Ukraine peace talks in Jeddah

According to Saudi Gazette, National security advisers and representatives of foreign ministries of more than 40 countries concluded their meetings on resolution of the Ukrainian crisis in Jeddah on Sunday.

The Jeddah meetings came as a continuation of discussions on peace, hosted by the Danish capital Copenhagen last June, with the participation of senior officials from Ukraine, the G7 countries, the European Union, Saudi Arabia, Brazil, India, South Africa and Turkey.

During the meeting, the Ukrainian president proposed holding a peace summit that would endorse principles to support a settlement to end the war, most notably the full restoration of Ukraine's territorial integrity, the complete withdrawal of Russian forces, ensuring food and energy security, nuclear safety, and the release of all prisoners.

At the end of the very fruitful and open consultations, they agreed on the importance of continuing international consultations and exchanging opinions in order to build a common ground that will pave the way for peace. They also emphasized the importance of benefiting from views and positive suggestions made during the meeting.

On his part, Director of the Office of the Ukrainian President Andrei Yermak, who headed his country's delegation to the Jeddah meetings, said that the participants held very fruitful consultations on the basic principles on which a just and lasting peace should be built. In the meeting, representatives of each country were able to express their position and opinion.

Saudi Minister of State and Member of the Cabinet and National Security Advisor Musaed Al-Aiban chaired the meeting, which was also attended among others by the officials of the United Nations.

Saudi Arabia's hosting of the meeting comes as a continuation of the humanitarian initiatives and efforts being made in this context by Crown Prince and Prime Minister Mohammad bin Salman since March 2022. It is noteworthy that the Crown Prince made contacts with the Russian and Ukrainian leaderships since the early days of the crisis, and reiterated his country's willingness to carry out its good offices to contribute to reaching a solution, leading to lasting peace, and supports all efforts and initiatives aimed at mitigating the effects of the crisis and its humanitarian repercussions.

According to Saudi sources, the heads of the participating delegations concluded their main meetings on Saturday evening, while technical meetings of state representatives continued on Sunday for the purpose of upcoming coordination and cooperation.

The Ukrainian official Yermak said that the participants held very fruitful consultations on the basic principles on which a just and lasting peace should be built, during which representatives of each country were able to express their position and opinion. "The second meeting was held on the main principles for restoring sustainable and just peace for Ukraine, which began last June in Copenhagen," Yermak said in a statement published by the Ukrainian presidential website.

He pointed out that the Jeddah meetings were attended by more than 40 countries, which represent three times what was represented in the Copenhagen consultations, and this indicates the extraordinary interest of the world in establishing a sustainable and just peace.

“We had very fruitful consultations on the basic principles upon which a just and lasting peace should be built, and we held very honest and open talks, during which representatives of each country were able to express their position and opinion. There were different opinions, but all participants emphasized their countries’ commitment to the principles of peace, as well as to the Charter of the United Nations, international law, respect for the sovereignty of states and the inviolability of their territorial integrity,” he said.

Yermak pointed out that the meeting held in Jeddah was a step towards the practical implementation of the peace initiatives proposed by Ukraine, and each country participating in the consultations had the opportunity to show leadership in the global efforts for peace, and most of them have already defined their role in implementing certain points of the formula.

He also indicated that the parties agreed to continue working at various representative levels to bring about a just and comprehensive peace. In parallel, the Ukrainian delegation held a series of bilateral meetings on Sunday, in which it discussed with its partners the details of implementing peace and cooperation initiatives in this field.

 

Pakistan: Growing uncertainty about election

The developments on the weekend have introduced an element of uncertainty by bringing up the prospects of a delay in national elections.

It is believed that Pakistan may find it easier to comply with the ongoing IMF program under a caretaker setup, which is a plus. However, inordinate delays in holding elections may risk timely entry into a successor program which would be a key dampener.

Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has proposed to dissolve the National Assembly on August 9, 2023 three days before the government’s term will end. The timing is important as early dissolution allows for elections to be held within ninety days, instead of sixty days if assemblies complete their tenure. The members of the coming caretaker government have yet to be announced.

