What is the fate of US dollar?

The share of US dollar reserves held in central banks fell to 59% –its lowest level in 25 years – during the fourth quarter of 2020, according to the IMF’s Currency Composition of Official Foreign Exchange Reserves (COFER) survey. Some analysts say this partly reflects the declining role of the US dollar in the global economy.

Economic analysts expect that the US dollar’s share of global reserves will continue to fall as emerging market and developing economy central banks seek further diversification of the currency composition of their reserves. A few countries, such as Russia, have already announced their intention to do so.

On July 01, 1944, as the Second World War raged in Europe and the Pacific, delegates from 44 countries met at the secluded Mount Washington Hotel in Bretton Woods, New Hampshire.

This gave birth to ‘Bretton Woods Agreement’ to create a new world order in the post-World War II era. The agreement instilled the dollar as the de facto global currency.

Under the agreement gold was the basis for the US dollar and other currencies were pegged to the US dollar value. By 1971, former US President Richard Nixon ended the dollar’s convertibility to gold as US balance of payments deficits led to foreign-held dollars exceeding the US gold stock, implying that the US could not fulfill its obligation to redeem dollars for gold any longer.

Although the Bretton Woods was short-lived, the dollar standard remained as the currency for international trade and the price of the commodity that made the global wheels run, price of crude oil was fixed in dollars.

Today the dollar reigns supreme. The world’s biggest economy can print greenbacks at will to save itself from budget deficits, can lower or hike federal reserve interest rates to control the price of global crude and other commodities, can manipulate interest rates to pressure emerging and poor economies that hold their foreign reserves in the Greenback.

Recent US Federal Reserve’s historic interest rate rises raised indebtedness of emerging economies. The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) members are exploring how to promote the use of local currencies in their bilateral trade.

According to the IMF the greenback’s share of global foreign-exchange reserves has extended a two-decade decline, but it’s still used more than all other currencies combined.

The dollar continues to play the role of number one global currency as the American economy has been producing a shrinking share of global output over the last two decades.

Chinese trade and lending have been expanding in recent years as the renminbi (also known as yuan) use has risen.

With China’s share of global goods trade now around 15 percent, the renminbi’s reach will expand. The world’s second largest economy and the largest consumer of crude is bound to challenge the dollar’s hegemony with renminbi.

Kicking off his first visit since taking office in January 2023 to China, Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula de Silva attacked the US dollar hegemony in international trade, asking “why can’t we do trade based on our own currencies?”

Lula called on developing nations to work towards replacing US dollar with their own currencies in international trade. He called on BRICS (acronym for five regional economies: Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) to come up with their own alternative currency for use of trade.

Prior to Lula’s visit, China and Brazil agreed to settle trades in each other’s currencies. France also recently conducted its first liquefied natural gas sale in renminbi.

The rise of the Chinese currency will take some time as only three percent of central bank reserves are in renminbi. The Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT) puts global transactions in renminbi at 2.5%, compared to 39.4% for the dollar and 35.89% for the euro.

The US economic sanctions on many nations have prompted them to use alternative currencies and even barter trade for exchange of goods.

After sanctions were applied to Russia following the Ukrainian conflict and simultaneously many Chinese companies were sanctioned by US and EU, transactions between the two neighbors shifted to renminbi.

Official data shows yuan became the most widely used currency for cross-border transactions in China overtaking the dollar for the first time.

Imports of Russian oil, piped-gas, coal and some metals from its neighbor were settled in renminbi. According to Reuters, the bilateral trade stands roughly at US$88 billion. This accelerates China’s efforts to internationalize its currency.

Iran and India established a rupee payment mechanism to eliminate dollar transactions. The state-owned United Commercial Bank (UCO) has been the primary payment settlement bank for India-Iran trade ties due to US sanctions on Iran.

The payment mechanism to import crude from Iran had provided the state-owned lender good chunk of interest-free floating fund, which helped it reduce its cost of funds.

Last year in a meeting between Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian and his Indian counterpart Dr. Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, Abdollahian pointed out that there are existing mechanisms within the framework of international law which can help in reviving the banking and financial interaction, pointing out that Tehran has implemented such a mechanism with a dozen countries already.

A landmark agreement was signed by Jaishankar and visiting Russian deputy prime minister Denis Manturov on April 18, 2023 in New Delhi, where India agreed to adopt the Russian SPFS financial messaging system for making banking payments to Russia.

