Kashmir conflict after Pahalgam attack

The most recent conflict between India and Pakistan in the Kashmir region has once again brought the area to the brink of a deep crisis, especially since both nations are armed with nuclear weapons.

India has upped the ante by blaming Pakistan for the tragedy, without providing credible evidence of this country’s alleged involvement in the brutal slaying of tourists.

The recent terrorist attack in Pahalgam in the Indian-administered Kashmir, which resulted in the tragic demise of numerous tourists, has not only intensified India's animosity towards Pakistan but has also garnered global scrutiny regarding the prospects of an extensive military conflict.

Since gaining independence in 1947, Kashmir has been split between India and Pakistan, with each country asserting ownership over the entire region while controlling distinct areas. This division has resulted in ongoing tensions that have escalated into conflict over time.

On Tuesday, at least 26 people were killed by suspected rebels at a resort in Pahalgam, making this the deadliest such attack in a quarter-century in Kashmir. A statement issued in the name of The Resistance Front (TRF), which is said to be part of the Lashkar-e-Taiba armed group, based in Pakistan, claimed responsibility.

The aftermath has prompted notable diplomatic pushback. India has declared its exit from the Indus Waters Treaty, an important water-sharing pact established by the World Bank in 1960, while Pakistan countered by suspending a significant canal irrigation initiative and prohibiting Indian flights from its airspace. 

Pakistani officials have dismissed India's allegations, with Defense Minister Khawaja Asif asserting that "blaming Pakistan won’t address" the issue of Kashmir’s disputed status. 

The Indian government has admitted failing to protect tourists at Pahalgam, Mallikarjum Kharge, president of the All India Congress Committee, said during a speech.

He added that the government confirmed during an all-party meeting on Thursday that a security lapse allowed the attack to happen.

Kharge, who heads the opposition in the upper house of India’s parliament, said a three-phase security plan was in place but ultimately failed.

Amid this volatile situation, Iran has taken on the role of a mediator, understanding the complex geopolitics of the subcontinent and choosing not to take sides.

Iran’s diplomatic initiative is underscored by its historical balancing act between India and Pakistan, maintaining strong ties with both while advocating for regional stability. 

On Friday, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi wrote on his X social account, “India and Pakistan are brotherly neighbors of Iran, enjoying relations rooted in centuries-old cultural and civilizational ties,” adding that “Tehran stands ready to use its good offices in Islamabad and New Delhi to forge greater understanding at this difficult time”.

Given the nuclear-armed status of both India and Pakistan, Iran’s mediation effort represents a crucial attempt to de-escalate tensions and prevent further destabilization in South Asia.

Tehran’s stance reflects its broader regional strategy to promote peace through dialogue and resist external powers’ divisive influences in the Kashmir dispute.

Pakistan said on Saturday it is “fully prepared to cooperate with any neutral investigators” following the Pahalgam attack.

In an editorial published on Saturday, Pakistan’s Dawn news outlet said, “It is time again to give diplomacy a chance as neither Pakistan nor India can afford war.”

The editorial added, “These are dangerous times in the subcontinent, and there is a need for both Pakistan and India to show restraint, and handle the post-Pahalgam developments with sense.

 

Trump strengthening US hegemony in MENA

There is no denying to the fact that the economy of the United States has been marred by rising borrowing, weakening greenback and above all being an Israeli accomplice in genocide in Gaza. The US has attained the status of the largest oil producers, but remains uncompetitive in the global markets. Many countries want to bid farewell to trading in Greenback are busy in developing alternative currency and settlement infrastructure.

Trump’s efforts to strengthen US hegemony in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) were a major part of his foreign policy between 2017 and 2021. Here's a quick breakdown of how he tried to do it:

Maximum Pressure on Iran
Trump pulled the US out of the 2015 Iran nuclear deal (JCPOA) and re-imposed heavy sanctions on Iran. The goal was to weaken Iran economically and politically, cutting its influence across Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and Yemen — areas where Iran was building a lot of regional clout.

