United States seeks to militarize unrest in Iran

The former US national security advisor, John Bolton, has said that rioters in Iran are getting weapons, an allegation reminiscent of how Syria plunged into a civil war.

In an interview with the Persian service of the BBC, Johan Bolton said the recent unrest in Iran is different from what happened in previous times because this time, protesters are receiving weapons from the Iraqi Kurdistan. 

Bolton is known for his hawkish stances against Iran and has long been the fiercest advocate of regime change in Iran. He has openly called for bombing Iran.

Bolton’s remarks come at a time when the Iranian elites are warning of a Syria blueprint for Iran aimed at bringing about the disintegration of Iran into smaller states fractured along ethnic and religious lines.

On Tuesday, Mohammad Dehghan, advisor to the Iranian president on legal affairs, said the recent developments in Iran were beyond protests and that the enemy seeks to use the unrest to disintegrate Iran.

“The recent incidents in the country have been beyond protests and as was admitted by a Pahlavi regime official, the enemy, using everything in its power, especially the media, is seeking to disintegrate Iran through regime change,” Dehghan was quoted as saying on Tuesday by IRNA.

Adding substance to that is the repetitive announcements by Iranian officials in recent days that border guards have detained several shipments of weapons headed to Iran. A senior border guard commander has said that the seizure of weapons shipments has risen as compared to last year. According to the commander, more than 600 contraband rifles have been seized by border guards over the last 45 days. 

This speaks to the efforts currently underway to militarize unrest in Iran, which suffers from many hardships. Iranian officials and analysts have said that the enemies seek to turn Iran into another Syria using public grievances. 

Many Iranians from all walks of life have fallen victim to that effort. Over the course of the unrest, many Basij members and clerics, along with ordinary people, have been targeted and in some cases martyred. A case in point is Sajad Shahraki, the prayer Imam of Zahedan’s Molaye Mottaqian Mosque who was assassinated in a drive-by shooting.

The police chief of Sistan-Baluchistan province said mask-wearing gunmen, using two Pride and Peugeot 405 sedans, fired into the car of Shahraki at point-blank range, hitting him in the head and chest.

Many Iranian analysts believe such incidents are meant to foment sedition in Iran with the ultimate goal of breaking up Iran. The disintegration of Iran is now even acknowledged by those who work for foreign countries.

A recently leaked private conversation between a BBC Persian anchor with her mother showed that the enemies have placed the goal of disintegrating Iran high on their agenda.

The anchor, Rana Rahimpour, told her mother that the enemies do not want a unified Iran and that their support for the unrest in the country isn’t sincere. Instead, she said, they seek to break up Iran through the unrest because a weaker Iran will ensure their interests. 

 

Increasing risk of tanker accidents

Brokers Poten highlighted the risk in its weekly report with the dark or shadow fleet expected to grow substantially when the EU import and G7 price cap for Russian oil are implemented. The illicit trades generally involve older vessels that would otherwise be recycled, with the bare minimum of repairs or maintenance, reported Seatrade Maritime News.

The trades though for less reputable owners willing to take the risk are extremely lucrative and Poten noted that estimates from knowledgeable observers suggest that shipping rates for Venezuelan or Iranian barrels can be two or three times the market rate for legitimate voyages.

“The illegal nature of the business makes it impossible to use reputable crew managers and arranging proper insurance is difficult as well. To conceal the illicit nature of their employment, owners of these tankers frequently change the vessel’s name and ownership and flag them in jurisdictions that are known to be less strict,” Poten said.

“As a result of these factors, the risk that these vessels are involved in accidents is elevated and so is the potential harm that could be inflicted on the crews and the environment, in case of an oil spill.”

This risk has been highlighted in two recent incidents. The 21-year old, Djibouti-flagged, VLCC Young Yong which ran aground in Indonesia waters in the Singapore Strait was reported to be carrying a crude oil cargo from Malaysia to China.

“The VLCC in question was recently blacklisted by the US Treasury’s Office of Foreign Asset Control (OFAC) because it was part of the so-called ‘Dark Fleet’, involved in the illicit transportation of Iranian oil,” Poten said. 

