Friday, 3 May 2024

Iran-Kuwait Arash gas field dispute

Lately, the spokesperson for Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Nasser Kanaani addressed Kuwait's repeated claims regarding Arash gas field. He emphasized Iran's historical rights to the area and invited Kuwait to engage in constructive dialogue for a mutually beneficial agreement.

This response came after Kuwait and Jordan issued a joint statement following a meeting between their leaders, emphasizing that the gas field, known as Durra, is located within Kuwait's territorial waters, with all its resources belonging to Kuwait and Saudi Arabia.

Kanaani expressed regret over Kuwait's persistent unilateral claims regarding the Arash gas field. He highlighted Iran's stance on the matter, citing historical rights and past negotiation records.

Iran extended an invitation to Kuwait to engage in discussions aimed at reaching a sustainable agreement grounded in friendly cooperation and shared interests.

Additionally, the Ministry's spokesperson cautioned against the issuance of repetitive statements and unilateral claims, emphasizing that such actions carry no legal weight and hinder progress towards resolution.

Kanaani reiterated Iran's commitment to monitoring regional interactions with a principle of good faith. He urged third-party governments to prioritize trust-building measures and enhance relations and cooperation in addressing disputes like the Arash gas field matter.

"We recommend the authorities of this country to refrain from resorting to fruitless political and media methods regarding the issue of Arash gas field,” he noted.

In the backdrop of regional tensions, the offshore gas field in the Persian Gulf has become a longstanding point of contention between Iran and Kuwait, both asserting ownership of this source. Last March, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia signed an agreement to jointly develop the Durra field, known as Arash in Iran. Iran promptly objected, deeming it "illegal" and asserting plans for independent development.

The gas field, discovered in 1967 on the eastern maritime border of Kuwait, remains a source of dispute as Iran claims the field extends into its waters. Estimates suggest over 70% of the resources of the disputed gas field lie in waters claimed by Iran.

Despite years of diplomatic talks, Iran and Kuwait have not reached an agreement on their disputed maritime border area, which is rich in natural gas. The prolonged negotiations have yet to yield a resolution, highlighting the complexities surrounding this strategically significant region.

 

 

MENA: New proxy war ground for US and China

Tensions between the United States and China are expanding beyond the Asia-Pacific region. The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) is likely to be one of many venues in what might be a new Cold War between Washington and Beijing.

We can imagine how Washington and Beijing’s respective global outlooks and ability to project (soft and hard) power could affect their future relations with the MENA region.

How MENA countries deal with each other and the role they play in the emerging global energy and economy transitions could influence how the two superpowers engage with the region in ways as interesting and important as what the superpowers are able to do themselves. On the MENA side of the equation, two critical dimensions are likely to shape their role in the future US-China competition in the region:

Intraregional politics

The first is how regional countries relate to each other with functional and practical economic and political integration, or sustained dysfunction and instability. Prior to the current war in Gaza, there was a trend toward de-escalation, stabilization, and integration.

Whenever that momentum might be regained, under the “functional and practical” route, we could imagine MENA nations looking in new ways at the lessons of pan-regional intergovernmental organizations.

The region could explore policies and mechanisms that emulate the practical benefits afforded to member states of other regional blocs like the European Union and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations. Such ideas could first lower trade barriers, then foster closer economic and commercial ties across the region.

Similarly, the thinking behind the Helsinki Final Act of 1975 and the Organization for Cooperation and Security in Europe could influence MENA governments’ approach to their citizens’ human rights and each other’s domestic affairs.

The functional and practical path would represent a MENA equipped with deliberative, consultative decision-making processes to act with agency, putting its own interests before the dictates of the US-Chinese competition.

The alternative path is easy to define, MENA governments continue to support various armed groups in proxy wars, and use that environment to ignore human rights, enabling outside players to exploit that dysfunction.

Levers of the future economy

The fossil fuel resources of Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates ‑ energy-rich club might soon include Egypt and Israel ‑ are likely to remain MENA’s main sources of leverage vis-à-vis Washington and Beijing — at least for the next couple of decades. Given the desire of two superpowers to secure the region’s oil and gas for themselves and their allies, or deny them to adversaries, US and Chinese companies will remain powerhouses in regional markets.

MENA is poised to influence the future global stage, and gain agency in the US-China competition over the region, by leveraging its energy and financial power in different ways in the future.

