Israel claims thwarting Iranian plot to assassinate Netanyahu and others

Iran plotted to assassinate Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, and Shin Bet Director Ronen Bar, the Shin Bet announced on Thursday, reports The Jerusalem Post.

Iranian efforts were particularly intense following the assassination of Hamas political chief Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, which most of the world has attributed to Mossad. However, Israel has made sure not to take any credit for it.

In addition, the Islamic Republic, at a somewhat more vague level, explored assassinating former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett and other top Israeli defense officials.

The plot was to use an Israeli businessman, named by Israeli media as Moti Mqman, 73 years old from Ashkelon, who spent extensive time living in Turkey and had financial dealings with both Turkish and Iranian persons to develop assassination plans in Israel.

To effectuate the plan, in April of this year, Turkish citizens Andrei Farouk Aslan and Guneid Aslan contacted the Israeli businessman to conduct financial transactions, inviting him to the Turkish city of Samandag to meet with two representatives of a rich Iranian named Edi. In May, the meeting was held.

But when he was told that Edi could not leave Iran for Turkey, he agreed to have himself smuggled by car from Turkey into Iran, where he met Edi and a member of the Iranian security establishment named Haj.

The Israeli businessman initially had requested one million dollars before undertaking any activities.

The Israeli businessman later visited Iran a second time in August and received 5,000 Euros as part of the start of his undertaking financial, logistics, and weapons-related actions for accomplishing the plot, including potentially converting a Mossad agent into a double agent.

During the second visit to Iran in August, he was smuggled again into Iran from Turkey, this time in a truck, and met again with Edi, though this time also with multiple other unidentified Iranian security officials. During this meeting, they asked him to assist with the assassination plots.

The Israeli businessman was also requested to take videos of certain Israeli sites for surveillance and intelligence gathering purposes as well as to deliver threats to Israeli citizens who Iran had contacted to carry out missions that were not complying with Iranian directives.

Also, during the second visit to Iran, the Iranians asked the businessman if he would be able to recruit Russians and Americans who could be used to kill Iranian figures opposed to the regime who live in Europe and the US.

The Shin Bet did not provide any indications that the Israeli businessman made any significant progress toward any of the terror activities. Still, it did stress that any involvement with hostile Iranians, let alone in Iranian territory itself, during a time of war, was viewed as a very serious security crime.

Further, the Shin Bet said that Iran appeared to be continuing a hard push for such terror activities, such that uncovering this one plot did not bring an end to the danger.

The businessman was indicted on Thursday.

It was unclear why the Shin Bet published the disclosure on Thursday, two days after it published the attempt by Hezbollah to assassinate former defense minister Moshe Yaalon.

In addition, it was unclear if there was any coordination between Iran and Hezbollah regarding the various plots or a delineation of who would target who.

Questioned about the timing, the Shin Bet initially responded that the cases were published based on when the indictments were being filed and when the relevant courts lifted the gag order relating to them.

The Jerusalem Post noted that the Shin Bet and law enforcement have significant control over the timing of filing indictments and requesting lifting gag orders, and as such the initial answer did not really answer the question. The Post is still waiting for further clarifications.

Questioned about whether Turkish authorities are cooperating with Israel against its citizens involved in the plot - which it has sometimes in the past - the Shin Bet had not yet responded.

Issues of cooperation between Israel and Turkish authorities are extremely sensitive, though Ankara has publicized some such cooperation in the past when Iran tried to kill Jews inside Turkey, and the Mossad helped Turkish authorities thwart the plot.

 

 

United States: Fed cuts interest rates

The US Federal Reserve has cut interest rates by 50 basis points, signaling the central bank’s confidence that its war against inflation is coming to an end. How far and how fast the Fed cuts rates moving forward remains to be seen.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell told lawmakers earlier this year that the era of near-zero interest rates is likely over, the central bank projected in June that the median interest rate would drop to 4.1% in 2025 and 3.1%in 2026.

The Fed further lowered its median rate forecast Wednesday to 3.4% next year and 2.9% in 2026, as well as in the long run, according to new economic projections.

“This would only be the first cut of a rate-cutting cycle. The size and frequency of future cuts will give us a better understanding of whether the Fed believes they are behind, or ahead of, ‘the curve,’” said Jonathan Ernest, an economics professor at Case Western Reserve University.

The jobless rate ticked up to 4.3% in July and clocked at 4.2% last month. That’s relatively low by historical standards but still a sign of labor market “cooling” the Fed had been watching for as it waited to cut rates.

While some economists believe the Fed could have started cutting rates in July, the next few months are critical as the central bank attempts to bring the economy in for a “soft landing,” maintaining its dual mandate of low inflation and maximum employment as it brings down rates.