The deal also allows acceptance of Indian Ru-Pay cards and India’s Unified Payment Interface (UPI) in Russia, and the Russian MIR cards and Fast Payments Systems (FPS) in India.

In 2022 UCO Bank received the necessary approval from the regulator – the Reserve Bank of India – to open a special rupee account with Russia’s Gazprombank to facilitate trade between the two countries.

The British pound sterling, the oldest global currency still used today, anchored the global economy, until its fall in the early, mid and late 20th century.

The imminent sudden decline of the Greeenback is one of those things that can take every analyst by surprise.

The dollar’s share of global foreign exchange reserves fell from 70% in 1999 to below 59% in the last quarter of 2021, extending a two-decade decline according to IMF’s Currency Composition of Official Foreign Exchange Reserves data.

The greatest threat to dollar comes from central bank digital currencies, which can provide more efficient ways to settle transactions. The US is waking up to this danger, but should accelerate efforts on digitizing the dollar.

 

World must condemn Ben-Gvir

Israel's National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir visited the Temple Mount on Sunday morning, two days after Jerusalem Day. He said, "I am happy to go up to the Temple Mount, the most important place for the people of Israel."

"It should be said that the police are doing a wonderful job here and once again proving who the master in Jerusalem is. All the threats of Hamas will not change anything; we are the masters of Jerusalem and the entire Land of Israel."

Ben-Gvir also referenced ongoing tensions surrounding the upcoming votes on the national budget, saying "We need to remember our brothers in the Negev and the Galilee. In the upcoming budget, we must invest in the Negev and the Galilee. Jerusalem is our soul, the Negev and the Galilee is our soul, we must invest, we must act there, we must be the owners of both the Negev and the Galilee, and the foundation of this is the budget."

The head of the Temple Mount Administration, Rabbi Shimshon Elbaum, welcomed the visit stating, "I congratulate National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir for his ascent to the Temple Mount, which gives meaning to the slogan 'The Temple Mount is in our hands' which recently turned 56 years old."

"Ben-Gvir has been active since his youth in favor of Jewish pilgrimages to the Temple Mount, and since taking office has already caused significant improvements, removing hundreds of harassers and strengthening Israel's rule on the Temple Mount."

The Tag Meir organization condemned the visit, stating "Ben-Gvir and a friend of his want to forcefully change the status quo on the Temple Mount and set Jerusalem and the Middle East on fire. Until when will we continue to pay the price of the irresponsible appointment of Ben-Gvir to the position of national security minister of the State of Israel?"

The spokesman for the Palestinian Authority presidency, Nabil Abu Rudeineh, called Ben-Gvir's visit to the site a "flagrant attack on al-Aqsa" warning that it would have "serious repercussions," according to the Palestinian WAFA news agency.

"The entry of the extremist Ben-Gvir at an early hour, like thieves, into the al-Aqsa Mosque square will not change reality and will not impose Israeli sovereignty over it," added Abu Rudeineh.

The Jordanian Foreign Ministry condemned the visit in the strongest terms, calling it a dangerous and unacceptable escalation and a flagrant and unacceptable violation of international law, and of the historical and legal status quo in Jerusalem and its sanctities.

The ministry added that the continuous violations and attacks on the Islamic and Christian sanctities in Jerusalem, in conjunction with the continuation of unilateral measures of settlement expansion and continuous incursions into the occupied Palestinian territories, warns of further escalation, and represents a dangerous trend that the international community must work to stop immediately."

The Turkish Foreign Ministry also condemned Ben-Gvir's visit to the Temple Mount on Sunday, calling it a clear breach of the international law.

"It is in no way acceptable that Israeli government members challenge the historical status of Al-Haram Al-Sharif (the name commonly used in Arabic for the Temple Mount) in this manner and commit inflammatory and fascistic actions," added the ministry.

"We call on the Israeli government once again to act responsibly, and to put an end to all kinds of provocative actions violating the historical status of Al-Haram Al-Sharif that is based on the international law."

The Saudi Foreign Ministry condemned the visit as well, stating, "The ministry affirms that these systematic practices are considered a flagrant violation of all international norms and covenants, and a provocation of the feelings of Muslims around the world. The ministry holds the Israeli occupation forces fully responsible for the repercussions of the continuation of these violations.”