As the world turns to renewable energy, the region’s petrostates are simultaneously ramping up economic diversification into tech sectors, while also leveraging their wealth to finance climate-friendly energy projects and other green economy endeavors in their neighborhood and around the world.

The new frontier for the region’s resource- and capital-rich countries will be fostering innovation and science/technology/ideas hubs for the post-carbon economy that humanity intends to build in the 21st century.

Beside eventually waning hydrocarbons and ascending green energy, new logistical/transportation/energy networks have proliferated in the region and are likely to further increase its geopolitical and commercial significance.

Be it through long-established routes, such as the Suez Canal, or new and proposed ones, such as the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route, India-Middle East Corridor, and the Turkish-Iraqi-Emirati-Qatari Development Road, MENA is going to be sitting at the center of global trade networks. Many of the region’s seaports and airports will also play an expanded role in international affairs.

United States suspends work on Gaza pier

The US military said on Friday it has temporarily paused the offshore construction of a maritime pier because of weather conditions and instead would continue building it at the Israeli port of Ashdod.

The maritime pier, once built, will be placed off the coast of Gaza in a bid to speed the flow of humanitarian aid into the enclave.

"Forecasted high winds and high sea swells caused unsafe conditions for soldiers working on the surface of the partially constructed pier," the US military said in a statement.

"The partially built pier and military vessels involved in its construction have moved to the Port of Ashdod, where assembly will continue," it added.

Earlier this week, the Pentagon said about 50% of the pier had been constructed.

Israel has sought to demonstrate it is not blocking aid to Gaza, especially since President Joe Biden issued a stark warning to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, saying Washington’s policy could shift if Israel fails to take steps to address civilian harm, humanitarian suffering, and the safety of aid workers.

US. officials and aid groups say some progress has been made but warn it is insufficient, amid stark warnings of imminent famine among Gaza's 2.3 million people.

 

US threatens ICC over Israeli arrest warrants

In another sign United States allowing Israel to violate international law, Washington stands accused of threatening a UN court from issuing arrest warrants against the Israeli leaders.

Senior Republican officials say President Biden’s administration backs their stance toward the International Criminal Court (ICC) if the body goes ahead with its plan to issue arrest warrants against Israeli leaders, including Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. 

Speaking to reporters, Republican House Speaker Mike Johnson says there is support among Democrats in the White House for the ICC to withdraw its position amid reports the UN Court is set to issue arrest warrants for Netanyahu as well as other high-ranking officials including War Minister Yoav Gallant and military chief of staff Herzi Halevi for war crimes. 

In a direct threat to the ICC, Johnson underlined that “they’d better not do that … I think that it would make us as a nation respond in kind to the ICC”. 
“I think a group of senators and House members who would move expeditiously and we might just turn the table on the ICC. They better be careful,” the Republican leader warned.
 
According to Johnson, who spoke to Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Tuesday, the Biden administration totally agrees.  

Blinken “confirmed that the position of the White House is our position … they are calling for the ICC to stand down,” Johnson told reporters. 

According to Axios, Congress has informed the ICC that any arrest warrants against Israeli leaders will be met with US retaliation with legislation to that effect already in the works. 

In a statement, the chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, Michael McCaul, echoed those warnings from his party leadership.

The Israeli occupation regime does not recognize the authority of the ICC, but issuing warrants would mean that the 124 countries that have signed up to the body, including some of Tel Aviv’s closest Western allies, would be obliged to arrest Israeli officials if they enter their territory.

Many have called out the US hypocrisy in its response to war crimes investigations against the Israelis, whose war on Gaza has so far led to the murder of around 35,000 Palestinians, most of them women and children. Using starvation as a weapon of war in Gaza is another Israeli war crime that reports indicate the ICC is pursuing the arrest warrants for. 

Last year, Biden welcomed an ICC decision to issue an arrest warrant for Russian President Vladimir Putin, saying it was justified over what the US president said was Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Russia says the warrant against Putin is a meaningless campaign by the West to damage Russia’s reputation and denies war crimes during its military actions against the US and NATO-backed Ukrainian army. 

“This is evidence of the stratification of consciousness,” Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said in a post on social media in which she hinted that Israel is a satellite of the United States. 

