Biden moving in wrong direction

"The United States ought to be distancing itself from Israel's illegal attack, but instead the Biden administration is moving to shield Israel from the consequences of its own actions," Daniel Larison wrote.

Israeli appears to want to goad Iran into a military response to divert attention from the slaughter and famine in Gaza and to trap the US into joining the fight. Biden has made it that much easier for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu by volunteering to walk into the trap.

Israeli forces have routinely struck Iranian and other targets in Syria for more than a decade, but the attack on the consulate in Damascus was a major escalation both in terms of the location and the rank of the Iranian officers that were killed.

An imminent Iranian response to Israel's deadly bombing of Tehran's consulate in the Syrian capital earlier this month is heightening fears of a devastating regional conflict in which the United States—Israel's top ally and arms supplier—could become directly involved.

The US embassy in Jerusalem issued a security warning on Thursday and restricted its employees' travel ahead of a possible Iranian response as soon as Friday. US officials, according to Politico, have assessed that Iran is calibrating its plans for a major retaliatory strike against Israel to send a message—but not spark a regional war that compels Washington to respond.

US President Joe Biden and top administration officials have in recent days stressed their "ironclad" commitment to defending Israel in the case of an Iranian reprisal, despite widespread condemnation of Israel's consulate attack as a significant escalation and flagrant violation of international law.

"When the Israeli regime completely violates the immunity of individuals and diplomatic places in violation of international law and the Vienna Conventions, legitimate defense is a necessity," Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian said in a statement Thursday.

Two unnamed US officials told CBS News that Iran's response could include more than 100 drones and dozens of missiles aimed at military targets inside the country." Biden administration officials have asked China and other nations to urge Iran not to respond to the consulate attack.

The Israeli government, which is currently waging a catastrophic war on the Gaza Strip, signaled it would respond forcefully to any Iranian retaliation, raising the possibility of direct US involvement.

Axios reported that the senior US military commander in charge of the Middle East visited Israel Thursday to coordinate around a possible attack on Israel by Iran and its proxies.

While war hawks in the US have used the surge in tensions to agitate for a direct American-Israeli attack on Iran, advocacy groups and anti-war commentators have warned against any additional escalation, fearing the eruption of all-out military conflict in the Middle East.

"A regional war involving the US, Israel, and Iran would be disastrous for US interests, the people of Iran, and the security of the region as a whole," the National Iranian American Council (NIAC) said earlier this week.

Responsible Statecraft columnist Daniel Larison wrote Friday that with its unwavering support for the Netanyahu government, the Biden administration is moving in the wrong direction.

 

Terrorists targeting Iranian coastal areas

According to Tehran Times, on April 3, 2024 security forces engaged in a 17-hour battle against terrorists in two separate cities within Iran's southeastern province of Sistan and Baluchistan.

During the confrontation, 12 members of the Islamic Revolution Guard Corps (IRGC) and 4 police officers lost their lives as they fought to clear the region of terrorists affiliated with the so-called Jaish-ul-Adl outfit. 

The clash ensued after 18 members of the terrorist group launched simultaneous attacks on five military bases overnight. In Chabahar, they escalated the situation by seizing a residential building and taking civilian hostage while resisting security forces. Ultimately, all 18 terrorists were neutralized.

The terrorist group cited its motive for the attacks as obstructing the "Makran Coasts Development Plan." It claimed that the plan which is expected to rake in millions of dollars for locals in southeastern Iran aims to “change the Sunni demographic” of the region.

Makran, a historically significant region stretching from the mountains west of Jask to portions of Pakistan's Baluchistan province along the Sea of Oman, has witnessed recent infrastructural development by Iran. The Chabahar port has particularly emerged as a crucial trade gateway connecting the Indian Ocean with landlocked nations in Central Asia.

External separatist groups and oppositionists have persistently attempted to discredit the Iranian government's economic initiatives in Sistan and Baluchistan province, portraying them as detrimental to local interests.

Often featured on Western-based news channels, Balouch separatists have propagated sensational claims, including the unfounded assertion that over 20 million Shia Muslims would be relocated to the port city of Chabahar. It's worth noting that Tehran's population, with the capital city having been the economic and cultural hub of Iran, has only increased by 7 million over the past 45 years.

Despite being a Shia-majority nation, Iran ensures equal rights and freedoms for all religious sects and minorities. Every religious group has representation in the parliament, and individuals from diverse backgrounds can ascend to prominent political, diplomatic, and military positions. For instance, the Iranian Army's Navy, one of Iran’s most important military forces, is led by Rear Admiral Shahram Irani, a Sunni commander.

