Israeli Defense Minister presents Iran attack timeline to US officials

Israeli Defense Minister Benny Gantz updated the US officials that he has set a deadline for when the IDF will need to complete preparations for an attack against Iran.

The Americans did not voice opposition to the Israeli preparations when presented with the date by Gantz on Thursday, a senior diplomatic source said the following day.

The IDF has intensified planning for an attack against its arch enemy. Last week, American sources revealed that Austin and Gantz were expected to discuss joint military preparations and a report on Kan said that the IDF was planning a massive mock strike aerial drill for this summer.

Gantz met with Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Thursday. The conversations focused mainly on Iran and its continued pursuit of nuclear capability, but some of the US officials also brought up Israeli settlement activity and their concern that building in the West Bank will block a future two-state solution.

Jerusalem consulted with Washington on two previous strikes on Iran, one in June against a facility producing centrifuges in Karaj, and another on a missile production site outside Tehran, The New York Times reported.

US President Joe Biden asked his National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan two months ago to review plans to attack Iran if diplomatic efforts fail, as well as the possibilities for increasing sanctions.

That leak comes as the US and Israel are increasingly at odds in their evaluation of the Iranian threat. Israeli officials continue to be deeply concerned that in the recently resumed negotiations in Vienna, Washington will seek an interim deal lifting sanctions on Tehran while insufficiently restricting its nuclear program.

According to the State Department, Blinken spoke with Foreign Minister Yair Lapid on Friday. They discussed topics “including the enduring importance of the US-Israel bilateral relationship, Israeli-Palestinian issues, and regional developments, such as our shared conviction that Iran must not be allowed to acquire a nuclear weapon.”

According to the Foreign Ministry, Lapid told Blinken, “Even if there is a return to negotiations, sanctions on Iran must not be lifted. The money the Iranians will receive will reach our doorstep in the form of terrorism and missiles.”

The conversation was “warm, productive and open,” Israel’s MFA said in a readout, and included topics such as “joint efforts to stop Iran from becoming a nuclear threshold state, Minister Lapid’s visit to Cairo, the arrival of new US Ambassador to Israel Tom Nides, and expanding the circle of peace.”

State Department Spokesperson Ned Price commented on Thursday on US-Israel discussions of alternative ways to counter the Iranian nuclear threat if negotiations in Vienna collapse.

“I wouldn’t want to speak to what we might be contemplating if the path to diplomacy toward a mutual return to compliance isn’t viable in the near term,” Price said. “But we are discussing those alternatives. We are discussing those options with our close partners, with our close allies, and that includes with the Israelis. We have already had good discussions with the Israelis about the path forward, and how we can work together to ensure that Iran is never able to acquire a nuclear weapon.”

Gantz addressed the Israel American Council summit in Miami on Friday, saying that Iran is a great threat to Israel but first and foremost to the world.

“This is why the international community, with US leadership, must stand together and act forcefully against Iran’s hegemonic aspirations and nuclear program and restore stability for the sake of global peace,” he said.

The consultations in Washington were “excellent,” the defense minister said, and they included ways to ensure Israel’s qualitative military edge in the Middle East.

Gantz said he spoke with the Americans about how to keep the pressure on Iran with the aim of keeping them away from a nuclear capability, and to take advantage of Iranian vulnerabilities – particularly economic – that could be used to persuade them to suspend nuclear activity.

His impression from the meetings in Washington was that the fate of the negotiations in Vienna would be determined in the near future. “I think that in the coming weeks we will know where we stand,” Gantz said.

Iran capable of exchanging electricity with six neighbors

According to an IRNA report quoting Iranian Energy Minister Ali-Akbar Mehrabian reported the country is currently able to exchange electricity with Afghanistan, Iraq, Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, Armenia and Turkey.

As reported, developing energy diplomacy and exchange of electricity with the neighboring countries has been among the top priorities of the energy minister. Mehrabian has underlined the synchronization of the country’s electricity network with that of Russia as well as joining the power grid with the Persian Gulf Arab nations among the plans during his tenure.

