Prior to the October 07 operation by the Hamas resistance
movement, many believed a normalization deal between Saudi Arabia and Israel
was around the corner.
The first time Saudi Arabia’s crown prince and de facto
leader acknowledged that the kingdom was moving towards normalization with Israel,
was on September 20, 2023.
“Every day we get closer,” Mohammad Bin Salman said
during an interview with Fox News. He added that such a pact would be the
biggest historical deal since the Cold War.
While
Palestinians have vehemently condemned previous Arab-Israeli normalization
agreements, labeling them as treacherous stabs in the back and betrayals to the
Palestinian cause, Bin Salman argued that his deal with the Israelis would ease
the life of the Palestinians.
Since the 1980s, Saudi Arabia has been a vociferous advocate
of the two-state solution. The Fahd Peace Plan in 1981 and the Arab Peace
Initiative proposed by Riyadh in 2002, which also garnered endorsement in 2007
and 2017, both proposed that Israel become a state recognized by the Arab
League, contingent upon Israel withdrawing its forces from the territories it
occupied following the Six-Day War in 1967.
Additionally, the peace initiatives stipulated that Israel
permit the establishment of an independent Palestinian state, with East
Jerusalem as its capital.
"Despite
the widespread embrace of the Saudi peace plan by the majority of Arab states,
Israel's reaction to both Saudi initiatives was unfavorable. Israel insisted on
maintaining Jerusalem as a unified capital and also rejected the right of
return for Palestinian refugees, impacting hundreds of thousands of
individuals," said Fuad al-Ibrahim, a seasoned expert on Saudi Arabia.
The expert further noted that with the passage of time and
Israel's firm rejection of the two-state solution, Saudi Arabia appears to have
become less enthusiastic about championing the Palestinian cause.
Instead, it seems to be prioritizing the advancement of its
ties with Israel, potentially seeking stronger rapport with Washington.
"It seems that solidifying ties with Israel has become
a prerequisite for maintaining a strong relationship between Saudi Arabia and
the US government. MbS appears to be actively fostering this relationship with
Israel to secure his political career," the expert remarked.
Reports indicate that as part of any potential normalization
agreement with Israel, Saudi Arabia has pursued added concessions from
Washington, such as a security pact, the sale of advanced weaponry, and
assistance in developing a civilian nuclear program.
Allegedly,
Riyadh has also requested that Israel uphold the possibility of a two-state
solution, although given recent events and the situation in Gaza, it seems
impossible to envision Israel endorsing the establishment of a Palestinian
state.
Following Israel's aggressive actions against Palestinians
in Gaza, Riyadh declared that the potential deal is on hold. Nonetheless,
Israeli reports contend that Bin Salman has agreed to build on the US-mediated
discussions aimed at normalizing relations with Israel once the conflict in
Gaza is over. However, in light of shifting public opinion against the regime,
it may prove challenging for the custodian of Islam's holiest sites to resume
talks with Israeli officials.
"From my perspective, Operation Al-Aqsa Storm and
Israel’s subsequent response to the offensive create obstacles for MbS and
others to move forward with normalization with Israel, potentially endangering
their credibility and political careers. Nevertheless, this may be a transient
situation, contingent upon the political dynamics within Israel and the
military landscape in Gaza and the broader region," emphasized al-Ibrahim.
Israel’s disproportionate response to the October 07 Hamas
attack might have also served as a wake-up call for Saudi’s ruling
family.
That’s because Riyadh, like everyone else, noticed that Washington’s
reaction to the killing of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi and its reaction to
the slaughter of thousands of civilians in Gaza were undeniably disparate.
After Western media outlets turned the screw on the Saudi prince for his
involvement in the murder of a royal insider-turned-critic, who was killed at
the kingdom's Istanbul consulate in 2018, Washington decided that backing its
traditional West Asian ally in the particular case would be too costly.
US President Joe Biden promised to turn the kingdom into a
pariah during his presidential campaign and proceeded to release a declassified
US intelligence assessment, confirming the crown prince’s complicity in the
killing.
Though Bin Salman was able to avoid reckoning, his
reputation was severely damaged as someone who liked to tout himself as a bold
reformer pursuing new freedoms in the Saudi kingdom.
Meanwhile, the US has shown unequivocal support for Israel’s
killing campaign in Gaza, and refrained from bloviating its usual slogans of
human rights to let Israel finish its stated mission of eradicating Hamas.
Washington
seems willing to help the Israeli regime omit its opponents, not caring that it
has to stand against the entire world to make it happen.
The Khashoggi case was not an outlier. The US pulled the
plug on Riyadh when Yemen’s Ansarullah movement decided to attack Saudi
Arabia’s main oil processing facilities in 2019, making no concrete
efforts whatsoever to help its ally prop up its security apparatus. That’s
while the Democrats and Republicans are working in tandem to secure a US$14.5
billion military aid package for Israel, amid a budget deficit crisis in
home.
Gaza
war brings Saudis closer to China
Saudi Arabia had already begun to buttress its relations with China after getting
the stiff-arm from the US during the two instances. But the kingdom seems to
have shifted even more towards Beijing’s orbit with the occurrence of the
latest war in West Asia.
A delegation of Arab and Muslim ministers, including Saudi
Arabia’s Faisal bin Farhan Al-Saud, travelled to Beijing in November to push
for an end to the war in Gaza with China’s aid.
The move largely sidelined the US, which has been the target
of scathing criticism from its Arab allies since the beginning of the latest wave
of Israeli attacks on Gaza.
Operation
Al-Aqsa Storm seems to have defied previous predictions on many levels. Saudi
Arabia may have to recalibrate its foreign policies, considering the amount of
hate it may receive from Muslim masses across the world once it decides to move
forward with normalization talks with Israel. It might also be less willing
than before to count on the US as a reliable partner, given Washington’s
penchant for leaving Saudi Arabia alone, when a crisis strikes.
Courtesy: The Tehran Times