 

Recognition of Palestine State

Members of the Ministerial Committee assigned by the Joint Arab-Islamic Extraordinary Summit on developments in the Gaza Strip held a coordination meeting in Amman on Wednesday. The meeting was chaired by Prince Faisal bin Farhan, Saudi minister of foreign affairs and head of the committee.

The ministerial meeting was aimed to coordinate joint Arab and Islamic efforts during the 79th session of the United Nations General Assembly, which will be held in New York this month.

The meeting addressed several key topics, including efforts to stop Israeli aggression on the Gaza Strip, the dangerous escalation in the occupied West Bank, the ongoing humanitarian catastrophe, and ensuring the delivery of humanitarian aid to all affected areas.

The ministers discussed ways to strengthen Arab and Islamic efforts during the General Assembly to support the recognition of the Palestinian state, ensure the fulfillment of the rights of the Palestinian people, and encourage security and peace in the region and the world. 

The meeting discussed joint efforts to take the necessary steps to implement the two-state solution by establishing a Palestinian state based on the June 04, 1967 lines, with East Jerusalem as its capital, in accordance with the Arab Peace Initiative and relevant international initiatives.

The meeting was attended by Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs and Expatriates of Jordan Ayman Safadi; Prime Minister of Palestine and Minister of Foreign Affairs Dr. Mohammad Mustafa; Minister of Foreign Affairs of Bahrain Dr. Abdullatif Al-Zayani; Minister of Foreign Affairs of Türkiye Hakan Fidan; Minister of State for Foreign Affairs of Qatar Sultan bin Saad Al Muraikhi; Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs and Immigration of Egypt Ambassador Nabil Habash; Secretary General of the Arab League Ahmed Aboul Gheit and Secretary General of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation Hissein Brahim Taha.

Saudi Arabia’s Ambassador to Jordan Naif Al-Sudairi, Director General of the Office of Saudi Foreign Minister, Abdulrahman AlDawood, and the Counsellor at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs Dr. Manal Radwan also attended the meeting.

Israel accused for pager explosions

Several news outlets confirmed late Tuesday what was widely suspected, Israel's military and intelligence services were behind the explosions of pagers recently purchased by the Lebanese political party and militant group Hezbollah.

The explosions, reportedly set off earlier Tuesday by a message that appeared as if it was from Hezbollah's leadership, killed at least 11 people—including an 8-year-old girl—and wounded thousands more.

Citing both an unnamed former Israeli official with knowledge of the operation and an anonymous U.S. official, Axios reported that Israeli intelligence services planned to use the booby-trapped pagers it managed to 'plant' in Hezbollah's ranks as a surprise opening blow in an all-out war to try to cripple Hezbollah."

"But in recent days, Israeli leaders became concerned that Hezbollah might discover the pagers," the outlet continued. "Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, his top ministers, and the heads of the Israel Defense Forces and the intelligence agencies decided to use the system now rather than take the risk of it being detected by Hezbollah”, a US official said.

A spokesperson for the US State Department publicly denied that the Biden administration was involved in the attack or aware of the operation in advance.

Heidi Matthews, an associate professor at the Osgoode Hall Law School of York University, wrote Tuesday that each explosion constitutes an indiscriminate attack, pointing to video footage of a pager detonating in a crowded market.

"Under these circumstances," Matthews added, "this is an act of terror."

The New York Times reported Tuesday that Hezbollah ordered thousands of pagers from the Taiwanese manufacturer Gold Apollo, but the company denied making the devices.

According to the Times, which cited unnamed officials, Israeli operatives tampered with the devices they reached Lebanon, planting in them as little as one to two ounces of explosive material and a switch that could be triggered remotely to detonate the explosives.

Heightening fears of a broader conflict, Hezbollah pledged Tuesday to retaliate against Israel over the attack, which reportedly injured Iran's ambassador to Lebanon as well as Hezbollah fighters and medics.

The Guardian's Andrew Roth noted Tuesday that just a day before the coordinated sabotage, Amos Hochstein, a senior adviser to US President Joe Biden, was in Israel urging Benjamin Netanyahu and other senior Israeli officials against an escalation in Lebanon.

Netanyahu has repeatedly sabotaged cease-fire negotiations with hardline demands in recent weeks as the Israeli military—heavily armed by the US—continues to assail the Gaza Strip.

"While US officials have said that the basis for peace along Israel's northern boundary with Lebanon would come through a cease-fire in Gaza, that agreement has proven elusive and appears no closer to fruition," Roth wrote Tuesday.

 "The White House had hoped that a period of quiet around Israel would allow for cease-fire negotiators to achieve a breakthrough, as intermediaries shuttle between Hamas and Israel to thread the needle of both sides' complex demands regarding a hostage exchange and territorial claims."

