Biden celebrates one of the best weeks of his presidency

President Biden, who has been struggling with his approval polling for months amid a declining economy and international crises, started this weekend with one of the best weeks of his presidency. Let’s run through the week:

Al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri was killed in a drone strike. President Joe Biden said Monday in a speech from the White House. "I authorized a precision strike that would remove him from the battlefield, once and for all," Biden said.

Zawahiri, who just turned 71 years old, had remained a visible international symbol of the group, 11 years after the US killed Osama bin Laden. At one point, he acted as bin Laden's personal physician.

Zawahiri was killed in "a precise tailored airstrike" using two Hellfire missiles. The drone strike conducted on last Saturday was authorized by Biden following weeks of meetings with his Cabinet and key advisers, the official said on Monday, adding that no American personnel were on the ground in Kabul at the time of the strike.

Kansas voters turned out in droves to protect abortion access by a nearly 20-point margin. Keep in mind: The red state was the first to vote on abortion since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade.

Voters in Kansas rejected a proposed state constitutional amendment Tuesday that would have said there was no right to an abortion in the state, according to The Associated Press.

Kansas was the first state to vote on abortion rights since the US Supreme Court handed down its ruling in Dobbs v. Jackson's Women's Health Organization.

President Joe Biden hailed Tuesday's vote and called on Congress to pass a law to restore nationwide abortion rights that were provided by Roe.

"This vote makes clear what we know the majority of Americans agree that women should have access to abortion and should have the right to make their own health care decisions," Biden said in a statement.

Sen. Kyrsten Sinema agreed to support the reconciliation bill, giving Democrats enough votes to pass a major component of Biden’s agenda. There had been significant doubt for the entirety of Biden’s presidency that this deal would be made.

Sinema announced Thursday evening that she had reached a deal with Senate Majority Leader Charles Schumer that could pave the way for Democrats to pass their budget reconciliation package.

The announcement paves the way for Sinema to vote Saturday for a motion to proceed to a budget reconciliation package that would reform the tax code, tackle climate change, reduce the cost of prescription drugs and shrink the federal deficit.    

A robust July jobs report calmed fears that the US was headed into a recession. An aggregate 528,000 jobs were added and the unemployment rate fell to 3.5 percent in July, according to data released Friday by the Labor Department, a stunning gain that defied predictions of a slowdown.

Economists expected the US to have added roughly 250,000 jobs in July and keep the jobless rate at 3.6 percent, according to consensus estimates released before the report.

The stunning July jobs gain will raise questions about how close the US economy actually is to a recession after months of growing concern over a sharp slowdown. The resilience of the labor market also means the Federal Reserve may have more room — or at least feel more pressure — to rapidly raise interest rates and fight inflation without fears of triggering steep job losses.

Last but not the least, gasoline prices have continued to decline for more than 50 consecutive days.

 

China announces sanctions against Nancy Pelosi

Chinese foreign ministry has announced it will issue sanctions against US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and her direct family relatives after she travelled to Taiwan this week.

The ministry said Pelosi’s trip to Taiwan was a serious violation of China’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, and a serious violation of the one-China principle.

Pelosi arrived in Taiwan on Tuesday night and met officials, including Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen, before flying out on Wednesday afternoon. The trip was a stop on her Asian tour and drew the ire of Beijing.

Taiwanese leader says island ‘won’t provoke but will firmly defend’ amid mainland military drills

Websites in Taiwan, including those of its defence and foreign affairs ministries, have gone offline amid heightened tension with Beijing and as mainland China holds military exercises in areas surrounding the island.

Several government websites in Taiwan have been subjected to cyberattacks in the days following the arrival of Pelosi in Taiwan.

The websites of Taiwan’s National Defence Ministry and Foreign Affairs Ministry went down in the early hours of Friday but were soon back online. Both sites were also inaccessible late on Wednesday night.

Taiwan’s Chi Yang-class frigate Ning Yang is anchored at a harbour in Keelung city, Taiwan, on Friday. Beijing’s military started to a series of live-fire drills in six maritime areas around Taiwan’s main island to run until Sunday.