Iran's judiciary and law enforcement authorities also make sure to uphold the rights of religious minorities. As warned by the Leader of the Islamic Revolution, the desecration of the sanctities of any religious group is deemed a grave offense with strict legal consequences.

Despite centuries and perhaps thousands of years peaceful coexistence among Iranian citizens, media outlets affiliated with Israel, Western powers, and Wahabi groups persist in sowing discord under various pretexts.

For the past several years, their main tool for destabilizing southeastern Iran and creating friction has been the Jaish-ul-Adl, known within Iran as Jaish-ul-Zolm. Pictures of the individuals liquidated on April 3 show the group had managed to equip its terrorists with advanced weapons, making them resemble members of a conventional army rather than a terrorist entity residing in the deserted mountains of Pakistan. 

"Iran occupies a pivotal position globally, offering significant potential to serve as a key economic corridor in the future. This realization has spurred the nation to intensify its development efforts along coastal regions," remarked Vahid Raz Afzoon, an expert in coastal development, speaking to the Tehran Times.

"Makran, particularly Chabahar, receives special attention from Iranian authorities. The area holds immense promise to evolve into an economic nucleus, providing substantial benefits primarily to the locals of Sistan and Baluchistan, many of whom currently seek employment opportunities in other provinces."

Sistan and Baluchistan province has lagged behind other Iranian regions in terms of economic development. Analysts believe that the development of the Makran coasts could herald a transformative era for the area.

"A multitude of projects exist that could contribute to the prosperity of this region. As progress unfolds, elites from the province, currently residing in urban centers such as Tehran, Esfahan, and Mashhad, will get the chance to work in their hometown," Raz Afzoon elaborated. "Iran, like many other developing nations, has concentrated its development efforts in the capital and surrounding regions. It is imperative that this paradigm shifts. People in all 31 provinces should be able to pursue career opportunities in their hometowns and remain close to their families once they finish their studies,” he added. 

Decentralization is an issue several Asian countries are grappling with including established economies like Japan and South Korea. The Iranian government is also trying to come up with more plans and policies to dial back overdependence on Tehran and its environs. In Iran, however, it seems that authorities have more to overcome than statistical and infrastructural hurdles.

“Separatists residing abroad and terrorists like Jaish-ul-Adl know the development of Makran will benefit everyone including the locals. That’s why you don’t see them coming up with a meaningful argument,” Raz Afzoon stated.  

The routine assaults by terrorists will most likely demotivate foreign investors like India and China, preventing them from spending money on Iran’s mega projects. The longer these attacks continue, the more locals in southeastern Iran are forced to wait to finally enjoy the same amount of prosperity as those residing in the capital. 

In fact, the attacks that shook the region earlier in the month are already taking a toll on the region's economy. Tourism has been booming in Sistan and Baluchistan in the last few years. Chabahar in particular, was one of the most popular tourist destinations for Iranians in 2022 and 2023. With people fearing that they could get tangled in a spontaneous armed clash, travel agencies predict that the city will lose a significant number of visitors in the upcoming cooler seasons.

 

Iran's trade with OIC member states

The value of the trade exchanges between Iran and the other 56 member states of the Organization of Islamic Conference (OIC) reached US$61 billion in the past Iranian calendar year ended on March 19, 2024.

The Organization of Islamic Cooperation, which was formed in 1972, has reached a position where, according to statistics, the future of the world's energy would be in the hands of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation, Shafeie said in his speech.

The head of the Islamic Republic of Iran Customs Administration (IRICA) put the volume of the trade exchanges between Iran and OIC member states from March 21, 2023, to March 19, 2024, at 94 million tons.

Iran exported US$29 billion of products to these countries and imported US$32 billion worth of products from them, said Mohammad Rezvanifar while talking to IRNA.

The deputy minister of economy went on to say that the country’s export of products to the OIC members last year registered an 11% decline in value while the import of products from these countries increased 13% as compared to a year ago.

Among the OIC member states, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Turkey, Iraq, Pakistan, Oman, Afghanistan, Malaysia and Indonesia were Iran’s major trade partners.

Back in May 2023, the former head of the Iran Chamber of Commerce, Industries, Mines and Agriculture (ICCIMA) stressed the need for establishing a joint Islamic market among OIC members over the next 10 years.

