Ukraine left stranded to face Russia

In the escalating tensions between Russia and Ukraine, Kiev faces a barrage of explosions. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky reiterated that his country has been left stranded in an escalating tension with Russia.

"We have been left alone to defend our state," Zelensky said in a post-midnight video address to the nation. "Who is ready to fight alongside us? I don't see anyone. Who is ready to give Ukraine a guarantee of NATO membership? Everyone is afraid.”

He said that Russian forces had reached Kiev and asked residents to be watchful and adhere to a curfew.

Despite Russia's designation of him as target number one, Ukraine's President stated he and his family will remain in the country.

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov noted in a statement that Russia will come to terms with Ukraine in case it agreed to stay neutral, and not maintain any Western weapons on its territory.

Peskov emphasized that discussions about the terms of surrender would generally involve Ukraine's demilitarization and denazification.

President Zelensky said that he is not frightened to discuss neutrality, despite the fact that his plea for NATO membership remained rebuffed by European leaders.

While Ukraine was left to face Russia, mercy appeals from the west have started pouring in.

The UN refugee agency was prompt to declare that approximately 100,000 people have been internally displaced; with thousands more having fled Ukraine since the fighting began.

The European Union launched what it called “the harshest package of sanctions” on Moscow early Friday targeting 70% of the Russian financial industry and critical state-owned enterprises.

In a press conference, President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, said that a fresh round of sanctions "will impose massive and severe consequences on Russia for its action, in close coordination with our partners and allies.” She added that Russian assets and banks' access to bloc’s financial markets will be frozen and blocked. 

On Thursday, the United States unveiled a fresh round of sanctions on Moscow, targeting five main Russian banks. Consequently, Canada, Australia, and UK have taken similar steps.

French President Emmanuel Macron announced on Friday that Paris remained useful to leave this path open so that the day when the conditions can be fulfilled, we can obtain a cessation of hostilities.

The US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi noted that lawmakers demand to provide Ukraine with US$600 million for lethal defense weapons.

"What we're doing with Ukraine is making sure that we have humanitarian assistance to help the people; that we have lethal defense weapons going into Ukraine to the tune of US$600 million for them to fight their own fight," she told reporters in San Francisco.

Moral of the story is, “The outcomes of trust on the Western countries bear no fruit. The western countries especially the United States have over and over proven that they will always lay out conditions to trigger a kind of crisis in various countries to capitalize on their weaknesses. Once fallen, these will be left stranded”.

Ukraine export disruptions likely to take edible prices to new highs

The recent dramatic rally in edible prices sparked by the Russia-Ukraine crisis is signaling more pain ahead for grocery shoppers already feeling the strain of soaring food costs.

Prices of staples from wheat to edible oils have rocketed to fresh highs on worries about supply disruptions in the Black Sea region. Ukraine is the world’s second-biggest grains shipper and Russia often tops the ranking for wheat exports. Together they also account for about 80% of sunflower oil trade.

Any disruptions to flows would quickly ripple through to buyers in Asia, Africa and the Middle East, boosting costs for bread and meat and potentially increasing demand for supplies from the Americas or Europe. Ukraine is a major seller of corn to China, and Russia sends wheat all around the world.

With wheat prices hitting the highest since 2008, soybeans touching a nine-year high, and palm and soybean oil near unprecedented levels, consumers are set to feel the pinch as those cost increases make their way to supermarket shelves. Expect more expensive pasta, chocolate, margarine, shampoo — you name it. 

While it’s true that commodity prices tend to be only a small proportion of the prices of final goods, the problem is being compounded by a supply chain that’s been stretched to its limit. Cargo capacity is tight, freight rates are still high, labor is expensive, while geopolitical tensions and an energy crunch are further boosting costs of fertilizers key to growing crops.

“Supply inelasticity is likely to continue as a result of expensive fertilizers, shrinking farmer margins and limited acreage expansion,” said Oscar Tjakra, a senior analyst at Rabobank in Singapore. “We should see these inflationary pressures upstream move along the supply chain to reach consumers in 2022.”

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has commodity traders watching the country’s vast network of infrastructure. Ports are dotted along the Sea of Azov — which is connected to the Black Sea by a strait that runs between Russia and Crimea, which Russia annexed in 2014 — and on the Black Sea coast further west. 

