United States the biggest beneficiary of Russia-Ukraine war

The Ukraine war has entered its second year and the past 12 months have shown there are a variety of aspects of this conflict. In this write up an effort has been done find the movers-shakers and losers-benefiters. My conclusion - Ukrainians the biggest losers.   

In 2014, following the revolution in Ukraine, armed clashes broke out between ethnic Russians (opposed to the new government in Kyiv) and the Ukrainian military in the country’s eastern Donetsk and Luhansk regions which make up the Donbas.

Despite European attempts to ease the fighting, including the Minsk agreements which granted self-government to the Donbas, the fighting continued, leaving around 15,000 people dead. Officials in Donetsk and Luhansk claim that Kyiv aimed to wipe them out. This caused deep concern in Russia.

Meanwhile over the past decade, despite repeated warnings by Moscow, NATO has been expanding eastwards towards the Russian border.  

The US-led military alliance triggered alarm in Moscow which warned NATO to avoid dangerous steps that pose a threat to Russia’s territorial integrity and sovereignty.

Amid the massive NATO buildup of forces coupled with advanced and sophisticated weapons that can strike the heart of Russia, the Kremlin sought security guarantees from the US and NATO. These were effectively ignored by both the US and NATO.

On February 24, 2022, Russia launched attack on Ukraine, calling it a “special military operation”.  It cited several reasons for the attack, including the stance of the government in Kyiv, attacks on ethnic Russians in the Donbas region, and NATO expansion to the borders of Ukraine.

Ukraine and its Western backers argue that the conflict waged by Russia was unprovoked.

Current state of affairs

As things stand, the fighting in flashpoint regions of eastern and southern Ukraine shows no signs of ending.

Moscow has annexed four regions in Ukraine where mostly ethnic Russians reside, following a referendum by the people in Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhia and Kherson.
Ukraine and its Western backers have dismissed the votes as a sham.

The war has seen suffering on both sides, but mostly in Ukraine which has witnessed a high death toll and millions displaced, although a significant proportion of those have returned home.

Sanctions

The US and its Western allies have imposed unprecedented sanctions on Russia. From the freezing of US$330 billion of Russian assets to the silencing of all Russian media outlets, the Western sanctions regime continues to this day and has targeted almost all sectors of Russian society, even to the extent of banning Russian athletes from international sports tournaments. The sanctions have failed to end the war.

On the other hand, they have backfired mostly on the people of Europe. According to IMF forecasts in 2023, the UK economy will be worse off than sanction-hit Russia.  

Inflation

If anything, Western sanctions on Russian energy and wheat have backfired on Europe and beyond.

Europe has faced an energy crisis this winter. It was dependent on cheap Russian gas for 40% of the continent’s consumption.

Europe is now filling the gap by purchasing US liquefied natural gas (LNG) at astronomical prices.

This has spearheaded record inflation levels in European households, which has in turn seen waves of protests and strikes in many European countries paralyzing the public sectors. But it’s a major income boost for US energy firms.

United States Role

1. The United States is widely believed to have instigated the war in its efforts to contain Russia.

2. Washington has by far been the largest supplier of weapons to Ukraine.

3. The Pentagon has been shipping weapons to the tune of tens of billions of dollars. The White House has repeatedly announced fresh military packages for Kyiv.

4. Yet that doesn’t mean NATO members have not chipped in.

The US and other Western arms manufacturers have made very lucrative profits from the war that is the reason many experts argue, allies want the conflict to continue as long as possible.

By the same token, Russia and other countries say pouring weapons into the warzone has not and will not end the conflict. Moscow says the arms deliveries will only increase the suffering of Ukrainians and prolong the war.

Kyiv argues it needs more advanced weapons, such as battle tanks, to repel Russian forces in the country’s east. There are major question marks as to whether these weapons will change anything on the battlefield.

Some European Parliament lawmakers have said the war serves the interests of the US and not the interests of Europeans.

Europe fails in ending violence

After the fall of Afghanistan to the Taliban in August 2021 and the embarrassing scenes of US-led forces fleeing the country, repetitious statements were made by the European Union about the need to distance itself from the military affairs of the US in different parts of the world.

EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell said Europe needs to develop its own military capacity independent of the United States.