Speaking in a gathering with the representatives of the Foreign Affairs Ministry on Saturday, Mehrabian said Iran has great potential for exporting electricity and power equipment to the countries in the region and the energy ministry has had good success in this area over the years.

Referring to the country's ability to produce F-class turbines, Mehrabian said, “The Islamic Republic of Iran is one of the few countries in the world that produces electrical equipment, turbines, generators etc. at the highest level of technology. Iran is capable of producing a variety of turbines, especially class F turbines, which have the highest efficiency in the power plant industry.”

According to the energy minister, significant power projects, especially hydropower plants, have been implemented in Iraq, Syria, Sri Lanka, Tajikistan, Russia and other countries.

“Iran has a very good position in the world in the field of water projects, including water systems, dams, and hydropower plants,” Mehrabian said.

According to Mehrabian, currently, 100% of the country’s urban population has access to the electricity network, while 99.5% of the rural population is also connected to the national power grid.

“Over the past few years, investment in this sector has declined and the supply and demand balance became negative, which resulted in some restrictions and blackouts, but with a precise plan to compensate we are solving problems,” said Mehrabian.

The official noted that the energy ministry is planning to add 30,000 megawatts to the country’s electricity generation capacity over the next four years.

He stated that one of the energy ministry’s concerns is to pass the next summer’s peak consumption period. He said, “We must be able to work in such a way that people see fewer restrictions and if we can use hydropower plants to some extent, hopefully, we will not experience blackouts.”

Mehrabian further noted that currently 6,000 megawatts capacity of power plants are under different phases and will come on stream by the next summer peak consumption period

“For the summer peak of 1401 (the next Iranian calendar year) it is planned to add 6,000 MW to the country's electricity generation capacity, which will be a record,” he said.

Of the mentioned capacity, so far four power plant units have joined the country’s power network and the rest will be constructed by the mentioned date.

Is China getting ahead of United States in weapons technology?

The stunned silence that descended on Washington after the Financial Times recently reported that China had successfully tested a nuclear-capable hypersonic glider shows how dangerously inept the US policy establishment has become at preempting China's technological breakthroughs.

Predictions about China overtaking the United States often use existing technological processes as their yardstick. Yet, they overlook another increasingly likely scenario that China has successfully applied entirely new substance materials to these technologies, bringing unprecedented breakthroughs in performance.

Beijing is currently experimenting with radically different substances in three key strategic domains -- nuclear weapons, semiconductors and energy.

Breakthroughs here will break American dominance and radically alter the power balance between the two superpowers. The US must both check its blind spots for more incoming "Sputnik moments” from China and engage in more disruptive research of its own if it is to stay ahead.

Somewhere in the Gobi desert, the world's first new thorium-powered nuclear reactor in over half a century is starting up. The uranium-233 isotope it aims to produce could take China's rapidly expanding nuclear arsenal to a whole new level.

China is building on Cold War-era research by the Manhattan Project team at Oak Ridge National Laboratory in Tennessee in the U.S. Though the U.S. later abandoned uranium-233 in favor of the naturally occurring uranium-235, declassified documents from 1966 show researchers at the time judged uranium-233 to have superior functions to other materials, but only if kept chemically pure.

Thanks to the co-presence of the element protactinium in the uranium-233 they generate, thorium reactors were believed to be "proliferation resistant" for many years. Yet, a variety of reprocessing methods that separate the protactinium isotopes from the rest of the nuclear fuel have been developed in recent decades, clearing a pathway for its use as a high-performance weapons-grade material.

Uranium-233 emits stronger radiation than other isotopes, producing 15% more neutrons per thermal fission than either uranium-235 or plutonium-239. It also has a lower critical mass, meaning more weapons can be made from less material.

This could enable Beijing to not just scale up the number of weapons in its arsenal but potentially increase each missile's destructive power, and, having the second-largest reserves of thorium in the world, the surplus of nuclear energy could drive China's conventional platforms, including nuclear-powered warships and drones.