Addressing a gathering of the heads of OIC member chambers of commerce on the sidelines of the "Russia - Islamic World: Kazan Forum 2023" in Russia, Gholam-Hossein Shafeie said, “An important issue that has been discussed a lot in the past and the organization should pay attention to it in the current situation is the creation of a common Islamic market in the next 10 years, which can be achieved by concluding a free trade agreement among Islamic countries and removing tariff and non-tariff barriers.”

“Experts have worked on the Islamic market plan, and using the experiences and studies of these experts can definitely be a way forward,” he added.

 

Nicaragua asks ICJ to end German support of Israeli

Nicaragua has asked the International Court of Justice to order Germany to halt military arms exports to Israel and to resume its funding of the UN Palestinian refugee agency UNRWA, saying there is a serious risk of genocide in Gaza.

Nicaragua's agent ambassador Carlos Jose Arguello Gomez told the court Berlin had violated the 1948 Genocide Convention by continuing to supply Israel with arms after ICJ judges ruled it was plausible that Israel violating some rights guaranteed under the genocide convention during its assault on Gaza, Reuters reported. 

He told the judges that Berlin was ignoring its obligations under international law by continuing to provide military assistance to Israel.

The German government rejected Nicaragua's allegations.

Berlin is one of the major arms exporters to Israel, sending 326.5 million euros (US$353.70 million) in military equipment and weapons in 2023, according to Economy Ministry data.

 

 

 

 

Iran Conundrum

Eurasia group analyst Gregory Brew said Khamenei was "trapped in a strategic conundrum".

"Iran must respond to restore deterrence and maintain credibility among its Resistance Front allies. But on the other hand, retaliating to restore deterrence would likely bring an even greater, and more destructive Israeli response, likely with US assistance," he said.

The Iranian sources said the United States had asked Iran to exercise restraint and allow space for diplomacy, cautioning Tehran that in the event of a direct attack it will stand by Israel.

Iran believes Netanyahu aims to draw Tehran into a war; therefore its retaliation could be a restrained one that avoids direct strikes on Israeli territory and may draw on Tehran's allies.

Reportedly, the US Middle East envoy has called the foreign ministers of Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar and Iraq to ask them to deliver a message to Iran urging it to lower tensions with Israel.

A source familiar with the issue said the US might well agree to revived nuclear talks if that could prevent a conflagration.

“If we are talking about talks and not (about) reaching an agreement, then it would seem to be well worth the price if the payoff is minimizing the risk of a regional escalation into which the US would be dragged,” said the source, who spoke on condition of anonymity.

Ali Vaez of International Crisis Group said Iran’s dilemma was "to figure out how to retaliate in a way that it saves face without losing its head".

"Israel is much more unpredictable than the US," he said. "The Supreme Leader is clearly concerned that rather than delivering the deterrent effect he might hope to achieve, an attack on Israel may only fuel a counter-escalation he might have hoped to avoid."

 

Iranian president’s upcoming visit to Pakistan

Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi is scheduled to officially visit Pakistan on April 22, 2024. 

This diplomatic engagement comes amidst heightened regional interest, particularly as Pakistan prepares to embark on the construction of a gas pipeline linking Gwadar port to the Iranian border in the near future, according to WION News.

In an interview with the Tehran Times on March 15, the Pakistani ambassador to Iran, Muhammad Mudassir Tipu, emphasized the importance of strengthening the longstanding bond between Iran and Pakistan. 

Tipu also underscored the need for both nations to actively nurture and enhance their deep-seated connections which are rooted in history. 

“There is a very high level of political engagement going on between the two countries. The Iranian leadership sent very strong congratulatory messages to Pakistan when our new government was recently elected. So did Islamabad when parliamentary elections were held in Iran.  I think that shows that the relationship is in the right direction and that it’s being solidified, strengthened, and widened,” Tipu stated, adding that terrorism is one thing that the two states will focus on.

He added, "But there are also far more areas where we need more cooperation. There is a historical perspective that connects more than 300 million people in the two countries. We are connected through geography, history, and culture and I think both leaderships understand that and are determined to move forward and further diversify and expand relations. While we need robust cooperation to tackle terrorism, we should meanwhile not get fixated on it. We need to widen our horizons and make use of the countless opportunities we have to deepen our ties. This is what I am looking at as the ambassador."

 

Hamas making military history

After six months of brutal fighting and the withdrawal of the Israeli army from the southern Gaza city of Khan Yunis, multiple Israeli and western commentators have argued that Hamas is winning the war and making military history in the process.