Meanwhile a 20-year old Aframax loaded with Russian crude was briefly adrift off the Spanish coast.

The dark fleet has grown dramatically over the last two years from 70 vessels in November 2020 to 257 currently. The latest sanctions on Russian oil could result in further substantial growth and Poten noted the brisk sales of secondhand tanker tonnage despite rising prices for older tonnage. It said least 60 VLCCs, 42 Suezmaxes and 93 Aframaxes, of over 15-years of age had changed hands year-to-date.

“So far, Russian exports have only been impacted by limited sanctions. However, the average age of the Aframaxes tankers, which carry the vast majority of Russia’s exports has already increased markedly. If Russia will start utilizing more vessels from the Dark Fleet, the average age of their export tankers will rise dramatically and unfortunately, so will the risk of incidents,” Poten concluded.

 

 

Another gas reserve found off Israel shore

Energean PLC has announced a  new  commercial natural gas discovery of 13 billion cubic meters (bcm) off the shore of Israel as a result of its exploratory drilling well dubbed Zeus-1. It has also confirmed the presence of an additional 3.75 bcm at its Athena site.

These discoveries have confirmed the company’s suspicions that the so-called “Olympus area” located between the Karish and Tanin gas fields are both voluminous and commercially viable.

The company is now plotting its next steps toward capitalizing on the area’s bounty and expects to update the market on the total resource volumes within the Olympus area, taking into account the uplifted volumes in both Zeus and Athena, in early 2023.

“Following the start of production from our Karish reservoir last week, I am pleased that our drilling program, which has now delivered five successful wells from five, continues to deliver value, ensuring security of supply and energy competition across the region,” said Mathios Rigas, CEO of Energean.

“We are evaluating a number of potential commercialization options for the Olympus area that leverage both new and our existing, unique Med-based infrastructure, and we expect to commit to a development concept in 1H 2023,” he said.

In addition, Energean has moved its Stena IceMax drilling rig in order to begin drilling at its Hercules drilling site, the final well in its 2022 drilling campaign.

 

Global Energy Trading orders methanol bunker tanker

Global Energy Trading (GET) and Stellar Shipmanagement have ordered Singapore’s first dedicated methanol bunker tanker to be built in Japan.

GET and Stellar have ordered a 4,000 dwt, IMO Type 2 Chemical and Oil Tanker, at Sasaki Shipbuilding in Japan.

The new vessel will join GET’s fleet in Singapore at the end of 2023 and will be the first Category A bunker tanker in the world’s largest bunkering port. The new tanker will allow GET to offer methanol bunkers in Singapore from 2024, and the company is also expanding its offerings with biofuel.

On the occasion, Loh Hong Leong, Group Managing Director of Global Energy Group, commented, “We have made an important step to support the industry’s effort on carbon emissions reduction by introducing alternative and green fuel bunkering supply chain solutions. The new tanker could pave the way for the next generation of a more versatile bunkering tanker.”

The two companies have partnered with Bureau Veritas which is also classing the newbuilding. A team from Stellar will supervise construction of the tanker in Japan.

Kelvin Kang, General Manager of Stellar Shipmanagement, commented, “Methanol as bunker fuel will add a new dimension to the bunkering industry in Singapore, we are pleased to work with Authorities, Class BV and relevant industry experts to develop methanol bunkering procedures and standards for the safe bunkering and STS operations.”

Top 10 donors in the US midterm elections

Rich Americans are poised to spend big amounts in this midterm election to impact down-ballot races for their candidates of choice. Eye-popping is that 10 wealthy individuals poured an aggregate US$540 million into this year’s elections. 

The 2022 midterm election cycle has seen a boom in spending in the lead-up to Election Day. Research group OpenSecrets estimates that federal election spending increased by nearly US$2 billion as compared to 2018.

These mega-donors are giving most of their money to outside groups such as super PACs that can raise and spend unlimited sums on election advertisements.  

Roughly 62% of their donations boosted Republicans, who have received far more support than Democrats from big money groups leading up to November, a reversal from recent elections where wealthy donors favored Democrats.  

