Who is Ali Shamkhani?

Since 2013, Rear Admiral Ali Shamkhani has served as secretary of the Supreme National Security Council (SNSC), Iran’s top policymaking body. Shamkhani’s position has become more important in recent years as Iran’s incumbent president is more limited than his predecessor in matters of foreign policy.

The recent execution of one of Shamkhani’s former deputies, Alireza Akbari, criticism from some power centers in Tehran, and his longevity in this post have raised speculation that he could soon vacate his seat.

Such a change would be an important signpost of how the Iranian establishment is posturing itself against the backdrop of continued revolutionary sentiment among significant segments of the population.

Shamkhani has long been a political chameleon — with stints in reformist, pragmatic, and conservative presidential administrations. He is the only member of the Iranian establishment to have served in the top brass of both Iran’s regular Army (Artesh) and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). Likewise, Shamkhani has been arguably the most senior ethnic Arab to have risen in the Iranian system since 1979.

He is the second-longest serving SNSC secretary since Iran’s previous president, Hassan Rouhani, first ascended to the job in 1989. Rouhani’s tenure spanned over 15 years, whereas Shamkhani is nearing a decade in office. Their terms bookended Ali Larijani, who was only secretary for around two years, and Saeed Jalili, who held the post for approximately six years. Unlike his predecessors, Shamkhani, who commanded both the Artesh and IRGC navies, has considerable military experience. Rouhani had some command responsibilities during the Iran-Iraq War, including as head of Iran’s National Air Defense Command.

Shamkhani, in contrast, has been a career military man. The military roles of Larijani and Jalili were not as senior — Larijani was a parliamentary deputy in the IRGC and Jalili a member of the Basij paramilitary militia — with the former a one-time culture minister and head of Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting (IRIB) and the latter a deputy foreign minister before becoming secretary.

Shamkhani has also managed to survive and thrive across the political spectrum. He was defense minister under the reformist President Mohammad Khatami and SNSC secretary under Rouhani, a pragmatist, continuing in this role under the incumbent, President Ebrahim Raisi, a more conservative figure. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei purged the Iranian system in recent years — extending even to the likes of Larijani, whom the Guardian Council barred from running in the June 2021 presidential election despite being a regime mainstay.

Yet more recently, figures like Shamkhani, who may have more credibility among reformist elements of the Iranian political elite, have been indispensable as Tehran deploys a series of pressure valves to preserve the Islamic Revolution amid protests.

Last year, the government enlisted Shamkhani for such an assignment, asking representatives of the founding families of the Islamic Republic (the Khomeinis and the Rafsanjanis) to speak out publicly to placate the Iranian people. If they did, Shamkhani promised reforms would follow. But both clans reportedly refused those specific conditions. He also recently met with marginalized reformist figures like Ali Shakuri Rad, a former lawmaker.

Shamkhani likewise has been an advocate for change within the system, to divide and conquer those protesting, forming an unusual coalition with Speaker of Parliament Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and Vice President for Economic Affairs Mohsen Rezaei, Amwaj Media has reported.

Such efforts coincide with the increased visibility of reformists and pragmatists in Tehran since the onset of the protests in September. Former President Khatami, once the subject of a media ban, has become more vocal in warning that the Islamic Revolution is in danger and advocated for not overhauling the constitution but merely returning to the spirit and even the text.

The remarks resembled similar calls for reform he made while in office, which failed then because of the Iranian deep state presided over by the supreme leader. After being lambasted in his last days in office by Khamenei, Rouhani has also resurfaced a few weeks ago, telling reporters on the 44th anniversary of the Islamic Revolution, “We should not allow a power-hungry minority to push the majority aside,” and warning that this “would be the end of the revolution.”

However, there has been no evidence that Khamenei is listening to Shamkhani. In fact, it appears he is moving in the opposite direction, doubling down and deflecting. His elevation of Ahmad-Reza Radan — a notorious hardliner — as the new commander of Iran’s national police indicates as much. There is also evidence some in the Iranian system are laying the groundwork to make Shamkhani the fall guy amid the demonstrations.