It has also been decided that elections will be held as per the new census which concluded earlier in the year (Pakistan’s population is now 241.49 million).

The initial reaction by the law minister as well as the Election Commission points towards a potential delay in elections, perhaps by a few months, subject to how quickly new constituency boundaries can be drawn up under the 2023 census. This brings up the prospects of an extended caretaker setup, as continues to be the case in Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa provinces.

The weekend developments include Imran Khan’s arrest following a lower court ruling in a graft case. Unlike in May, when Khan’s arrest was followed by public uproar, there has barely been any protest this time around.

Although, the ruling is likely to be challenged in higher courts, and may well be overturned, the writing is on the wall - Imran Khan is unlikely to be allowed to participate in elections whenever they do take place, with the next government likely to be led by either the PML-N or the PPP. 

The developments on the weekend have introduced an element of uncertainty by bringing up the prospects of a delay in national elections.

It is believed that Pakistan may find it easier to comply with the ongoing IMF program under a caretaker setup, which is a plus. However, inordinate delays in holding elections may risk timely entry into a successor program which would be a key dampener.

Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has proposed to dissolve the National Assembly on August 9, 2023 three days before the government’s term will end. The timing is important as early dissolution allows for elections to be held within ninety days, instead of sixty days if assemblies complete their tenure. The members of the coming caretaker government have yet to be announced.

It has also been decided that elections will be held as per the new census which concluded earlier in the year (Pakistan’s population is now 241.49 million).

The initial reaction by the law minister as well as the Election Commission points towards a potential delay in elections, perhaps by a few months, subject to how quickly new constituency boundaries can be drawn up under the 2023 census. This brings up the prospects of an extended caretaker setup, as continues to be the case in Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa provinces.

The weekend developments include Imran Khan’s arrest following a lower court ruling in a graft case. Unlike in May, when Khan’s arrest was followed by public uproar, there has barely been any protest this time around.

Although, the ruling is likely to be challenged in higher courts, and may well be overturned, the writing is on the wall - Imran Khan is unlikely to be allowed to participate in elections whenever they do take place, with the next government likely to be led by either the PML-N or the PPP. 

Khamenei representative meets Nasrallah

Seyed Hassan Ameli, the representative of the Leader of the Islamic Revolution to Ardebil Province, traveled to Lebanon and met with the Secretary General of Hezbollah, Sayyid Hassan Nasrallah. 

Ayatollah Ameli was accompanied by a group of clerics who are members of the Assembly of Experts. 

Iran’s Ambassador to Lebanon, Mojtaba Ameli, also attended the meeting, according to Tasnim. 

In the meeting, the historical relations between the two brotherly countries were discussed. 

Ayatollah Ameli has been rising to prominence in recent years as a result of tensions between Iran and the Republic of Azerbaijani over Israel’s presence in the South Caucasus nation. Ameli has also been at the center of Tehran’s messaging efforts to Baku over the latter’s relations with Israel. 

The Israeli Ambassador to the Republic of Azerbaijan, George Deek, has caused several uproars by taking controversial actions such as visiting the Iran-Azerbaijan border or alluding to Iran’s Azeri population.

Ayatollah Ameli responded in kind, visiting the Israel-Lebanon border.  In mid-July, Ayatollah Ameli, an ethnic Azeri, posed for a photo right on the Lebanon-Israel border.

“I greeted the martyrs of the Resistance by coming to an Israeli border area that is overlooking a settlement in the occupied territories,” he said. 

He also said that his move was a response to the Israeli ambassador to Azerbaijan. “The Israeli ambassador to Azerbaijan came close to our borders to tell us that ‘we’ve come very close to you.’

For me, that was difficult to tolerate. So, on my trip to Lebanon, I went to Maroun al-Ras and stood near the border area overlooking a Zionist settlement. And I cursed the killer of the Palestinians who has been shedding Muslims’ blood for 75 years,” Ayatollah Ameli said in a tweet. 