Strengthening Ties with Traditional Allies
Trump doubled down on relationships with countries like Saudi Arabia, Israel, and the UAE. His administration sold billions of dollars in arms to Saudi Arabia and the UAE and strongly supported Israel's position on issues like Jerusalem. He went to the extent of recognizing Jerusalem as Israel’s capital.

Abraham Accords
This was one of the biggest moves, brokering normalization agreements between Israel and several Arab countries (UAE, Bahrain, Sudan, and Morocco). These deals were meant to realign regional dynamics, isolate Iran further, and show that US-brokered deals could reshape alliances.

Troop Realignment
While Trump talked a lot about "ending endless wars," he didn’t fully withdraw US military presence from the region. Instead, he shifted troops around. He reduced forces in Iraq and Syria but sent more to Saudi Arabia after the 2019 attacks on its oil facilities.

Economic Leverage
Trump used sanctions and financial pressure as weapons — not just against Iran, but also on groups like Hezbollah and even countries like Turkey when disagreements happened.

Counterterrorism Operations
His administration continued (and sometimes escalated) drone strikes and Special Forces raids against ISIS and al-Qaeda targets, claiming to keep US "dominance" over counterterrorism in MENA.

In short, Trump tried to reassert US dominance not by large new military invasions but through economic warfare, diplomacy favoring allies, selective military moves, and isolating adversaries. It was more of transactional and short-term approach to strengthen US hegemony rather than a big ideological one.

 

Iran: Blast at Bandar Abbas kills 18 people

A huge blast probably caused by the explosion of chemical materials killed at least 18 people and injured more than 700 on Saturday at Iran's biggest port, Bandar Abbas, Iranian state media reported.

The explosion, which hit the Shahid Rajaee section of the port, occurred as Iran began a third round of nuclear talks with the United States in Oman.

Hossein Zafari, a spokesperson for Iran's crisis management organization, appeared to blame the explosion on poor storage of chemicals in containers at Shahid Rajaee.

"The cause of the explosion was the chemicals inside the containers," he told Iran's ILNA news agency.

"Previously, the Director General of Crisis Management had given warnings to this port during their visits and had pointed out the possibility of danger," Zafari said.

However, an Iranian government spokesperson said that although chemicals had likely caused the blast, it was not yet possible to determine the exact reason.

President Masoud Pezeshkian ordered an investigation of the incident and sent to the site his interior minister, who said efforts were continuing to extinguish the fire and prevent it from spreading to other areas.

Iran's official news channels aired footage of a vast black and orange cloud of smoke billowing up above the port in the aftermath of the blast.

Located near the strategic Strait of Hormoz, Shahid Rajaee port is Iran’s biggest container hub, handling a majority of the country’s container goods.

The blast was heard in Qeshm, an island 16 miles south of the port.

State TV earlier reported that poor handling of flammable materials was a "contributing factor" to the explosion.

A local crisis management official told state TV that the blast took place after several containers stored at the port exploded.

 

 

PSX witnesses volatility due to rising tension between India and Pakistan

Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) remained volatile throughout the week ended Friday 25, 2025, as escalating geopolitical tensions post the Pahalgam attack in Indian Occupied Kashmir and India’s subsequent threats to revoke the Indus Water Treaty with Pakistan further undermined investor sentiment. The KSE-100 index closed the week at 115,469 points, losing 1,846 points, down 1.57%WoW.

Positive news stemmed from the IMF's World Economic Outlook for April 2025, lowering Pakistan's inflation forecast for FY25 to 5.1%YoY and 7.7%YoY for FY26. On the flip side, growth projection for FY25 was revised slightly downward to 2.7%, from 2.8% previously.

The news reports indicate that authorities have reached a preliminary agreement with two foreign commercial banks for a US$1 billion loan facility, at interest rate of 7.6%.

Finance Minister met with representatives from credit rating agency Moody's in an effort to improve Pakistan's credit rating, following a recent upgrade by Fitch.

PKR depreciated 0.09%WoW against the greenback.

Foreign exchange reserves held by State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) decreased by US$367 million to US$10.2 billion as of April 18, 2025.