It would not be unusual for Khamenei to reshuffle the government amid significant challenges to the system. For instance, he shifted Hossein Taeb, then commander of the Basij, to head a newly empowered IRGC Intelligence Organization in 2009, when mass demonstrations took hold after the disputed reelection of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to the presidency.

Likewise, on foreign policy, Shamkhani is the rare official in the Raisi presidency who is a leftover from the Rouhani administration. The dynamics of the SNSC have changed since the Rouhani era, when the then-chief of staff of Iran’s Armed Forces, Hassan Firouzabadi,  defended Rouhani’s nuclear diplomacy with the P5+1 (the five permanent United Nations Security Council members, the United States, Russia, China, France, and the United Kingdom, along with Germany).

Fast forward to 2023, his successor, Mohammad Bagheri, has emerged as a leading critic of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in the SNSC. Shamkhani has evolved as well. In 2014, he argued to international media that Tehran and Washington can behave in a way that they do not use their energy against each other [in the region]. A nuclear agreement can be very crucial in this regard. Everything will depend on the honesty of the Americans in the talks; by 2019, he expressed regret about the JCPOA.

However, Shamkhani has also hedged, counseling against a complete pivot away from the West to align with China and Russia. Indeed, this outlook is increasingly a minority view on the SNSC. This ideological nimbleness may explain why Khamenei has, so far, been resistant to replacing him.

China brokers agreement between Iran and Saudi Arabia

After four days of talks in Beijing, both Tehran and Riyadh agreed to reestablish relations and open up embassies in their respective countries following seven years of hostilities.

The three countries — Iran, Saudi Arabia and China — issued a joint statement on Friday that the two Middle Eastern nations had agreed to resume diplomatic relations between them and re-open their embassies and missions within a period not exceeding two months.

“The three countries expressed their keenness to exert all efforts towards enhancing regional and international peace and security,” they added, according to a copy of the statement tweeted out by the Saudi Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

Saudi Arabia and Iran also expressed their appreciation and gratitude to China for hosting the successful talks, as well as to Iraq and Oman for hosting previous efforts.

Riyadh severed diplomatic ties with Tehran in 2016, after protesters stormed the Saudi Embassy in Iran in response to Saudi Arabia’s execution of a prominent Shiite cleric.

The two Middle Eastern powers have frequently been at odds with one another, backing opposite sides in the region’s conflicts, including the long drawn-out Yemeni and Syrian civil wars.

The announcement was a major diplomatic and political win for China, whose top diplomat, Wang Yi, hailed it as a victory and said Beijing, would continue to address global issues.

Jonathan Fulton, a nonresident senior fellow for Middle East Programs at the Atlantic Council, said the deal may lead to something positive or it may fizzle.

"It’s too early to proclaim it anything other than a good first step," Fulton wrote in an analysis. "It is, however, significant as China’s first major foray into regional diplomacy. Beijing has been signaling since at least last January that it is willing to promote a non-US centered vision of the Middle East, and this is a sign of things to come."

The US role in the Middle East remains under question as some nations in the region see Washington slowly pulling out after the 2021 withdrawal from Afghanistan and downsizing in Syria.

Also, tensions with Iran have soared and relations with Saudi Arabia are frosty after the killing of US-based journalist Jamal Khashoggi in 2018.

The White House dismissed those concerns as National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby told reporters the US is not stepping back from its role in the region.

Meanwhile, US President Biden welcomed the easing of tensions in the Middle East.

Alex Vatanka, the director of the Iran Program at the Middle East Institute, pumped the brakes on China's victory lap, telling The Hill the agreement might not be a major loss for Washington in the long term.

“It symbolically makes the United States look like it’s not able to be a key player,” he said. “But it’s not going to be a Chinese-dominated Middle East.” 

 

Saudi Arabia strives to develop relations with Russia

Saudi Arabian Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan said that the Kingdom strived to strengthen and develop relations with Russia at all levels.

The foreign minister made the remarks during a session of talks with his Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov in Moscow on Thursday. “I look forward to today’s discussions contributing to unifying visions and supporting bilateral relations. There is always something new in the relations between our two friendly countries, which we seek to strengthen and develop at all levels,” he said.