Lo Ping-cheng, Taiwan Cabinet spokesman, said on Thursday attack traffic during this period was about twice as high as past attacks.

“The peak was on Tuesday, and the attack traffic was 23 times the previous peak,” Lo said.

Lo said targets of recent cyberattacks on government departments include Taiwan’s presidential office and the defence and foreign affairs ministries.

Three grain ships scheduled to leave Ukraine ports on Friday

Three ships carrying a total of 58,041 tons of corn have been authorized to leave Ukrainian ports on Friday as part of a deal to unblock grain exports.

The first vessel carrying Ukrainian grain allowed to leave port since the start of the war set sail from Odesa on Monday bound for Lebanon, under a safe passage deal brokered by Turkey and the United Nations.

The Joint Coordination Centre in Istanbul, which groups Russian, Ukrainian, Turkish and UN personnel, said two ships would leave from Chornomorsk and one from Odesa on Friday.

"The three outbound vessels are estimated to depart in the morning from their respective ports," it said.

From Chornomorsk, the Polarnet would leave for Karasu in Turkey with 12,000 metric tons of corn and the Rojen would take 13,041 tons of corn to Teesport in Britain. From Odesa, the Navistar would take 33,000 tons of corn to Ringaskiddy in Ireland.

The Turkish bulk carrier Osprey S, flying the flag of Liberia, was expected to arrive in Ukraine's Chornomorsk port on Friday, the regional administration of Odesa said. It would be the first ship to arrive at a Ukrainian port during the war.

As of Thursday afternoon, Osprey S was anchored in the Sea of Marmara, around 1 kilometer (0.62 mile) off Istanbul's Asian coast, along with other ships waiting to cross the Bosphorus in to the Black Sea, according to a Reuters journalist.

According to Western media, Russian President Vladimir Putin sent troops into Ukraine on February 24, sparking the biggest conflict in Europe since World War Two and causing a global energy and food crisis. Ukraine and Russia produce about one third of global wheat and Russia is Europe's main energy supplier.

 

Quantifying OPEC Plus spare production capacity a difficult task

Reportedly, OPEC leaders Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates stand ready to deliver a significant increase in oil output should the world face a severe supply crisis this winter.

When the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC Plus) decided on Wednesday to raise oil output by a mere 100,000 barrels per day (bpd), it broke a taboo with a rare reference to the group's spare production capacity.

The statement referred to the severely limited availability of spare capacity, saying that meant it needed to keep it in reserve for severe supply disruptions.

At first glance, that reads as an acknowledgement that OPEC’s leader Saudi Arabia has almost no room to raise output, as mentioned by French President Emmanuel Macron in a conversation with US President Joe Biden last month.

Three sources, speaking on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the issue, said Saudi Arabia and the UAE could pump significantly more, but would only do so if the supply crisis worsened.

"With possibly no gas in Europe this winter, with a potential price cap on Russian oil sales in the New Year, we can’t be throwing every barrel on the market at the moment, one of the sources said.

The sources did not quantify any increase, but said Saudi Arabia, the UAE and some other OPEC members possessed around 2.0 million to 2.7 million barrels per day of spare production capacity.

"The only time we can prove we have more spare capacity is when it comes to a long-lasting crisis," the source said, adding that would be when OPEC members would raise output.

That could be as soon as this winter, the sources said, as the political and economic standoff between Russia, a member of OPEC+, and the West over Moscow's invasion of Ukraine show no sign of easing.

The invasion, begun on February 24, which Moscow terms a "special military operation" sent European gas prices to records and lifted international Brent crude to 14-year highs.

"With spare capacity below 2 million bpd in August, we believe OPEC Plus preferred to keep their powder dry and use their buffer to address potential future disruptions," PVM's Tamas Varga said in a note.

"There are growing fears of demand destruction and if the current trend continues, additional barrels would put unwanted downside pressure on prices and, at the same time, would unnecessarily deplete thinning spare capacity."

After Biden visited Saudi Arabia in July to press for extra oil to cool international markets, analysts had speculated OPEC Plus would increase supply.

The Saudi trip was scheduled only after OPEC Plus announced in early June that it would increase output in July and August. Wednesday’s meeting discussed output for September.