"That period of quiet has now been shattered with a breathtaking act of subterfuge and Hezbollah has vowed to retaliate," Roth added.

 

Hezbollah members injured in mysterious explosions

Hundreds of members of Lebanon's Hezbollah were injured due to small explosions that struck their communication devices in various regions across the country, which a party official described as "the largest security breach to date."

Iranian news agency Mehr reported that the Iranian ambassador to Lebanon, Mojtaba Amani, was injured in an explosion involving a wireless communication device.

Security sources told Reuters that over 1,000 injuries have been reported across Lebanon due to the device explosions.

Activists shared dozens of images and videos showing injured young men in the streets amid widespread panic among residents caused by the mysterious blasts targeting mobile communication devices used by Hezbollah members.

Reports of injuries came from southern Beirut, the Bekaa Valley, and southern Lebanon, with conflicting information regarding the number of casualties, which are believed to be in the hundreds.

Lebanese security sources expressed suspicion that the incident resulted from an Israeli infiltration that caused the devices' batteries to explode.

A Reuters journalist witnessed ten Hezbollah members bleeding from their injuries in southern Beirut.

A Lebanese security source stated that Israel accessed Hezbollah's communication system and caused the explosions, adding that calls were made for party members to discard their devices. 

China Prompts Oil Price Crash

The marked shift in oil sentiment recently has been to a great deal prompted by a widespread concern of Chinese demand peaking this or next year as LNG displaces diesel in long-haul trucking, EV sales overtaking conventional cars since July and rail expansion eating into jet fuel recovery.

Chinese refinery runs have been declining for five straight months, with the National Bureau of Statistics reporting throughput rates at 13.91 million b/d in August amidst a widespread decline in Shandong teapot runs, as low as 55% last month. 

Meanwhile, Asian refiners’ margins slumped to the lowest seasonal levels since 2020 as high inventories of diesel and gasoline become an increasingly worrying factor as peak summer demand tapers off.

China’s clampdown on tax evasion is aggravating the pressure on refiners after a Shandong court ruled two refiners run by state-owned firm Sinochem, the Huaxing and Zhenghe plants totalling 220,000 b/d in capacity, fully bankrupt. 

What caused Baltimore Bridge disaster?

Nearly six months after the late-March Dali Bridge allision disaster outside the Port of Baltimore a just released report from the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) Office of Marine Safety presents some newly found insights, reported by Seatrade Maritime News.

Deep within the NTSB report, it is revealed that a loose cable connection discovered during inspections, conducted during April, might have been the cause of power blackouts aboard Dali that led to the disaster which followed in the early morning hours of March 26.

Its latest brief provides insights from ongoing work by a newly formed “Engineering Group”, which is composed of owners Grace Ocean Private Limited, ship managers Synergy Marine Group, shipbuilder HD Hyundai Heavy Industries (HHI), classification society Nippon Kaiji Kyokai (Class NK), flag-state Maritime & Port Authority of Singapore, and India, which is described as a “substantially interested State”.

The 41-page report exhaustively details the weeks of tests on the ship’s electrical system that were conducted in the weeks post-allision mainly by engineers from HHI, under close observation from NTSB personnel. The wording extracted from the NTSB report here, describing activity deep within the vessel electrical switchboard array, is highly technical, with emphasis added by Seatrade Maritime News:

HHI engineers found that one of the cable cores that connects the DB1X-1 relay of the GPT1 panel to the control line was loose. The DB1X-1 relay is for bus blackout detection. Two ends of the DB1X-1 relay are nodes 381 and 382. Node 381 is connected to node 304 of the control line and node 382 is connected to node 305 of the control line…HHI engineers found that the cable was loosely connected at node 381. That condition can create an open circuit and interrupt the 110VDC power to the HR1 UVT Coil, which would trigger an under voltage release trip of HR1. This would result in a 440V blackout without leaving any records in the HiMAP-T sensor….

HHI engineers advised that if the cable is loosely connected, the UVT control voltage might not maintain a steady value of 110VDC. If this condition is not met, the HR1 will open, which would lead to a Low Voltage (440V) Switchboard blackout. If the transformers are set to an automatic switch mode, LR2/HR2 is automatically closed and TR2 is connected when HR1/LR1 is open.

These findings will no doubt be considered as the NTSB works towards a final report on the Dali allision.

In an April interview with Seatrade Maritime News, Holland & Knight lawyer Benjamin Allen, a veteran of the NTSB and now a Partner in H & K’s Washington, DC office focusing on transportation accident litigation, had suggested that a one-year timeline might be a reasonable expectation for the NTSB to issue its final report on the Dali incident.