The visit of the Saudi foreign minister to Moscow comes after his visit to Ukraine on Sunday for the first time since the establishment of diplomatic relations between the two countries 30 years ago. The minister said that he discussed with Lavrov the challenges affecting the world, and they also exchanged views on international crises.

Prince Faisal praised the existing coordination in various fields between the two countries with regard to developing joint relations and coordination to face international challenges.

On his part, Lavrov welcomed Saudi Arabia’s increased interest in actively participating not only in the resolution of regional issues but also issues at the international level. The Russian minister said he sees the importance of permanent and mutual coordination between the two countries at the level of ministries and government agencies and in the areas of trade, economy, and investments between Riyadh and Moscow.

"We always agree on the necessary steps to develop cooperation between Russia and Saudi Arabia," Lavrov added.

Iranian presence in neighboring countries in oil and gas exploration

Director of Exploration of National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC) stated that currently Iran has oil and gas exploration relations with four neighboring countries. Transferring exploration technologies to neighboring countries is creating value and generating income for Iran.

Making the remarks in a press conference, Mehdi Fakour said that exploration has a special status in the oil industry, stressing that exploration maps the country's energy future.

The transfer of exploration technologies to neighboring countries can create value and generate income, the official further reiterated.

Pointing out that there is no local exploration management in the countries around Iran, the director of the exploration of the National Iranian Oil Company said this is a prominent position for the Iranian Ministry of Oil to present itself to the neighboring countries and Eurasian countries, and they are also willing to cooperate with Iran.

Emphasizing that this important issue has not been possible in the past years, Fakour clarified, “We now have exploratory relations with four neighboring countries.”

He pointed to the holding of meetings with Oman and said, “We had meetings with the minister of Oman and they accepted all the proposals for exploration cooperation to form a joint team and advance the agreements.”

The official also named Tajikistan, Russia, and Iraq as the three other neighboring countries cooperating with Iran in the field of exploration.

 

Israel: Protestors target Netanyahu and visiting Pentagon chief at airport

Israelis protesting judicial reforms sought by the hard-right government converged on the country's main airport on Thursday in a bid to disrupt a trip abroad by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu as well as a visit by the US defense secretary.

Defying a heavy police deployment, convoys of cars flying blue-and-white national flags packed the Tel Aviv-Jerusalem highway and streamed toward Ben Gurion Airport's main terminal.

Some local media said Netanyahu and his retinue sidestepped the traffic jams by coming to the airport in the early morning. Others speculated that he might reach Ben Gurion - usually a 30-minute drive from Jerusalem - by military helicopter instead.

Netanyahu's spokespeople did not disclose the whereabouts of the prime minister, who was due to leave for a two-day visit to Rome in the afternoon after a hastily organized welcome for Pentagon chief Lloyd Austin, who landed at the airport at noon.

Images on social media showed Netanyahu aides shopping in Duty Free. Outside, some travellers abandoned blocked vehicles and walked along the highway shoulder to Ben Gurion, luggage in tow.

Protest organizers called for escalated disruptions throughout the country in what they dubbed "A Day of Resistance" against reforms that they fear would subordinate Israel's Supreme Court to the executive and foster corruption.

Netanyahu - who is on trial on graft charges he denies - argues that curbing the judiciary would restore the balance between the branches of government.

"Nobody said don't protest," minister for police Itamar Ben-Gvir told reporters at the airport, where he was coordinating the response to the demonstrations. "But it's not okay, it's not right, it's not proper to ruin the lives of 70,000 people."

He appeared to be referring to people stuck in traffic as well as those travelling through Ben Gurion, whose spokesperson said the expected passenger volume for Thursday was 65,000.

In a message circulated over WhatsApp, protest organizers had urged air travellers to check in ahead of time, "We are trying to balance our desire to shake up the country with the necessity of enabling people to reach their destinations."

