Turkish exports to Saudi Arabia coming to grind halt

An unofficial Saudi boycott of Turkish goods reduced Turkey’s exports to the Kingdom to a record low in January 2021, despite diplomatic efforts to mend ties between the two countries. Turkish exports to Saudi Arabia dropped by a remarkable 92% in January, from US$221 million to just US$16 million YoY, according to data released by the Turkish Exporters Union (TIM).

Last year, Riyadh ramped up its efforts targeting the Turkish economy after a Turkish court’s decision to accept two separate indictments against Saudi officials said to be involved in the murder of Jamal Khashoggi in Istanbul in October 2018.

Relations between the two regional powerhouses have been at a low since the murder of the Saudi journalist, whose killing is believed by the CIA to have been ordered by Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.

Since October, the Saudi government has been systematically pressuring local businesses not to trade with Turkish companies and to drop their goods from their shelves.

The statistics indicate a steady slowdown in Turkish exports since then. As a result, Turkey’s annual exports to Saudi Arabia decreased by 24% in 2020, to US$2.3 billion from US$3.1 billion.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan last year tried to remedy the situation by talking to Saudi King Salman, and both agreed to hold consultations on the issue.

However, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu’s first meeting with his Saudi counterpart Faisal bin Farhan in November 2020 ultimately failed to change the situation.

 “We have agreed to have a second meeting to discuss the problems,” one senior Turkish official said, speaking anonymously, at the time. Since then, no second meeting has taken place.

Burak Onder, a Turkish houseware and kitchenware manufacturer and exporter, told Turkish media that exports to Saudi Arabia had come to almost a complete halt because goods that had been sent to the country had been held in customs for months without any official explanation.

One senior Turkish trade ministry official, speaking anonymously, told Middle East Eye that from time to time the Saudis would release exports held in the customs after official interventions, but the general problem was still ongoing.

Turkish officials have been considerably muted over the Khashoggi murder and other issues of friction with Riyadh, such as Ankara's relationship with the Muslim Brotherhood, since last year.

"We don't have any issue other than the Khashoggi affair, which we have done as much as we could to resolve," a Turkish official said last November. "It is time to move on."

China and Russia demand unconditional US return to JCPOA

President Joe Biden is under pressure from three sides to return the United States immediately to compliance with the Iran nuclear deal, as Washington and Tehran both remain unwilling to make the first move.

China and Russia, two of the other Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action signatories, are pushing the Biden administration for a full return to the 2015 accord under its original terms, as Iranian leaders continue to do the same.

Biden said during his election campaign that he wanted to reverse Donald Trump's 2018 decision to withdraw from the JCPOA. Trump embarked on a "maximum pressure" campaign against Iran, trying and failing to force Tehran to negotiate a new, more restrictive nuclear deal.

For Iran, Trump's withdrawal and sanctions mean it is Biden who must take the first step towards a thaw. Iran has expanded its nuclear activity since Trump's JCPOA withdrawal and its leaders are refusing to scale back the program until Biden lifts his predecessor's sanctions.

Russian officials have repeatedly urged the Trump and Biden administrations to return to the deal without any conditions. Lately, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin said China backed "the unconditional return of the United States to the JCPOA as early as possible, its resumption of compliance and elimination of all relevant sanctions."

"On this basis Iran should resume full compliance," Wang added. "China is following the situation closely and maintaining close communication with all relevant sides. We support a step-by-step and reciprocal approach and will continue to work with relevant parties and the international community to bring the JCPOA back on track and promote the political settlement of the Iranian nuclear issue."

Russia's representative to the international organizations in Vienna said US demands for Iran to make the first move would prove "fruitless." Mikhail Ulyanov wrote on Twitter "This is high time for US and Iran to make coordinated steps to restore full implementation of JCPOA."

Biden administration officials have warned that a return to the deal is not imminent, demanding that Iran curtail its nuclear expansion before talks can resume. Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif had told CNN that Tehran would be open to a step-for-step return to compliance, with the European Union (EU) acting as a referee.

Zarif said EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell could "choreograph the actions that are needed to be taken by the United States and the actions that are needed to be taken by Iran...The United States needs to come back into compliance and Iran will be ready immediately to respond. The timing is not the issue."

State Department spokesperson Ned Price, however, was lukewarm on the idea during a press conference on Wednesday, saying the administration was currently focused on consulting Congress and foreign allies on the JCPOA.

