the
HHQ-9 long-range surface-to-air missiles and the YJ-18 anti-ship missiles.
Footage revealed in April 2022 showed a Type 055 test-firing
China’s latest hypersonic anti-ship missile, the YJ-21.
According to Koh, the import and indigenization of foreign
technology has made Chinese shipyards more “mature” and the increased
production of Type 055 destroyers would allow the PLA Navy to deploy them with
“greater regularity”.
However, he pointed out that there still remains the
question of “how good they are”, with China’s ability to sustain its rapidly
growing naval fleets undetermined.
“The only question is that … each of these Type 055
destroyers is also quite expensive. So the question of course arises whether
China can even sustain the construction with its current economic issues.”
