Muslims urged to hold fast to unity

Eminent Saudi Scholar and Member of the Council of Senior Scholars Sheikh Youssef Bin Muhammad Bin Saeed urged the faithful not to be carried away by malicious campaigns and rumors.

Delivering the Arafat sermon at the Namirah Mosque here on Tuesday, Sheikh Bin Saeed said that the Islamic Shariah forbade Muslims from following rumors and disinformation that aim to divide their ranks.

“The believers are warned against malicious campaigns in all their forms and manifestations, aimed at dividing their ranks and inciting one group against another,” he said in the sermon.

Sheikh Bin Saeed called on the pilgrims to hold fast to unity and eschew discord.

He emphasized that the difference in languages, colors and ethnicities does not justify falling into discords and divisions. Rather, it is a sign from the signs of God in this universe.

Sheikh Bin Saeed noted that the Islamic texts reaffirm the command for unity, love, harmony, and prohibit disputes, divisions, and differences.

“The Prophet (peace be upon him) has commanded his followers to be united and cooperative, and prohibited them from discords and conflicts. Thus, through him, Allah has united his followers' hearts,” he said.

Sheikh Bin Saeed warned, “When unity is broken, personal whims and animosities prevail, and intentions become conflicting, resulting in the shedding of forbidden blood.”

Underscoring the significance of holding fast to unity and closing ranks, the preacher said that the Hand of Allah is with the collective body of Muslims (Jamaa’h) while Satan is with those who separate themselves from the Jamaa’h.

The significance of unity becomes apparent through the negative consequences of division and differences, affecting individuals, families, and societies, he emphasized.

“From this standpoint, Islam has implemented appropriate preventative measures and robust defensive strategies to halt the influence of destructive intentions and acts of sabotage that aim to tear apart communities.

“It does that by erecting a resilient barrier that inhibits the disintegration of its structure and the destabilization of its pillars, at the individual, familial, societal, national, and even global levels,” he said while reminding that God has commanded the Muslims, in times of dispute, to return back to the Holy Qur'an and the Sunnah (Tradition of the Prophet).

God has commanded them to maintain good conduct, interact with one another in an exemplary manner, and demonstrate compassion and mercy towards one another.

“In order to achieve the objective of unifying our word, Islam has emphasized the importance of strengthening social, familial, and spiritual bonds.

“It commanded us to uphold ties of kinship, and clarified the rights of spouses, parents, children, and daughters. Likewise, it commanded us to show kindness and goodness to relatives, neighbors, and the needy,” he said.

He also pointed out that Islam came to remind those who are in conflict with their brothers to reconcile and encourage them towards rectification in times of disputes.

Underscoring the need to stand united, Sheikh Bin Saeed made the pilgrims aware of the fact that God has prescribed several collective acts of obedience, such as the pilgrims’ gathering today on the plains of Arafat and their congregational prayers on Fridays.

“One of the means to foster unity is the social solidarity mandated by Islam, which includes the payment of Zakat and other charitable contributions, establishment of trusts, and giving of voluntary alms,” he said.

Sheikh Bin Saeed’s sermon focused on the universal message of Islam, underlined by the Prophet in his farewell Hajj.

He quoted the following Tradition of the Prophet in this regard, “O people! Indeed, your Lord is One. Your father (Adam) is one. No Arab has superiority over a non-Arab, nor does a non-Arab have superiority over an Arab. Similarly, no white person is superior to a black person, nor is a black person superior to a white person, except by piety. I have certainly conveyed the message. Indeed, God has made inviolable between yourselves your blood, your wealth, your honor just as He has made this day of yours inviolable, in this inviolable land of yours and in this inviolable month of yours.”

OPEC Plus oil quota reform increases dominance of gulf producers

Saudi Arabian Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman earlier this month outlined one of the biggest reforms at OPEC in recent years and presented it as a reward for countries that invest in their oil industry.

The change clears the way for giving larger production quotas to OPEC Gulf members such as Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait at the expense of African nations such as Nigeria and Angola.

Production quotas and baselines, from which production cuts are calculated, have been a sensitive subject within OPEC for decades as most producers want a higher quota so they can earn more from oil exports.

The shake-up is likely to become more extreme in the next few years as Middle Eastern state oil majors ramp up investments while production falls in African nations that have struggled to attract foreign investment.

Gulf producers, the holders of the little spare capacity in the global oil market, have long dominated OPEC.