Later, when he came back to Ardebil, Ayatollah Ameli said he visited the Lebanon-Israel border so that the Israeli ambassadors to Azerbaijan know that his action does not go unanswered. 

 

 

Saudi Arabia asks its citizens to leave Lebanon

Saudi Embassy in Lebanon has warned the Saudi citizens from being present or approaching the areas that are witnessing armed conflicts in the country.

The embassy has asked Saudi citizens to leave Lebanon quickly, in addition to the importance of adhering to the decision of banning travel there.

In the event any emergency occurs, the embassy advised the citizens to contact them through the following numbers: The Embassy number: 009611762711; 009611762722 — Saudis affairs number: 0096178803388; 0096176026555 — the unified number for the Saudi affairs abroad: 00966920033334 — the embassy account on X app: @KSAembassyLB

Ukraine drone hits Russian oil tanker

A Ukrainian drone full of explosives struck a Russian fuel tanker overnight near a bridge linking Russia to annexed Crimea, the second such attack in 24 hours, both sides said on Saturday.

No one was hurt, but the Crimean Bridge and ferry transport were suspended for several hours, according to Russian-installed officials in Crimea, which Moscow seized from Ukraine in 2014.

A Ukrainian intelligence source told Reuters that the drone with 450 kg of explosives hit the SIG vessel as it transported fuel for the Russian military in Ukrainian territorial waters.

"The tanker was well loaded with fuel, so the 'fireworks' were seen from afar," the source said, of the joint operation by Ukraine's navy and security service.

Kyiv says destroying Russia's military infrastructure inside Russia or on Russian-controlled territory in Ukraine is crucial to its counteroffensive after the February 2022 invasion.

Another drone attack on Russia's navy base at Novorossiysk damaged a warship on Friday, the first time the Ukrainian navy had projected its power so far from its shores.

And a Ukrainian government agency warned on Saturday that six Russian Black Sea ports - Anapa, Novorossiysk, Gelendzhik, Tuapse, Sochi, and Taman - were in war risk area.

Moscow has bombed Ukrainian ports since its withdrawal last month from an UN-brokered deal to let Ukraine export grain.

The SIG tanker had been supplying oil to Russian troops in Syria, according to Vladimir Rogov, a Russian-appointed official in Ukraine's southeastern region of Zaporizhzhia.

The United States imposed sanctions on the tanker and its owner, St. Petersburg-based Transpetrochart, in 2019 for helping provide jet fuel in Syria.

Vasyl Malyuk, head of Ukraine's SBU security service, did not directly confirm the latest attack but said any incident with Russian ships or the Crimean Bridge was "an absolutely logical and efficient step towards the enemy".

"Moreover, such special operations are conducted in the territorial waters of Ukraine and are completely legal," Malyuk said on the Telegram messaging app.

Russia's Novorossiysk Maritime Rescue Coordination Centre was quoted by the RIA news agency as saying there was no fuel spill from the SIG, as the ship had been carrying only technical ballast. Recovery work was underway with two tugboats nearby.

Rogov posted an audio clip on Telegram in which the SIG requested a tow. He also posted pictures of what he described as shattered fixtures and equipment inside the vessel.

"The SIG tanker ... received a hole in the engine room near the waterline on the starboard side, preliminarily as a result of a sea drone attack," Russia's Federal Marine and River Transport agency said in a statement on Telegram.

The Moscow-installed authorities in Crimea said the bridge, which was completed by Russia in 2018 and has come under serious attack twice in the war, was not targeted.

 

Russia accuses JPMorgan not processing its grain payments

Russia, on Friday accused that the US bank, JPMorgan has stopped processing payments for the Russian Agricultural Bank. Russia demanded action, not promises, from Washington to help Russian grain and fertilizer reach global markets.

It may be recalled that JPMorgan has handled some Russian grain export payments for the past few months with reassurances from Washington. However, that cooperation stopped this week, Russia's Foreign Ministry said on Friday.