Rich, fertile soils have helped Ukraine become the second-largest grain shipper and the Black Sea region to be known as the world’s breadbasket. The southwestern ports of Odesa, Pivdennyi, Mykolayiv and Chornomorsk handle almost 80% of Ukraine’s grain exports, according to researcher UkrAgroConsult.

 

China will invade Taiwan taking cue from Putin, warns Trump

Donald Trump former President of United States has warned that the Chinese regime will invade Taiwan after seeing Russian troops move into Ukraine.

Such an invasion against self-governing Taiwan will occur because Chinese leader Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin are an example of twin sisters, Trump said during an interview on The Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show. “China is going to be next,” Trump said.

“They’re waiting ’til after the Olympics. Now the Olympics ended, and look at your stopwatch, right? No, he wants that just like … It’s almost like twin sisters right here,” he added.

“Because you have one that wants Taiwan, I think, equally badly,” Trump added. “Somebody said, ‘Who wants it more?’ I think probably equally badly.”

He suggested that neither Putin nor Xi would make a move if he were the president.

“Putin would have never done it, and Xi would have never done it,” the former president said.

Putin and Xi met in China earlier this month. After their meeting, they released a lengthy statement, claiming that the two bordering nations enjoy strong ties in which there would be no limits in their partnership and no forbidden areas of cooperation.

Xi—who is likely to be handed an unprecedented third term in office at an important Chinese Communist Party meeting later this year—vowed in October last year that reunification of Taiwan with China would “definitely be realized.”

On February 23 this year, Taiwan’s President Tsai Ing-wen ordered the island’s national security agencies and military forces to ramp up their efforts to monitor and provide early warning of military developments in the Taiwan Strait and surrounding areas, following a high-level national security meeting on developments in Ukraine.

China and Taiwan are separated by the Taiwan Strait, which is about 80 miles wide at its narrowest point.

The Chinese regime sees Taiwan as part of its territory that must be united with the mainland, by force if necessary. However, Taiwan is a de facto independent country, where Taiwanese people elect their own government officials through democratic elections.

Republican Michael McCaul also hinted a connection between Ukraine and Taiwan, while speaking to ABC earlier this month.

“Xi is watching what is happening in Ukraine, our adversaries are watching,” McCaul said. “If Putin can go into Ukraine with no resistance, certainly, Xi will take Taiwan. He’s always wanted this.”

In light of its ambitions toward Taiwan and the broader Asia–Pacific region, Beijing has been engaged in an aggressive program of military modernization. Part of this includes expanding its nuclear arsenal, with a 2021 Pentagon report estimating that the regime might have 700 deliverable nuclear warheads by 2027, and as many as 1,000 by 2030.

The report pointed out different military actions the Chinese regime might deploy against Taiwan, including air and maritime blockades, precision airstrikes, and a full-scale amphibious invasion.

In recent years, Taiwan has been bearing the brunt of persistent Chinese military harassment, with military jets flying into the island’s air defense identification zone (ADIZ) on a regular basis. According to Taiwan’s defense ministry, the latest incursion happened on February 23, when two J-16 military jets entered the island’s southwestern ADIZ, prompting the island to deploy its military aircraft and air defense missile systems in response.

A recent survey conducted by the Taiwanese Public Opinion Foundation found that most Taiwanese do not believe Russia’s invasion of Ukraine would lead to Beijing attacking the self-governing island. The survey polled 1,079 people for two days ending on February 15.

The survey found that 62.9% said it was either unlikely or impossible that China would attack Taiwan. Meanwhile, 26.6% said it was either very likely or fairly possible that China would attack the island after Russia invades Ukraine.

On February 24, Putin declared a special military operation in Ukraine. Soon afterward, Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky announced martial law and said Russia had conducted strikes on Ukraine’s military infrastructure and border guards.

Russian aggression drew immediate criticism from Republican Ashley Hinson. Writing on Twitter, she stated: “I strongly condemn Putin’s unprovoked military attack on Ukraine. Americans stand with the Ukrainian people who deserve freedom and peace.”

“The world is watching us. We must ensure that our allies, like Taiwan, know they can rely on the US,” Hinson added.

The reasons United States wishes to bring Ukraine under NATO clan

Ever since Ukraine debacle has started I am being asked, why Russia wishes to subjugate Ukraine? Today I read a post in which reasons were given Russia wants to conquer Ukraine. Aren’t these the same reasons United States also wishes to bring Ukraine in the NATO clan. The game resembles old cowboy gun bout, where the winner was who pulled the trigger first.