Their power and influence has already increased in the last 15 years with their rising capacity, while African production has fallen as foreign investments have shrunk.

Unlike Gulf producers, African producers rely heavily on investment from international oil companies. Those companies have shunned Africa in recent years in favour of investment in the US shale patch and in prolific giant oilfields elsewhere such as offshore Brazil and Guyana.

In May, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Kuwait's share of total OPEC production was over 10% higher than it was 15 years ago at 55%, according to OPEC production figures. Nigeria and Angola's total share over the same period has shrunk by over 3% to below 9%.

For Nigeria, capacity continues to be restricted by operational and security issues, combined with low investment levels, leading to decline, analysts at consultancy Wood Mackenzie said.

New field developments and recent discoveries in Angola will not be enough to stem long term capacity declines, they added.

In contrast, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have plans in place to significantly boost their production capacity to 13 million bpd and 5 million bpd, respectively, by 2027 from current levels of about 12 and 4 million.

Fellow Gulf producer Kuwait on June 18 said it would boost its production capacity by 200,000 bpd by 2025 to reach 3 million bpd.

Capacity additions from the three Gulf countries over the 2020-25 period total a combined 1.2 million bpd, double the capacity that Nigeria and Angola are projected to lose over the same period, Reuters calculations find.

The two West African countries have lost nearly a quarter of their production capacity since 2019 as a result of underinvestment and security issues.

At its June 04 meeting, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies, led by Russia, (OPEC+) overhauled production quotas for the majority of its members.

"In the final analysis what this agreement will achieve for all of us is that those who invest, not this year, but the years to come, 2024 and 2025 and moving forward, there will be a recognition for their investment," Prince Abdulaziz said.

While the majority of members of OPEC Plus got a lower production target, the UAE's was higher.

Richard Bronze, Head of Geopolitics at Energy Aspects, said one of the reasons behind the change was to address OPEC's previous credibility issues when policy changes were not necessarily reflected on oil markets.

"It meant that the actual supply increase or decrease resulting for a quota change would be far smaller than the announced figure, fuelling doubts in the market about the ability of the group to manage market fundamentals," he said.

 

 

Three scenarios surrounding Wagner mutiny

While the western analysts are offering all sorts of rationales, our readers are suggested to also consider three likely scenarios about the rebellion of Wagner's forces against the Russian army.

1- A possible deception plan by the Russian intelligence apparatus with the aim of diverting and draining the power and energy of enemy intelligence organizations as well as rival countries. In this case, the difference in the media narrative will deepen, some local operational tension will intensify, but from a functional point of view, the tension will not elevate to a strategic level.

2- Loyalty is what separates the Wagner unit and the Minister of Defense and the Chief of General Staff of the Russian Army. The former may be fake, the latter close to realty. In this case, based on the Russian approach and security-defense strategy, Prigozhin and his loyalists will be dealt with gradually but decisively.

3- A NATO-backed intelligence operation with the aim of disintegrating and weakening Russian forces. Prigozhin has coordinated with a foreign party. In this context, Wagner’s declared dispute is about greater loyalty to Russia, the effectiveness and efficiency of existing Russian defense and security approaches.

Any relationship with a Russian adversary will not flourish because it will highlight betrayal to Russia in alliance with an enemy.

This will lead to the collapse among the ranks of Wagner's forces. Part of NATO's goal will be achieved, but at the end of the day, it will consolidate Russia's defense and security superiority.

The important point is that Wagner, which is strongly dependent on the Russian defense sector, at least in the field of ammunition and logistics in the battlefield, will not be able to resist the Russia's powerful military.

 

Xi Jinping to fully support Vladimir Putin

China has voiced support for Russia after a short-lived insurrection posed the gravest challenge to the 23-year rule of Vladimir Putin, a close partner of Chinese leader Xi Jinping in his push for a new world order and strategic alignment against the United States.

A day after Wagner mercenary fighters turned back from their march toward Moscow, ending a brief and chaotic uprising by warlord Yevgeny Prigozhin, Beijing released its first comment on what Putin had called an armed rebellion.

“This is Russia’s internal affair,” a Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson said in a terse statement posted online late on Sunday night.

“As Russia’s friendly neighbor and comprehensive strategic partner of coordination for the new era, China supports Russia in maintaining national stability and achieving development and prosperity,” it said.

Beijing’s carefully crafted public comment came well after the brief mutiny had dissipated, with Prigozhin agreeing on Saturday to pull back his fighters in a deal with the Kremlin that would reportedly see him enter into exile in Belarus.

