Building resilience for Asia and Pacific countries

Countries meeting on Wednesday in Bangkok at the seventh session of the ESCAP Committee on Disaster Risk Reduction were called on to intensify their efforts to prepare for and tackle complex, overlapping crises as the region strives to increase the resilience of its people as well as its economies.

“Notwithstanding the progress made by many countries in devising more robust systems of early warning and responsive protection - with far fewer people dying as a result of natural disasters - the COVID-19 pandemic has demonstrated that  almost without exception, countries around the world are still ill-prepared to deal with multiple overlapping crises, which often cascade, with one triggering another,” said Armida Salsiah Alisjahbana, United Nations Under-Secretary-General and Executive Secretary of ESCAP. “Tropical cyclones, for example, can lead to floods, which lead to disease, which exacerbates poverty.”

Since the start of the pandemic, the region has been hit by multiple natural and biological disasters. At the same time, climate change has continued to warm the world, exacerbating the impacts of many of these disasters. The Asia-Pacific Disaster Report 2021, also launched today, shows that the pandemic, combined with the persistent reality of climate change, has reshaped and expanded the disaster “riskscape” in Asia and the Pacific.

The triple threat of disease, disaster and climate change is causing not only considerable human hardship but also significant economic losses. Currently, the annual average disaster-related losses are US$780 billion. This could nearly double, to around US$1.4 trillion, in a worst-case climate scenario. Choosing a proactive strategy of adapting to natural and other biological hazards would be far more cost-effective at an annual cost of US$270 billion.

In her statement during the opening session, the Special Representative of the United Nations Secretary-General for Disaster Risk Reduction, Mami Mizutori, voiced support for the Committee’s work and reiterated the need for immediate and decisive action to build disaster resilience.

“The string of record-breaking weather events show that we do not have the luxury of ‘waiting this out’ action must be taken now to address these risks,” she said. “This includes increasing international funding for disaster risk reduction and climate adaptation, especially for countries graduating from the least-developed category.”

Also speaking at the opening session, the Secretary-General of the World Meteorological Organization, Petteri Taalas, emphasized the importance of climate change mitigation efforts.

“All in all, successful climate mitigation doesn’t affect our everyday life very much,” he said, “but if we fail with climate mitigation the impact is going to be felt for centuries, even millennia.”

The final speaker at the opening session, the Secretary-General of the International Telecommunication Union, Houlin Zhao, highlighted the need for countries in Asia and the Pacific to make progress on digital transformation.

“It’s time for the Asia-Pacific region to rely even more on ICTs (information and communication technologies),” he said. “I am confident that countries in the region will access the unique opportunity presented by Covid-19 to accelerate digital transformation and leverage the historic role of ICTs in tackling the dual challenges of climate-related disasters and Covid-19.”

Today also saw the return of the ESCAP Regional Conversation series, with a Ministerial Panel on Disaster, Climate and Health Resilience. This was the first in a series of four events that will bring together eminent personalities and thought leaders to exchange ideas and solutions to some of the key challenges facing Asia and the Pacific.

In her remarks, Ms. Alisjahbana highlighted the need to build universal resilience to address the vulnerabilities the pandemic has exposed and to tackle rising levels of inequality and poverty. She called for a paradigm shift in disaster risk management toward a focus on investing in prevention and the building of resilience.

Israeli weapons used against Taliban in Afghanistan

From drones to missiles and armored vehicles, Israeli-made weapons systems helped coalition forces against Taliban fighters. Though Israeli troops have never been on the ground in the war-torn central Asian country, numerous coalition nations used Israeli systems during the 20 years of fighting against the radical jihadist terrorist group.

While many Israeli defense companies have stayed mum on the use of their products in Afghanistan, according to multiple reports, countries like the United Kingdom, Germany, Canada and Australia have used their products for years.

Numerous countries used remotely piloted aircraft (RPAs) to collect intelligence, and Israeli-made SPIKE missiles were used in battle. Troops were also able to drive around safely in high-intensity areas in Israeli-made MRAP (Mine-Resistant Ambush Protected) military light tactical vehicles.

One of the main Israeli weapons systems used by foreign militaries in Afghanistan was drones.

Foreign reports state that Israel is considered a leading exporter of drones and has sold such systems to numerous countries including Australia, Canada, Chile, Colombia, France, Germany, India, Mexico, Singapore and South Korea.

