Israel attacks Iranian nuclear facility at Natanz

Mossad was reportedly behind the cyberattack at the Natanz nuclear plant on Sunday that caused extensive damage to Iran’s main uranium enrichment facility.

Western sources quoted in Israeli media said the attack, which was initially referred to as an accident by Iran, was carried out by the Mossad.

Iran admitted on Sunday evening that the accident was the result of a terrorist act.

The country’s nuclear chief, Ali Akbar Salehi, said the international community and the International Atomic Energy Agency needed to deal with what he called nuclear terrorism. Iran reserves the right to take action against the perpetrators, he was quoted as saying.

The incident at Natanz was not an accident, and the damage was worse than what Iran had initially presented to the public, a source confirmed to The Jerusalem Post. Western sources said the facility was hit by a cyberattack.

IDF Chief of Staff Lt.-Gen. Aviv Kohavi gave a rare strong hint pointing to Israeli involvement on Sunday.

 “The IDF’s actions throughout the Middle East are not hidden from our enemies’ vision, who are observing us, seeing our capabilities and carefully considering their next steps,” he said in a speech honoring Israel’s fallen soldiers.

“By virtue of clever operational activities, the past year was one of the most secure years that the citizens of the State of Israel have known,” Kohavi said.

“We will continue to act, combining power and discretion, determination and responsibility – all of this to guarantee the security of the State of Israel.”

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, at an Independence Day event on Sunday with the heads of the security branches, said, “The struggle against Iran and its proxies and the Iranian armament efforts is a huge mission.”

In a possible reference to the reported Mossad operation taking the uranium enrichment machines off-line within hours of their launch, he said: “The situation that exists today will not necessarily be the situation that will exist tomorrow.”

Natanz has in the past been targeted by Israeli cyber operations, according to foreign reports. In 2010, the Stuxnet virus attacked the facility in a joint operation with the US, destroying more than 1,000 centrifuges.

Iran said there no injuries or pollution were caused by the incident on Sunday. Malek Shariati-Niasar, an Iranian MP and spokesman for a parliamentary energy commission, wrote that the incident was highly suspected as being “sabotage,” being that it occurred on Iran’s National Nuclear Technology Day and amid the renewal of talks between the Islamic Republic and Western nations on the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action nuclear deal of 2015.

The Iranian parliament was following the details of the incident and would announce an opinion on the matter after receiving and summarizing the information, he said.

Earlier on Sunday, Iran said a problem with the electrical distribution grid of the Natanz site had caused an incident.

Iranian MP Ali Haddad placed the blame for the incident on Israel.

“Yesterday the assassination of a nuclear scientist and today the attack on the Iranian ship Saviz and the sabotage of the Natanz nuclear facility,” he tweeted.

Haddad called for deterrence and not restraint. “When commitment is translated as restraint, the Zionist enemy dares to strike more blows,” he said.

The attack against Natanz took place a day after Iran began injecting uranium hexafluoride gas into advanced IR-6 and IR-5 centrifuges at Natanz and was revealed as US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin was visiting Israel.

It also came less than a month after the IAEA reported that Iran had restarted enrichment at the Natanz facility and less than a year after Israel was blamed by foreign reports for an alleged attack on the facility, which reportedly had significantly impacted Iran’s nuclear program.

Iran is still nowhere near having recovered to the point where it had been before that July 2020 explosion in terms of its capacity for assembling new advanced centrifuges, the Post recently reported.

In the alleged attack last year, Iranian reports originally referred to the explosion as an incident without providing further details.

“The centrifuge assembly hall was blown up by the enemy a few months ago, but we did not stop and temporarily set up the hall that made up for the lost hall,” Iranian nuclear chief Salehi said Saturday, according to Iran’s semi-official Fars News Agency. He did not specify which “enemy” was behind the attack last year.

Iran is working to move sensitive facilities at Natanz further underground and hopes the new underground halls will be ready next year, Salehi said.

Tensions are rising between Israel and Iran amid a number of attacks on Iranian and Israeli maritime vessels, with recent reports claiming that Israel has hit dozens of Iranian ships in recent years.

On Tuesday, a spokesman for the Iranian military blamed Israel and the US for causing an explosion on the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps’ Saviz vessel in the Red Sea, Sputnik news reported last Thursday.

“The United States undoubtedly has a hand in all attempts to undermine and harm Iran,” the spokesman said in a statement, adding that Tehran was not accusing any of the Gulf states of being involved in the incident.

Iran is meeting with European and American officials to discuss a possible return to the JCPOA.

Netanyahu has warned multiple times in the past week that Israel would defend itself against Iranian threats, stressing that Jerusalem would work to combat Tehran’s nuclear ambitions.