It also came after Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Andrey Rudenko flew to Beijing to meet with Chinese officials on Sunday, where the two sides reaffirmed their close partnership and political trust.

China’s Foreign Minister Qin Gang and Rudenko exchanged views on “Sino-Russian relations and international and regional issues of common concern,” the Chinese Foreign Ministry said in a one-line statement posted on its website, with a photo showing the pair walking side by side while smiling.

“The Chinese side expressed support for the efforts of the leadership of the Russian Federation to stabilize the situation in the country in connection with the events of June 24, and reaffirmed its interest in strengthening the unity and further prosperity of Russia,” the Russian ministry said in a statement.

According to the Chinese readout, Ma told Rudenko that under the leadership of Xi and Putin, the mutual political trust and cooperation between China and Russia had grown continuously.

“Under the complex and grim international situation, it is necessary to follow the important consensus reached by the two leaders, communicate in a timely manner, ensure the stable and long-term relationship between the two countries, and safeguard the common interests of both sides,” Ma was quoted as saying.

Xi, China’s most powerful leader in decades, has developed a close personal rapport with Putin over their shared ambition to challenge the US-led global order. The two autocratic leaders declared a friendship with “no limits” in February 2022, shortly before Putin launched his war on Ukraine.

Despite its claims of neutrality, China has refused to condemn the invasion and instead provided much-needed diplomatic and economic support for Russia, a position that has alarmed Western nations, especially in Europe.

In March, Xi and Putin made a sweeping affirmation of their alignment across a host of issues – and shared mistrust of the United States – during the Chinese leader’s first visit to Russia since the invasion.

“Right now there are changes – the likes of which we haven’t seen for 100 years – and we are the ones driving these changes together,” Xi told Putin as they bid farewell at the door of the Kremlin.

Three months on, the co-driving force for Xi’s vision has seen his grip on power severely challenged by an extraordinary show of defiance, shattering the veneer of total control the Russian leader has struggled to maintain.

“Although Russia’s nightmare came to an end temporarily yesterday, this incident will definitely hurt Russia and Putin’s image,” Jin Canrong, an international relations professor at Renmin University in Beijing, wrote Sunday on Weibo, where the Wagner insurrection was a top trending topic over the weekend.

Commenting on Twitter Saturday before Prigozhin aborted his insurrection, Hu Xijin, the former editor of the nationalist Global Times, said the “armed rebellion has made the Russian political situation cross the tipping point.”

“Regardless of his outcome, Russia cannot return to the country it was before the rebellion anymore,” he said in the Tweet, which was later deleted. 

 

Modi visit fuels concerns Biden putting human rights on back burner

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’ state visit is fueling concerns from activist groups in the United States that the Biden administration has put human rights on the back burner.

During the visit, President Biden held back from public criticism of Modi’s handling of human rights and democratic values — issues that led a handful of progressive lawmakers to boycott his speech to a joint address to Congress.

The president, instead, rolled out the red carpet for Modi with a celebratory welcome and hug, a 21-gun salute and a state dinner with notable White House guests, a charm offensive underscoring India’s economic and foreign policy importance to the United States.

Biden had previously come under criticism last July for a fist bump with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman during a visit to Jeddah that advocates argue effectively ignored the Saudi government’s human rights abuses.

White House officials contend that tough conversations with allies behind closed doors — including Modi — are more productive than grandstanding and scolding in public. 

“The prime minister and I had a good discussion about democratic values. … We’re straightforward with each other, and — and we respect each other,” Biden said during a press conference alongside Modi at the White House on Thursday. 

But critics say that puts little pressure on governments and leaders like Modi to actually deliver on reforms.

The Indian leader in particular is criticized for failing to counter anti-Muslim hate and is cracking down on civil liberties and press freedoms — issues that strike at the core of respect for democratic governments. 

“I would argue that the administration needs to be more explicit about backsliding allies, practically recommitting themselves to fundamental freedoms and the respect for human rights as the basis for an evolving global order,” said Tess McEnery, who previously served as Biden’s director for democracy and human rights at the National Security Council.

During his campaign, Biden put human rights at the center of his foreign policy messaging and identified strengthening democracy — at home and abroad — as key to pushing back against autocratic governments such as Russia and China.

Yet in pushing back on Russia and China, the US also needs allies. And that has complicated efforts with human rights.

The White House sees India as an indispensable partner in its strategy with China; its population of 1.4 billion people is the only market that can compete with Beijing’s.