"We haven't ... had any discussions with the Iranians and I wouldn't expect we would until those initial steps go forward," Price said. "There are (many) steps in that process ... before we're reaching the point where we are going to engage directly with the Iranians and willing to entertain any sort of proposal."

 

Is OPEC ready to face tough time?

OPEC and its allies may celebrate their success in buoying world oil markets, but the coalition will soon be faced with some tough choices. Russia has already expressed fears that high prices will facilitate US shale comeback and Iran could revive exports, if it succeeds in improving relations with the United States.

Oil prices extended gains on Thursday after the OPEC alliance decided to stick to a reduced output policy. There was another blessing as crude stockpiles in the United States fell to their lowest levels, since March last year. Brent were traded at US$58.97/barrel, by 0741 GMT and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures were traded at US$56.22, after reaching its highest settlement level in a year on Wednesday.

Last month’s pledge by Saudi Arabian Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman to slash production by a further one million barrels a day has supported global markets against the latest onslaught from the pandemic.

While that relieves OPEC+ of any need to adjust its policy, it’ll need to start considering how long to restrain output -- a calculation clouded by the potential return of supply from Iran.

At the heart of the dilemma is a fundamental tension between the Saudis and their most critical partner in the alliance, Russia. While Riyadh has sought higher prices to cover government spending, Moscow will certainly try to maintain its market share.

“Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman’s doctrine that you err on the side of caution has been vindicated,” said Helima Croft, chief commodities strategist at RBC Capital Markets LLC. “We might get the contours of the arguments that will be made next month.”

OPEC and its partners have resolved this year to restore some of the 7.2 million barrels of daily output, roughly 7% of global supplies, they continue to idle after making vast production cuts when the pandemic erupted last spring.

The restrictions have proved effective, turning around an oil market that in April 2020 briefly saw prices plunge below zero in New York, and throwing a financial lifeline to producers around the world, from tiny African states to corporate giants.

Restoring the halted production, however, is turning out to be a delicate process.

OPEC+ is scheduled to revive a total of 2 million barrels a day this year; it agreed a two-month pause after the first 500,000 barrel installment in January as new virus infections menaced fuel demand. Riyadh doubled down on the curbs by announcing an extra one million-barrel cutback of its own.

The panel that oversees the alliance’s strategy, the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee, will convene online to assess the outlook. The JMMC is unlikely to recommend new policies, which will instead be tackled at the next full OPEC+ meeting in early March, according to delegates who asked not to be identified.

“The Saudi cut has bought OPEC+ some time,” said Bill Farren-Price, a director at research firm Enverus and veteran observer of the cartel. The question of what to do next will loom over their discussions on Wednesday.

Russia on the other hand fears that supporting prices too long will backfire, provoking investment in US shale oil and a flood of new supply that will negate OPEC+’s hard work. At last month’s meeting, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak proposed a production increase, and tried to dissuade the Saudi Prince from his unilateral cut.

 “It is going to be a hell of fight at the OPEC+ March meeting,” said Helge Andre Martinsen, senior oil market analyst at DNB Bank ASA. “Russia will consider it a massive failure if OPEC+ cuts starts to stimulate growth in US shale again, while at the same time they’re sitting on plenty of spare capacity.”

Russia isn’t the only member that might push for relaxing the curbs. Iraq is in the grip of an economic crisis and desperately needs the revenues that would come from higher oil sales. The United Arab Emirates is seeking to promote a benchmark oil contract that depends on plentiful output, and last year briefly broke ranks with Riyadh to open the taps.

Then there’s the complication of Iran. President Joe Biden is seeking to reactivate a nuclear agreement that would lift US sanctions on the Islamic Republic, allowing the return of almost 2 million barrels of daily output. With the end of the “maximum pressure” campaign waged by former President Donald Trump, Iranian exports have already crept higher.

Still, Secretary of State Antony Blinken says an agreement remains a “long way” off. As the two sides jockey for leverage -- and Tehran presses on with uranium enrichment -- they could be headed for a new rupture rather than reconciliation, according to RBC’s Croft. Instead of extra barrels, markets may need to brace for “a geopolitical tremor,” she cautions.

But if a deal is struck, OPEC+ will need to choose between cutting output further, or seeing their efforts to drain surplus oil stockpiles founder. It is unclear how readily Saudi Arabia would make way for the comeback of its political nemesis.

Yang Jiechi warns United States to stop meddling in Chinese internal affairs

Yang Jiechi, Director, Central Foreign Affairs Commission of the Chinese Communist Party has called Beijing and Washington to put relations back on a predictable and constructive path, saying the United States should stop meddling in China's internal affairs, Hong Kong and Tibet.