Can Iran become a new hub of copper?

In this blog, I am talking about an important base metal, copper. Many of the readers may be aware that copper mines around the world are facing closure due to one or the other reason. As a result prices of this important industrial metal are going up in the global markets.

Industries using copper are desperately looking for alternative sources of supply. My today’s blog has been inspired after reading a report about discovery of huge copper reserves in Iran, Pakistan’s next door neighbor.

Managing Director of National Iranian Copper Industries Company (NICIC) has announced the discovery of one billion tons of new copper reserves in Iran.

NICIC carried out deep drilling to identify new copper reserves across the country, which resulted in the discovery of one billion tons of new reserves, Ardeshir Sa'd-Mohammadi said in a press conference. He put the value of the discovered reserves at about US$8.3 billion.

The official put the country’s total copper reserves at 40 billion tons, saying that Iran currently has the world’s seventh-largest copper reserves, and hopefully the country will climb to sixth place shortly.

Sa’d-Mohammadi further mentioned the new record achieved in the country’s copper cathode production and noted that over 280,000 tons of the commodity were produced in the country during the previous year which was 12 percent more than the preceding year.

Pointing to the NICIC’s new projects for the current year, the official noted that three major copper-related projects will go operational in the current year which is going to add more than 400,000 tons to the country’s copper concentrate output, boosting the company’s annual incomes by US$800 million.

He further noted that the country’s copper exports increased in the previous year despite the negative impacts of the coronavirus pandemic and the US sanctions.

Pakistan Refinery should not be allowed to import second hand refinery

It is worth noting that Pakistan Refinery Limited (PRL) intends to buy a second-hand refinery to upgrade its operations and increase output to meet rising demand of POL in the country. 

PRL has placed an advertisement to purchase a second-hand refinery complex for relocation to Pakistan. Offers from interested bidders have been invited with a closing date of April 23, 2021.

Please allow me to say that this entire episode seems a dubious attempt, simply looking at the closing date and the rational provided. It is right that PRL may succeed in doubling its capacity to 100,000 bpd, but the unit/units being imported will be outdated and/or obsolete. Another limiting factor is that PRL will be able execute plan for upgrading and expanding Euro V specification and high speed diesel oil production.

The report highlights two important points: 1) Pakistan’s total refining capacity is 19.37 million tons per year, while the country consumes 19.68 million tons of petroleum products annually and 2) the Government of Pakistan (GoP) says refining capacity is not being fully utilized on account of financial as well as technical problems, and is supplying only 11.59 million tons per year, while the remaining demand is met through imports.

The Finance Ministry, in a report released in March 2021 said that import volume of crude increased by 13.8% during the first eight months of FY21. Import volumes of petroleum products increased by 27.7% in the same period.

Reportedly, the GoP has finalized a new policy for petroleum refining, aimed at offering incentives for setting up of deep conversion refineries. Therefore, PRL project may not qualify for the incentives stipulated in the Policy.

It seems an attempt is being made to reward the favorites by stating that the incentives would also be available to the existing refineries for upgrading and modernizing their facilities. There would be no restriction on technology, equipment or process to qualify for such upgrade provided that it results in motor gasoline and diesel production to meet specifications notified by the government.

To conclude, it may be sufficient to advise the GoP not to allow Pakistan Refinery to import secondhand machinery and obsolete technology. I also invite the experts and potential investors in refineries to explore the reasons behind half a dozen foreign investors bidding farewell to Pakistan in last one decade.

Why to blame Saudi Arabia for coup in Jordan?

Reportedly, Shaker Zalloum, a Palestinian author believes that Saudi Arabia and the UAE had a key role in the coup attempt in Jordan. He has been quoted saying, “In the official statement of the Jordanian government, there is a reference to the intervention of foreign intelligence without specifying them.”

He went to the extent of saying, “I think it is most likely a coup attempt behind which Saudi Arabia and the UAE played a key role.”

Zalloum talked about two persons Bassem Awadallah, one of the advisers of Mohammed bin Salman and Sharif Hassan bin Zaid a Jordanian citizen who also holds Saudi citizenship. In the same breath he termed Bassem Awadallah, as one of the leaders of corruption in Jordan and the region.

Talking about attitude of Saudi Arabia and Bahrain towards the Palestinian cause, he said, “The following of subordination policy of the American-Zionist camp has become obvious even to the simple Arab citizen in Jordan and in most Arab countries. What happened under normalization of ties with Israel, reveals the malicious nature of the plan.”

He also gave a strange narrative, “These independent regimes were established according to specific job tasks to serve the colonial West and the Zionist ambitions in Palestine. When Britain declared its Hebrew Kingdom of Saudi Arabia in 1932, Churchill wired to Chaim Weizmann congratulating him on the accomplishment of half of the promised state of Israel. As for the delusive independence for the rest of the Persian Gulf states, it came in the same context.”