Advances in silicon chips will reach their physical limits by 2025, as dictated by Moore's Law. This seems like a bad thing for China, which still trails semiconductor leaders Taiwan, South Korea and the US by two wafer generations.

Yet China is gearing up for what its leaders call the post Moore's Law-era -- the dawn of carbon-based chips. A recent paper published in the journal Science by Peking University researchers claimed that they had tested carbon nanotubes up to three times faster and four times more energy-efficient than silicon chips. Beijing has allocated a high priority to this field of research. It is now part of the scientific innovation strategy for China's fourth five year plan.

Revolutionizing chip material could also bust through China's biggest bottleneck further downstream – chip making itself. Due to US export sanctions, China lacks the lithography machines to make cutting-edge chips. Yet, a state-directed 02 Special Project to develop an integrated domestic lithography machine supply chain is making progress.

If these machines are designed to manufacture carbon-based chips, such dual innovations could create the technological foundation for a whole new foundry ecosystem that would all belong to China. Its chipmakers could leapfrog incumbents and China would dominate the strategic information and communications technology hardware of the future.

Though currently the world's biggest energy importer, China is positioned to become the largest energy exporter if it can pull off its moonshot project to mine Helium-3 on the moon.

Already, over a dozen Chinese institutes are working to extract Helium-3 from moon rock samples from last year's Chang'e 5 mission. The isotope holds more energy than Earth-based minerals with just 40 tons capable of powering the entire US for a whole year. It is estimated there are at least a million tons of Helium-3 on the moon.

Though, one US company is planning a mining expedition to the moon in the early 2030s, China is already streaming ahead with a permanent mega-base on the moon to be built by around the same time. The US Central Intelligence Agency space analysts warn that breakthrough dominance in this powerful and carbon clean resource would make China the 21st century's energy powerhouse.

If China achieves dominance in any of these three domains, it will likely displace the US as a global hegemon. There are two key ways the US can work to prevent this.

Firstly, the US intelligence agencies must better track China's disruptive research, map out potential pathways for leapfrog maneuvers and take action to preempt and prevent technological breakthroughs.

Secondly, the US must take advantage of the lead it currently has and take on unconventional experiments that are yet another step beyond what China itself is doing.

Voices on Capitol Hill calling for the US government to utilize its leftover uranium-233 reserves show that some lawmakers are taking notice. Yet, it is not nearly enough. Drawing on innovations from yesteryear may buy Washington some time, but if delayed rear-guard actions are all it can muster to counter Beijing's multipronged leapfrog, the result of this great power competition is a foregone conclusion.

Israel mounts pressure on United States not to join JOCPA

US Defense Secretary, Lloyd Austin met with his Israeli counterpart on Thursday to discuss concerns over Iran and ways to prevent the country from obtaining a nuclear weapon, the Pentagon confirmed. 

During the meeting at the Pentagon with Israeli Defense Minister Benjamin Gantz, Austin “confirmed US resolve to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon,” the Defense Department (DOD) said in a statement.

Austin and Gantz also “discussed shared concerns regarding Iran’s nuclear provocations, support for terrorism, and missile program” and “reiterated US commitment to Israel’s security and qualitative military edge,” according to the statement.

While the DOD confirmed the meeting, a spokesman declined to address a Reuters report that said the two defense leaders would also touch on possible Iran-focused military exercises.

“I know there’s interest in a certain Reuters report,” Pentagon press secretary John Kirby told reporters on Thursday prior to the meeting. 

“I will tell you this, we routinely conduct exercises and training with our Israeli counterparts and I have nothing to announce to or speak to or point to or speculate about today.”

Kirby would only say that Austin and Gantz would discuss Iran and its continued destabilizing activities.

Gantz had tweeted Wednesday to say he and Austin would “discuss possible modes of action to ensure the cessation of Iran's attempt to enter the nuclear sphere and broaden its activity in the region.”