Hamas's spokesman for the city of Jerusalem, Mohammed Hamada, stressed that the movement would not leave al-Aqsa alone and warned that Israel will bear responsibility for the barbaric incursions of its ministers and herds of settlers.

Hamada called on Palestinians and Arabs in Jerusalem, the West Bank and Israeli territory to intensify their presence in al-Aqsa in order confront all attempts to desecrate and Judaize it.

Palestinian media outlets affiliated with Hamas, including the Shehab news agency, published a graphic showing Ben-Gvir with a red target over him and the words "Ben-Gvir is a target for our heroes and the wrath of our revolutionaries."

On Thursday, Jewish visitors to the Temple Mount raised the Israeli flag while singing "Hatikva," as over a thousand Jews visited the complex to mark Jerusalem Day. Despite Jerusalem Day officially being on Friday, most of the festivities for the day were moved to Thursday to avoid a desecration of the Shabbat.

Video from the scene showed a man carrying a small flag while the group walking with him sang the Israeli national anthem. The man carrying the flag was detained. At least three additional individuals raised Israeli flags on the Mount on Thursday as well.

A number of ministers and MKs visited the Temple Mount on Thursday as well, including Negev and Galilee and National Resilience Minister Yitzhak Wasserlauf (Otzma Yehudit) and Likud MKs Dan Illouz, Ariel Kallner and Amit Halevi.

Since the Jerusalem Day flag march on Thursday, a series of violent incidents have been reported in the Old City of Jerusalem. Before and during the march, scuffles broke out between Jews, Arabs and police officers throughout the Old City.

Journalists covering the flag march were also attacked by right-wing participants of the march near the Damascus Gate on Thursday afternoon, with participants jeering at them and hitting them with various objects. The police stated that they arrested two of the participants who attacked the journalists. One of the suspects, a minor, was also carrying a knife in their bag.

On Friday afternoon, clashes erupted between Palestinians, Jews and Israel Police near the Lions' Gate of the Old City of Jerusalem, shortly before Friday prayers were set to begin at al-Aqsa Mosque. Two Israeli civilians and a police officer were injured amid the violence.

Footage reportedly from the scene showed Jews dancing and singing in the area before fights erupted and police intervened, throwing stun grenades into the crowd. Palestinians were seen throwing stones at the Jewish individuals during the clashes. The windshields of vehicles belonging to Palestinians were smashed as well, according to Palestinian reports. A number of Palestinians were reportedly injured amid the violence.

 

China urges 'Brethren in Central Asia' to unite

Chinese President Xi Jinping has urged the “Brethren in Central Asia” to unite against attempts to divide them in the face of unprecedented turmoil and build themselves as the bridge connecting Asia and Europe.

“The world needs a harmonious Central Asia. Brotherhood is better than all wealth,” Xi said in a keynote speech delivered on the second day of the inaugural China-Central Asia Summit in Xian, attended by the leaders of five countries in the region.

“Ethnic conflicts, religious strife and cultural divisions are not the main theme of Central Asia. Unity, tolerance and harmony are what the people of Central Asia seek,” he said, adding, “No one has the right to create discord and confrontation in Central Asia, let alone seek political self-interest from it”.

“The sovereignty, security, independence and territorial integrity of Central Asian countries must be safeguarded, the development path chosen independently by the Central Asian people must be respected, and the efforts of the Central Asian region to work for peace, harmony and tranquility must be supported,” Xi said.

With its “unique geographical advantage”, Central Asia could “become an important interconnection hub in Asia and Europe”.

Xi pledged to expand trade and economic cooperation with Central Asia and said Beijing would deepen connectivity in the region and expand energy cooperation, among other things, according to state news agency Xinhua.

He said China hoped to speed up construction of the Line D natural gas pipeline and expand the scale of oil and gas trade with the region.

Xi also announced that China would provide US$3.7 billion in financial support for the development of Central Asian nations.

Xi said the summit – the first in-person meeting of its kind since Beijing established diplomatic relations with the five newly independent countries in 1992 – opened up new prospects for cooperation with Central Asia.

“The relations between China and Central Asian countries have profound historical origins, extensive practical needs, and a solid foundation of public opinion, and they are full of vigor and vitality in the new era,” he said.

Xi said China was willing to help Central Asian countries bolster their law enforcement security and defence capabilities to independently maintain regional security, adding that China would promote the peaceful reconstruction of Afghanistan.