As regards Bahrain and UAE he said, “Indeed, their cooperation with the Zionists is old, and what has appeared to the public in terms of recent normalization of ties does not go beyond the precedent illegitimate relationships. These regimes claim advocating Arabs and Islam, while they are neither Muslim nor Arab.”

After going through interview of Shaker Zalloum, my only concern is that it aims at maligning Saudi Arabia and other Gulf States. He has not made any reference to reports that alleged involvement of one of Mossad agents in the coup.  

Lifting US sanctions on Iran not an easy job

The most complicated issue in the United States-Iran relationship is the intertwined US sanctions, which were aimed at punishing the Islamic Republic on multiple counts and in the worst possible manner. 

These include from activities related to the nuclear program and support of terrorism to missile proliferation and human rights abuses. Some of Iran’s major institutions, including the Central Bank Iran, were sanctioned, both for their roles supporting the nuclear program and for aiding the alleged terrorist attacks by proxy militias.

The Biden administration wants to lift the sanctions related to Iran’s nuclear program – as promised in the 2015 deal – if Tehran, in turn, rolls back recent breaches of the nuclear deal. The complicating factor in current and future diplomacy is that key Iranian institutions and individuals could remain sanctioned for secondary reasons, thus not providing Iran the economic relief it seeks.

Iran’s oil industry, the country’s main source of export revenue, is a prime example. Biden could lift sanctions on NIOC for its role in funding programs on weapons of mass destruction. But it would remain sanctioned for financially facilitating terrorism orchestrated by the Revolutionary Guards. The same problem of overlapping sanctions could arise in any future talks about Iran’s missile program because institutions involved in proliferation are also sanctioned for supporting regional terrorism.

The Biden administration has the authority to provide temporary exemption from sanctions; it would keep sanctions in place legally but nullify their effects until the Treasury formally revokes sanctions. “Iran is unlikely to be satisfied with such an approach and could demand formal removal of counter terrorism sanctions on these entities, a move that would be hugely unpopular in US domestic circles,” Brian O'Toole wrote for the Atlantic Council.

The issue of sanctions was further complicated when President Donald Trump abandoned the nuclear deal—brokered by the world’s six major powers over two years of intense diplomacy—in 2018. He then re-imposed earlier sanctions from the Bush and Obama administrations that had been lifted when the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) was implemented in 2016. He also took the unusual step of sanctioning Iran’s banking and oil sectors for funding the Revolutionary Guards and extremist proxies across the Middle East.

On April 2, Iran has begun indirect talks in Vienna with the United States on returning to compliance with the JCPOA. The Iranian delegation included representatives from the Central Bank of Iran and the Petroleum Ministry, which reflected Tehran’s interest in sanctions relief.

Therefore, there is an urgent need to assess the sanction imposed on Central Bank of Iran, National Iranian Oil Company, National Iranian Tanker Company, National Petrochemical Company, Islamic Republic of Iran Shipping Lines and 18 commercial banks. The filth of more than four decades can’t be cleaned in a few days or months.

Israeli attack on Iranian ship Saviz indicates change in modus operandi

An Iranian vessel was attacked in the Red Sea as Iran and the West resumed nuclear talks in Vienna to revive the 2015 nuclear deal between Tehran and major world powers. Saudi and American media outlets claimed that Israel was behind the attack. The Saudi-owned Al Arabiya reported that an “Israeli commando” attached “a magnetic explosive device” to an Iranian vessel in the Red Sea.

The Tasnim news agency confirmed the attack and identified the vessel as “Iran Saviz.” It reported “The incident happened after the explosion of limpet mines attached to the hull of the ship.”

A day later, Iran officially commented on the issue. The Iranian Foreign Ministry issued a statement confirming the attack.

“The Iranian merchant ship Saviz sustained minor damage in the Red Sea off the coast of Djibouti on April 6, 2021, due to an explosion, the cause of which is being investigated,” Saeed Khatibzadeh, the Ministry’s spokesman said. 

He said the vessel has been deployed to the region in coordination with the International Maritime Organization (IMO) and it has been involved in ensuring maritime security. 

“As already officially announced and based on the arrangements made with the IMO, the non-military Saviz ship had been stationed in the Red Sea region and the Gulf of Aden in order to ensure maritime security along shipping lanes and to counter pirates,” explained the spokesman.

“The ship practically served as Iran’s logistical station (for technical support and logistics) in the Red Sea; so, the specifications and mission of this vessel had already been officially announced to the International Maritime Organization,” he added.