Reuters reported that the two defense chiefs were expected to talk about possible military exercises meant to prepare for a worst-case scenario to destroy Iran's nuclear facilities should the United States and Iran not be able to revive a 2015 nuclear deal abandoned by then-President Trump.

 A senior US official told Reuters that on October 25 Pentagon leaders briefed White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan on military options available to prevent Iran from producing a nuclear weapon.

The two meetings come as indirect talks on restarting a nuclear deal with Tehran have hit a snag, with very little progress being made during negotiations in Vienna.

Iran has already restarted production of enriching uranium, amassing a small stockpile of the material of at least 60% purity. Uranium needs to be enriched to 90% purity for nuclear weapons development.

Further signaling that the Biden administration is preparing for possible fallout, the US is considering sending a delegation to the United Arab Emirates, a close trading partner of Iran, to discuss possible economic sanctions, The Wall Street Journal reported Thursday.

Iran, meanwhile, has denied it is seeking to develop nuclear weapons and only wants to master the technology.

Nuclear negotiations were expected to resume on Thursday, and the US special envoy for Iran, Robert Malley, is set to join them over the weekend.

 

US Department of Justice announces forfeiture of Iranian missiles and oil

The US Department of Justice (DoJ) confirmed in an announcement on Wednesday that it has successfully forfeited approximately 1.1 million barrels of oil and hundreds of missiles seized by the US Navy from several Iranian vessels in the Arabian Sea late in 2019 and early 2020. 

These represent the largest-ever US forfeitures of Iranian fuel and weapons. Forfeiture of property – penalizing the owner for wrongdoing – allows the US government to take possession of and sell it.

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, which is alleged to have orchestrated the shipments, is designated as a foreign terrorist organization by the DoJ, which allowed for the seizures and forfeitures. 

“The actions of the United States in these two cases strike a resounding blow to the Government of Iran and to the criminal networks supporting Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps,” said Assistant Attorney-General Matthew G. Olsen of the Justice Department’s National Security Division. “The Department of Justice will continue to use all available tools to combat the threats posed by terrorist organizations and all those who seek to harm the United States and its allies.”

The two weapons caches of eight surface-to-air missiles, 171 anti-tank missiles and thermal optics – as well as components for naval surface-to-surface cruise missiles, anti-ship cruise missiles, drones, and other missiles – were alleged by the DoJ to have belonged to the IRGC and were destined for Houthi militants in Yemen. The two flagless vessels, dhow sailboats, were raided on November 25, 2019, and February 9, 2020.

The DOJ announcement contains contradictions about the number of different types of missiles seized, in the opening sentence of the press release listing 171 surface-to-air missiles and eight anti-tank missiles.

“The illegal transfer of Iranian-made weapons poses a significant and immediate threat to our national security,” according to Kelly P. Mayo, Director of the Defense Department's Defense Criminal Investigative Service. “The judgment announced today is an important step in our efforts to identify, disrupt and bring to justice those who imperil resources vital to our safety.”

Around July 2020, petroleum seizures of approximately 1.1 million barrels of petroleum products from four foreign-flagged vessels were also conducted in the vicinity of the Arabian Sea. The shipments were allegedly destined for Venezuela aboard the Liberia-flagged Bella, Bering, Pandi and Luna.

The US government sold the confiscated petroleum products for over US$26 million, with part of the sales being directed to the US Victims of State Sponsored Terrorism Fund, which compensates the US citizens who have been victims of international terrorism.

“These two cases demonstrate that not only can we disrupt the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ ability to finance its operations through petroleum sales, but we can also thwart its ability to use the proceeds of such sales to arm its terrorist proxies and export terrorism abroad,” said US Attorney Matthew M. Graves for the District of Columbia.

“Given our expertise and special statutory authority, the US Attorney’s Office for the District of Columbia is uniquely positioned to support its law enforcement partners in such terrorism cases," he said. "We are deeply committed to this mission.”

