Showing posts with label US military complexes. Show all posts
Showing posts with label US military complexes. Show all posts

Tuesday 17 January 2023

Economic costs of Ukraine war

The Ukraine war is one of the most important challenges in the world of politics, especially between Russia and the West. The war began in February 2014 with a speech by Russian President and continues until now.

Putin told the Russian people that he was conducting a “special military operation” to “denazify” Ukraine and prevent NATO from expanding to Russia’s borders.

Many in the West see the war, which they consider the most disruptive conflict in Europe since 1945, as a war of choice by Putin, but he says that NATO’s 2008 decision in favor of eventual Ukrainian membership brought an existential threat to Russia’s borders.

This article aims at exploring the reasons for the war, its process, and the costs.

Russia declared one of the reasons for starting the war to help the Russians living in the two republics of Donetsk and Luhansk, two separatist regions of eastern Ukraine in Donbas. Russia repeatedly stated that the two regions have a Russian majority and should either become autonomous or join Russia. The Kremlin declared racism against the Russians the reason for the war.

After the annexation of Crimea, Russians established self-rule governments in these two provinces. They were only able to take over parts of the two provinces of Donetsk and Luhansk, a struggle started to conquer the two provinces.

Ukrainian government forces also engaged in a military conflict against the separatists. As a result, more than 14,000 people were killed and a many were displaced.

In 2015, with the mediation of France and Germany, an agreement was signed between Russia and Ukraine, which became known as the Minsk Agreement. The main goal of the deal was to end the conflict between the Ukrainian army and Russian-backed separatists in Donbass. According to the agreement, in exchange for regaining control of its borders with Russia, Ukraine gave these two regions autonomy in many areas, which was supported by the United States and its allies.

The agreement was annulled by the war, and once again Donbass became the core of the crisis between Russia and Ukraine and Putin said in his speech before the start of the war, the people's republics of Donbass have asked Russia for help.

As stated, one of the most important reasons for the start of Russia's war against Ukraine was Kyiv's decision to join NATO; in another word, to expand the military coalition to Russia's borders and threaten the country.

In his speech, Putin said, “I will begin with what I said in my address on February 21, 2022. I spoke about our biggest concerns and worries, and about the fundamental threats that irresponsible Western politicians created for Russia consistently, rudely, and unceremoniously from year to year. I am referring to the eastward expansion of NATO, which is moving its military infrastructure ever closer to the Russian border. It is a fact that over the past 30 years, we have been patiently trying to come to an agreement with the leading NATO countries regarding the principles of equal and indivisible security in Europe. In response to our proposals, we invariably faced either cynical deception and lies or attempts at pressure and blackmail, while the North Atlantic alliance continued to expand despite our protests and concerns. Its military machine is moving and, as I said, is approaching our very border.

Some sources say that another reason for the start of the war was Kyiv's threat to resume its nuclear program, and to prove it, they point finger at the statements of Dmitry Medvedev, the former president and prime minister of Russia and the current deputy of the Security Council of this country.

Ukraine’s threats to resume its nuclear program were largely the reason for Moscow’s special military operation, Medvedev said on Nov, 07, 2022.

One of the reasons for conducting the special military operation was the threats by Ukrainian leaders that hinted resumption of the nuclear program, which Kyiv relinquished under the Budapest Memorandum of 1994, Medvedev wrote in a message on the country’s VK social network, according to TASS.

“What do we see in contrast next to our own borders? Poor puppets from an inferior state, now weeping bitterly about the decision taken under the Budapest Memorandum of 1994 to withdraw the nuclear arsenal located on their territory and inherited from the USSR,” Medvedev said, following statements describing South Africa’s accession process to the Nonproliferation Treaty.

Later, Medvedev said that Ukrainians always perceived Kyiv’s accession to the international treaty as a forced step decided under harsh pressure from Washington, adding that this was the case even though Ukraine did not have the means to support the might (nuclear weapons) that had fallen to it by chance.

He further said Ukrainian leaders, from former President Leonid Kravchuk to current President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, have expressed that they would be happy to use it (nuclear weapons) against us (Russia) and their own citizens (Ukrainians).
Whatever the reason for this war, it cost a lot for the parties, especially the European Union, which was highly dependent on Russian energy.

This cost can be examined in two dimensions:

The war in Ukraine, which is called the most destructive in Europe after World War II, has cost a lot to the parties involved.