Here are the 10 largest donors in the midterms, according to the most recent Federal Election Commission filings compiled by OpenSecrets: 

George Soros  

Soros, a Hungarian-born Holocaust survivor who made his fortune as a hedge fund manager, has donated US$128.5 million to his own outside group, Democracy PAC, which then doled out millions of dollars to several super PACs supporting Democratic candidates.  

His group donated US$10.5 million to Senate Majority PAC, a super PAC controlled by Senate Majority Leader Charles Schumer. It also gave US$1 million to J Street Action Fund, a pro-Israel group that backs Democrats, and Planned Parenthood’s super PAC. If the group makes other donations, they won’t be revealed until after the election.  

Soros has long been a target of right-wing attacks and conspiracy theories over his prolific donations to Democrats. His donations to support democracy in Hungary drew attacks from the country’s authoritarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán that included antisemitic tropes.  

Richard Uihlein  

Uihlein is the co-founder of shipping giant Uline, one of the nation’s largest privately owned companies. The Illinois-based billionaire has emerged as a major force for Republicans in recent elections, and the 2022 election cycle marks his highest donation total. 

He’s the top donor to Club for Growth, one of the most powerful conservative super PACs, giving US$23.2 million. Uihlein also gave US$3.5 million to a group backing Sen. Ron Johnson, continuing his longstanding efforts to influence key Wisconsin races.  

Kenneth Griffin  

Griffin, the CEO of Miami-based hedge fund Citadel, is one of the wealthiest mega-donors, with an estimated net worth of US$31 billion, according to Forbes. 

He gave US$18.5 million to the Congressional Leadership Fund, a super PAC controlled by House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, making him the top individual donor to the group that is backing dozens of House GOP challengers. He gave another US$10 million to the Senate Leadership Fund, which is affiliated with Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell. 

Last year, “meme stock” traders accused Citadel of colluding with trading platform Robinhood to halt trading of GameStop stock. Griffin denied that his firm was involved in the decision during a congressional hearing on the issue and lawsuits against Citadel were dismissed.

Jeff Yass  

Yass is the billionaire founder of quantitative trading firm Susquehanna International Group. He’s a longtime GOP donor who backs candidates favoring minimal taxes and government regulation and is vice chair of the libertarian Cato Institute’s board.

Yass donated US$15 million to the School Freedom Fund, accounting for the vast majority of the Club for Growth-aligned group’s fundraising. The super PAC aired ads attacking Democratic candidates over COVID-19 school closures and critical race theory and waded into GOP primaries.  

He donated US$5 million to a super PAC supporting Sen. Rand Paul’s reelection and gave US$1.9 million in bitcoin to Crypto Freedom PAC, a pro-crypto group that is backing GOP Senate hopeful Blake Masters in Arizona.   

Timothy Mellon   

Mellon, a longtime GOP mega-donor, is the grandson of banking tycoon Andrew Mellon and was chairman of a transportation firm that was bought by freight rail giant CSX this year.  

The Wyoming-based billionaire donated US$10 million to the Congressional Leadership Fund. He gave another US$5 million to the Sentinel Action Fund, a super PAC aligned with the Heritage Foundation’s action fund that spent most of its money on ads attacking Sen. Mark Kelly. 

A major supporter of former President Trump and his efforts to tighten immigration laws, Mellon received attention for donating US$53 million to Texas’s border wall fund last year.  

Sam Bankman-Fried  

Bankman-Fried, the founder and CEO of crypto exchange FTX, is a new addition to the list of top donors.  

The billionaire crypto executive sent most of his donations — US$28 million — to his Protect Our Future PAC, a super PAC focused on preventing the next pandemic that mostly backed Democrats facing progressives in primaries.  

That’s a fraction of the US$1 billion total Bankman-Fried previously said he would spend to support Democratic candidates in the midterms and the 2024 election. He called his previous statement a “dumb quote” in an interview with Politico earlier this month, arguing that more donations can only go so far in the general election. 