Most OPEC Plus members have struggled to meet production targets having already exhausted their output potential following years of under-investment in new capacity.

In that context, Wednesday's decision to increase production targets by 100,000 bpd, one of the smallest increases since OPEC quotas were introduced in 1982, was a goodwill gesture, one of the sources said.

"It is small, yes, but it shows that OPEC Plus, given the fact that it includes so many countries, like Russia, Iran, Venezuela with all their grievances, managed to garner consensus and move forward," the source said.

Following Wednesday's decision, the White House said President Biden would remain focused on keeping fuel prices down.

 

US will not abandon Taiwan, says Pelosi

US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi left Taiwan on Wednesday after a visit that heightened tensions with China. Pelosi said, she and other members of Congress in her delegation showed they will not abandon their commitment to the self-governing island.

Pelosi, the first US speaker to visit the island in more than 25 years, courted Beijing’s wrath with the visit and set off more than a week of debate over whether it was a good idea after news of it leaked. In Taipei she remained calm but defiant.

“Today the world faces a choice between democracy and autocracy,” she said in a short speech during a meeting with Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen. “America’s determination to preserve democracy, here in Taiwan and around the world remains ironclad.”

Pelosi arrived at a military base in South Korea on Wednesday evening ahead of meetings with political leaders in Seoul, after which she will visit Japan.

Both countries are US alliance partners, together hosting about 80,000 American personnel as a bulwark against North Korea’s nuclear ambitions and China’s increased assertiveness in the South China and East China seas.

 “Such an act equals to sealing off Taiwan by air and sea, such an act covers our country’s territory and territorial waters, and severely violates our country’s territorial sovereignty,” Capt. Jian-chang Yu said at a briefing by the National Defense Ministry.

The Chinese military exercises, including live fire, are to start Thursday and be the largest aimed at Taiwan since 1995, when China fired missiles in a large-scale exercise to show its displeasure at a visit by then-Taiwanese President Lee Teng-hui to the United States.

Taiwanese President Tsai responded firmly Wednesday to Beijing’s military intimidation.

“Facing deliberately heightened military threats, Taiwan will not back down,” Tsai said at her meeting with Pelosi. “We will firmly uphold our nation’s sovereignty and continue to hold the line of defense for democracy.”

In Washington, John Kirby, spokesperson for the National Security Council, said Wednesday that the United States was anticipating more military drills and other actions from China in coming days as the country’s armed forces “flex their muscles.”

Still, “we don’t believe we’re at the brink now, and there’s certainly no reason for anybody to be talking about being at the brink going forward,” Kirby said on ABC’s “Good Morning America.”

China’s official Xinhua News Agency announced the military actions Tuesday night, along with a map outlining six different areas around Taiwan. Arthur Zhin-Sheng Wang, a defense studies expert at Taiwan’s Central Police University, said three of the areas infringe on Taiwanese waters, meaning they are within 12 nautical miles (22 kilometers) of shore.

Pelosi’s trip has heightened US-China tensions more than visits by other members of Congress because of her high-level position as leader of the House of Representatives. She is the first speaker of the House to visit Taiwan in 25 years, since Newt Gingrich in 1997. However, other members of Congress have visited Taiwan in the past year.

Tsai, thanking Pelosi for her decades of support for Taiwan, presented the speaker with a civilian honor, the Order of the Propitious Clouds.

Shortly after Pelosi landed Tuesday night, China announced live-fire drills that reportedly started that night, as well as the four-day exercises starting Thursday.

The People’s Liberation Army Air Force also flew a contingent of 21 war planes Tuesday night, including fighter jets, toward Taiwan. Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Xie Feng also summoned the US Ambassador in Beijing, Nicholas Burns, to convey the country’s protests the same night.

Pelosi addressed Beijing’s threats Wednesday morning, saying she hopes it’s clear that while China has prevented Taiwan from attending certain international meetings, “that they understand they will not stand in the way of people coming to Taiwan as a show of friendship and of support.”

She noted that support for Taiwan is bipartisan in Congress and praised the island’s democracy. She stopped short of saying that the US would defend Taiwan militarily, emphasizing that Congress is “committed to the security of Taiwan, in order to have Taiwan be able to most effectively defend themselves.”