The German Air Force began operating the Heron TP, manufactured by Israel Aerospace Industries (IAI), in Afghanistan in 2010. They were involved in thousands of missions, logging thousands of flight hours.

The Heron TPs are IAI’s most advanced RPAs with 40-hour endurance, a maximum take-off weight of 11,685 pounds, and a payload of 2,204 pounds. They can be used for reconnaissance, combat and support roles, and can carry air-to-ground missiles to take out hostile targets.

The German pilots were trained in Israel regarding how to operate the RPA and learn about its surveillance capabilities.

The Canadian military and the Australians also flew IAI’s Heron 1 RPA in Afghanistan.

Equipped with satellite data link and electro-optical infrared sensors, the Heron 1 is not only able to provide reconnaissance to ground forces in combat situations, assist in convoying and patrolling, create movement profiles, and carry out long-term monitoring, but it is also able to track down explosives from the air.

Several of them crashed in Afghanistan.

But it wasn’t only the Heron that was flying in Afghanistan’s skies.

Since 2005, the Australian Army in Afghanistan has also flown the Skylark 1 unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) manufactured by Elbit Systems.

The Skylark, measuring seven and a half feet, is used by troops for tactical surveillance and close-range counter-terror missions. It can be launched by one or two soldiers, and is operated on the roof of buildings or in the back of armored personnel carriers, providing live video to operators once airborne.

With a range of 10-15 km, the mini-UAV has an exceptionally quiet electric motor and outstanding observation capabilities giving troops beyond-line-of-sight intelligence, enhancing their performance in various mission scenarios.

Australia also flew the Skylark during missions in Iraq.

In addition to RPAs, Rafael Advanced Defense Systems’ Spike NLOS (Non Line Of Sight) missile was used by both the British and Canadians in Afghanistan.

The missile’s precision proved useful in battles against the Taliban. Although the Brits tried to keep its use quiet, they publicly admitted to using the missile, known as Exactor, in 2014.

The Spike NLOS is capable of penetrating 39 inches of armor, and can be operated in either direct attack or mid-course navigation based on target coordinates only. These modes enable the defeat of long-range hidden targets with pinpoint precision, damage assessment, and the obtaining of real-time intelligence.

It has a range of 25 km and can be used with a number of warheads such as heat, fragmentation, PBF (penetration, blast and fragmentation) and PBF/F suited for urban and high-intensity conflicts. The missile, which can be installed on a variety of platforms, provides the gunner with the ability to attack targets at stand-off range and get real-time intelligence and damage assessment following the strikes.

Though Israel does not comment on foreign reports, Iranian media reported in 2019 that troops were sent to Afghanistan to collect intelligence on Iranian military movement.

According to Iran’s Tasnim news agency, Israeli troops operated out of a United States Air Force base in Shindand in the western Afghanistan province of Herat some 75 km from the Iranian border and were collecting intelligence on Iranian movement around the Persian Gulf region.

Russia’s Sputnik News stated at the time that the Israelis were operating “under the flags of the United States and the United Arab Emirates.”

Sputnik quoted an expert on Israel as saying that the Israeli troops were operating under the framework of American forces stationed there, and that the activity was carried out with the knowledge and approval of the Afghan government.

As Western forces leave Afghanistan and the Taliban solidifies its power over the country, the jihadist group has also obtained advanced American weaponry, including some drones.

But with the Canadians, Brits and Germans having ended their fight several years ago, it’s unlikely that the Taliban got their hands on the Israeli-made systems that hunted them for so long.

Iran resumes fuel exports to Afghanistan at Taliban request

Iran restarted its petrol and diesel exports to Afghanistan a few days ago, following a request from Taliban, the Union of Iranian Oil, Gas and Gas Exporters announced on Monday.

The Sunni Muslim group seized power in Afghanistan last week as the United States and its allies withdrew their troops after a 20-year war.

Gasoline prices in Afghanistan hit US$900/ton last week as many panicked Afghans left towns fearing retaliation and a return to a harsh version of Islamic law imposed by Taliban when they were in power two decades ago.

To counter the surge in prices, the new Taliban government has asked Shia Iran to keep the borders open to traders.

“The Taliban have sent messages to Iran saying ‘you can continue to export petroleum products’,” Hamid Hosseini, member of the board of directors and spokesperson for the Iranian union in Tehran, told Reuters, adding that some Iranian traders had been cautious due to security concerns.