“On the one hand, the ICC judges are under US sanctions; on the other hand, Washington fully supported, if not stimulated, the issuance of ICC warrants against the Russian leadership; on the third, the American political system does not recognize the legitimacy of this structure in relation to itself and its satellites.” Zakharova pointed out. 

The Russian diplomat was responding to White House Press Secretary Karin Jean-Pierre who stated, “The US authorities believe that the investigation of the International Criminal Court into Israel’s actions in the Gaza Strip, as well as the issuance of arrest warrants for Israeli high-ranking officials in this regard, goes beyond the jurisdiction of the court.”

ICC arrest warrants would be one of the most severe diplomatic setbacks for the Israeli occupation regime and its political and military leadership since the start of the war on Gaza.

Tel Aviv is already facing a genocide case, brought by South Africa, at the International Court of Justice as well as widespread accusations of indiscriminately carpet-bombing civilian infrastructure in Gaza and causing famine by preventing aid supplies from entering the enclave. 

Experts have highlighted that they do not believe the prospect of any ICC action would derail negotiations for a ceasefire in Gaza, saying such reports emerging in the US are part of wider tactics being deployed by Washington and Tel Aviv to delay the warrants being issued. 

Israeli media say Netanyahu is worried about the ICC issuing an arrest warrant against him, as reports indicate the US is lobbying its Western allies to pile pressure on the top UN Court. 

 

Thursday, 2 May 2024

Understanding Middle East grand bargain

The Biden administration and Saudi Arabia are finalizing an agreement for United States security guarantees and civilian nuclear assistance, even as an Israel-Saudi normalization deal envisioned as part of a Middle East “grand bargain” remains elusive, reports Reuters.

A working draft lays out principles and proposals aimed at putting back on track a US-led effort to reshape the volatile region that was derailed by Hamas’ October 07, 2023 attack on Israel and the outbreak of war in Gaza.

It appears to be a long-shot strategy that faces numerous obstacles, not least the uncertainty over how the Gaza conflict will unfold.

The US and Saudi negotiators have, for now, prioritized a bilateral security accord that would then be part of a wider package presented to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who would have to decide whether to make concessions to secure historic ties with Riyadh.

“We’re very close to reaching an agreement” on the US-Saudi portion of the package, US State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller said on Thursday, predicting that details could be ironed out “in very short order.”

That part of the plan is likely to call for formal US guarantees to defend the kingdom as well as Saudi access to more advanced US weaponry in return for halting Chinese arms purchases and restricting Beijing’s investment in the country.

The US-Saudi security accord is also expected to involve sharing emerging technologies with Riyadh, including artificial intelligence.

The terms are expected to be finalized within weeks.

The conditions that Netanyahu will face to join a broader deal are expected to include winding down the war in Gaza and agreeing on a pathway to Palestinian statehood, both of which Netanyahu has steadfastly resisted.

US officials hope Netanyahu will not want to pass up the historic opportunity to open relations with Saudi Arabia, guardian of Islam’s holiest sites, but are mindful of the domestic political pressures he is under, including keeping Israel’s most right-wing government ever from collapsing.

A broader pact giving the world's biggest oil exporter US military protection together with normalization with Israel would unite two long-time foes and bind Riyadh to Washington at a time when China is making inroads in the region.

A normalization deal would also bolster Israel's defenses against arch-foe Iran and give US President Joe Biden a diplomatic victory ahead of the November 05, 2024 presidential election.

Overhanging these efforts is Netanyahu’s threat to launch a military offensive in the southern Gaza city of Rafah, where more than a million Palestinians are sheltering, despite US entreaties to refrain from an operation that could mean further heavy civilian casualties.

Call for single Palestinian government

In a joint statement, issued at the end of the meeting, the foreign ministers and representatives of the Arab and European countries pledged full support to the efforts to reach an immediate ceasefire, as well as to release hostages, and end the war in Gaza. The meeting also called for ending all illegal unilateral actions and violations in the occupied Palestinian territories, including East Jerusalem as well as for addressing the ongoing catastrophic humanitarian crisis.

Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan and Foreign Minister of Norway Espen Barth Eide co-chaired the meeting between the Ministerial Committee, assigned by the Joint Arab- Islamic Extraordinary Summit on Developments in the Gaza Strip, and the European foreign ministers and representatives, to discuss the urgent need to end the war in Gaza and to take steps to implement the two-state solution.