Her focus has always been the same, she said, going back to her 1991 visit to Beijing’s Tiananmen Square, when she and other lawmakers unfurled a small banner supporting democracy two years after a bloody military crackdown on protesters at the square. That visit was also about human rights and what she called dangerous technology transfers to “rogue countries.”

Pelosi visited a human rights museum in Taipei that details the history of the island’s martial law era and met with some of Taiwan’s most prominent rights activists, including an exiled former Hong Kong bookseller who was detained by Chinese authorities, Lam Wing-kee.

Pelosi, who is leading the trip with five other members of Congress, also met with representatives from Taiwan’s legislature.

“Madam Speaker’s visit to Taiwan with the delegation, without fear, is the strongest defense of upholding human rights and consolidation of the values of democracy and freedom,” Tsai Chi-chang, vice president of Taiwan’s legislature, said in welcome.

The administration of US President Joe Biden has sought to tone down the volume on the visit, insisting there’s no change in America’s longstanding “one-China policy,” which recognizes Beijing but allows informal relations and defense ties with Taipei.

Pelosi said her delegation has “heft,” including Gregory Meeks, chair of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, and Raja Krishnamoorthi from the House Intelligence Committee. Reps. Andy Kim and Mark Takano are also in the delegation.

She also mentioned Rep. Suzan DelBene, whom Pelosi said was instrumental in the passage of a US$280 billion bill aimed at boosting American manufacturing and research in semiconductor chips — an industry that Taiwan dominates and is vital for modern electronic

 

 

OPEC Plus agrees to increase oil production by paltry 100,000 bpd

OPEC Plus in its meeting today (Wednesday) agreed to raise oil output by 100,000 barrels per day (bpd), a quantity analysts say is an insult to US President Joe Biden. In his recent trip to Saudi Arabia, the producer group's leader, Biden had asked to pump more to help the United States and the global economy.

The increase, equivalent to 86 seconds of daily global oil demand, follows weeks of speculation that Biden's trip to the Middle East and Washington's clearance of missile defence system sales to Riyadh and the United Arab Emirates will bring more oil to the world market.

"That is so little as to be meaningless, from a physical standpoint, it is a marginal blip. As a political gesture, it is almost insulting," said Raad Alkadiri, Managing Director for energy, climate, and sustainability at Eurasia Group.

The increase of 100,000 bpd will be one of the smallest since OPEC quotas were introduced in 1982, OPEC data shows.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, led by Russia, a group known as OPEC Plus that was formed in 2017, had been increasing production by about 430,000 to 650,000 bpd a month.

They had struggled to meet full targets as most members have exhausted their output potential following years of under-investment in new capacity. Combined with disruption linked to Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February, the lack of spare supply has driven up energy markets and spurred inflation.

With US inflation around 40-year highs and Biden's approval ratings under threat unless gasoline prices fall, the president travelled to Riyadh last month to mend ties with Saudi Arabia, which collapsed after the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi four years ago.

Saudi de-facto ruler, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, whom Western intelligence accused of being behind the Kashoggi murder - which he denies - also travelled to France last month as part of efforts to rebuild ties with the West.

On Tuesday, Washington approved US$5.3 billion worth of defensive missile system sales to the UAE and Saudi Arabia but it has yet to roll back its ban on offensive weapon sales to Riyadh.

OPEC Plus, which will next meet on September 05, 2022, said in a statement that limited spare capacity requires it to be used with great caution in response to severe supply disruptions. It also said a chronic lack of investment in the oil sector will impact adequate supply to meet growing demand beyond 2023.

Sources within OPEC Plus, speaking on condition of anonymity, also cited a need for cooperation with Russia as part of the wider OPEC Plus group.

Benchmark Brent oil futures jumped by around US$2 per barrel after OPEC's decision to trade close to US$101 per barrel.

Shortly after Russia's invasion of Ukraine, which Moscow terms a "special military operation", oil prices rose to their highest in 14 years.

By September, OPEC+ was meant to have wound down all of the record production cuts it implemented in 2020 in response to the impact of the pandemic.