The surface-to-air missiles were Iranian-made Type 358, which according to Jane's were previously unknown until these seizures. According to court documents filed in August, all 171 anti-tank missiles were the Iranian-made Dehlaviehs. According to the Islamic Republic News Agency, they were indigenously produced and first introduced into service in the Iranian Army in 2015. The Ten Rayan Roshd Afzar RU60G thermal weapons optics is also Iranian-produced. 

The US has imposed sanctions on oil exports of both Iran and Venezuela. Tehran has made several attempts to transfer oil to the country in South America's northern region. US sanctions on Iran are a key element of the negotiations for the Iranian nuclear deal that the Biden administration is attempting to reimplement.

 

Bangladesh oceangoing ships now at record high

According to a report by The Daily Star, Bangladesh now has a fleet of 80 oceangoing vessels, a record high since the country’s independence. 

Till October 2019, there were only 43 Bangladeshi flagged oceangoing vessels and it almost doubled in the last two years at a time when most business sectors were badly hit by the pandemic.

Some policy support from the government as well as a global price fall of second-hand ships in the early stages of the pandemic encouraged local entrepreneurs to make investments and seize the opportunity.

Several leading industrialists and commodity importers went on to buy their own ships to reduce transport costs. A total of 37 vessels got permanent or provisional registration in the last two years till November this year which is the highest in the span of such periods, according to Mercantile Marine Department (MMD).

In 2020, a total of 14 vessels got permanent registration whereas a total of 18 vessels got permanent and provisional registration till date this year, according to data from the MMD.

The National Board of Revenue (NBR) has eased age rules for ships to make it easy to qualify for VAT exemptions during imports and also cut advance income tax. The NBR brought down the advance income tax (AIT) on vessel imports to one percent for fiscal 2021-22 from 2 percent in fiscal 2020-21. It also relaxed restrictions, allowing sale of vessels of over 5,000 deadweight tonnage (DWT) after three years. Previously they had to be kept for five years.

Chittagong Chamber of Commerce and Industry President Mahbubul Alam said it was really a positive sign for the country’s economy. The country’s imports and exports are mostly depended on foreign vessels and the local businesses have to spend huge foreign exchange annually as freight charges for foreign trade, he said. If the number of Bangladeshi flagged vessel increases, the local vessel owners can tap into a good amount of the foreign trade, he added.

Bangladesh Ocean Going Ship Owners’ Association President Azam Chowdhury said the growing number of registrations was for some local industrialists and commodity importers purchasing vessels to reduce cargo transport costs. Besides, government policy supports like the VAT and AIT exemptions also encouraged entrepreneurs to go for making investments in the sector, he said.

Echoing the same, Meherul Karim, Chief Executive Officer (CEO) of the country’s largest ocean-going vessel owning company, SR Shipping, said many companies wanted to take opportunity of the price drop of second-hand, medium sized Supramax vessels in the wake of the pandemic last year.

Most of the Bangladeshi-flagged bulk carriers, which have all been bought, are Supramax vessels of 50,000 DWT to 60,000 DWT and these are 15 years to 20 years old, he said.

Previously price of such vessels ranged between US$10 million and US$12 million, which came down to US$6 million to US$7 million last year, said Karim, adding that his company bought two ships in 2020. SR Shipping currently own 23 oceangoing vessels.

Overall, the 80 oceangoing vessels are owned by 15 Bangladeshi companies. Most are bulk carriers, while there are oil tankers and six container vessels.

Karnaphuli Limited, country’s lone container vessel owning company, purchased six container vessels since June last year. The group last month also placed an order with a Chinese shipbuilder to construct four new container vessels.

Karnaphuli Limited Director Hamdan Hossain Chowdhury told The Daily Star that the government has created the right enabling environment and this has facilitated unprecedented expansion of the country’s merchant fleet. “We are a maritime nation and this sector has good potential,” he said.

Currently 3,000 Bangladeshi mariners are employed in these 80 Bangladeshi-flagged vessels. MMD Principal Officer Captain Giashuddin Ahamd said they brought ease to their services such as that on issuance of registration certificates and also directly sat with vessel owners to provide encouragement.