The 27-member bloc revived debates about Europe developing the means to act independently from the US

The EU reiterated it needed to develop diplomatic and military muscle and what France's President Emmanuel Macron termed as strategic autonomy.

Some countries are going to have to ask themselves questions about an American ally which, as Joe Biden said, doesn't want to fight other people's wars for them.

"The Europeans don't have a choice. We must organize ourselves to deal with the world as it is and not the world that we dream of," Borrel said.

"We have to analyze how the EU can further deploy capabilities and positively influence international relations to defend its interests. Our EU strategic autonomy remains at the top of our agenda."

As Europe tried to be sovereign instead of taking directions from Washington, it failed to do so, as witnessed five months later with the eruption of war in Ukraine.

The Europeans understood perfectly that they are still defenseless, both militarily and diplomatically.

They don’t have the means to significantly contribute in ending a conflict on their doorsteps.  

All the European ducks have lined up and have taken their marching orders from Washington again, with a very few exceptions.

The Europeans are unable to take themselves out of this fatal subservience to the Americans.

Accusations against Iran and China

The US and NATO have accused Tehran and Beijing of providing arms to Russia to use in the Ukraine war. Both countries have dismissed the allegations as ludicrous, saying they have been working with both parties to find a political solution to the conflict.

Russia has also rejected reports that it has received weapons from any third party.

International community

While the West claims the international community stands in solidarity against Russia, the facts on the ground suggest otherwise.

However, a considerable number of countries have taken a neutral stance toward the war.

NATO does not represent the international community, despite statements by its Secretary-General, Jens Stoltenberg. 

The international community is calling for a peaceful resolution, something the US has stood firmly against.

Countries benefiting from war

The biggest beneficiary of this war has been the United States.

It has been successful in triggering a conflict in Europe to try and contain Russia’s growing power.

It has disrupted gas supply to the continent by sabotaging Nord Stream pipelines delivering Russia’s cheap gas to European consumers.

Many experts also say the US has pitted and provoked Russia and Ukraine against each other, in a similar fashion to other conflicts instigated by the Pentagon. 

 

Economic costs of Ukraine war

The Ukraine war is one of the most important challenges in the world of politics, especially between Russia and the West. The war began in February 2014 with a speech by Russian President and continues until now.

Putin told the Russian people that he was conducting a “special military operation” to “denazify” Ukraine and prevent NATO from expanding to Russia’s borders.

Many in the West see the war, which they consider the most disruptive conflict in Europe since 1945, as a war of choice by Putin, but he says that NATO’s 2008 decision in favor of eventual Ukrainian membership brought an existential threat to Russia’s borders.

This article aims at exploring the reasons for the war, its process, and the costs.

Russia declared one of the reasons for starting the war to help the Russians living in the two republics of Donetsk and Luhansk, two separatist regions of eastern Ukraine in Donbas. Russia repeatedly stated that the two regions have a Russian majority and should either become autonomous or join Russia. The Kremlin declared racism against the Russians the reason for the war.

After the annexation of Crimea, Russians established self-rule governments in these two provinces. They were only able to take over parts of the two provinces of Donetsk and Luhansk, a struggle started to conquer the two provinces.

Ukrainian government forces also engaged in a military conflict against the separatists. As a result, more than 14,000 people were killed and a many were displaced.

In 2015, with the mediation of France and Germany, an agreement was signed between Russia and Ukraine, which became known as the Minsk Agreement. The main goal of the deal was to end the conflict between the Ukrainian army and Russian-backed separatists in Donbass. According to the agreement, in exchange for regaining control of its borders with Russia, Ukraine gave these two regions autonomy in many areas, which was supported by the United States and its allies.

The agreement was annulled by the war, and once again Donbass became the core of the crisis between Russia and Ukraine and Putin said in his speech before the start of the war, the people's republics of Donbass have asked Russia for help.

As stated, one of the most important reasons for the start of Russia's war against Ukraine was Kyiv's decision to join NATO; in another word, to expand the military coalition to Russia's borders and threaten the country.