"The direct channel between the Russian Agricultural Bank and JPMorgan ... was closed on August 02," foreign ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova was quoted by Russian media as saying.

The United Nations, the US State Department and JPMorgan declined to comment.

Moscow had allowed the safe export of Ukraine grain via the Black Sea for the past year under a deal it quit on July 17. Russia has a list of demands it wants met before it will return to the arrangement.

Under a related pact - also brokered in July 2022 - UN officials agreed to help Russian food and fertilizer exports reach global markets.

"As soon as this is done, this deal will immediately be renewed," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters on Friday.

A key Russian demand has been the reconnection of the Russian Agricultural Bank to the SWIFT international payments system. It was cut off by the European Union in June 2022 following Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

Zakharov, the foreign ministry spokeswoman, said the West and the United Nations tried to present (payment processing by JPMorgan) as a working alternative to SWIFT.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken told reporters on Thursday that Washington would continue to do whatever is necessary to ensure Russia can freely export food if the Black Sea grain deal was revived.

While Russian exports of food and fertilizer are not subject to Western sanctions imposed after Russia's February 2022 invasion of Ukraine, Moscow has said restrictions on payments, logistics and insurance have hindered shipments.

Top US State Department sanctions official James O'Brien said on Friday that Russia needed to be clear about what it was asking for and what constituted success, suggesting it should be how much food and fertilizer reaches the world.

"It has put forth a number of different demands and all of them having to do with various Russian institutions not getting services from the private sector," he told reporters. "We have made clear that we're prepared to help on any of these matters."

"Russia is exporting record amounts of grain," O'Brien said. "So if the measurement is food for the globe ... Russia's complaints amount to minor allegations about a system that is working very well."

Russia may export at least 55 million tons of grain in the 2023/24 marketing season, slightly less than the estimated record-breaking 57 million tons in the 2022/23 season, Russia's Grain Union said last month.

Ukrainian exports for the 2022/23 season were almost 49 million tons, according to Agriculture Ministry data.

Nearly 33 million tons of that was shipped under the Black Sea deal.

Western countries have accused Russia of using food as a weapon of war by quitting the Black Sea deal, which had helped bring down global food prices, and then carrying out repeated air strikes on Ukrainian ports and grain stores.

Russia has complained that not enough Ukrainian grain was getting to the poorest countries. The United Nations has argued that the deal helped everyone because it brought prices down 23% from a record high in the weeks following Russia's invasion.

 

OPEC Plus keeps oil output levels unchanged

The Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) of OPEC Plus affirmed on Friday the current levels of oil production of the group and didn’t make any recommendation to change the output.

Saudi Minister of Energy Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman chaired the 49th Meeting of the JMMC via videoconferencing.

The JMMC reviewed the crude oil production data for the months of May and June 2023 and noted the overall conformity for participating OPEC and non-OPEC countries of the Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). The committee urged all the participating countries to conform and fully adhere to the compensation mechanism.

The committee reaffirmed the commitment of its member countries to the DoC which extends to the end of 2024 as agreed in the 35th OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting (ONOMM) on June 04, 2023. It also decided to adjust the frequency of the meetings to every two months for the JMMC and the authority of the JMMC to hold additional meetings, or to request an OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting as agreed on in the 33rd OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting (ONOMM) on October 05, 2022.

The committee will continue to closely assess market conditions noting the willingness of the DoC member countries to address market developments and their readiness to take additional measures at any time in tandem with the strong cohesion of OPEC and non-OPEC countries.

The committee also expressed its full recognition and support for the efforts of Saudi Arabia to support the stability of the oil market and reiterated its appreciation for the Kingdom’s additional voluntary cut of one million barrels per day which it extended to the month of September.

The committee acknowledged the Russian Federation's additional voluntary reduction of exports by 300,000 barrels per day for the month of September.

The next meeting of the JMMC is scheduled for October 04, 2023.