The Ukraine war has entered its second year and the past 12
months have shown there are a variety of aspects of this conflict. In this
write up an effort has been done find the movers-shakers and losers-benefiters.
My conclusion - Ukrainians the biggest losers.
In 2014, following the revolution in Ukraine, armed clashes
broke out between ethnic Russians (opposed to the new government in Kyiv) and
the Ukrainian military in the country’s eastern Donetsk and Luhansk regions
which make up the Donbas.
Despite European attempts to ease the fighting, including
the Minsk agreements which granted self-government to the Donbas, the fighting
continued, leaving around 15,000 people dead. Officials in Donetsk and Luhansk
claim that Kyiv aimed to wipe them out. This caused deep concern in Russia.
Meanwhile over the past decade, despite repeated warnings by
Moscow, NATO has been expanding eastwards towards the Russian border.
The US-led military alliance triggered alarm in Moscow which
warned NATO to avoid dangerous steps that pose a threat to Russia’s territorial
integrity and sovereignty.
Amid the massive NATO buildup of forces coupled with
advanced and sophisticated weapons that can strike the heart of Russia, the
Kremlin sought security guarantees from the US and NATO. These were effectively
ignored by both the US and NATO.
On February 24, 2022, Russia launched attack on Ukraine,
calling it a “special military operation”. It cited several reasons for
the attack, including the stance of the government in Kyiv, attacks on ethnic
Russians in the Donbas region, and NATO expansion to the borders of Ukraine.
Ukraine and its Western backers argue that the conflict
waged by Russia was unprovoked.
Current
state of affairs
As things stand, the fighting in flashpoint regions of
eastern and southern Ukraine shows no signs of ending.
Moscow has annexed four regions in Ukraine where mostly
ethnic Russians reside, following a referendum by the people in Luhansk,
Donetsk, Zaporizhia and Kherson.
Ukraine and its Western backers have dismissed the votes as a sham.
The war has seen suffering on both sides, but mostly in
Ukraine which has witnessed a high death toll and millions displaced, although
a significant proportion of those have returned home.
Sanctions
The US and its Western allies have imposed unprecedented
sanctions on Russia. From the freezing of US$330 billion of Russian assets to
the silencing of all Russian media outlets, the Western sanctions regime
continues to this day and has targeted almost all sectors of Russian society,
even to the extent of banning Russian athletes from international sports
tournaments. The sanctions have failed to end the war.
On the other hand, they have backfired mostly on the people
of Europe. According to IMF forecasts in 2023, the UK economy will be
worse off than sanction-hit Russia.
Inflation
If anything, Western sanctions on Russian energy and wheat
have backfired on Europe and beyond.
Europe has faced an energy crisis this winter. It was
dependent on cheap Russian gas for 40% of the continent’s consumption.
Europe is now filling the gap by purchasing US liquefied
natural gas (LNG) at astronomical prices.
This has spearheaded record inflation levels in European
households, which has in turn seen waves of protests and strikes in many
European countries paralyzing the public sectors. But it’s a major income boost
for US energy firms.
United States Role
1. The United States is widely believed to have instigated
the war in its efforts to contain Russia.
2. Washington has by far been the largest supplier of
weapons to Ukraine.
3. The Pentagon has been shipping weapons to the tune of
tens of billions of dollars. The White House has repeatedly announced fresh
military packages for Kyiv.
4. Yet that doesn’t mean NATO members have not chipped in.
The US and other Western arms manufacturers have made very
lucrative profits from the war that is the reason many experts argue, allies
want the conflict to continue as long as possible.
By the same token, Russia and other countries say pouring
weapons into the warzone has not and will not end the conflict. Moscow says the
arms deliveries will only increase the suffering of Ukrainians and prolong the
war.
Kyiv argues it needs more advanced weapons, such as battle
tanks, to repel Russian forces in the country’s east. There are major question
marks as to whether these weapons will change anything on the battlefield.
Some European Parliament lawmakers have said the war serves
the interests of the US and not the interests of Europeans.
Europe
fails in ending violence
After the fall of Afghanistan to the Taliban in August 2021
and the embarrassing scenes of US-led forces fleeing the country, repetitious
statements were made by the European Union about the need to distance itself
from the military affairs of the US in different parts of the world.
EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell said Europe needs to
develop its own military capacity independent of the United States.
The 27-member bloc revived debates about Europe developing
the means to act independently from the US
The EU reiterated it needed to develop diplomatic and
military muscle and what France's President Emmanuel Macron termed as strategic
autonomy.
Some countries are going to have to ask themselves questions
about an American ally which, as Joe Biden said, doesn't want to fight other
people's wars for them.
"The Europeans don't have a choice. We must organize
ourselves to deal with the world as it is and not the world that we dream
of," Borrel said.
"We have to analyze how the EU can further deploy
capabilities and positively influence international relations to defend its
interests. Our EU strategic autonomy remains at the top of our agenda."
As Europe tried to be sovereign instead of taking directions
from Washington, it failed to do so, as witnessed five months later with the
eruption of war in Ukraine.
The Europeans understood perfectly that they are still
defenseless, both militarily and diplomatically.
They don’t have the means to significantly contribute in
ending a conflict on their doorsteps.
All the European ducks have lined up and have taken their
marching orders from Washington again, with a very few exceptions.
The Europeans are unable to take themselves out of this
fatal subservience to the Americans.
Accusations
against Iran and China
The US and NATO have accused Tehran and Beijing of providing
arms to Russia to use in the Ukraine war. Both countries have dismissed the
allegations as ludicrous, saying they have been working with both parties to
find a political solution to the conflict.
Russia has also rejected reports that it has received
weapons from any third party.
International
community
While the West claims the international community stands in
solidarity against Russia, the facts on the ground suggest otherwise.
However, a considerable number of countries have taken a
neutral stance toward the war.
NATO does not represent the international community, despite
statements by its Secretary-General, Jens Stoltenberg.
The international community is calling for a peaceful resolution,
something the US has stood firmly against.
Countries
benefiting from war
The biggest beneficiary of this war has been the United
States.
It has been successful in triggering a conflict in Europe to
try and contain Russia’s growing power.
It has disrupted gas supply to the continent by sabotaging
Nord Stream pipelines delivering Russia’s cheap gas to European consumers.
Many experts also say the US has pitted and provoked Russia
and Ukraine against each other, in a similar fashion to other conflicts
instigated by the Pentagon.
