Crisis in Belarus and role being played by Russia, European Union and United States

After the presidential election in Belarus on August 9, 2020, mass demonstrations broke out spontaneously throughout the country. Hundreds of thousands of people took to the streets protesting against widespread election fraud. 

These protests soon met with sustained, brutal suppression. The masses were eventually driven from the streets, yet the resistance against the Belarusian dictatorship persists to this day.

It is clear that Alyaksandr Lukashenka lost the popular legitimacy he had enjoyed for many, if not most, of the last 26 years. Why did this Belarusian revolution fail to succeed? The responses of Russia, the European Union, and the United States to the 2020–21 protest movement had a decisive impact on the pro-democracy uprising in Belarus and will continue to be crucial for how the situation in Belarus unfolds in the future.

The 2020–21 Belarusian protest movement to date can be divided into three main phases: violent repressions; temporary cease-fire; and regime retaliation. The next phase of the Belarusian crisis will be one of power transition. This transition will likely happen after the constitutional referendum scheduled for February 27, 2022. The current draft of the new Belarusian constitution proposes several crucial changes for the political system in Belarus.

First, the amendments aim to weaken the powers of the Belarusian parliament and to strengthen the role of the All-Belarusian People's Assembly (ABPA). This body which under the present constitution does not have governing status would be endowed with wide-ranging powers and would consist of 1,200 delegates loyal to the regime. The ABPA would have the power to approve Belarus’s foreign and security policy, propose changes to the constitution, draft laws, select judges of the top courts, and have other functions. The acting president would automatically become a member of the ABPA and potentially serve as its chair, if elected by the other delegates. By strengthening the powers of the ABPA, Lukashenka is trying to create an alternative center of power which would allow him to stay in the Belarusian political arena even if he decides to step down as a president.

Second, the constitutional amendments envisage the president’s immunity from prosecution and prohibit anyone who temporarily left the country in the last 20 years from running for presidency. This provision directly targets members of Belarusian political opposition who were forced to live into exile to avoid repressions. This amendment deprives the Belarusian opposition of the opportunity to challenge the ruling regime directly inside Belarus, and provides additional guarantees for the safety of Lukashenka and his entourage. 

Finally, the new constitutional provisions also grant the president immunity from prosecution and introduce a limit of two five-year presidential terms in office. However, since these restrictions would only apply going forward, Lukashenka could potentially stay in power until 2035.

Lukashenka has not yet declared whether he will step down after the referendum. The current political instability in the region, including the January protests in Kazakhstan and the escalating tensions between Russian and Ukraine, increase the chances that Lukashenka will stay in power after the referendum.

In either case, the West will not cease pressure on the Belarusian regime and will continue to support those fighting for democratic reforms there. For its part, Russia will continue to use the vulnerability of Lukashenka and his close entourage to increase its political, economic, and military presence in Belarus.

Russia, the EU and the US have all played an important role in the evolution of the 2020–21 Belarusian post-electoral crises. The Belarusian mass protests failed to succeed in August 2020, thanks both to Russia’s significant support of the Lukashenka regime and a lack of quick and comprehensive response from the EU and the US.

However, the Ryanair incident in May 2021 catalyzed increased Western action against the Lukashenka regime. It resulted in greater coordination between the EU and the US and led to the passage of several packages of targeted sanctions. Hard sanctions are likely to continue to serve as the baseline policy towards the Lukashenka regime in the near future for the EU and the US, while Russia will likely continue exerting its influence in pursuit of greater political, economic, and military integration with Belarus.  Lukashenka’s regime has a potential to maintain political control in the country in the short-term perspective. However, in the long run it will have to face the irreversible transformations happening in the Belarusian society and step on a path of political transition.

US confronts a pair of ruthless dictatorships

I am inclined to share with my readers an article by Newt Gingrich, warning that the United States is confronting a pair of ruthless dictatorships in two potential collisions that could change history and leave the super power at enormous risk.