By June this year, OPEC Plus production was almost 3 million barrels per day below its quotas as sanctions on some members and low investment by others crippled its ability to boost output. Only Saudi Arabia and the UAE are believed to have some spare capacity.

French President Emmanuel Macron has said he had been told that Saudi Arabia and the UAE had very limited ability to increase oil production.

 

Pelosi visits Taiwan in utter disregard to Chinese warnings

More than 30 years ago, Nancy Pelosi angered China's government by showing up in Tiananmen Square and unfurling a banner honoring dissidents killed in the 1989 protests.

On Tuesday, August 02, 2022, as speaker of the House of Representatives, Pelosi disregarded China's fiery warnings and landed in Taiwan to support its government and meet with human rights activists.

Pelosi's trip to Taiwan capped her decades as a leading US critic of the Beijing government, especially on rights issues, and underscores the long history of the US Congress taking a harder line than the White House in dealings with Beijing.

Second in line for the presidency after Vice President Kamala Harris, Pelosi became the most senior US politician to travel to Taiwan since then-Speaker Newt Gingrich in 1997. She led a delegation of six other House members.

In 1991, two years after China's bloody crackdown on pro-democracy demonstrations, Pelosi and two other US lawmakers unfurled a banner in Tiananmen reading, "To those who died for democracy in China."

In 2015, she took a group of House Democrats to Tibet, the first such visit since widespread unrest in 2008. Pelosi has regularly spoken out about human rights issues in Tibet and has met the Dalai Lama, whom Beijing reviles as a violent separatist.

China views visits by US officials to Taiwan as sending an encouraging signal to the island's pro-independence camp. Washington does not have official diplomatic ties with Taiwan but is legally bound to provide it with the means to defend itself.

Kharis Templeman, a Taiwan expert at Stanford University's Hoover Institution, said Pelosi, who is 82, would be looking to cement her legacy, while signaling support for Taiwan against pressure from Beijing.

"And what better person to send that signal than the speaker of the House herself? So she's in a very powerful symbolic position to take a stand against the CCP," Templeman said, referring to the Chinese Communist Party.

Beijing considers Taiwan part of its territory and has never renounced using force to bring the island under its control. Taiwan rejects China's sovereignty claims and says only its people can decide its future.

Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian said a trip would lead to "very serious developments and consequences."

Analysts said Beijing's response was likely to be symbolic. "I think China has tried to signal that their reaction would make the US and Taiwan uncomfortable, but would not cause a war," said Scott Kennedy, a China analyst at Washington's Center for Strategic and International Studies.

Congress has long taken a harder line on Taiwan than the White House, no matter whether Democrats, such as President Joe Biden and Pelosi, or Republicans are in charge.

Republicans supported Pelosi's trip. "Any member that wants to go, should. It shows political deterrence to President Xi," Representative Michael McCaul, the top Republican on the House Foreign Affairs Committee, told NBC News. McCaul said he was invited to join Pelosi's Asia trip but was unable to do so.

The executive branch takes ultimate responsibility for foreign policy but relations with Taiwan are one area where Congress wants influence. The Taiwan Relations Act, which has guided relations since 1979, passed Congress with an overwhelming majority after lawmakers rejected a proposal from then-President Jimmy Carter as too weak.

Democrats and Republicans in the US Senate are working on a bill that would overhaul that policy, including by increasing military support for Taiwan and expanding Taipei's role in international organizations.

Pelosi's trip and Beijing’s reaction have pushed the White House to once again express - including in a call between Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping last week - that it has no desire to change the status quo.

Biden cast doubt publicly on the wisdom of the trip last month in a rare break with Pelosi, a close ally.

"I think that the military thinks it's not a good idea right now, but I don't know what the status of it is," Biden told reporters.

Pelosi's office refused ahead of the visit to rule out or confirm a possible stop by the speaker, citing security concerns typical for top US officials.

Pelosi announced on Sunday that she was leading a congressional delegation to Singapore, Malaysia, South Korea and Japan "to reaffirm America's strong and unshakeable commitment to our allies and friends in the region."

US defense officials played down the risk of China's military interfering with Pelosi's visit, but they were worried that an accident could spiral into a larger conflict.