Iranian exports started a few days ago, after the Taliban cut tariffs on fuel imports from Iran by up to 70%, Hosseini added, showing an official document from the Afghan customs organization.

The main Iranian exports to Afghanistan are gasoline and diesel. Iran exported around 400,000 tons of fuel to its neighbor from May 2020 to May 2021, according to a report released by PetroView, an Iranian oil and gas research and advisory platform.

Hezbollah to arrange Iranian fuel for Lebanon in defiance of US sanctions

An Iranian fuel shipment arranged by Hezbollah for Lebanon is likely to sail on Thursday. The Group has cautioned its US and Israeli foes against any moves to halt the consignment aimed at easing an acute fuel crisis in Lebanon.

Hezbollah's opponents in Lebanon warned the move could have dire consequences. Saad al-Hariri, a former prime minister, said it risked sanctions being imposed on a country whose economy has been in meltdown for nearly two years.

Israeli military spokesman Lieutenant Colonel Amnon Shefler declined to comment on whether Israel would take any military action to stop the shipment, but called it part of an Iranian scheme to export its revolution and promote its proxies.

The arrival of the Iranian fuel oil would mark a new phase in the financial crisis which the Lebanese state and its ruling factions, including Hezbollah, have failed to tackle even as fuel has run dry and shortages have triggered deadly violence.

There was no comment from the Lebanese government on the announcement made by Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah.

The US ambassador to Lebanon, Dorothy Shea, told Al Arabiya English that Lebanon didn't need Iranian tankers, citing "a whole bunch" of fuel ships off the coast waiting to unload.

The United States was in talks with Egypt and Jordan to help find solutions to Lebanon's fuel and energy needs, she said, speaking hours after Hezbollah's announcement.

Marking the biggest threat to Lebanon's stability since the 1975-90 civil war, the financial crisis has hit a crunch point, with hospitals and other essential services being forced to shut or scale back due to power cuts and the acute scarcity of fuel.

Fuel shortages have worsened since the central bank said last week it would no longer finance the imports at heavily subsidized exchange rates. The government has yet to raise official prices, however, leaving shipments in limbo.

Nasrallah said further Iranian shipments would follow to help the people of Lebanon.

"I say to the Americans and the Israelis that the boat that will sail within hours from Iran is Lebanese territory," Nasrallah said, suggesting that any action to stop it would be met with a response.

"We don't want to get... into a problem with anyone. We want to help our people," he said in a televised address.

Iran's semi-official Nournews said the fuel was all purchased by a group of Lebanese Shi'ite businessmen.

"The shipments are considered their property from the moment of loading," said the news website, which is close to Iran's Supreme National Security Council.

In June, Nasrallah said Iran was prepared to accept payment in the Lebanese currency, which has lost more than 90% of its value in two years.

US sanctions on Iran, reimposed in 2018 when then-President Donald Trump withdrew from a 2015 nuclear deal with Tehran, aimed to cut its oil sales to zero.

Hezbollah, founded by Iran's Revolutionary Guards in 1982, is also targeted by US sanctions.

Nasrallah did not say when or where the shipment would dock. One possibility is in neighboring Syria, where Reuters reported in April the group was readying fuel storage capacity as part of plans to respond to the crisis.

Hariri criticized Nasrallah for declaring the ships Lebanese territory, rejected what he described as Lebanon being treated as an Iranian province, and said the country could suffer the fate of Venezuela, which is under heavy sanctions.

Samir Geagea, a Christian politician and Hezbollah opponent, said that having usurped government authorities in security and military affairs, the group was now taking over economic decision-making to the detriment of the Lebanese.

Badri 313 outfit of Taliban providing security at Kabul airport

Taliban-linked social media accounts claim that members of the group’s Badri 313 outfit are providing security at Kabul international airport. Badri 313 is a Special Forces wing of the Taliban’s army. 

It has been responsible for some of the group’s key battlefield successes and has also conducted complex “martyrdom” (suicide) operations.

Photos posted on Taliban-associated feeds purportedly show Badri 313 units in and around the airport in Kabul. It is not clear how many of the group’s men are there.

The Haqqani Network, which plays an integral role in the Taliban’s political and military command structure, has long advertised the operations carried out by its special forces in the “Badri Army.”

