It is believed that Pakistan may find it easier to comply with the ongoing IMF program under a caretaker setup, which is a plus. However, inordinate delays in holding elections may risk timely entry into a successor program which would be a key dampener.
Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has proposed to dissolve the National Assembly on August 9, 2023 three days before the government’s term will end. The timing is important as early dissolution allows for elections to be held within ninety days, instead of sixty days if assemblies complete their tenure. The members of the coming caretaker government have yet to be announced.
It has also been decided that elections will be held as per the new census which concluded earlier in the year (Pakistan’s population is now 241.49 million).
The initial reaction by the law minister as well as the Election Commission points towards a potential delay in elections, perhaps by a few months, subject to how quickly new constituency boundaries can be drawn up under the 2023 census. This brings up the prospects of an extended caretaker setup, as continues to be the case in Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa provinces.
The weekend developments include Imran Khan’s arrest following a lower court ruling in a graft case. Unlike in May, when Khan’s arrest was followed by public uproar, there has barely been any protest this time around.
Although, the ruling is likely to be challenged in higher courts, and may well be overturned, the writing is on the wall - Imran Khan is unlikely to be allowed to participate in elections whenever they do take place, with the next government likely to be led by either the PML-N or the PPP.
The developments on the weekend have introduced an element of uncertainty by bringing up the prospects of a delay in national elections.
It is believed that Pakistan may find it easier to comply with the ongoing IMF program under a caretaker setup, which is a plus. However, inordinate delays in holding elections may risk timely entry into a successor program which would be a key dampener.
Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has proposed to dissolve the National Assembly on August 9, 2023 three days before the government’s term will end. The timing is important as early dissolution allows for elections to be held within ninety days, instead of sixty days if assemblies complete their tenure. The members of the coming caretaker government have yet to be announced.
It has also been decided that elections will be held as per the new census which concluded earlier in the year (Pakistan’s population is now 241.49 million).
The initial reaction by the law minister as well as the Election Commission points towards a potential delay in elections, perhaps by a few months, subject to how quickly new constituency boundaries can be drawn up under the 2023 census. This brings up the prospects of an extended caretaker setup, as continues to be the case in Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa provinces.
The weekend developments include Imran Khan’s arrest following a lower court ruling in a graft case. Unlike in May, when Khan’s arrest was followed by public uproar, there has barely been any protest this time around.
Although, the ruling is likely to be challenged in higher courts, and may well be overturned, the writing is on the wall - Imran Khan is unlikely to be allowed to participate in elections whenever they do take place, with the next government likely to be led by either the PML-N or the PPP.
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