Positive news stemmed from the IMF's World Economic Outlook
for April 2025, lowering Pakistan's inflation forecast for FY25 to 5.1%YoY and
7.7%YoY for FY26. On the flip side, growth projection for FY25 was revised
slightly downward to 2.7%, from 2.8% previously.
The news reports indicate that authorities have reached a
preliminary agreement with two foreign commercial banks for a US$1 billion loan
facility, at interest rate of 7.6%.
Finance Minister met with representatives from credit rating
agency Moody's in an effort to improve Pakistan's credit rating, following a
recent upgrade by Fitch.
PKR depreciated 0.09%WoW against the greenback.
Foreign exchange reserves held by State Bank of Pakistan (SBP)
decreased by US$367 million to US$10.2 billion as of April 18, 2025.
Other major news flow during the week included: 1) Finance
Minister met with IMF chief, 2) Government urged to fully deregulate wheat
supply chain, 3) Cabinet recommended to abolish FED on property transfer, 4)
Kuwait announced to join Pakistan offshore bids and 5) Pakistan missed wheat
production target.
Vanaspati & Allied Industries, Synthetic & Rayon,
and Textile Spinning were amongst the top performers, while Refinery, Jute, and
Transport were amongst the laggards.
Major selling was recorded by Banks/ DFI with a net sell of
US$4.0 million. Organizations and Foreigners absorbed most of the selling with
a net buy of US$6.9.
Top performing scrips of the week were: NATF, FCEPL, MUREB,
ATLH, and SNGP, while laggards included: BOP, PIBTL, EPCL, AGL, and HUMNL.
According to Pakistan’s leading brokerage house, AKD
Securities lower oil prices and favorable standing among exporting peers amid
reciprocal tariffs will support Pakistan’s economy and strengthen the outlook
for a return to single-digit interest rates in CY25.
The benchmark index is anticipated to sustain its upward
trajectory, primarily driven by strong earnings in Fertilizers, sustained ROEs
in Banks, and improving cash flows of E&Ps and OMCs, benefiting from
falling interest rates and economic stability. Top pick of the brokerage house includes,
OGDC, PPL, PSO, FFC, ENGROH, MEBL, MCB, HBL, FCCL, INDU, ILP and SYS.