Austin, who is on a regional tour, had been due to arrive on Wednesday. But he postponed, and relocated meetings to a venue near Ben Gurion, given concerns that the demonstrations could make it difficult to reach the Defence Ministry in Tel Aviv.

Though it has yet to be written into law, the judicial overhaul plan has hit the shekel and stirred concern abroad for Israel's democratic health. Polls have found that most Israelis want it shelved or amended to satisfy a national consensus.

Two law professors, Yuval Elbashan and Daniel Friedman, this week circulated a compromise proposal. Netanyahu's cabinet secretary and two ministers gave the draft a preliminary welcome. But leaders of the opposition said they would not countenance it unless Netanyahu suspends ratification votes.

In Jerusalem, a group of protesters used sandbags and barbed wired to barricade the offices of the Kohelet Policy Forum, a think-tank that has advocated the government reforms.

 

 

Iraq: US Senate may finally end authorization for war

A US Senate committee backed legislation on Wednesday to repeal two authorizations for past wars in Iraq, paving the way for a possible vote in the full Senate before the 20th anniversary of the last invasion by American troops.

Under the Constitution, Congress, not the president, has the right to declare war.

The Senate Foreign Relations Committee voted 13-8 to approve a bill to repeal the 1991 and 2002 Authorizations for the Use of Military Force (AUMFs), against Iraq, the latest attempt to reassert Congress' role in deciding to send troops into combat.

Senate Democratic Majority Leader Chuck Schumer has said the full Senate could vote on the legislation in the next few weeks. That would coincide with the 20th anniversary of the March 19, 2003, invasion of Iraq.

Senator Tim Kaine, a leader of efforts to repeal old AUMFs, said it makes no sense to have the authorizations on the books.

"Iraq was an enemy in '02," he told Reuters in a telephone interview. "Increasingly, they are a security partner. We work with Iraq to defeat ISIS and continue to guard against terrorist activity."

Lawmakers have been arguing for years that Congress has ceded too much authority to the president over whether troops should be sent into combat, by passing and then failing to repeal broad, open-ended war authorizations that presidents have then used for years to justify military action around the globe.

Republican then-President Donald Trump said the 2002 AUMF provided legal authority for the 2020 killing in Iraq of senior Iranian military commander Qassem Soleimani.

The measure's chances of becoming law were unclear. Despite support from members of both parties in both the Senate and House of Representatives, there is also significant opposition.

Republican Representative Michael McCaul, chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, called for a replacement, written in consultation with military commanders, before repealing existing AUMFs.

"Piecemeal repeal of those Iraq authorities is not a serious contribution to war powers reform," McCaul said in a statement.

Will Yemen turn into Syria?

The United States appears to be pursuing a new policy in Yemen by occupying the country’s natural resources. This is evident from the visit of the commander of the US Fifth Fleet and Naval Forces in the US Central Command to the Yemeni governorates of Al-Mahra and Hadhramaut on March 02, 2023.

Yemen has a sufficient amount of oil and natural gas resources for both domestic demand and exports. The US and its Western allies are in dire need of getting their hands on amid shortages in the wake of the Ukraine war.

In his latest speech, the leader of Yemen’s ruling Ansarallah movement, Abdul-Malik al-Houthi, revealed that Washington had established military bases in the provinces of Hadhramaut and al-Mahra in eastern Yemen.

He added that the commander of the US Fifth Fleet, accompanied by an American diplomat, landed at the headquarters of the US-Saudi military coalition base in al-Mahra.

Vice Admiral Brad Cooper and the US ambassador to the Saudi-led government in southern Aden travelled to the city of al-Ghaydah in Mahra governorate, in a flagrant violation of Yemen’s sovereignty.

According to reports the US officials were accompanied by a delegation of top US military officials at al-Ghaydah airport, which has been turned into a military base for American, British and Israeli forces on the Arabian Sea.

They also held talks with the pro-US-Saudi coalition and self-proclaimed governor Mohammed bin Yasser to discuss maritime issues.

It may be recalled that since 2018, the airport has been closed to the people of Mahra and has been occupied by Commander of the Coast Guard with the US-Saudi coalition that has been indiscriminately bombing Yemen since March 2015.