Sir Tom Phillips, a former British diplomat who served as Ambassador to Israel and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, wrote on April 09 2024 in Haaretz that Hamas had succeeded in its objective of obtaining the release of as many Palestinians held in Israeli prisons as possible, and of re-asserting themselves as a force to be reckoned with.

He added that Hamas had survived the IDF onslaught for longer than any war Israel has ever fought, and in doing so, they have thoroughly dented Israel’s much vaunted deterrent status. In brief, and with daunting potential long-term consequences for Israel, the IDF no longer looks invincible.

Hamas has blocked a potential normalization deal between Saudi Arabia and Israel, which looked inevitable before the war began on October 07, 2023, and put the Palestinian issue back squarely on the international map after years of the Palestinian Authority (PA) failing to do so.

A final victory for Hamas, Phillip notes, is the “head-spinning speed of Israel’s post October 07 delegitimization in the eyes of many in the world.”

On April 08, Israeli journalist Amos Harel wrote in Haaretz that Israel’s primary goals in Khan Yunis haven’t been achieved.

Following the withdrawal of the 98th Division from the southern Gaza city, Harel noted that the Israeli army’s two goals were the capture of top Hamas officials in Gaza and the rescue of the Israeli captives currently held by the Palestinian Resistance in Gaza.

“The public should be told the truth. The enormous death and destruction the IDF is leaving behind in Gaza, alongside quite a few losses on our side, aren’t currently bringing us any closer to achieving the war’s goals,” he concluded.

In an analysis in Yedioth Ahronoth, Israeli political analyst Nadav Eyal explained that Israel had wished to restore its power of deterrence, eliminate Hamas, and free the captives held by Hamas in Gaza. But none of these objectives have been achieved.

“Israel’s failure is not based on presenting the goals of the war – which were fully supported by all Western countries. The failure lies entirely in the execution,” Eyal wrote, adding that war is not won just by killing. A complementary political act is needed.

The first failure, according to the report, was the civilian suffering in Gaza.

“Those who want to overthrow the rule of Hamas in Gaza do not conduct a Roman-style revenge campaign; carry out a protective wall or retaliatory action as if it were the 1950s.”

The Israeli commentator also blamed Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu for his attitude towards Washington.

“Netanyahu’s public and evil confrontation with the Biden administration only emphasized Israel’s weakness,” he said.

Eyal also noted that Israel had become isolated in the international community and that even its allies in Washington and Brussels were beginning to turn against it.

“Not only has Israel lost support in most of the West, and is very close to an arms embargo from Europe, even among its great ally, the tectonic plates are in motion.”

On March 27, Israeli intelligence officials also noted the change in Washington. They told The Telegraph that the Israeli government’s stated goal to eradicate Hamas in the Gaza Strip has become unachievable after the US turned its back on Tel Aviv by abstaining during a UN Security Council (UNSC) vote earlier in the week.

“If you’d asked me this a month ago, I would definitely say yes we can eliminate Hamas because, at that time, the Americans were backing Israel,” an Israeli intelligence official told the British daily, reportedly suggesting this assessment had now changed.

The US doesn’t support going into Rafah, which they did before, so the cards right now are not good, meaning Israel has to do something dramatic and drastic to change the momentum and climate, highlighting that pressure is mounting on Israel to reach some sort of a deal, which means Hamas could survive. Both Hamas and the Iranians are playing on that.”

According to the official, the belief inside the Israeli security apparatus is that Hamas is focused on surviving until the summer, when the US election campaign will go into full gear.

Speaking on the Turkish channel Haber Global, military analyst and retired colonel Eray Gucuer also suggested Hamas is winning the war while discussing the Israeli withdrawal from Khan Yunis ahead of a presumed assault on Rafah.

“If the Israeli army really is in a situation where it could not attack Rafah except by withdrawing its brigade from Khan Yunis, this means that it effectively lost the ground war.”

“Israel, in this war, almost completely destroyed Gaza and killed thousands of civilians. However, the Qassam Brigades still exist. Until this moment, it has military superiority on the ground … no one with military experience can hide his admiration for the amazing tactics adopted by Al-Qassam… Indeed, they are writing history.”

“Imagine, since the beginning of the war in Gaza and until today, we still hear about Beit Hanoun and Ben Lahia, Al-Nasr neighborhood, and Al-Zaytoun neighborhood. Why? Because the Qassam operatives invented a tactic for the first time in my life that I have seen in the history of guerrilla wars,” he concluded.

 

Courtesy: Information clearing House