“At some point, when you’ve given your message to voters, there’s just not a whole lot more you can do,” Bankman-Fried said.  

Fred Eychaner  

Eychaner, a longtime Democratic mega-donor and supporter of LGBT causes, runs Newsweb Corporation, which owns several radio stations and newspapers in the Chicago area.  

He’s the top donor to Democrats’ House Majority PAC. He gave US$9 million to House Majority PAC and donated another US$8 million to Senate Majority PAC. Eychaner consistently gives the maximum allowed donation to the Democratic National Committee and Democrats’ other campaign committees. 

Stephen Schwarzman  

Schwarzman runs the Blackstone Group, one of the world’s largest private equity firms.  

The New York City billionaire donated US$10 million to both the Senate Leadership Fund and the Congressional Leadership Fund, providing a huge boost to Republicans’ bid to retake control of Congress. He’s been a top 10 donor in each of the last three elections.  

Peter Thiel  

Thiel, who co-founded PayPal and currently runs data analytics firm Palantir Technologies, has emerged a major GOP booster.   

Thiel is joining the list of top donors for the first time, primarily placing his bets on two GOP Senate hopefuls. He gave US$15 million to a super PAC supporting Arizona’s Blake Masters, a former executive at Thiel’s firm, and another US$15 million to a super PAC supporting J.D. Vance in Ohio.  

Larry Ellison  

With an estimated net worth of nearly US$100 billion, according to Forbes, Ellison is by far the wealthiest individual on this list.  

Oracle Corp Chairman donated US$20 million to the Opportunity Matters Fund, a super PAC aligned with Sen. Tim Scott that is backing GOP candidates in tight Senate races. 

Courtesy: The Hill

Creating unrest in Iran was American ‘Plan B’

Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian said Saturday that Iran’s recent unrest was ‘Plan-B’ pursued by the United States and it failed in implementing this plan.

Speaking to reporters, Amir Abdollahian said, “What our nation has seen over the last 40 days was the implementation of the very Plan B that the Americans wanted to pursue. But they failed in this regard due to the nation’s intuition and the guidance of the supreme leader.”

Iranian Foreign Minister also responded to Western allegations that Iran provided Russia with drones and missiles for use in the Ukraine war.

He said the West’s kerfuffle over the provision of missiles is entirely wrong, while the issues pertaining to the drones are right, according to Iranian state news agency IRNA.

“We provided a limited number of drones to Russia months before the start of the Ukraine war. And we agreed with the Ukrainian foreign minister that if you have any evidence of Russia using Iranian drones in Ukraine, give us the evidence,” he added.

He said this was agreed two weeks ago in a European country and a political and defense delegation from Iran went to that European country for a meeting with Ukrainian officials but the Ukrainian side called off the meeting in the last minute.

“The reason for the absence of the Ukrainian side was that the United States and some European countries, especially Germany, asked Ukraine not to participate in this meeting. They told the Ukrainian officials that while we want to impose sanctions against Iran over the provision of drones to Russia, you want to drink coffee with Iranians in a European country!” Amir Abdollahian said.

He added, “After that, in the telephone conversation that we had with the foreign minister of Ukraine last week, we agreed that if there is any evidence, they will provide us with it, and if the Ukrainian side sticks to its promise, we will be able to examine this issue in the coming days, and their evidence will be taken into consideration.”

In the phone conversation between Amir Abdollahian and his Ukrainian counterpart, Dmytro Kuleba, the two sides discussed the latest developments related to the Ukraine crisis and bilateral topics.

 Amir Abdollahian strongly dismissed the claims about the use of Iranian drones in the war in Ukraine, saying, “The Islamic Republic has had the experience of the eight-year imposed war and is thus opposed to war in Ukraine, Yemen, and elsewhere.”

The Iranian foreign minister said, “We have good ties with Russia and we have had defense cooperation from the past, but our policy toward the Ukraine war is to respect the territorial integrity of countries, not to send weapons to the conflicting parties, and to stop the war and the people’s displacement.”

“The Islamic Republic of Iran’s policy is fully transparent, is based on a unified standard, and is against war,” he said, according to the Iranian foreign ministry.