The news media focus is currently on Vladimir Putin and his threat to occupy part or all of Ukraine. Everyone recognizes that President Joe Biden made a dangerous mistake in his two-hour press conference when he said “a minor incursion” by Russia into Ukraine might be acceptable. His administration was trying to reverse that comment as soon as the press conference ended and spent the next two days trying to reassure everyone—including our allies—that Biden did not mean what he clearly said.

Of course, the Biden threat that there would be “severe sanctions” if Russia invaded Ukraine probably has no effect on Putin. First, when he seized all of Crimea the Obama-Biden administration threatened severe sanctions and nothing seemed to hurt Russia much. Second, at a time when Biden’s war on American energy has raised the price of oil and forced him to beg Russia and Saudi Arabia increase production to lower the price, Putin must be reveling in the absurdity of Biden’s words versus Biden’s actions.

Oil is the biggest source of foreign income for Russia. Every US$/barrel increase is a windfall Putin can spend on the Russian military and foreign adventures. In October 2020, with President Donald Trump’s energy independence policy, the price of crude was US$39.90/barrel. Today, with Biden’s anti-American energy policy, the price of crude has jumped to US$85.43/barrel.

Despite Biden’s strong words about sanctions, the effect of his policies has been a US$45.53/barrel increase in profit (114.11%) for Putin to pay off his oligarchs, buy better military equipment, and engage in foreign adventures. Any supposed sanctions Biden imposed would have to overcome this windfall—and then go much deeper—for Putin to even feel it.

Far from being intimidated, the Russians have announced that they will be holding military maneuvers off Ireland. That country has complained and said they don’t want Russian warships in their neighborhood. Since Ireland is not a member of NATO, and its own forces are totally inadequate for dealing with Russia, NATO would have to get involved if there was a serious incident.

While Putin is keeping everyone focused on Ukraine, Xi Jinping is busy putting pressure on Taiwan. Last Sunday, the Chinese Communists flew 39 aircraft—including a nuclear bomber—near Taiwan.

The simple fact is Putin and Xi sense real weakness in the American commander in chief. They sense that American confusion and weakness is an enormous opportunity.

While Biden has a difficult time communicating with his allies—and has had no impact on Germany which is now choosing Russian natural gas over NATO—Putin and Xi are talking regularly and coordinating activities.

The American system was built for a strong commander in chief. Gen. George Washington spent eight years fighting the British to establish independence of United States. When he became President of the Constitutional Convention, his influence was decisive. Washington knew from his own experience that American survival in a dangerous world required a commander in chief—not a legislator in chief, not a speechmaker in chief, not a cheerful conciliator in chief. The American presidency only works with a strong, competent, commander in chief. Currently United States does not have one. Biden is incapable of filling Washington’s shoes.

He has referred to a movie, “Munich: The Edge of War.” It is a clever treatment of the Munich meeting between Adolf Hitler and British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain in which Chamberlain gave away Czechoslovakia in order to buy what he called “peace for the time.”

Before Munich, in a radio broadcast to the British people, Chamberlain had described the German-Czechoslovakian crisis as “a quarrel in a far away country between people of whom we know nothing.”

On learning that Chamberlain had sold out the free country of Czechoslovakia—leaving it defenseless against the German dictatorship—Winston Churchill warned: “You were given the choice between war and dishonour. You chose dishonour and you will have war.”

He draws the conclusion, “Weakness when facing dictators is always dangerous. The situations in Ukraine and Taiwan are both dangerous. The US commander in chief appears incapable of meeting the dual challenge”.

 

OPEC plus likely to stick to planned March output increase

OPEC plus is likely to stick with a planned increase in its oil output target for March 2022 when it meets on Wednesday next week. Several sources from the producer group said, as it sees demand recovering despite downside risks from the pandemic and looming interest rate rises.

While two OPEC plus sources said oil at a seven-year high close to US$90 a barrel might prompt the group to consider further steps, the vast majority of sources said no new decision was expected at the February 02, 2022 online meeting.