The US military visit came after a meeting held by bin Yasser with the US official in the Saudi capital Riyadh last January, in a bid to carry out new missions for the US forces occupying al-Ghaydah airport, under the pretext of combating smuggling and confronting the potential dangers of terrorism.

The eastern oil-rich Yemeni provinces of Mahra, Hadramout, Shabwa and Marib have recently become the focus of the ambitions of the occupying countries of the US, UK and France, with the aim of controlling the sources of oil and gas.

US and European countries intensified their movements in the eastern provinces of Yemen after the escalation of the conflict in Ukraine last year, and have shown great interest in these regions.

The latest developments come as the West faces oil and gas shortages in the wake of its sanctions on the Russian energy sector following the outbreak of the Ukraine war.

Saudi media have confirmed from sources in the US Department of Defense that Washington has retained two CIA military bases in areas under the control of pro-US-Saudi coalition government, including in the city of Mukalla in Hadhramaut governorate.

While the West is claiming that its presence in the region is aimed to deepen bilateral and multilateral maritime cooperation, the evidence on the ground proves quite the opposite.

Yemen considers the presence of foreign forces on its territory as an occupation, and this leads to the question of the reason behind this exceptional concentration of foreign military bases in the country.

Yemen is facing a scenario similar to what is happening in northeastern Syria, where US has been plundering the country’s oil to the tune of billions of dollars.

Al-Houthi says the US has been working actively to end the talks between Saudi Arabia and Yemen in Oman intended to end the war.

"The US seeks to obstruct the Omani efforts, which is to distance the coalition from any agreement or understanding, and this is totally unacceptable," he said.

Experts say this makes sense as reaching a comprehensive political settlement means an end to the war. And ending the war would require the exit of all foreign forces led by the American and British militaries from the eastern and southern Yemeni coasts.

For this reason and other reasons as well, the US and the UK are working to impede the talks and obstruct reaching any political settlement.

Likewise, Yemen’s geographical location is one of the most important in the West Asian region. It has a large front on the Red Sea and has a large gateway to the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea that extends to other regions. The Gulf is what America needs to build military bases and serve its other sinister goals.

The nature of the relations between the western-occupied regions in Yemen, and between Saudi Arabia and the UAE is important as well. The main point here is that the puppet authority in Yemen does not care about the issue of sovereignty.

If the authority put in place by the US and its regional allies had an independent voice, then there would be no occupation, military and naval bases, blockade or plans to seize the country’s natural resources. 

The existing government is contributing to the violation of Yemen’s territorial integrity and sovereignty.

Analysts have said that the foreign military bases, which have been listed by the leaders of Ansarallah as areas of occupation, will possibly be targeted to create realistic equations.

Others agree that after showing impressive steadfastness in the face of eight years of war, it would be natural for the Yemeni forces to have the ability to target foreign military bases as has been reflected over the years.

With the US putting the brakes on talks in Oman, Sana’a says its military capabilities are growing, and all branches of the armed forces are prepared for the next stage that could open the door to the option of a broad military operation.

All of US President Joe Biden’s boasting about ending support for Saudi military operations in Yemen, and the movement in the US Congress that pushed for an end to military aid to Riyadh has now turned out to be inaccurate, and if anything it was just an effort to deflect the growing global condemnation.

What is happening now in al-Mahra and Hadramout is clear evidence of the ongoing interest of the US in not only its military presence but also the expansion of it, one year after the Ukraine war.  

Analysts have pointed out that Saudi Arabia has practically taken full control of al-Mahra in cooperation with the US and local militias, and there are many reports citing Israeli naval cooperation as well, in addition to the US cooperation with the two parties.

But judging by the past few years, Yemeni forces have proved capable of confronting threats and turning their chants and slogans into extraordinary retaliatory operations.

“The level of our military capabilities has evolved compared to the beginning of the aggression” al-Houthi warned.

"If we look at the situation today as compared to the beginning of the aggression, and to previous years, there is a major difference in the level of Yemeni military capabilities," the leader of the Ansarallah movement explained.