Xi also called for joint efforts to boost strategic trust and strengthen security ties between China and Central Asia.

“We will resolutely oppose external forces interfering in the internal affairs of regional countries and staging ‘colour revolutions’, maintain zero tolerance for the three forces, and work to resolve the regional security dilemma,” he said, referring to terrorism, separatism and religious extremism.

The summit, in the northwestern province of Shaanxi, coincided with the Group of Seven meeting in Japan, where leaders from the advanced economies – including the US, Canada, Germany and France – are expected to discuss ways to counter China’s economic coercion.

The leaders agreed on Friday to set up a formal mechanism to hold a China-Central Asia meeting every two years, with Kazakhstan to host the next one in 2025.

Beijing views Central Asia as a critical frontier for expanding trade and energy security. The region is also regarded as crucial to maintaining stability in Xinjiang, where the treatment of Uygur Muslims has been among the most contentious issues between China and the West.

In recent months, efforts to strengthen ties with the region included Xi’s first trip abroad since the early days of the Covid-19 pandemic, with visits to Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan in September.

On Thursday, Xi held a series of one-on-one meetings with the leaders of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. All expressed support for greater Chinese engagement in the region, including under the flagship Belt and Road Initiative.

Yu Jun, deputy director general of the Chinese foreign ministry’s department of European-Central Asian affairs, flagged on Tuesday that the leaders of the six nations were expected to sign a slew of important political documents on areas including economy, trade and connectivity.

Trade between China and the five Central Asian countries has increased significantly since Beijing launched its belt and road plan in 2013. The combined volume reached US$70.2 billion last year, up 40%YoY, according to Chinese customs data.

 

US War on terror has killed more than 4.5 million since 9/11

A report, by the Costs of War project at Brown University in the American state of Rhode Island reveals that around 4.5 million people have been killed due to the US-led military adventurism in Afghanistan, Iraq, Pakistan, Syria, Yemen, Libya, and Somalia.

According to the research, the operations have indirectly killed millions more due to destruction of economies, public services, infrastructure, and the environment, which adds to the death toll long after bombs are dropped and increases over time.

Many long-term and under-appreciated consequences of war that was need to be studied in more detail.

The research indicates that the direct war fatalities or killing of nearly one million people is an undercount “precise mortality figure remains unknown”.

The estimates of war deaths in Iraq have been particularly controversial. A 2006 article in The Lancet estimated that approximately 600,000 Iraqis had died due to war violence between 2003 and 2006.

The controversy over the conflicting reports on the death toll in Iraq stems from news outlets that are opposed to the war, who overplayed the death toll, while those who supported the illegal invasion downplayed the death toll.

There have been various unbiased studies that concluded more than one million Iraqis have been killed as a result of the US invasion and occupation of Iraq from 2003 to 2011.

The Iraqi deaths can be considered an undercount because of almost daily bombings that killed hundreds of Iraqis. Add to the era of the US and Daesh from 2014 to 2017 where hundreds of thousands of others were slaughtered and it’s not difficult to imagine more than one million Iraqis have died and continue to die today as a result of the US war on terror.   

There is little doubt that the US has brought nothing but insecurity and instability to West Asia, with its military presence. In January 2018, the Leader of Iran's Islamic Revolution, Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei said,

"America's corrupting presence in this region should end… In this region, they brought war, discord, sedition, destruction, destruction of infrastructure.  Of course, wherever they stepped in the world, they acted the same way... this must end."

The report put special emphasis on the effects of US wars on women and children who suffer the brunt of these ongoing impacts the most.

The report notes that while people were killed in fighting, far more, especially children, have been killed by the reverberating effects of US wars, such as the spread of disease and damage to public services.

"More studies are necessary on the impact of war’s destruction of public services, especially beyond the healthcare system, on population health," the report says.

"Damage to water and sanitation systems, roads, and commercial infrastructure such as ports, for instance, have significant but less understood consequences."

The research says wars and conflicts which the US has waged or been engaged in under the pretext of countering terrorism since September 11, 2001 makes clear that the impacts of war's ongoing violence are so vast and complex that they are unquantifiable.

It should be noted that after the September 11 attacks, the US waged wars and sparked conflicts, especially in West Asia under the pretext of fighting terrorism. However, as a result of the US military adventurism, there has been an extremely sharp rise in terrorist groups that had no presence in West Asia or countries such as Somalia before Washington’s intervention in the region.