In February 2020, for instance, the Haqqani’s Manba Al Jihad media arm released a video entitled, “Badri Strike.” The production was posted online just weeks before the Trump administration entered into a withdrawal agreement with the Taliban in Doha.

“Badri Strike” contains clips of President Trump saying that “the American people are weary of war without victory.” Trump continued: “Nowhere is this more evident than with the war in Afghanistan, the longest war in American history, 17 years.” The video’s producers say America and its allies in Kabul have been defeated.

The video’s narrator states that whereas the US once declared the Taliban to be “terrorists,” it was forced to negotiate with the jihadists. The talks are portrayed as a clear victory for the Taliban’s Islamic Emirate, which the narrator holds up as an example for other Muslim groups around the world. The production also places the impending return of the Taliban’s Islamic Emirate in the context of Muslims’ quest to restore an Islamic caliphate to power. In other words, the Taliban was anticipating a complete victory in the months to come.

A key ideologue featured in “Badri Strike” is Ustadh Mohammad Yasir, a dual-hatted Taliban-Al Qaeda figure. Yasir reportedly died in 2012 under somewhat murky circumstances. 

He had been arrested by Pakistani forces several years before. Yasir was a key ideologue for al Qaeda’s recruitment efforts in Afghanistan and Pakistan.

Yasir appeared in al Qaeda’s media, including an interview with As Sahab. Ayman al-Zawahiri honored Yasir in a talk released on the 18th anniversary of the 9/11 attacks. Zawahiri recounted a meeting between Yasir and bin Laden in the Tora Bora Mountains in late 2001, during which the pair discussed the 9/11 hijackings.

The archival audio of Yasir included in “Badri Strike” is therefore telling. It demonstrates that the special forces wing of the Taliban is drawing from the same ideological well as al Qaeda. In the brief clip, Yasir explains the supposed virtues of martyrdom.

“This is the blessing of your sacrifices, blood and martyrs,” Yasir says in the clip included in “Badri Strike.” Yasir goes on: “Martyrs in every nation are like candles. It burns its own self, but lightens the darknesses, it burns its own self, but gives light to others. Similarly, if your martyrs have sacrificed and burnt their lives (for Allah SWT), they have also brightened the house of Islam.”

Much of “Badri Strike” is devoted to glorifying the team of jihadists responsible for the November 2018 attack on a G4S compound in Kabul. G4S is a British security and intelligence firm. “Badri Strike” documents the meticulous planning and training that went into the complicated suicide operation. A team of Badri 313 commandos received elite training in small arms beforehand. They infiltrated the compound after one of their comrades detonated a large vehicle bomb outside.

Commander Pakistan Navy visits Tehran

Admiral Mohammad Amjad Khan Niazi, Commander Pakistan Navy, visited Tehran on Saturday and was officially welcomed by his Iranian counterpart Shahram Irani. Admiral Niazi is visiting Iran upon the official invitation of the Iranian Navy commander.

The two commanders discussed a range of issues including expanding military relations, deepening ties in the sea, protecting regional security, and using military experience in undertaking missions and safeguarding the two neighboring countries’ national interests at the sea.

On the sideline of the meeting, Iranian and Pakistani navy commanders also paid tribute to the anonymous martyrs of the eight-year Sacred Defense buried in the National Museum of the Islamic Revolution and Holy Defense and then made a tour at the museum.

Iran refers to resistance against the invading Saddam Army in the 1980s as Sacred Defense.

Admiral Irani said that Iran and Pakistan could serve together as a powerful arm for ensuring regional security. 
  
Referring to strategic relations between the naval forces of Iran and Pakistan, the commander said that the two forces have staged different joint naval maneuvers over the past years.

He also called for efforts by the naval forces of both countries to establish security, particularly in the Northern Indian Ocean.

Iranian and Pakistani naval forces have in recent years promoted cooperation and staged several joint drills in the Indian Ocean and the Sea of Oman.

In April, a flotilla of the Pakistani Navy berthed at Iran’s southern port city of Bandar Abbas and held a joint war game in the Persian Gulf and the Sea of Oman with the Iranian units.

The Pakistani Navy commander is scheduled to visit Iran’s northern fleet deployed at coasts of the Caspian Sea.