Russia warns United States to stay away from Ukraine

Russia is seeking a legally binding pledge that NATO will stop expanding east, including to Ukraine. If the United States refuses, is war next?

Either the US and NATO provide us with "legal guarantees" that Ukraine will never join NATO or become a base for weapons that can threaten Russia — or we will go in and guarantee it ourselves.

This is the message Russian President Vladimir Putin is sending, backed by the 100,000 troops Russia has amassed on Ukraine's borders.

At the Kremlin last week, Putin drew his red line:

"The threat on our western borders is ... rising, as we have said multiple times. ... In our dialogue with the United States and its allies, we will insist on developing concrete agreements prohibiting any further eastward expansion of NATO and the placement there of weapons systems in the immediate vicinity of Russian territory."

That comes close to an ultimatum and NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg backhanded the President of Russia for issuing it:

"It's only Ukraine and 30 NATO allies that decide when Ukraine is ready to join NATO. ... Russia has no veto, Russia has no say, and Russia has no right to establish a sphere of influence trying to control their neighbors."

Yet, great powers have always established spheres of influence. Chinese President Xi Jinping claims virtually the entire South China Sea that is bordered by half a dozen nations. For 200 years, the United States has declared a Monroe Doctrine that puts the hemisphere off-limits to new colonization.

Moreover, Putin wants to speak to the real decider of the question as to whether Ukraine joins NATO or receives weapons that can threaten Russia. And the decider is not Jens Stoltenberg but President Joe Biden.

In the missile crisis of 60 years ago, the US, with its "quarantine" of Cuba and strategic and tactical superiority in the Caribbean, forced Nikita Khrushchev to pull his intermediate-range ballistic missiles, which could reach Washington, off of Fidel Castro's island.

If it did not do so, Moscow was led to understand, we would use our air and naval supremacy to destroy his missiles and send in the Marines to finish the job.

Accepting a counteroffer for the US withdrawal of Jupiter missiles from Turkey, Khrushchev complied with President John F. Kennedy's demand. Russia's missiles came out. And Kennedy was seen as having won a Cold War victory.

When the Warsaw Pact collapsed and the USSR came apart three decades ago, Russia withdrew all of its military forces from Central and Eastern Europe. Moscow believed it had an agreed-upon understanding with the Americans.

Under the deal, the two Germanys were reunited. Russian troops were removed from East Germany, Poland, Czechoslovakia, Hungary, Bulgaria and Romania and there was no NATO expansion into Eastern Europe.

If the US made that commitment, it was a promise broken. For, within 20 years, NATO had brought every Warsaw Pact nation into the alliance along with the former Soviet republics of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia.

Neocons and Republican hawks such as the late John McCain sought to bring Ukraine and two other ex-Soviet republics, Georgia and Moldova, into NATO.

Ukraine is not going to be a member of NATO or a military ally and partner of the United States, nor a base for weapons that can strike Russia in minutes. For Russia that crosses a red line, if NATO proceeds with arming Ukraine for conflict with Russia, it reserves the right to act first.

In Ukraine and in Georgia, as was evident in the 2008 war, Russia had the tactical and strategic superiority it had in 1962 in Cuba. Moreover, while Ukraine is vital to Russia, it has never been vital to us.

When President Franklin D. Roosevelt recognized Joseph Stalin's USSR in 1933, Moscow was engaged in the forced collectivization of the farms of Ukraine, which had caused a famine and the deaths of millions. United States did nothing to stop it.

During the Cold War, the US never insisted on the independence of Ukraine. Though, it celebrated when the Baltic States and Ukraine broke free of Moscow, it never regarded their independence as vital interest, and the super power should be willing to go to war.

A US war with Russia over Ukraine would be a disaster for all three nations. Nor could the US indefinitely guarantee the independence of a country 5,000 miles away that shares not only a lengthy border with Russia but also a history, language, religion, ethnicity and culture.