In other words, war on terror has had the complete opposite effect of the slogan under which the Pentagon waged a campaign of instability in West Asia that allowed terrorism to flourish.

Millions of people are still in distress, pain and traumatized in both current and former warzones, the study says, calling on the US as well as its allies to alleviate the ongoing losses and suffering of millions of people and provide the required reparations, though not easy or cheap. This is something imperative, the report points out.

The report focuses on Afghanistan as an example of how people, in particular women and children, the most vulnerable in society, are dying because, despite the US (shambolic) withdrawal, the damage Washington inflicted on Afghanistan’s vital services, such as the health sector and the damage the US caused to the country’s sanitation and other infrastructure in the 20 years of war and occupation means Afghans are still dying today.  

"Though in 2021 the United States withdrew military forces from Afghanistan, officially ending a war that began with its invasion 20 years’ prior, today Afghans are suffering and dying from war-related causes at higher rates than ever," the report alarmingly points out.

In the case of Somalia for example, US intervention and the war that followed has prevented the delivery of humanitarian aid, which the research says exacerbated famine; this is a natural disaster that could have been alleviated if the US instead chose to spend a vast amount of money in humanitarian assistance programs and not radicalizing the local population (and increasing terrorism and bloodshed) by bombing civilians with drones in the sky.  

Critics argue that if the United States had not waged war against countries in West Asia or provoked conflicts in the region, then other parties would not have engaged in any combat missions. In this case, the US must be solely held responsible for the disturbing direct and indirect death toll as a result of its provocative and illegal military measures. 

 

Sudan rivals sign ceasefire pact in Jeddah

Saudi Arabia and the United States announced that representatives of the Sudanese Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces signed an agreement on a short-term ceasefire and humanitarian arrangements in Jeddah on Saturday.

The short-term ceasefire, which enters into force 48 hours after the signing of the agreement, shall remain in effect for seven days and may be extended with the agreement of both parties, Saudi Press Agency (SPA) reported.

Under the agreement, the parties agreed to facilitate the delivery and distribution of humanitarian assistance, restore essential services, and withdraw forces from hospitals and essential public facilities.

The parties also agreed to facilitate the safe passage of humanitarian actors and commodities, allowing goods to flow unimpeded from ports of entry to populations in need.

Both parties have conveyed to the Saudi and United States facilitators their commitment not to seek military advantage during the 48-hour notification period after signing the agreement and prior to the start of the ceasefire. The ceasefire will go into effect at 09:45 p.m., Khartoum time, on May 22.

The agreement reached in Jeddah was signed by the parties and will be supported by a United States-Saudi and international-supported ceasefire monitoring mechanism. This short-term ceasefire is in line with the step-by-step approach agreed by the parties.

Saudi Arabia and the United States demanded the parties to fully abide by their commitments under this agreement for a short-term humanitarian ceasefire to provide them with urgently needed relief.

Peep into South Africa through Bloomberg eye

When Nelson Mandela’s African National Congress came to power almost three decades ago, South Africa was blessed with a surfeit of electricity—a legacy of the apartheid regime’s obsession with self-reliance in the face of crippling sanctions against its White supremacist rule.

The democratic government that replaced it prioritized expanding access, electrifying 2.5 million predominantly Black households in its first four years. The surplus from a fleet of coal-fired plants was even tapped to light up homes in neighboring nations.

Today some 86% of South African households are connected to the grid, compared with 40% for Africa as a whole. But the good news ends there. Those households go without electricity at least 10 hours a day on average. It was apparent years ago that a lack of planning by ANC governments, and their failure to build new plants while maintaining that already in place, had hobbled the continent’s most-industrialized nation.

Now the consequences of the ANC’s inability to resolve its power crisis are growing dire. As the world’s biggest economic powers court Africa with an intensity unseen in decades—the leaders of both the US and China are expected this year—South Africa risks being left in the dark.

Brownouts and blackouts aren’t the only challenges the nation faces. The continent’s biggest freight rail network is crumbling, the country’s ports are among the world’s most inefficient and crime is rampant.

South Africa’s foreign policy is also in disarray. Failing to condemn Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine and hosting naval exercises with Russia angered key trading partners, including the US and European Union. This month, the US ambassador accused the country of allowing arms to be loaded onto a Russian ship at a military base.