In his speech, Putin said, “I will begin with what I said in my address on February 21, 2022. I spoke about our biggest concerns and worries, and about the fundamental threats that irresponsible Western politicians created for Russia consistently, rudely, and unceremoniously from year to year. I am referring to the eastward expansion of NATO, which is moving its military infrastructure ever closer to the Russian border. It is a fact that over the past 30 years, we have been patiently trying to come to an agreement with the leading NATO countries regarding the principles of equal and indivisible security in Europe. In response to our proposals, we invariably faced either cynical deception and lies or attempts at pressure and blackmail, while the North Atlantic alliance continued to expand despite our protests and concerns. Its military machine is moving and, as I said, is approaching our very border.

Some sources say that another reason for the start of the war was Kyiv's threat to resume its nuclear program, and to prove it, they point finger at the statements of Dmitry Medvedev, the former president and prime minister of Russia and the current deputy of the Security Council of this country.

Ukraine’s threats to resume its nuclear program were largely the reason for Moscow’s special military operation, Medvedev said on Nov, 07, 2022.

One of the reasons for conducting the special military operation was the threats by Ukrainian leaders that hinted resumption of the nuclear program, which Kyiv relinquished under the Budapest Memorandum of 1994, Medvedev wrote in a message on the country’s VK social network, according to TASS.

“What do we see in contrast next to our own borders? Poor puppets from an inferior state, now weeping bitterly about the decision taken under the Budapest Memorandum of 1994 to withdraw the nuclear arsenal located on their territory and inherited from the USSR,” Medvedev said, following statements describing South Africa’s accession process to the Nonproliferation Treaty.

Later, Medvedev said that Ukrainians always perceived Kyiv’s accession to the international treaty as a forced step decided under harsh pressure from Washington, adding that this was the case even though Ukraine did not have the means to support the might (nuclear weapons) that had fallen to it by chance.

He further said Ukrainian leaders, from former President Leonid Kravchuk to current President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, have expressed that they would be happy to use it (nuclear weapons) against us (Russia) and their own citizens (Ukrainians).
Whatever the reason for this war, it cost a lot for the parties, especially the European Union, which was highly dependent on Russian energy.

This cost can be examined in two dimensions:

The war in Ukraine, which is called the most destructive in Europe after World War II, has cost a lot to the parties involved.

Ukraine imports most of the weapons it needs. Although the country does not pay for the purchase of these weapons, its supporters - Europe, the US, and NATO - who are forced and committed to supplying Ukraine with weapons, bear the most costs.

Although the exact costs of these countries cannot be assessed, the cases announced by them show that Europe and the United States have incurred a lot of costs, some of which are as follows:

Short-Term Military Support (US$17 billion): This includes the transfer of weapons, both US weapons and those purchased from allies, training of Ukrainian military personnel, and intelligence sharing.

Long-Term Military Support (US$10.4 billion): This consists of money that Ukraine can use to buy new weapons, mostly from the United States but also elsewhere.

US Military Operations (US$9.6 billion): In the spring, the United States sent about 18,000 troops to Europe to strengthen defenses and deter Russia. These deployments cost money above what was planned in the DOD budget.

DOD General Support (US$1.2 billion): This covers a wide variety of activities, some only tangentially related to Ukraine, to prepare DOD for future conflicts.

Indirect costs can also be referred to human costs, war refugees and the EU energy debate.

Europe, as a place on the front line of Ukrainian immigrants, suffered from two aspects. First, Ukrainian refugees directly entered Europe. Second, there was the issue of gas and energy crisis.

Nearly 8 million refugees fleeing Ukraine have been recorded across Europe, while an estimated 8 million have been displaced within the country by late May 2022. Approximately one-quarter of the country's total population had left their homes in Ukraine by March 20, 2022.

Another impact of the Ukraine war was on the European benchmark natural gas prices.

The countries of the European Union, as importers of Russian gas, were deprived of energy due to their positions, and the energy challenge has turned into a super crisis for several months.

The benchmark price spiked to 227 euros after Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24, 2022, and to around 350 euros in late August. As of January 03, 2023, the benchmark price is about 74 euros.

Of course, the same cases are also true for Russia; the country has also suffered a lot of financial losses in addition to the loss of lives.

The sanctions of the European Union and the United States against this country, especially in the field of energy, are one of these losses.