Ukraine ranks:
1st in Europe in proven recoverable reserves of uranium ores;
2nd in Europe and 10th in the world in titanium ore reserves;
2nd in the world in explored reserves of manganese ores (2.3 billion tons, or 12% of the world’s reserves);
2nd largest iron ore reserves in the world (30 billion tons);
2nd in Europe in mercury ore reserves;
3rd in Europe (13th place in the world) in shale gas reserves (22 trillion cubic meters)
4th in the world by the total value of natural resources;
7th in the world in coal reserves (33.9 billion tons)

Ukraine is an agricultural country:
1st in Europe in arable land area;
3rd in the world by the area of black soil (25% of world’s volume);
1st in the world in exports of sunflower and sunflower oil;
2nd in the world in barley production and 4th in barley exports;
3rd largest producer and 4th largest exporter of corn in the world;
4th largest producer of potatoes in the world;
5th largest rye producer in the world;
5th in the world in bee production (75,000 tons);
8th in the world in wheat exports;
9th in the world in the production of chicken eggs;
16th in the world in cheese exports.
Ukraine can meet the food needs of 600 million people.

Ukraine is an industrialized country:
1st in Europe in ammonia production;
2nd in Europe’s and 4th largest natural gas pipeline system in the world (142.5 billion cubic meters of gas throughput capacity in the EU);
3rd largest in Europe and 8th largest in the world in installed capacity of nuclear power plants;
3rd in Europe and 11th in the world in rail network length (21,700 km);
3rd in the world (after the US and France) in production of locators and locating equipment;
3rd largest iron exporter in the world
4th largest exporter of turbines for nuclear power plants in the world;
4th world’s largest manufacturer of rocket launchers;
4th in the world in clay exports
4th in the world in titanium exports
8th in the world in exports of ores and concentrates;
9th in the world in exports of defence industry products;
10th largest steel producer in the world (32.4 million tons).

(Source: Andriy Futey)

United States to sanction Russian banks

President Joe Biden on Thursday said the United States would sanction major Russian banks and impose export controls on Russia to curtail Russian high-tech imports as part of a coordinated effort with allies to penalize the Kremlin for its military attack against Ukraine. 

However, the latest round of sanctions did not move to kick Russia out of the SWIFT international banking system, despite pleas from Ukraine and some members of Congress.

Biden condemned Russian President Vladimir Putin for ordering the attack against Ukraine and said that his actions would cost Russia dearly’.

“Putin is the aggressor. Putin chose this war, and now he and his country will bear the consequences,” Biden said. 

“Putin will be a pariah on the international stage,” Biden said later. 

Biden said the sanctions would target Russian banks holding a combined US$1 trillion in assets, including Russia’s two largest financial institutions, Sberbank and VTB Bank. He said the US would also impose sanctions on additional Russian elites with links to the Kremlin.

The Treasury Department said in a release that the administration would impose sanctions on VTB and Sberbank, cutting them off from processing payments through the US financial system.

The Biden administration is also imposing sanctions on three other Russian financial institutions: Otkritie, Novikom and Sovcom. 

The sanctions also target 10 Russian individuals, including those close to Putin and elites working in the financial sector, according to the Treasury Department. 

The export controls will restrict Russia’s ability to import sensitive US technology – like semiconductors, lasers, and sensors – and particularly target Russia’s defense, aviation, and maritime sectors, according to a White House fact sheet. Biden said that the restrictions, coupled with actions by European allies, would cut off more than half of Russia’s high-tech imports. 

 “It will be a major hit to Putin’s long-term strategic ambitions,” Biden said.

 “I will not be diplomatic on this. Everyone who now doubts whether Russia should be banned from SWIFT has to understand that the blood of innocent Ukrainian men, women and children will be on their hands too,” Ukraine’s foreign minister, Dmytro Kuleba, tweeted in advance of Biden’s remarks.

Biden cited concerns among some European allies about taking that step but argued the penalties being put in place were severe enough to make a difference. He indicated that kicking Russia out of the system could be a possibility in the future. 

“The sanctions we imposed exceed SWIFT,” Biden said in response to a reporter’s question about excluding the penalty. “The sanctions we imposed exceed anything that’s ever been done. The sanctions we imposed have generated two-thirds of the world joining us. They are profound sanctions. Let’s have a conversation in another month or so to see if they’re working.”

Nor did the sanctions package target the Russian oil or natural gas industries, which are major drivers of the Russian economy. European countries are dependent on Russia for gas.

