Quantifying OPEC Plus spare production capacity a difficult task

Reportedly, OPEC leaders Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates stand ready to deliver a significant increase in oil output should the world face a severe supply crisis this winter.

When the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC Plus) decided on Wednesday to raise oil output by a mere 100,000 barrels per day (bpd), it broke a taboo with a rare reference to the group's spare production capacity.

The statement referred to the severely limited availability of spare capacity, saying that meant it needed to keep it in reserve for severe supply disruptions.

At first glance, that reads as an acknowledgement that OPEC’s leader Saudi Arabia has almost no room to raise output, as mentioned by French President Emmanuel Macron in a conversation with US President Joe Biden last month.

Three sources, speaking on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the issue, said Saudi Arabia and the UAE could pump significantly more, but would only do so if the supply crisis worsened.

"With possibly no gas in Europe this winter, with a potential price cap on Russian oil sales in the New Year, we can’t be throwing every barrel on the market at the moment, one of the sources said.

The sources did not quantify any increase, but said Saudi Arabia, the UAE and some other OPEC members possessed around 2.0 million to 2.7 million barrels per day of spare production capacity.

"The only time we can prove we have more spare capacity is when it comes to a long-lasting crisis," the source said, adding that would be when OPEC members would raise output.

That could be as soon as this winter, the sources said, as the political and economic standoff between Russia, a member of OPEC+, and the West over Moscow's invasion of Ukraine show no sign of easing.

The invasion, begun on February 24, which Moscow terms a "special military operation" sent European gas prices to records and lifted international Brent crude to 14-year highs.

"With spare capacity below 2 million bpd in August, we believe OPEC Plus preferred to keep their powder dry and use their buffer to address potential future disruptions," PVM's Tamas Varga said in a note.

"There are growing fears of demand destruction and if the current trend continues, additional barrels would put unwanted downside pressure on prices and, at the same time, would unnecessarily deplete thinning spare capacity."

After Biden visited Saudi Arabia in July to press for extra oil to cool international markets, analysts had speculated OPEC Plus would increase supply.

The Saudi trip was scheduled only after OPEC Plus announced in early June that it would increase output in July and August. Wednesday’s meeting discussed output for September.

Most OPEC Plus members have struggled to meet production targets having already exhausted their output potential following years of under-investment in new capacity.

In that context, Wednesday's decision to increase production targets by 100,000 bpd, one of the smallest increases since OPEC quotas were introduced in 1982, was a goodwill gesture, one of the sources said.

"It is small, yes, but it shows that OPEC Plus, given the fact that it includes so many countries, like Russia, Iran, Venezuela with all their grievances, managed to garner consensus and move forward," the source said.

Following Wednesday's decision, the White House said President Biden would remain focused on keeping fuel prices down.

 

Israel upgrades Air Force to attack Iran

Taking refuge behind Iran’s continued development of nuclear capabilities; Israeli Air Force (IAF) has upgraded its F-35 stealth fighter jets to fly from Israel to the Islamic Republic without requiring mid-air refueling. 

The development is a boost to IAF capabilities and comes as the Israeli military has upped its preparations for a future strike against Iran’s nuclear capabilities. 

In addition, the IAF recently integrated a new one-ton bomb into the arsenal of weapons used by the F-35 (known in the IAF as the Adir) that can be carried inside the plane’s internal weapons compartment without jeopardizing its stealth radar signature.

The bomb – made by Rafael Advanced Weapons Systems - is said to be autonomous and protected against jamming and electronic warfare systems. The bomb was recently used in a series of IAF tests, the results of which were presented to Defense Minister Benny Gantz.

The IAF has held four large-scale drills simulating attacks against Iran over the last month. The first drill included confronting Iranian radar and detection systems, like those which protect its nuclear installations.

The second included simulating long-range combat flights – in this case to destinations in Europe. The other drills included defensive measures against cyber weapons and electronic warfare systems, means that could be used by Iran to undermine an Israeli military operation. 

News of the progress in military preparedness came just a day after Prime Minister Naftali Bennett told the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee that Israel’s Iran strategy has changed in the last year, and it is acting against the head... and not just its arms, as we had in recent years.

During the recent military maneuvers, the IAF also drilled cooperation between fifth-generation fighter jets like the F-35 and fourth-generation jets like Israel’s older model F15 and F-16. The planes practiced sharing intelligence, missions and more.

“Iran’s surface-to-air missile systems and radars are crowded and they are not the only challenge,” a defense official said. “We need to be able to attack targets that are significant and the attack needs to be able to cause extensive damage. There are multiple targets in Iran at different ranges.”