One Russian source told Reuters the country was concerned the price rally might revive a boom in US shale production.

"OPEC plus countries should be on high alert with this price level given the bullish forecasts for shale oil production in 2022," the source said.

The source added that high oil prices were also hurting profit margins of Russian refineries.

OPEC plus, which groups the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), Russia and other allies, has raised its output target each month since August by 400,000 barrels per day (bpd) as it unwinds record production cuts made in 2020.

Current plans would see OPEC plus do so again in March.

"We are very likely to go for another 400,000 barrels per day," one of the OPEC+ sources said. "There are no reasons against it."

OPEC plus has resisted pressure from the United States since last year to raise supplies more quickly.

Despite its increased targets, actual output from OPEC plus has not kept pace as some members struggle with capacity constraints, and this has been a factor underpinning prices.

OPEC plus missed its production target by 790,000 bpd in December 2021 as members such as Nigeria and Angola struggled to raise output, the International Energy Agency said.

Several banks and analysts including Morgan Stanley and JP Morgan, expect oil prices to top US$100/barrel later in the year 2022 amid tight OPEC plus spare capacity and strong demand.

Some OPEC plus sources believe that the recent price rally is driven more by geopolitical tensions than fundamentals.

"With Russian-Ukrainian tension one could expect that, but [it is] not a supply issue for sure," one of the sources said about prospects for US$100 oil.

US succeeds in selling Bradley fighting vehicles to Croatia

According to a report, Croatia will buy 89 US Bradley fighting vehicles as part of a plan to form an infantry brigade to aid NATO, Prime Minister Andrej Plenkovic announced Wednesday. 

Croatia will receive 62 fully equipped and armed versions of the armored vehicles plus another 22 for reserve parts and five for training in a US$196 million deal, Plenkovic announced on Twitter. 

As part of the agreement, Croatia will pay slightly more than US$145 million while the United States will cover US$51 million. 

“This is a confirmation of good cooperation and I believe that in this way, we have added another piece to the mosaic of our cooperation,” Plenkovic told reporters, according to The Associated Press. “The Croatian army will achieve a new level of quality.” 

Croatia, which has been negotiating the vehicle deal since 2017, currently uses Bradley models from as far back as Operation Desert Storm in the early 1990s and wants to upgrade the machine guns, missiles, radios and armor, among other parts.  

Plenkovic said the new vehicles will begin arriving in 2023. 

A member of NATO, Croatia looks to bolster its military equipment to keep up with its neighbor and Russian ally Serbia. The country also must contend with an increasingly aggressive Kremlin, though its president said Tuesday that it would not be sending troops if tensions between Russia and Ukraine continue to escalate. 

 

Netherlands cancels €2.2 million contract with Palestinian NGO

Reportedly, the Netherlands has canceled a €2.2 million contract with the Union of Agricultural Work Committees (UAWC) over ties to the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine, according to a report by NGO Monitor.

The Netherlands announced that it would cancel its contract with the Palestinian NGO on January 5, 2022 amid an internal review that revealed 34 officials and board members who worked at UAWC in 2007-2020 had ties to the PFLP – some of whom held leadership positions and were responsible for vicious terror attacks, such as the 2019 murder of 17-year-old Rina Shnerb.

NGO Monitor, itself a non-governmental organization that analyzes International NGO's reception and potential bias toward Israel, originally alerted the Dutch government about the affiliation of many UAWC employees and board members to the PFLP in 2018 and have remained in communication since.

As a result of the investigation and subsequent cancellation of the contract's funding, NGO Watch estimates that the Netherlands government has cut €2.2 million worth of support to the UAWC.

Following the announcement, NGO Monitor sent letters to the governments of Switzerland, Italy, Spain, France, Germany, Belgium, Norway, Denmark, Sweden and the European Union urging them to also freeze all ongoing or future funding to UAWC and other PFLP-linked NGO's.

 

Ukrainians prepare for war with Russia as military aid arrives

Ukraine is getting ready for war after the United States sent a plane carrying military equipment and munitions to the capital, Kyiv. The third shipment of a US$200 million security package is intended to help Ukraine amid the looming threat of a Russian military incursion.