White House Deputy national Security Adviser Daleep Singh told reporters at a briefing later Thursday that the administration intentionally scoped the sanctions to deliver a severe impact on the Russian economy while minimizing impact on the US and European allies.  

He said the administration would not do anything that causes an unintended disruption in global energy markets, including the flow of gas from Russia to the world.  

The Biden administration also announced plans to impose sanctions on individuals and entities in Belarus, accusing the nation of supporting and facilitating Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Biden made the announcement of new sanctions as the Russian assault on Ukraine was very much underway.

On Putin’s orders, the Russian military attacked Ukraine from multiple directions overnight Wednesday. The Pentagon has warned that the assault is only the first part of a multistage invasion.

“It is likely that you will see this unfold in multiple phases. How many? How long? We don't know. But what we're seeing are initial phases of a large-scale invasion,” a senior defense official told reporters on Thursday, before Biden spoke to the nation.

“They’re making a move on Kyiv,” the official said. 

The Biden administration has been working for weeks to develop a comprehensive sanctions package in the event of a Russian invasion, threatening harsh penalties as a means of deterring Moscow from launching a renewed invasion of Ukraine. 

But the threats, coupled with US and European diplomatic overtures, did not convince Putin to deescalate the situation. 

Biden imposed a first tranche of sanctions after Putin recognized two regions in eastern Ukraine as independent earlier this week.

Biden said Thursday it would take time for Putin to feel the economic pain of the penalties and suggested that it could cause the Russian leader to change course on his military campaign.

“He’s going to begin to see the effect of the sanctions,” Biden said. “It will so weaken his country that he’ll have to make a very, very difficult choice as to whether to continue to move toward being a second-rate power or, in fact, respond."

Biden condemned the assault in a statement late Wednesday, but his comments Thursday were his first extended remarks on the events unfolding in Eastern Europe. 

The announcement of new sanctions mirrored penalties unveiled by British Prime Minister Boris Johnson roughly an hour before Biden’s address. 

The White House has been closely coordinating with allies on the response to Russia’s military buildup and subsequent invasion of Ukraine.

 “Our actions, taken in coordination with partners and allies, will degrade Russia’s ability to project power and threaten the peace and stability of Europe,” Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said in a statement Thursday afternoon.

“We are united in our efforts to hold Russia accountable for its further invasion of Ukraine while mitigating impacts to Americans and our partners.  If necessary, we are prepared to impose further costs on Russia in response to its egregious actions.”

 

Data wiping malware hits Ukraine computers

A newly discovered, destructive piece of software found circulating in Ukraine hit hundreds of computers, according to researchers at the cybersecurity firm Eset. 

That was just a part of what Ukrainian officials said was an intensifying wave of hacks aimed at the country’s tech infrastructure in the lead up to Russia’s invasion on Thursday morning.

In a series of tweets, cybersecurity firm Eset said the data wiping program had been "installed on hundreds of machines in the country". The attack, it said, had likely been in the works for the past couple of months.

Cybersecurity experts are racing to pick apart the malicious program. Researchers found it appeared to have been digitally signed with a certificate issued to an obscure, year-old Cypriot company called Hermetica Digital, which doesn’t appear to have a website.

Because operating systems use code-signing as an initial check on software, such a certificate might have been designed to help the rogue program dodge antivirus protections.

Getting such a certificate under false pretences – or stealing it – isn't impossible, but it's generally the sign of a sophisticated and targeted operator, said Brian Kime, a Vice President at US cybersecurity firm ZeroFox.

Who is responsible for the wiper is unclear, although suspicion immediately fell on Russia, which has repeatedly been accused of launching data-scrambling hacks against Ukraine and other countries. Russia has denied the allegations.

Ukraine has been repeatedly hit by hackers in the past few weeks as Russia massed troops around its borders. Earlier on Wednesday the websites of Ukraine's government, foreign ministry and state security service were down in what the government said was the start of another denial of service (DDoS) attack.

Twitter said it had mistakenly suspended around a dozen accounts that were posting about Russian military movements, and said the action was not due to a coordinated bot campaign or mass reporting of the accounts by other users.

"We've been proactively monitoring for emerging narratives that are violation of our policies, and, in this instance, we took enforcement action on a number of accounts in error," a Twitter spokesperson said in a statement. "We're expeditiously reviewing these actions and have already proactively reinstated access to a number of affected accounts."