Ukraine imports most of the weapons it needs. Although the country does not pay for the purchase of these weapons, its supporters - Europe, the US, and NATO - who are forced and committed to supplying Ukraine with weapons, bear the most costs.

Although the exact costs of these countries cannot be assessed, the cases announced by them show that Europe and the United States have incurred a lot of costs, some of which are as follows:

Short-Term Military Support (US$17 billion): This includes the transfer of weapons, both US weapons and those purchased from allies, training of Ukrainian military personnel, and intelligence sharing.

Long-Term Military Support (US$10.4 billion): This consists of money that Ukraine can use to buy new weapons, mostly from the United States but also elsewhere.

US Military Operations (US$9.6 billion): In the spring, the United States sent about 18,000 troops to Europe to strengthen defenses and deter Russia. These deployments cost money above what was planned in the DOD budget.

DOD General Support (US$1.2 billion): This covers a wide variety of activities, some only tangentially related to Ukraine, to prepare DOD for future conflicts.

Indirect costs can also be referred to human costs, war refugees and the EU energy debate.

Europe, as a place on the front line of Ukrainian immigrants, suffered from two aspects. First, Ukrainian refugees directly entered Europe. Second, there was the issue of gas and energy crisis.

Nearly 8 million refugees fleeing Ukraine have been recorded across Europe, while an estimated 8 million have been displaced within the country by late May 2022. Approximately one-quarter of the country's total population had left their homes in Ukraine by March 20, 2022.

Another impact of the Ukraine war was on the European benchmark natural gas prices.

The countries of the European Union, as importers of Russian gas, were deprived of energy due to their positions, and the energy challenge has turned into a super crisis for several months.

The benchmark price spiked to 227 euros after Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24, 2022, and to around 350 euros in late August. As of January 03, 2023, the benchmark price is about 74 euros.

Of course, the same cases are also true for Russia; the country has also suffered a lot of financial losses in addition to the loss of lives.

The sanctions of the European Union and the United States against this country, especially in the field of energy, are one of these losses.

 

Friday 18 March 2022

Ukraine may become another Syria, Iraq or Afghanistan

It is essentially necessary to bring the war in Ukraine to an immediate end.  The longer the war continues the more complicated it will become to resolve.

The Soviet war on Afghanistan in the 1980s brought extremists mostly from Muslim states to the landlocked country. 

The invasion made the country a safe place for terrorism to breed. The fact that al-Qaeda network used Afghanistan as a platform to advance its vicious goals is clear to all.

The war in the country led to catastrophe one after another. The extremist ideology in Afghanistan gave birth to other groups whose brutality superseded that of al-Qaeda. Daesh, also called ISIS/ISIL.

Abu Musab al-Zarqawi is quite a familiar name. Al-Zarqawi, who ran a terrorist training camp in Afghanistan, went to Iraq to quench his thirst for more bloodshed by brutalizing Iraqi civilians and soldiers after the United States invaded the country in March 2003. In fact, the war on Iraq spread the area of activity by extremists.

The chaos that followed the civil war in Syria also brought extremists to the country from dozens of countries, including Chechens from Russia. They poured into the country from Indonesia and Malaysia in Southeast Asia to those in Western European countries.

The wars in Afghanistan, Iraq and Syria are an eye opener about the dangers of extremism.

Now those extremists who used Syria, Iraq and Afghanistan as their battlegrounds, may seek to find a way to Ukraine, especially as the domain of their action has been greatly reduced in these countries. They are adventurers who have thirst to kill and don’t care who is right or wrong. This is in addition to far-right extremists from Europe and North America who are already seeking to enter or may have entered Ukraine to fight the Russians.

In a report on March 03, Brookings said, “When foreign fighters deploy, violence against civilians goes up.” It added, “Far-right militias are already declaring they plan to exploit the war in Ukraine.”

Also, in a report on February 25, one day after Russia invaded Ukraine, the New York Times reported, “The Russian attack on Ukraine has prompted a flurry of activity among far-right European militia leaders, who have taken to the internet to raise funds, recruit fighters and plan travel to the front lines to confront the country’s invaders.” The Times used the SITE Intelligence Group, a private organization that specializes in tracking extremist groups, as its source.

Before it is too late and extremists turn their guns against Ukrainians all must work hard to end the conflict. Failure to silence the guns in Ukraine could turn the country like Syria, Iraq or Afghanistan.