“We are ready for convening technical sessions with the participation of military experts between the two countries, without the need for any intermediary,” the foreign minister added.

He described the statements of some Western officials as baseless and referred to Tehran’s recurrent efforts to help bring about a ceasefire, adding, we stand ready to help establish a truce.

“I believe Ukraine had better be careful not be influenced by some radical politicians in Europe,” the top diplomat said.

The Ukrainian Foreign Minister, in turn, praised the Islamic Republic of Iran’s position on not dispatching arms for use in the Ukraine war, saying talks between technical military delegations of the two countries are important.

He pointed to Ukraine’s independence in its foreign relations and said his country does not take action under the influence of others.

The chief diplomat explained the consequences of war in his country and said Ukraine strives to safeguard the security and activities of embassies in accordance with international conventions.

Iran has said it does not support any side in the Ukraine war. It has said it support the settlement of the Ukraine crisis through dialogue and political ways. However, the West leveled accusations against Iran over the alleged provision of weaponry to Russia.
 

Energy crisis in Europe, only because of following the United States blindly

As the weather gets colder in Europe, the efforts for curbing gas and electricity consumption are reaching their limits as the short-lived relief the European Union was celebrating over the past few months is starting to fade.

Before the United States commenced proxy war in Ukraine, Russia contributed to the lion’s share of European energy imports. With the conflict, now in its ninth month, disrupted that partnership, and no more gas is flowing through Nord Stream 1.

The energy crisis in Europe can be considered from two major aspects: 1) the short-term effects and challenges, and 2) the long-term impacts and solutions.

Considering the condition of the Union’s storage facilities, which according to the International Energy Agency (IEA) are currently 95% full, Europe might be able to pass through this year’s winter but there is a heavy price that it must pay in doing so.

Businesses across Europe are not just curbing their energy use, but continuing on a business as usual basis. They are shutting down factories, downsizing, or relocating. Europe may well be on the way to deindustrialization. The Eurozone manufacturing activity has fallen to the lowest since May 2020.

In its latest analysis of the European energy crisis published on November 03, the IEA said that the union could face a shortage of as much as 30 billion cubic meters (bcm) of natural gas during the next year’s pick summer period for refilling its gas storage sites.

In the report dubbed “Never too early to prepare for next winter: Europe’s gas balance for 2023-2024” IEA cautions that the cushion provided by current storage levels, as well as recent lower gas prices and unusually mild temperatures, should not lead to overly optimistic conclusions about the future.

“With the recent mild weather and lower gas prices, there is a danger of complacency creeping into the conversation around Europe’s gas supplies, but we are by no means out of the woods yet,” said IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol.

A look at the IEA report shows that the European Union is going to face a great challenge in meeting its energy needs in the coming years and considering the heavy costs of shipping gas from long distances, Iran could have been a significant contributor to the resolution of this issue.

Having the world’s biggest gas resources, Iran could provide Europe with the energy it desperately needs if the infrastructure for a pipeline were there or if the constant sanctions have not had prevented Iran from accessing the technology required for liquefying natural gas on large scales.

Unlike oil, natural gas is hard to be shipped on large scales in the form of gas, and therefore it is exported either through pipelines or by turning it into Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG), but that is an expensive and high-investment proposition. Iran currently does not have the infrastructure to export large amounts of gas to Europe.

Despite all these limitations, Iran has constantly voiced its readiness to help Europe ease at least part of its energy demand.

In early October, Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister Ali Baqeri Kani highlighted the impact of sanctions on energy security in Europe amid the Russia-Ukraine war and voiced Tehran’s preparedness to help restore energy security to the continent.

"It was thought for many years that countries like Iran should pay the cost of being sanctioned, but now the Europeans have realized that imposing sanctions has also a price," Baqeri Kani said.

Considering the current experiences and looking into the future, European governments should see clearly the negative impacts that the sanctions have had and are going to have on global energy security and therefore more efforts should be made to help the nuclear talks reach the “ending” that would be a “win-win” scenario for both sides.