Other major news flow during the week included: 1) Finance Minister met with IMF chief, 2) Government urged to fully deregulate wheat supply chain, 3) Cabinet recommended to abolish FED on property transfer, 4) Kuwait announced to join Pakistan offshore bids and 5) Pakistan missed wheat production target.

Vanaspati & Allied Industries, Synthetic & Rayon, and Textile Spinning were amongst the top performers, while Refinery, Jute, and Transport were amongst the laggards.

Major selling was recorded by Banks/ DFI with a net sell of US$4.0 million. Organizations and Foreigners absorbed most of the selling with a net buy of US$6.9.

Top performing scrips of the week were: NATF, FCEPL, MUREB, ATLH, and SNGP, while laggards included: BOP, PIBTL, EPCL, AGL, and HUMNL.

According to Pakistan’s leading brokerage house, AKD Securities lower oil prices and favorable standing among exporting peers amid reciprocal tariffs will support Pakistan’s economy and strengthen the outlook for a return to single-digit interest rates in CY25.

The benchmark index is anticipated to sustain its upward trajectory, primarily driven by strong earnings in Fertilizers, sustained ROEs in Banks, and improving cash flows of E&Ps and OMCs, benefiting from falling interest rates and economic stability. Top pick of the brokerage house includes, OGDC, PPL, PSO, FFC, ENGROH, MEBL, MCB, HBL, FCCL, INDU, ILP and SYS.

Iran-US to resume talks in Oman on Saturday

Negotiations between Iran and the United States over Tehran's rapidly advancing nuclear program are set to resume on Saturday in the Omani capital Muscat, where technical experts from both sides will attempt to iron out the details of a potential agreement, reports Euronews.

The discussions aim to curb Iran's nuclear activities in exchange for lifting economic sanctions the US has imposed on the country over nearly half a century.

US President Donald Trump has repeatedly warned he may order airstrikes against Iran's nuclear facilities if a deal is not achieved, while Iranian officials increasingly hint they could pursue nuclear weapons capability with their growing stockpile of near-weapons-grade uranium.

Last weekend's talks in Rome provided a neutral ground for Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and US Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff.

However, Rome's period of mourning following the death on Monday of Pope Francis, whose funeral will take place Saturday, and Iranian complaints about media attention in Italy may have influenced the change of venue.

"As you can see, unlike the first round of talks where the presence of journalists was limited...this time in Rome, Italy, that kind of control hasn't been applied," said Iranian state television journalist Hosnieh Sadat Shobeiri.

The talks in Muscat come as Iran shores up support from China and Russia. Araghchi met with officials in Moscow last week and in Beijing earlier this week.

On Thursday, representatives from China, Russia and Iran met with the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the UN nuclear watchdog.

Although the IAEA did not release details, China's Xinhua news agency reported the three nations believe the IAEA has "the necessary potential and expertise" to contribute to the process, while emphasizing the need for diplomatic solutions.

China reaffirmed Iran's "right to the peaceful use of nuclear energy."

The Trump administration has kept European powers France, Germany and the United Kingdom — co-signatories to the 2015 nuclear deal — out of its direct talks with Iran, mirroring its strategy in negotiations with Russia over the Ukraine conflict.

Meanwhile, Araghchi suggested further discussions with the European nations, writing on X, "The ball is now in the E3's court...How we act at this critical junction is likely to define the foreseeable future."

Two Iranian diplomats, Majid Takht-e Ravanchi and Kazem Gharibabadi, will reportedly lead Tehran's technical team. The American delegation will be headed by Michael Anton, a political strategist and strong Trump supporter, although he lacks direct nuclear policy experience.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio reiterated in a recent podcast that Iran must halt uranium enrichment entirely if it wants a civil nuclear program.

"If Iran wants a civil nuclear program, they can have one just like many other countries can have one, and that is they import enriched material," Rubio said.

While Witkoff initially suggested Tehran could enrich uranium to 3.67%, he later aligned with Rubio's position, insisting all enrichment must stop. Iran remains adamant that domestic enrichment is non-negotiable.

Complicating matters further is Israel's stance. Israel, which has targeted Iranian nuclear facilities in the past, has not ruled out future strikes. Israeli forces this week conducted drills preparing for possible Iranian missile attacks, according to broadcaster KAN.

