The horrifying images of desperate Afghans trying to get out of Kabul
after the US-backed government collapsed in August signify a major twist in
world history, the end of the US hegemony had come earlier than anticipated.
The growing weakness of United States can be attributed more
to the domestic issues rather than its overseas proxy wars. The country is gradually
losing status of largest ‘economic power’ as well as its ability to fix
internal problems.
The peak period of the US hegemony lasted less than 20
years, from the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989 to the financial crisis of
2007-09. The country was dominant in many domains of power—military, economic,
political and cultural.
The height of American hubris was the invasion of Iraq in
2003, when it hoped to remake not just Iraq and Afghanistan, but the whole
Middle East. The United States not only overestimated the effectiveness of its military
power to bring about deep political change, but also underestimated the impact
of its free-market economic model on global finance.
The decade ended with its troops bogged down in two
counterinsurgency wars and a financial crisis that accentuated the inequalities
of US-led globalization had brought about.
The degree of uni-polarity in this period has been rare in
history, and the world has been reverting to a more normal state of multi-polarity
ever since, with China, Russia, India, Europe and others gaining power relative
to counter the US.
Afghanistan’s ultimate effect on geopolitics is not likely
to be small. The US may have survived an earlier, humiliating defeat when it
withdrew from Vietnam in 1975, but regained its dominance within little more
than a decade. The much bigger challenge to the US global standing is domestic.
American society has become deeply polarized and has found
it difficult to find consensus on virtually anything. This polarization started
over conventional policy issues like taxes and abortion, but has since metastasized
into a bitter fight over cultural identity.
Normally a big external threat such as a global pandemic should
be the occasion for citizens to rally around a common response. But the
covid-19 crisis served rather to deepen divide in the United States, with
social distancing, mask-wearing and vaccinations being seen not as
public-health measures but as political markers. These conflicts have spread to
all aspects of life, from sport to the brands of consumer products that red and
blue Americans buy.
Many analysts believe that the US influence abroad depends
on its ability to fix its internal problems. Polarization has affected foreign
policy directly.
During Barack Obama’s presidency, Republicans took a hawkish
stance and scolded Democrats for the Russian “reset” and alleged naivety
regarding Vladimir Putin.
Donald Trump turned the tables by embracing Putin, and today
roughly half of Republicans believe that the Democrats constitute a bigger
threat to the American way of life than Russia does.
There is more apparent consensus regarding China as both
Republicans and Democrats agree it is a threat to democratic values. A far
greater test of the US foreign policy than Afghanistan will be Taiwan, if it
comes under direct Chinese attack. Will the United States be willing to
sacrifice its sons and daughters on behalf of that island’s independence?
Would the US risk military conflict with Russia should it invade
Ukraine? These are serious questions with no easy answers. A reasoned debate
about the US national interest has to be conducted primarily through the lens
of how it affects the partisan struggle.
The biggest policy debacle of President Joe Biden’s
administration in its first year has been its failure to plan adequately for
the rapid collapse of Afghanistan.
Biden has suggested that withdrawal was necessary in order
to focus on meeting the bigger challenges from Russia and China. Obama was
never successful in making a “pivot” to Asia because the US remained focused on
counterinsurgency in the Middle East.
In 2022, the administration needs to redeploy both resources
and the attention of policymakers to deter geopolitical rivals and engage with
allies.
The United States is not likely to regain its earlier
hegemonic status, nor should it aspire to. What it can hope for is to sustain,
with like-minded countries, a world order friendly to democratic values. The
ability do this depend on recovering a sense of national identity and purpose
at home.