For a nation that’s billed itself as Africa’s leader—touting its role as the only African member of the Group of 20—South Africa is arguably starting to lose its position.

This month, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz both visited Africa, but neither included South Africa on the itinerary. And South African officials weren’t invited to this weekend’s G-7 summit—for only the second time in six years. So who will be there? The leaders of its emerging-market peers: Brazil, India, Indonesia and Vietnam. 

Much of South Africa’s decline comes back to the absence of reliable electricity and the broader economic malaise it’s causing. The ANC’s responsibility for the outages, which are not only a hindrance for households but deter investment, can be traced back to around 2001, when the national utility, Eskom, was told not to build new power plants.

The government’s thinking was that new generation would be built by private investors. The problem is they never came.

And while corruption and managerial neglect have also been issues, there’s little evidence the policies that triggered the crisis have changed.  

President Cyril Ramaphosa appointed the country’s first-ever electricity minister, Kgosientsho Ramokgopa two months ago. But Ramaphosa has yet to give him any authority, leaving the minister to conduct a series of tours to power plants and TV studios.

Authority instead resides with the energy and public-enterprises ministers—strong political allies of the president who have accomplished little. 

The cost of procrastination is becoming clear. With power cuts deepening into the South African winter, Rand Merchant Bank recently reversed its prediction of 0.3% economic growth this year, and now sees a 0.8% contraction. Even central bank governor Lesetja Kganyago said this month the country was suffering from largely self-inflicted wounds. 

As the ANC is set to face its toughest-ever electoral test in a year’s time, there have been some positive steps. Private companies are now allowed to build generation plants of any size for their own use, and municipalities are seeking supplies independent of Eskom. 

But these moves will take time, and aren’t the hard decisions needed to resolve the situation.

 

 

 

 

India: Implications of scraping 2000 rupee note

India will withdraw its highest denomination currency note from circulation, the central bank said on Friday. The 2000 rupee note, introduced in 2016, will remain legal tender but citizens have been asked to deposit or exchange these notes by September 30, 2023.

The decision is reminiscent of a shock move in 2016 when the Narenda Modi-led government had withdrawn 86% of the economy's currency in circulation overnight.

This time, however, the move is expected to be less disruptive as a lower value of notes is being withdrawn over a longer period of time, according to analysts and economists.

When 2000-rupee notes were introduced in 2016 they were intended to replenish the Indian economy's currency in circulation quickly after demonetization.

However, the central bank has frequently said that it wants to reduce high value notes in circulation and had stopped printing 2000 rupee notes over the past four years.

"This denomination is not commonly used for transactions," the Reserve Bank of India said in its communication while explaining the decision to withdraw these notes.

While the government and the central bank did not specify the reason for the timing of the move, analysts point out that it comes ahead of state and general elections in the country when cash usage typically spikes.

"Making such a move ahead of the general elections is a wise decision," said Rupa Rege Nitsure, group chief economist at L&T Finance Holdings. "People who have been using these notes as a store of value may face inconvenience," she said.

The value of 2000 rupee notes in circulation is 3.62 trillion Indian rupees (US$44.27 billion). This is about 10.8% of the currency in circulation.

"This withdrawal will not create any big disruption, as the notes of smaller quantity are available in sufficient quantity," said Nitsure. "Also in the past 6-7 years, the scope of digital transactions and e-commerce has expanded significantly."

But small businesses and cash-oriented sectors such as agriculture and construction could see inconvenience in the near term, said Yuvika Singhal, economist at QuantEco Research.

To the extent that people holding these notes chose to make purchases with them rather than deposit them in bank accounts, there could be some spurt in discretionary purchases such as gold, said Singhal.

As the government has asked people to deposit or exchange the notes for smaller denominations by September 30, bank deposits will rise. This comes at a time when deposit growth is lagging bank credit growth.

This will ease the pressure on deposit rate hikes, said Karthik Srinivasan, group head - financial sector ratings at rating agency ICRA Ltd.

"Since all the 2000 rupee notes will come back in the banking system, we will see a reduction in cash in circulation and that will in turn help improve banking system liquidity," said Madhavi Arora, economist at Emkay Global Financial Services.

Improved banking system liquidity and an inflow of deposits into banks could mean that short-term interest rates in the market drop as these funds get invested in shorter-term government securities, said Srinivasan.