Yang Jiechi is the highest ranking Chinese leader to speak on Sino-US relations since President Joe Biden took office.

Under the Trump administration, the US relations with China plunged to their lowest point since the establishment of diplomatic ties in 1979, as both sides clashed over issues ranging from trade and technology to Hong Kong, Taiwan and Xinjiang, and the South China Sea.

While reassuring the United States that China has no intention to challenge or replace the US position in the world, Yang stressed that no force can hold back China's development.

"The United States should stop interfering in Hong Kong, Tibet, Xinjiang and other issues regarding China's territorial integrity and sovereignty," Yang said, defining these as issues concerning China's core interests and national dignity.

Speaking at an online forum organized by the National Committee on US-China Relations in Beijing, Yang said China never meddles with US internal affairs, including its elections.

Yang, whose position in the ruling Communist Party gives him more influence than even the Foreign Minister, also urged the Biden administration not to abuse the concept of national security in trade.

"We in China hope that the United States will rise above the outdated mentality of zero-sum, major-power rivalry and work with China to keep the relationship on the right track," he said.

Yang reasserted that China is prepared to work with the United States to move the relationship forward along a track of "no conflict, no confrontation, mutual respect and win-win cooperation."

The word "cooperation" appeared 24 times in his speech. He suggested that US firms could gain from an estimated US$22 trillion worth of exports to China in the coming decade.

Bangladesh rejects Al Jazeera report

Reportedly, Bangladesh has dismissed Al Jazeera news channel’s Monday’s report titled “All the Prime Minister’s Men” calling it as “false and defamatory” and a desperate “smear campaign” instigated by extremists and their allies, working in London and elsewhere.

“The report is nothing more than a misleading series of innuendos and insinuations in what is apparently a politically motivated “smear campaign” by notorious individuals associated with the Jamaat-e-Islami extremist group,” a foreign ministry statement said here today.

The Jamaat-i-Islami extremist group has been opposing the progressive and secular principles of Bangladesh since its very birth as an independent nation in 1971, it added.

The foreign ministry said Dhaka regrets that Al Jazeera had allowed itself to become an instrument for their malicious political designs aimed at destabilizing the secular democratic government of Bangladesh with a proven track record of extraordinary socio-economic development and progress.

The statement noted that the main “source” of Al Jazeera’s allegations is an alleged international criminal claimed to be a “psychopath” by Al-Jazeera itself.

“There is not a shred of evidence linking the prime minister and other state institutions of Bangladesh to this particular individual, and it is highly irresponsible for an international news channel to draw conclusions on the basis of the words of a mentally unstable person,” said the statement.

Pointing that the report’s historical account failed to even mention the horrific genocide in 1971, in which Jamaat perpetrators killed millions of Bengali civilians and raped more than two hundred thousand Bengali women, the statement said, this is the reflection of the political bias in Al Jazeera’s coverage.

It also noticed that the principal commentator of the report David Bergman was convicted by International Crimes Tribunal Bangladesh for challenging the official death toll of 1971 Liberation War.

“It is also not surprising that the report aligns with the string of anti-Bangladesh propaganda habitually orchestrated by a few convicted absconding criminals and discredited individuals patronized by Jamaat-e-Islami Bangladesh, which on certain occasions have conspired with international extremist groups and news media specially the Al Jazeera,” said the statement.

 

 

Nuclear weapons are in contradiction to our ideological views, says Zarif

If Iran wanted a nuclear weapon it would have built one already, Iran’s Foreign Minister Javad Zarif said in an interview with CNN published on Tuesday. 

"If we wanted to build a nuclear weapon we could have done it some time ago," Zarif told Christiane Amanpour. "But we decided that nuclear weapons are not, would not augment our security and are in contradiction to our, eh, ideological views. And that is why we never pursued nuclear weapons."

On Monday, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken told NBC that if Iran violated additional restrictions included in the 2015 nuclear deal it could obtain enough fissionable material for a bomb within "a matter of weeks". 

Zarif said that the uranium enriched by the Islamic Republic could immediately be scaled back to comply with the nuclear deal if the US lifts sanctions. "Eight thousand pounds of enriched uranium can go back to the previous amount in less than a day,” he claimed. 

The Biden administration, the Iranian foreign minister said, had a "limited window of opportunity" to re-enter the 2015 nuclear agreement.

"The time for the United States to come back to the nuclear agreement is not unlimited," he said. "The United States has a limited window of opportunity, because President Biden does not want to portray himself as trying to take advantage of the failed policies of the former Trump administration."