India represents a needed partner in the administration’s efforts to diversify supply chains away from China for critical materials such as semiconductors and rare earth minerals that are the building blocks of those technologies.  

Modi recognized the power that India holds during his address to Congress on Thursday.

“When defense and aerospace in India grow, industries in the states of Washington, Arizona, Georgia, Alabama, South Carolina, and Pennsylvania thrive. … When Indians fly more, a single order for aircrafts creates more than a million jobs in 44 states in America,” he said. “When an American phone maker invests in India, it creates an entire ecosystem of jobs and opportunities in both countries.”

The most robust applause from Congress came when Modi said the US was one of India’s most important defense partners — an important statement given American efforts to turn New Delhi away from its reliance on Russia’s defense industry and have it serve a bulwark against China’s growing military.

The US is home to a more than an Indian-American community of more than 4.5 million people — a key voting bloc that the president hopes to hold onto ahead of what is likely to be a fraught 2024 presidential election. 

“I think that President Biden is eager not to cede any of the, kind of, Indian-American community vote to the Republican Party,” said Daniel Markey, senior adviser on South Asia at the United States Institute of Peace (USIP).

Republicans and Democrats in Congress are largely united in supporting a robust US and Indian partnership. A bipartisan and bicameral grouping introduced legislation Thursday to fast-track weapons sales to India in recognition of Modi’s visit.

And while more than 70 House and Senate lawmakers raised concerns over Modi’s human rights record in a letter to Biden ahead of the visit, only a little more than a handful of progressive Democratic lawmakers boycotted the prime minister’s speech. 

“We are told that we must now turn a blind eye to the repression because of foreign policy concerns, even though human rights are supposed to be at the center of our foreign policy,”Ilhan Omar said during a policy briefing she hosted with human rights advocates after Modi’s address, which she boycotted. 

Among the most pressing criticisms against Modi’s rule is the criminal conviction against Indian opposition leader Rahul Gandhi, who was sentenced to two years in prison for negatively using Modi’s surname during a political rally in 2019.

 

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Advocates have also warned about freedom of speech and press freedoms in India in the wake of a tax raid on the offices of the BBC in India in March, and cases of journalists being jailed.

Freedom House, a nongovernmental organization that tracks democratic freedoms globally, rated India as partly free in its Freedom in the World report for 2023. The group claimed Modi’s government and his Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party has presided over discriminatory policies and a rise in persecution affecting the Muslim population.

“The constitution guarantees civil liberties including freedom of expression and freedom of religion, but harassment of journalists, nongovernmental organizations, and other government critics has increased significantly under Modi,” the group wrote. 

Jim McGovern, co-chairman of the Tom Lantos Human Rights Commission, argued that a balance can be met between calling out human rights concerns while also supporting the US-Indian relationship. 

“It’s because we value our friendship with the Indian people that we also have to speak the truth about human rights abuses in India that are ongoing, well-documented by credible observers and deeply troubling,” he said at the policy briefing hosted by Omar.  

“We don’t raise these issues to discredit India,” he continued. “We raise them because we know from our own experience that if human rights problems are not confronted and resolved, they will fester and deepen and undermine a country’s promise.” 

Markey, of the USIP, said the Biden administration prepared for blowback over the decision to keep criticisms against Modi in private, but added that its excessive references to sharing appreciation for democratic governance did itself no favors.

“I think they went even farther than maybe they needed to do, for Indian consumption,” he said. 

“They leaned into the shared-democracy issue, rather than pulling back from it,” Markey added. “They gave a lot of ammunition to those who would suggest that this is just pure hypocrisy at this point, rather than kind of edging around it.”

McEnery, who is now the executive director of the Project on Middle East Democracy, said the Biden administration needs to elevate defending democracy and human rights to an “interest” more than a value.

That would mean doing trade and economic deals centered on good governance principles, she said, or reforming arms and security relationships based on human rights. 

“I saw this firsthand a lot, where many good, hard-working people inside every arm of the US government, including the National Security Council, tried to make the case for democracy and human rights as a vital national security interest,” she said. “And I would see that shot down time and again by others throughout the government.” 

 

 

 

 

Israel reboots fiercely opposed judicial campaign

Israeli lawmakers on Sunday began debating a bill that would limit the Supreme Court's powers, rebooting a fiercely opposed judicial overhaul instigated by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's religious-nationalist coalition.