China to be the first major power to recognize new Afghan regime

I request all the readers of my blog to read this article written by Admiral James Stavridis. He was 16th Supreme Allied Commander of NATO and 12th Dean of the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University. He spent the bulk of his operational career in the Pacific, and is author of "2034: A Novel of the Next World War."

For most of the 19th century, the Russian and British empires contended over Afghanistan in what was known as the Great Game.

The geopolitical competition recognized the strategic position of Afghanistan, and its potential to influence what is today Pakistan and India. Both the Brits and the Russians, of course, were defeated over time in Afghanistan, the so-called "graveyard of empires."

Today, following the spectacular collapse of the American-trained Afghan army, the triumph of Taliban and the humiliating withdrawal under combat conditions of the remnants of the US diplomatic mission, Afghanistan seemingly reverts to 2001 ‑ run by hardline religious zealots determined to follow strict Shariah law. Will anything change, and a new Great Game emerging?

Stavridis believes, Taliban 2.0 will not be kinder or gentler to their own citizens, they have probably learned that allowing their nation to serve as a base for international terrorist operations can lead to twenty years in the wilderness or in this case, the mountains of Pakistan. Likely they will be less interested in spreading jihad globally than in simply dominating the fractious Afghan nation.

That will not be easy. There are still regional warlords, especially in the north, which will not willingly bend a knee to the Taliban for long. Likewise, there are restive ethnic elements in the Afghan population - notably the Tajiks and Hazaras - who have no love for what they see as Pashtun fanatics from Kandahar. Afghanistan has a long and rich tradition of internal squabbling once an external foe is ejected.

All of which brings us to the role other major nations will play in Afghanistan now that the US has folded its tents and flown away into the night. The sudden shock to the system regionally is palpable. Other Asian nations, including China, Russian, India, Pakistan and Iran, all have interests that will drive events going forward.

China is clearly positioning itself to be a major international partner to the Taliban. They could care less about human or gender rights in Afghanistan, and will only want to consolidate a dominant position in regard to the US$2 trillion worth of rare earths - most notably lithium. As China seeks to consolidate as much control as they can over strategic supply chains for everything from microchips to electric car batteries, they want primacy in Kabul -- and will be the first major nation to recognize the new regime.

For Pakistan, this is a moment of triumph. They have assiduously supported the Taliban for the past two decades, both to control terrorist groups that occasionally threaten Pakistan and to deny India a foothold in a country on the other side of their border. Closely aligned with China internationally, they will seek to partner with the Chinese in exploiting the mineral wealth and blocking India from a role with the Taliban regime. Pakistan also wants a certain level of stability to avoid mass illegal migration, something they have dealt with repeatedly from Afghanistan.

Russia has a different set of interests than the China-Pakistan axis. They seek first and foremost a stable situation that can reduce the propensity for radical Islamic terrorism exported north through the former republics of the old Soviet Union.

And while Putin is always happy to see the US receive a black eye, the Russians are also hopeful that the Taliban can be encouraged to exert a higher level of control over the massive heroin production - much of which ends up in the arms of young Russians and other Europeans. Look for Russia to quickly recognize the Taliban, ignore any human or gender rights violations, and offer modest assistance in return for stability and at least some level of reduction in the narcotics trade.

To the west, Iran has had a fractious relationship with the Taliban in the past. Taliban are Sunni and the Iranians, of course, are Shia. Overall, the Iranians are thrilled with the ejection of the US from bases on their border and will place a premium on how the Pashtun Taliban treat the Tajiks, who are linguistically connected to the Iranians and constitute almost a third of the nation's population. In the west around Herat and in the north surrounding Mazar-e-Sharif, the Iranians will strengthen commercial relationships and seek amicable relations with the new government.

Perhaps the most interesting role may be played by India. The Indians have long sought relationships in Afghanistan, both for the commercial potential of the nation and to put pressure on Pakistan. China will do all it can, in concert with Pakistan, to foreclose any Indian influence in Kabul -- which had grown significantly under Ashraf Ghani's presidency.

Finally, while the US has departed Afghanistan, it will seek to maintain intelligence overwatch through satellite surveillance; clandestine CIA operations; cooperating with other nations who continue to maintain embassies there; monitoring cyber and cellphone intelligence; and building human networks.

NATO and other US allies will operate around the edge. But for the moment, the dominant forces in Afghanistan will be from the neighborhood -- notably led by China. Thus the Great Game continues, but the players are all locals.