The meeting stressed the need to intensify support for state-building efforts, support the new Palestinian government, and the importance of having a single Palestinian government in the West Bank, East Jerusalem, and Gaza.

The meeting underscored the importance of moving the conflict into a political track so as to enable a political solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Concrete steps towards realization of a Palestinian State in the context of the two-state solution were figured high in the meeting. An increased urgency to take such steps and the importance of coordinating positions were emphasized. The meeting also discussed the matter of recognition of a Palestinian State by countries that have not yet done so, and the timing and context of such recognition.

The ministers emphasized the importance of the need to adopt a holistic approach towards a credible irreversible track for the implementation of the two-state solution. This needs to be in accordance with international law and agreed parameters, including United Nations Security Council Resolutions and the Arab Peace Initiative, among other initiatives.

The objective is to achieve a just and lasting peace that fulfills the rights of the Palestinian people and the security of Israel and the region. In return, this will pave the way for normal relations between countries in a region, where stability, security, peace and cooperation prevail.

The meeting was attended by foreign ministers and representatives of Algeria, Bahrain, Belgium, Egypt, the European Union, the United Kingdom, France, Germany, Ireland, Italy, Jordan, Arab League, Palestine, Portugal, Qatar, Slovenia, Spain, Türkiye, and the United Arab Emirates.

Wednesday, 1 May 2024

Can someone shut up Bezalel Smotrich?

It is highly disgusting that Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich on Tuesday openly demanded the the elimination of blockaded Gaza enclave, destruction of cities and refugee camps where 2.3 million Palestinians are still battling their survival.

"There are no half measures," said Smotrich at a government meeting. "Rafah, Deir al-Balah, Nuseirat—total annihilation."

"'You will blot out the remembrance of Amalek from under heaven,'" he added, quoting the biblical story of the nation of Amalek, whose people God commanded the Israelites to exterminate and which right-wing Israeli leaders have long invoked to justify the killing of Palestinians.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu also referenced Amalek in the first weeks of Israel's current escalation against Gaza; Smotrich's comments came as he and other government officials pushed Netanyahu to forge ahead with a planned attack on the southern city of Rafah, where more than 1.5 million people have been displaced as other cities across Gaza have been decimated by Israeli forces.

Ibrahim Hooper, national communications director for the Council on American-Islamic Relations (CAIR), called on President Joe Biden to stop condemning thousands of US college students who have demanded a ceasefire and an end to military aid for Israel and direct his ire toward the Israeli government, which he has repeatedly insisted is targeting Hamas despite its genocidal statements and indiscriminate attacks.

"In case the Israeli government's genocidal intent in Gaza was unclear to anyone despite its daily war crimes against the Palestinian people, Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich's words should serve as another wake-up call," said Hooper.

"The intent of the Netanyahu government has always been Palestinian land without Palestinians, and violence has always been the route to achieve that heinous goal. Instead of condemning college students, President Biden must condemn Israeli leaders for making and acting on their genocidal threats."

In recent months, Israeli officials have stated that the "migration" of Gaza residents is their ultimate goal in relentlessly attacking the enclave, that all Palestinians in Gaza are "responsible" for a Hamas-led attack on southern Israel in October and are legitimate targets, that the enclave should be "flattened," and that the Israel Defense Forces is fighting "human animals."

Journalist Mehdi Hasan sardonically suggested that Smotrich's comments will be deemed acceptable by the Biden administration, members of Congress, and the U.S. corporate media because he didn't "say it on a college campus."

"Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, a member of the security cabinet, ought to be fired immediately over his latest remarks," read an editorial in Haaretz Tuesday night that was published as police in New York were storming Columbia University to arrest students.

"That's how any properly run country would act, and all the more so a country against which the International Court of Justice in The Hague has issued provisional measures requiring it to refrain from genocide, including one requiring it to deal properly with incitement to genocide."

Smotrich and others have objected to what National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir on Tuesday called a "reckless" deal that would allow for the release of scores of Israeli hostages being held by Hamas in exchange for Palestinian prisoners who have long been detained in Israeli jails. The deal would include a 40-day halt in fighting.

CAIR also pointed out Tuesday that five units of Israel's security forces have been accused of committing a "gross violation of human rights," according to a U.S. State Department analysis.

"Our nation's repeated claim that it supports international law and human rights," said national executive director Nihad Awad, "is a cruel illusion."