Anti-government demonstrations had prompted Netanyahu to suspend his judicial drive in March to allow compromise talks with opposition parties. He declared those talks fruitless last week and ordered some of the legislation to be revived.

The proposed changes, which include curbing on the court's ability to rule against the government, had sparked frequent street protests before the March suspension. On Saturday night anti-overhaul activists blocked a major Tel Aviv highway.

Coalition lawmakers have indicated that the new bill would be a far softer version of previous proposals that had sought to almost totally roll back the Supreme Court's power to rule against the executive.

The opposition, however, says the new bill would still open the door to corruption.

"You are renewing a legislation blitz meant to destroy the justice system's independence and badly hurt Israeli democracy's delicate checks and balances," Labour lawmaker Gilad Kariv said as the debate began.

Opposition leader Yair Lapid on Twitter urged Netanyahu to stop the legislation and revive negotiations "until we reach agreements that will safeguard democracy and prevent a national disaster".

The proposed judicial overhaul has also stirred Western concern over Israel's democratic health and spooked investors. Critics see it as an attempt to curb court independence by Netanyahu, who is on trial on graft charges that he denies.

The coalition says its goal is to balance the powers of the government, legislature and judiciary by reining in a Supreme Court they see as too interventionist.

 

Iranian oil output increases by 350,000 bpd

According to a report by the International Energy Agency (IEA) Iran’s crude oil output has increased by about 350,000 barrels per day (bpd) since the beginning of 2023, despite the US sanctions targeting the country’s oil sector.

“Despite tough financial restrictions, Iran managed to increase crude oil output by about 130,000 bpd in 2022 to an average 2.55 million bpd, and by 350,000 bpd since the beginning of this year,” the IEA said in its latest report dubbed Oil 2023.

The report argued that Iran remains a wildcard for world oil markets, and if it is released from sanctions, production could ramp up gradually by roughly 900,000 bpd to reach the capacity of 3.8 million bpd.

Higher exports and domestic throughput have pushed Iranian crude production up to around 2.9 million bpd in May 2023, it added.

Earlier, Bloomberg reported that Iran has been shipping the highest amount of crude in almost five years despite US sanctions.

Bloomberg cited energy analysts as saying that Iran’s oil exports have surged to the highest level since the US unilaterally re-imposed sanctions on the country in 2018.

The crude shipments have doubled since last autumn to reach 1.6 million barrels a day in May 2023, according to the report.

A Reuters report said on July 16, 2022 that Iranian crude shipments continued to rise in 2023 with higher shipments to China, Syria, and Venezuela. The report quoted consultants, shipping data, and a source familiar with the matter.

A large chunk of Iran’s crude oil goes to China which is the world’s major importer of energy. Several European customers including Germany, Spain, and Bulgaria also imported oil from Iran.

The United States, under former president Donald Trump, abandoned the nuclear deal with the Islamic Republic, formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), in May 2018 and reinstated unilateral sanctions that the agreement had lifted.

Tehran's oil exports have been limited since May 2018. However, the exports have risen steadily during the term of current US President, Joe Biden.

The crude exports exceeded 1.5 million bpd in May 2023, the highest monthly rate since 2018, Reuters reported quoting Kpler, a major international tanker-tracking service.

The exports were roughly 2.5 million bpd in 2018, before the US withdrawal from the 2015 nuclear agreement.

Iran said in May it has boosted its crude output to above three million bpd. That's about three percent of global supply and would be the highest since 2018, according to figures from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).

SVB International, a consultant, estimates crude production hit 3.04 million bpd in May, up from 2.66 million bpd in January. Exports of crude and condensate were 1.93 million bpd in May, according to the report.

"Sanctions are in place but perhaps they are not fully implemented or monitored," said Sara Vakhshouri of SVB.

The recently published figures are the latest sign that US sanctions on Iran have failed to cut the country’s oil revenues to zero, an objective frequently stated by former and current US administration officials.

They also vindicate efforts by Iran in recent years to rely more on diplomatic and economic resources to circumvent US sanctions rather than to submit to Washington’s pressure to scale back its nuclear, defense, and foreign policy programs in return for an easing of the sanctions.

In May, senior US Republican Senator Lindsey Graham confessed to the ineffectiveness of the sanctions that have been unilaterally imposed on Iran.

Graham slammed the Biden administration for failing to stop Iran’s oil exports.

“Iranians are making more money under sanctions not less and China is the biggest reason we're not doing a damn thing about it,” he reportedly said.