Showing posts with label bank deposits. Show all posts
Showing posts with label bank deposits. Show all posts

Saturday, 20 May 2023

India: Implications of scraping 2000 rupee note

India will withdraw its highest denomination currency note from circulation, the central bank said on Friday. The 2000 rupee note, introduced in 2016, will remain legal tender but citizens have been asked to deposit or exchange these notes by September 30, 2023.

The decision is reminiscent of a shock move in 2016 when the Narenda Modi-led government had withdrawn 86% of the economy's currency in circulation overnight.

This time, however, the move is expected to be less disruptive as a lower value of notes is being withdrawn over a longer period of time, according to analysts and economists.

When 2000-rupee notes were introduced in 2016 they were intended to replenish the Indian economy's currency in circulation quickly after demonetization.

However, the central bank has frequently said that it wants to reduce high value notes in circulation and had stopped printing 2000 rupee notes over the past four years.

"This denomination is not commonly used for transactions," the Reserve Bank of India said in its communication while explaining the decision to withdraw these notes.

While the government and the central bank did not specify the reason for the timing of the move, analysts point out that it comes ahead of state and general elections in the country when cash usage typically spikes.

"Making such a move ahead of the general elections is a wise decision," said Rupa Rege Nitsure, group chief economist at L&T Finance Holdings. "People who have been using these notes as a store of value may face inconvenience," she said.

The value of 2000 rupee notes in circulation is 3.62 trillion Indian rupees (US$44.27 billion). This is about 10.8% of the currency in circulation.

"This withdrawal will not create any big disruption, as the notes of smaller quantity are available in sufficient quantity," said Nitsure. "Also in the past 6-7 years, the scope of digital transactions and e-commerce has expanded significantly."

But small businesses and cash-oriented sectors such as agriculture and construction could see inconvenience in the near term, said Yuvika Singhal, economist at QuantEco Research.

To the extent that people holding these notes chose to make purchases with them rather than deposit them in bank accounts, there could be some spurt in discretionary purchases such as gold, said Singhal.

As the government has asked people to deposit or exchange the notes for smaller denominations by September 30, bank deposits will rise. This comes at a time when deposit growth is lagging bank credit growth.

This will ease the pressure on deposit rate hikes, said Karthik Srinivasan, group head - financial sector ratings at rating agency ICRA Ltd.

"Since all the 2000 rupee notes will come back in the banking system, we will see a reduction in cash in circulation and that will in turn help improve banking system liquidity," said Madhavi Arora, economist at Emkay Global Financial Services.

Improved banking system liquidity and an inflow of deposits into banks could mean that short-term interest rates in the market drop as these funds get invested in shorter-term government securities, said Srinivasan.

Friday, 13 January 2023

Pakistan: Bank deposits reported at PKR22.5 trillion at end December 2022

According to State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) data, banking sector deposits increased by slightly more than 7%YoY to RKR22.5 trillion by end December 2022.

Analysts cited multiple plausible explanations for the rise in bank deposits, the biggest being, increase in the rate of return on deposits on the back of persistent hike in the policy rate.

In the face of difficult macroeconomic circumstances, such as bearish stock market activity, keeping surplus funds in the banks remained one of the preferred choices.

Analysts also attribute the increase to robust inflow of remittances on the back of depreciating Pak rupee (PKR).

Roshan Digital Accounts also helped in attracting funds, supporting banking sector’s deposits.

Due to consumers' increasing preference for using digital payment methods, cash was allowed to remain in the bank accounts.

Since the policy rate remains on the higher side, banks remained focused on mobilizing current accounts and extend their branch networks in order to protect net interest margins.

Banking sector succeeded in maintaining asset quality despite uncertain politico-economic landscape, according to analysts, which is despite that banks have indicated in recent briefings that they have provided enough for any unforeseen event.

Banks’ advance-to-deposit ratio increased by 463 basis points (bps) to 53%, while the investment-to-deposit ratio rose by1,233 bps to 79.7% in December 2022..

Banks’ advances were up 17%YoY to PKR11.9 trillion as of December 31, 2022. The advances rose by 7.4%MoM.

The investments by banks jumped 26.7%YoY to PKR18 trillion.