Bitcoin slumped to its lowest in a month on Thursday after Russian forces fired missiles at several cities in Ukraine and landed troops on its coast, sparking a sell-off of riskier assets. The world’s most popular cryptocurrency fell by as much as 7.9% to US$34,324, its lowest since January 24 this year. Smaller coins that typically move in tandem with bitcoin also fell, losing as much as 10.8%.

Germany accused of weakening Ukraine

According to a Reuters report, the north German state of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, where former Chancellor Angela Merkel was born, ties to Russia run deep – so deep, in fact, its leaders have defended a Kremlin project that the United States says helped cripple Ukraine.

At issue is a new gas pipeline project, which Germany halted on Tuesday in retaliation for Russia's decision to recognize two breakaway regions in eastern Ukraine, shortly before it invaded and brought Europe to the brink of a major war.

Mecklenburg-Vorpommern is the landfall site for the line, Nord Stream 2, which bypasses the former Soviet Republic. The United States long argued the line would weaken Ukraine; Germany and Russia insisted the project was purely commercial. Nonetheless, in 2019 Washington set sanctions on some companies and individuals who were helping to build it, maintaining the line is a tool for Russia to support aggression against Ukraine.

Last January, the regional premier, Manuela Schwesig, took action to support the Russian project. At her initiative, the state parliament voted to set up a special foundation whose charter said it could acquire, manage, own, provide or let land, tools and machines to help the completion of the pipeline.

"We believe that it is right to build the pipeline," Schwesig told reporters in January 2021. Advocating for the pipeline in the state parliament last January, Schwesig said the US sanctions were self-interested. "Nobody who is working on building the pipeline is doing anything wrong," she said. "The ones doing something wrong are those who are trying to stop the pipeline."

Nord Stream 2 would double the amount of gas Russia can pump directly to Germany, its biggest customer for gas, make Germany and Europe less vulnerable to supply interruptions caused by disputes between Russia and Ukraine, and bring economic benefits to Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, a relatively deprived region that used to be in the German Democratic Republic.

But this year as Russia stepped up pressure on Ukraine, questions mounted around the Foundation, called Klima-und Umweltschutz MV (Climate and Environment Protection Foundation). It would not reveal who was running its sanctions-busting operation beyond saying that the person was appointed by Nord Stream 2 AG, a company owned by Gazprom PAO, which is fully controlled by the Russian state.

The state auditor, the Court of Auditors, told Reuters on February 09, 2022 it was concerned that Mecklenburg-Vorpommern had largely given up control over the Foundation's assets. This meant there was no guarantee that the Foundation would always work in the public interest, said Sebastian Jahn, the court's spokesman, in a telephone interview.

The Foundation said on Wednesday it would stop helping the pipeline project, but declined to say exactly what it had done to aid it so far. In an account of its first year on its website, it said that to complete the pipeline, "the illegal threats of United States had to be countered with a wide range of measures, which for obvious reasons cannot be made the subject of public explanation."

Public records show it purchased a ship which entered the Baltic last July and which a US State Department report to Congress last November said had engaged in pipe-laying activities, on Nord Stream 2 or another sanctioned project.

"We did what is necessary, the pipeline is practically completed," Foundation Chairman Erwin Sellering told German broadcaster NDR on Wednesday, adding that this involved helping small and medium-sized companies do their work. "We can say we fulfilled our mandate," he added.

As Russia continues to pressure Ukraine, other questions are mounting about the links between the pipeline, Germany's ruling Social Democrat Party (SPD), and Moscow. The regional premier Schwesig is, like Chancellor Olaf Scholz, a member of the SPD, which traditionally advocates rapprochement with Russia.

Gerhard Schroeder, a former Chancellor who has described himself as Putin's personal friend. One of his last acts in office in 2005 was to sign the deal creating the Nord Stream 2 project. Soon after, he became chairman of the company behind it – the first of several directorial positions he has taken at Russian energy companies.

In 2019, Scholz rejected the US sanctions as interference in Germany's affairs. On Tuesday, after Russia formally recognized the two breakaway regions, he decided to halt certification of the pipeline. But some analysts say the damage to Germany is already done.

"Russia has succeeded in using the personal interests of prominent German political figures against Germany," said Marcel Dirsus, Non-Resident Fellow at the Institute for Security Policy at Kiel University.

"All this is doubly dangerous for Germany: It allows an adversarial foreign power to influence decision-making and it raises questions about Germany's reliability among the country's allies."