“Our partners are increasing the amount of military assistance, and today we are meeting the third aircraft from the United States government as part of this assistance,” Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov told reporters before the plane landed.

Ukraine Deputy Prime Minister Olha Stefanishyna said the country was more organized today than in 2014, the last time Russia invaded it.

“We didn’t have the army then as it is now,” she said. “We didn’t know what Russian aggression looked like. We were thinking that a full-fledged war would take place in our territory, so we were preparing for the massive protection of our territorial integrity without the resources for it.”

After eight years of Ukraine fighting “Russian aggression,” the country had “military resilience as well as a resilience to hybrid threats,” Stefanishyna said.

Ukraine would be ready for all scenarios, she said, adding that the two main scenarios were a military invasion or a continued escalation without an invasion, which would be damaging to the Ukrainian economy, she said.

Ukraine would need “a package of economic assistance” to be part of the talks that took place between US President Joe Biden, French President Emmanuel Macron and other European leaders on Tuesday, Stefanishyna said.

In addition to the US plane, the UK last week supplied 2,000 short-range, anti-tank missiles and sent British specialists to provide training. It has also provided Saxon armored personnel carriers. Estonia is sending Javelin anti-armor missiles, and Latvia and Lithuania are providing Stinger missiles.

Turkey has sold Ukraine several batches of Bayraktar TB2 drones that it deployed against Russian-backed separatists in the eastern Donbass region, infuriating Moscow. The Czech Republic last week said it planned to donate a shipment of 152-mm. artillery ammunition.

The improvements to Ukraine’s defenses have given regular citizens a sense of security and confidence.

“When I heard news of the US withdrawing its diplomats from Ukraine, I was a little nervous,” said Roma, who expressed slight nervousness only because his father serves in the Ukrainian Army. “But I believe it will be fine.”

“I think the conflict is a provocation for Ukraine and a political show to make the Ukrainians panic,” he said. “That’s why I don’t read the news. When you just live your life, you’re normal. But when you see (in the news) that there will be a war tomorrow, and you need to stock up, it’s all you think about.”

Lena said she was under stress because her boyfriend and some of her friends live in Russia, meaning they have not been able to see each other recently.

“If we want to see each other, we need to fly to Turkey or Cyprus,” she said.

Lena said she was not concerned about a war breaking out.

“I feel good, and my friends feel good,” she said. “I have a friend who works in a military department, and he tells me that everything is okay.”

Dimitri said he was not sure if there would be a war because it would be expensive for both Ukraine and Russia. He still thinks there is a possibility because “there is one crazy man who is a dictator in Russia, and who knows this crazy man? Maybe he only wants war.”

Dimitri said he was certain that if there is a war, he will be fighting for his country.

“I think like Israelis,” he said. “If there is war, I’ll fight, and if there is no war, then I will move on.”

The Ukrainian government said the Israeli perspective could be of use because of the way it deals with conflicts.

“We have made sure we have good cooperation with the Israeli government in terms of their experience and best practices when it comes to the hybrid attacks and military development of the military service,” Stefanishyna said. “The dynamics are very positive.”

Dimitri’s patriotism reflects a level seen now among Ukrainians that was not as prevalent during the 2014 Russo-Ukrainian war.

“We are definitely more patriotic now,” Sergei said.

“I believe in Ukrainians,” Roma said. “I believe in our army and that our politicians can stabilize the situation.”

Mia said she felt strongly about her Ukrainian nationality and would not be okay with Ukraine becoming a part of Russia. She said she argues every week with her grandfather, who lives in Russia.

“He always tells me that Russia would be best for the Ukrainian people,” she added.

The best assistance Ukraine’s allies could give would be “political pressure on Russia and military support,” Stefanishyna said.