Zarif sketched out the path to overcome the impasse saying the EU foreign policy chief could "choreograph" the moves.

"There can be a mechanism to basically either synchronize it or coordinate what can be done," Zarif told CNN when asked in an interview how to bridge the gap between Washington and Tehran. Each government wants the other to resume compliance first.

Zarif noted the agreement created a Joint Commission coordinated by the European Union foreign policy chief, now Josep Borrell. Borrell "can ... sort of choreograph the actions that are needed to be taken by the United States and the actions that are needed to be taken by Iran," Zarif told CNN.

The Commission includes Iran and the six other parties to the deal that were Britain, China, France, Germany, Russia and the United States.

 

Robert Malley appointment as Iran envoy attracts mixed response

Joe Biden has named Robert Malley as special envoy for Iran. He was a key member of former President Barack Obama's team that negotiated the nuclear accord with Iran and world powers, an agreement that Donald Trump abandoned in 2018, despite strong opposition from Washington's European allies.

Malley’s appointment puts him at the forefront of Biden's efforts to find a way to deal with Iran after years of worsening relations under former President Donald Trump, who not only pulled out of a 2015 international nuclear deal with Tehran, but also re-imposed crippling economic sanctions.

When Malley's name first surfaced in news reports as a leading candidate for the post, he drew criticism from some Republican lawmakers and pro-Israel groups who expressed concern that he would be soft on Iran and tough on Israel, but a number of foreign policy veterans rushed to his defense.

It's a positive sign from Biden that he's really willing to revitalize American diplomacy. For too long, US foreign policy has been militarily very muscular, but diplomatically very weak," Sina Toossi, a senior research analyst at the National Iranian American Council (NIAC) told Middle East Eye.

Toossi said the humiliations that Iran had faced in recent years - including the US departure from the JCPOA, the killing of top Iranian general Qassem Soleimani and the assassination of nuclear scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh - make it difficult for the Iranian government to take the first step towards reviving the JCPOA.

Matt Duss, a foreign-policy adviser to Senator Bernie Sanders, lauded Biden for refusing to back down in the face of attacks against Malley's candidacy.

"Great news, there's no one better than Rob to make this policy succeed, which is why the hardliners didn't like the pick," Duss wrote on Twitter. "Also very good that Biden stood strong with this choice and disregarded their smear campaign. It won't be their last."

Khaled Elgindy, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute, also praised the announcement, calling the nomination "great news". "Malley is a highly skilled and thoughtful negotiator with extensive knowledge and an empathic disposition - literally the polar opposite of every member of the previous administration’s Middle East team of clowns," Elgindy said in a Twitter post.

Senator Tom Cotton, a staunch conservative, had led criticism against Malley, accusing him of being sympathetic to the Iranian government and having "animus towards Israel".

Malley is an American lawyer, political scientist and specialist in conflict resolution, who was the lead negotiator on the 2015 Iran nuclear deal known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). He being once again tasked to bring the United States and Iran into compliance with the Iran deal abandoned by President Trump.

Previously, Malley was President and CEO of the International Crisis Group, a Washington, DC, committed to preventing wars. Prior to holding that title, he served at the National Security Council under Barack Obama from February 2014 until January 2017.

In 2015, the Obama administration appointed Rob Malley as its "point man" on the Middle East, leading the Middle East desk of the National Security Council. In November 2015, Malley was named as President Obama's new special ISIS advisor.

Malley is considered, by some, to be an expert on the Israeli–Palestinian conflict and has written extensively on this subject advocating rapprochement with Hamas and Muslim Brotherhood. As Special Assistant to President Clinton, he was a member of the US peace team and helped organize the 2000 Camp David Summit.

Malley was criticized by supporters of Israel after co-authoring an article in the July 8, 2001 edition of The New York Review of Books arguing that the blame for the failure of the 2000 Camp David Summit should be divided among all three leaders who were present at the summit, Arafat, Barak, and Bill Clinton, not just Arafat, as was suggested by some mainstream policy analysts. Later, other scholars and former officials voiced views similar to those of Malley.

Malley and his views have come under attack from other critics, such as Martin Peretz of the magazine The New Republic, who has opined that Malley is "anti-Israel", a "rabid hater of Israel. No question about it” and that several of his articles in the New York Review of Books were "deceitful."

On the conservative webzine The American Thinker, Ed Lasky asserted that Malley "represents the next generation of anti-Israel activism."