Iran didn’t point the finger at anyone. But, The New York Times suggested that Israel was behind the attack. “The Israelis had notified the United States that its forces had struck the vessel,” the American newspaper quoted a US official as saying.

Although, the official said that the Israelis had termed the attack ‘retaliation’ for alleged earlier Iranian strikes on Israeli vessels, but the timing of the attack strongly indicated a link between the resumption of nuclear talks in Vienna and Israeli efforts to derail those talks.

The Times implicitly pointed to this link, saying the attack came as progress was reported on the first day of the Vienna talks, which are aimed to revive the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, officially known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) - the very deal that Israel has been working hard to sabotage since 2015.

Therefore, Israel may have intended to send a message to the Biden administration that it will do whatever it can to prevent a revival of the JCPOA. Israel’s modus operandi in the latest attack also suggests a change in Israel’s approach. Israel has reportedly been involved in a shadowy naval war with Iran in recent years.

Several Western news media reported that Israel has been attacking Iranian vessels carrying oil and other commodities since 2019 in a bid to spoil Iran’s economic ties with other countries. These attacks mostly went unnoticed and Israel refused to publicize them until most recently. 

The Israelis would often attack Iranian commercial ships deep into the night using helicopters equipped with machine guns from a distance of many kilometers, a source familiar with the matter told the Tehran Times. 

The Israeli attacks were more of a harassment nature than an operation meant to inflict real damage, according to the source. 

The attack on the Saviz, however, indicates a new modus operandi. First, it was reportedly done with a limpet mine attached to the hull of the Iranian vessel by an Israeli commando. Second, it was carried out early in the morning, a clear indication that the attacker wanted it to be publicized. Leaking the news of the attack to Al Arabiya and The New York Times left little doubt about the intention of the attacker. 

Israel seems to be busy working to prevent the US from returning to its commitments under the JCPOA. If the US is willing to revive the nuclear deal then it needs to pay more attention to Israeli machinations. 

India acquiring strength to monitor movement of Chinese vessels in Malacca Strait

The grant issued by the Japanese government just could not go unnoticed by the stakeholders of Indo-Pacific. The US$36 million in aid to install a battery energy storage system on India's Andaman and Nicobar Islands ‑ Japan's first-ever grant to the strategically located islands ‑ is much more than clean energy. 

Sitting at the mouth of the Malacca Strait, arguably the most important chokepoint in the world, the islands give India and its friends a front-row view of Chinese vessels going into and out of the narrow waterway.

On 26^th March, Japanese Ambassador Satoshi Suzuki and C. S. Mohapatra, an Additional Secretary at India's Ministry of Finance, exchanged notes in New Delhi concerning grant/aid of US$36 million to install a battery energy storage system at the Phoenix Bay Power House on the island of South Andaman to utilize renewable energy and stabilize energy supply.

"It contributes to our shared vision for a free and open Indo-Pacific, and also contributes to Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga's goal of offering climate change assistance," the official said.

"The real advantage the Andamans provide to India is the ability to conduct surveillance over critical waters," said Darshana Baruah, an associate fellow with the South Asia Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

"The islands offer unparalleled advantage in surveillance and monitoring the Malacca Strait. It is also close to the Straits of Indonesia, the alternate route into the Indian Ocean, especially for submarines," she said.

"A coherent monitoring and response mechanism will help India detect Chinese vessels upon their entry into the Indian Ocean."

But to maximize their potential, and to host more personnel on the islands, they will need to develop infrastructure, including water, electricity, housing and internet access. "The Japanese grant addresses a key requirement on the ground that will help India better utilize the strategic potential of the Andaman and Nicobar," Baruah said.

Tanvi Madan, a senior fellow and director of The India Project at the Brookings Institution, noted that while the power grid funded by the grant contributes to civilian infrastructure, "it serves a dual purpose."

Madan said that the grant comes at a time when India is stitching in Andaman and Nicobar into its strategic tapestry in a much more significant way and reflects a change in attitude on both the Indian and Japanese sides.

India was the first country Japan extended official development assistance to in 1958. But India has always been reluctant to bring external actors into the Indian Ocean. Japan, for its part, has been hesitant to be too active in India's strategic periphery, to avoid being unnecessarily provocative to China, Madan said.

On India's side, two things are clear, Madan said. One, there is recognition that China, including through its navy, will be increasingly active in the Indian Ocean region. Second, because India cannot tackle that growing presence on its own, "you have now seen a broader switch in Indian strategy that has involved both developing its own capabilities and welcoming other external actors."

China has been boosting its presence in the Indian Ocean, opening its first overseas military base in Djibouti and building a series of commercial ports in Myanmar, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, and the Maldives that could eventually serve a military purpose.