 

ReconAfrica: An emerging energy giant from Canada

ReconAfrica is a Canadian oil and gas company engaged in the opening of the newly discovered deep Kavango Sedimentary Basin, in the Kalahari Desert of northeastern Namibia and northwestern Botswana. The Company holds petroleum licenses comprising approximately 8.5 million contiguous acres.

Operations

Processing of the first 450 kms of 2D seismic data acquired in the Kavango Basin was recently completed with excellent results. The initial interpretation is near complete and has delineated a diverse group of high-quality prospects for the upcoming three to six well drilling program.

Relevant to the current list of seismically defined prospects, a second 2D seismic acquisition program comprising approximately 500 kms has been designed. As a result, a corresponding update to the seismic Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) has been submitted to the Ministry of Environment, Forestry and Tourism for approval. Subject to the appropriate approvals, the second 2D seismic program is scheduled to commence by the end of February 2022. A more detailed drilling schedule for H1 2022 will be provided as soon as all permits are approved by the Namibian government.

Environment, Social and Governance

As part of the previously announced comprehensive ESG program dedicated to the Kavango East and Kavango West regions, the Company is supporting the Namibian Ministry of Health and Social Service's COVID-19 response by donating N$15 million (CDN$1.27 million) for a proactive roll-out vaccination campaign for the hard-to-reach, remote villages, and settlements in Kavango East and Kavango West. In the first month, the campaign has recorded over 8,000 initial vaccinations, over 1,200 second doses and 100 boosters. 52 of the 81 planned villages have been covered to date. ReconAfrica is also assisting with oxygen provision and mortuary services support.

ReconAfrica conducts ongoing engagement programs, led by its Community Liaison Officers and Community Engagement teams, to ensure a steady flow of communication, in local languages, with impacted and interested stakeholders, Traditional Authorities, Conservancies, Communities and other interest groups. Specifically, the Company has conducted more than 300 community engagement sessions related to the drilling and 2D seismic programs to share information and track stakeholder feedback. 

Board of Directors

The Company is pleased to announce the appointment of Craig Steinke as a director and executive Chairman of the Board. Steinke, the founder of ReconAfrica, has played a pivotal role since inception in the development of ReconAfrica through his private energy consulting practice. Steinke has over 25 years of experience in identifying, successfully developing and financing oil and natural gas exploration and production projects in North America, Latin America, Europe and Asia. Additionally, through his privately held company, Steinke plays an active role leading a diversified team, in generating new sources and technologies for sustainable energy.

Leaving the board of directors is Jay Park, one of the Company's early stage and significant shareholders, has served the Company and its predecessor Reconnaissance Oil as its Chief Executive Officer from May 2018 to August 2020, and then as the Company's executive Chairman. Park will continue to take the leading role in advising ReconAfrica on all oil and gas legal matters through Park Energy Law where he is Managing Partner.

Joining the Board of the Company is Dr. Joseph R. Davis. Dr. Davis has 40 years of experience as an oil and gas geologist focused on reserve estimation and understanding exploration risk. Dating back to 2013, Dr. Davis led the technical team in the original discovery of the Kavango basin. In 2015 Dr. Davis was a founding partner of a private US based natural gas company, focused on sustainable natural gas production, achieving natural gas production of over 800mmcf/day. Dr. Davis has a PhD in Geology from the University of Texas and serves as Secretary of the Trustee Associates of the American Association of Petroleum Geologists (AAPG) Foundation. He also serves on the AAPG's Sustainable Development Committee, which provides industry leadership in technology and training for meeting United Nations sustainable development goals, including reducing greenhouse gas emissions, protecting ground and surface water supplies, and defining the reservoirs necessary for carbon storage and sequestration. 

Retiring from the board of directors but retaining an active role with the company as Geoscience advisor is Dr. James Granath, who has served as a director of the Company from August 2019. Dr. Granath's new role focuses on the structural geology aspects of exploring and developing the Kavango Basin. The Company thanks Dr. Granath for his major contribution to the Board of ReconAfrica and is pleased that he will be providing continued technical deliverables for the exploration and development of the Kavango basin.