"Our security services are on high alert given past instances of attempted sabotage and assassination operations designed to provoke a legitimate response," Araghchi posted on X on Wednesday.

 

 

Prince Faisal talks to Indian and Pakistani counterparts

Saudi Minister of Foreign Affairs Prince Faisal bin Farhan held separate phone calls with his counterparts in Pakistan and India on Friday. He discussed bilateral relations and the evolving regional situation amid rising tensions between the two South Asian nations, reports Saudi Gazette.

The diplomatic outreach followed a deadly militant attack on Tuesday near Pahalgam in the Indian-administered part of Kashmir’s scenic Pesarang Valley.

The assault claimed the lives of at least 26 people and triggered a wave of accusations and retaliatory measures from both sides.

Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar said in a post on social media that he discussed the Pahalgam attack and its cross-border connections with Prince Faisal.

Pakistani Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar also posted on X, stating that the two ministers agreed to maintain consultations and coordination on the unfolding regional developments.

The Kashmir attack, which India has blamed on Pakistan-based militants, has sharply escalated tensions between the two nuclear-armed neighbors. In response, India suspended a key water-sharing treaty, closed a major land border crossing, and halted airspace and trade agreements with Pakistan.

Islamabad, in turn, warned of potential military action, further raising fears of a broader conflict.

Trump to sell Saudi Arabia US$100 billion arms

According to Reuters, US President Donald Trump is poised to offer Saudi Arabia an arms package worth well over US$100 billion. This will be formally announced during his visit to the kingdom in May.

The offered package comes after the administration of former president Joe Biden unsuccessfully tried to finalize a defence pact with Riyadh, as part of a broad deal that envisioned Saudi Arabia normalizing ties with Israel.

The Biden proposal offered access to more advanced US weaponry, in return for halting Chinese arms purchases and restricting Beijing's investment in the country. Reuters could not establish if the Trump administration's proposal includes similar requirements.

A US Defense official said, "Our defence relationship with the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is stronger than ever under President Trump's leadership. Maintaining our security cooperation remains an important component of this partnership, and we will continue to work with Saudi Arabia to address their defence needs".

In his first term, Trump celebrated weapons sales to Saudi Arabia as good for US jobs.

Lockheed Martin Corp could supply a range of advanced weapons systems, including C-130 transport aircraft. Lockheed would also supply missiles and radars.

RTX Corp, formerly known as Raytheon Technologies, is also expected to play a significant role in the package, which will include supplies from other major US defence contractors, such as Boeing, Northrop Grumman Corp, and General Atomics.

The kingdom first requested information about General Atomics' drones in 2018, they said. Over the past 12 months, a deal for US$20 billion of General Atomics' MQ-9B SeaGuardian-style drones and other aircraft came into focus.

Several executives from defence companies are considering travelling to the region, as a part of the delegation.

The US has long supplied Saudi Arabia with weapons. In 2017, Trump proposed approximately US$110 billion of sales to the kingdom.

As of 2018, only US$14.5 billion of sales had been initiated and Congress began to question the deals, in light of the murder of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi.

In 2021, under Biden, Congress imposed a ban on sales of offensive weapons to Saudi Arabia over the Khashoggi killing, and to pressure the kingdom to wind down its Yemen war, which had inflicted heavy civilian casualties.

Under US law, major international weapons deals must be reviewed by members of Congress before they are finalized.

The Biden administration began to soften its stance on Saudi Arabia in 2022, after Russia's invasion of Ukraine impacted global oil supplies.

The ban on offensive weapons sales was lifted in 2024, as Washington worked more closely with Riyadh in the aftermath of Hamas' October 07 attack, to devise a plan for post-war Gaza.

A potential deal for Lockheed's F-35 jets, which the kingdom has been reportedly interested in for years, is expected to be discussed, three of the sources said, while downplaying the chances for an F-35 deal being signed during the trip.

The United States guarantees that its close ally Israel receives more advanced American weapons than Arab states, giving it what is labeled a "qualitative military edge" (QME) over its neighbors.