Can US sanctions on Iran and OPEC production cuts save oil prices from falling?

According to Reuters, oil prices extended gains on Thursday on the prospect of tighter supply after Washington imposed further sanctions to curb Iranian oil trade and as some OPEC producers pledged more output cuts to compensate for pumping above agreed quotas.

Brent crude futures rose to US$66.40 a barrel by 0321 GMT, and WTI traded at US$63.13 a barrel. Both benchmarks settled 2% higher on Wednesday at their highest levels since April 3 and are on track for their first weekly rise in three. Thursday is the last settlement day of the week ahead of the Good Friday and Easter holidays

"I think the rally has a couple of factors behind it - shorts covering, the weaker Greenback which makes crude oil cheaper to buy, and the US pressure on Iran," IG market analyst Tony Sycamore said.

He added that WTI could rise back to US$67 a barrel but may struggle with further gains.

"If we assume that US growth is going to be flat at best for the next two quarters and Chinese GDP is set to slow to somewhere between the 3%-4% band, it's not good for crude oil," Sycamore said.

President Donald Trump's administration issued new sanctions targeting Iran's oil exports on Wednesday, including against a China-based "teapot" oil refinery, ramping up pressure on Tehran amid talks on the country's escalating nuclear program.

Adding to supply concerns, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) said on Wednesday it had received updated plans for Iraq, Kazakhstan and other countries to make further output cuts to compensate for pumping above quotas.

"These factors certainly could have affected sentiment – would argue that Iranian production (is) not significant and that OPEC quotas more often breached than observed, but both factors fed into the more bullish tone," said Michael McCarthy, CEO of online investment platform Moomoo.

Big draws on US gasoline and distillates stocks and a smaller-than-expected gain in weekly crude inventories also bolstered markets, he said.

"Much of the recent selling pressure in global crude markets related to fears of an imminent flood of US oil, but the drop in refining suggests that bottlenecks to supply may be emerging," McCarthy said.

Still, OPEC, the International Energy Agency and several banks, including Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan, cut forecasts on oil prices and demand growth this week as US tariffs and retaliation from other countries threw global trade into disarray.

 

China urges Vietnam to resist bullying

Chinese President Xi Jinping has called on Vietnam to oppose "unilateral bullying" to upkeep a global system of free trade — though he stopped short of naming the United States, reports Saudi Gazette.

It comes as Xi is on a so-called "charm offensive" trip across South East Asia, which will also see him visit Malaysia and Cambodia.

Though, the trip was long-planned, it has taken on heightened significance in the wake of a mounting trade war between the US and China. Vietnam was facing US tariffs of up to 46% before the Trump administration issued a 90-day pause last week.

US President Donald Trump called Xi's meeting with Vietnamese leaders a ploy to figure out how to "screw the United States of America".

According to state media outlet Xinhua, Xi told Vietnam's Communist Party Secretary-General To Lam to "jointly oppose unilateral bullying".

"We must strengthen strategic resolve... and uphold the stability of the global free trade system as well as industrial and supply chains," he said.

Stephen Olson, a former US trade negotiator, said Xi's comments were "a very shrewd tactical move".

"While Trump seems determined to blow up the trade system, Xi is positioning China as the defender of rules-based trade, while painting the US as a reckless rogue nation," he added.

Speaking to reporters in the Oval office on Monday, Trump said he does not "blame" China or Vietnam but alleged that they were focused on how to harm the US.

"That's a lovely meeting. Meeting like, trying to figure out, how do we screw the United States of America?" said Trump.

The world's two largest economies are locked in an escalating trade battle, with the Trump administration putting tariffs of 145% on most Chinese imports earlier this month. Beijing later responded with its own 125% tariffs on American products coming into China.

On Saturday, a US customs notice revealed smartphones, computers and some other electronic devices would be excluded from the 125% tariff on goods entering the country from China. But Trump later chimed in on social media saying there was no exemption for these products and called such reports about this notice false. Instead, he said that "they are just moving to a different tariff 'bucket'".

Xi arrived in Hanoi on Monday, where he was welcomed by well wishes waving Chinese and Vietnamese flags. He then met top Vietnamese officials including the country's Secretary-General and Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh.

Earlier on Tuesday, Xi visited the Ho Chi Minh Mausoleum to take part in a wreath laying ceremony at the resting place of the former Vietnamese founder and Communist leader.

Despite Xi's visit, Vietnam will be careful to "manage the perception that it is colluding with China against the United States, as the US is too important a partner to put aside," said Susannah Patton, Director of the Southeast Asia Program at the Lowy Institute think-tank.

"In many ways, China is an economic competitor as well as an economic partner for South East Asian economies," she added.

Xi arrived in Malaysia on Tuesday. He is expected to meet the country's King, as well as its Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim.

It comes as Malaysian mobile data service company, U Mobile said it will roll out the country's second 5G network by using infrastructure technology from China's Huawei and ZTE.

Ms Patton expects Xi to continue portraying the US as "a partner which is unreliable and protectionist".

Meanwhile, he is likely to "portray China in stark contrast as a partner that is there", she added.

"Now is really a golden opportunity for China to score that narrative win. I think this is how Xi's visit to Vietnam, Cambodia and Malaysia will be seen."

 

How high could gold price go?

Gold prices have been on an upward trajectory in 2025, recently reaching a record high of US$3,244.60 per ounce. Now a question is being asked, how high could gold price go. Several key factors are contributing to this surge, these include:

Geopolitical Tensions

The introduction of sweeping tariffs by President Donald Trump, especially those targeting China with rates up to 145%, created upheaval in global financial markets. These policies have led investors to question the reliability of traditional safe assets like US Treasuries and the dollar, prompting a shift towards gold as a more stable alternative.

Economic Uncertainty

Concerns about a potential US recession have intensified, with Goldman Sachs estimating a 45% probability of such an event within the next year. This economic uncertainty enhances gold’s appeal as a hedge against downturns, contributing to its rising demand and price.

Purchases by Central Banks

Central banks worldwide are increasing their gold reserves, partly as a strategy to reduce reliance on the US dollar. This trend of de-dollarization supports higher gold prices, as nations seek to diversify their holdings amid shifting global economic dynamics.

Currency Depreciation

Persistent inflation is eroding the value of paper currencies, prompting investors to turn to gold as a means of preserving purchasing power. As the US dollar weakens, gold's role as a hedge against inflation becomes increasingly significant.

Safe-Haven Demand

The volatility in global markets, exacerbated by trade tensions and economic uncertainties, has led investors to seek refuge in gold. Its status as a safe-haven asset during turbulent times further drives its demand and price upward.

Way Forward

Analysts remain bullish on gold prospects, with forecasts suggesting prices could touch US$3,500 by June end 2025, US$ 4,000 by end December 2025 and US$5,000 by end December 2026. However, a point to remember is that if the trade war intensifies, the price may rise at a faster pace.

A more disturbing fact is that confidence of people around the world in the US administration – as a trustworthy friend and US$ as a dependable currency is eroding. The talk about an alternate currency to replace US dollar is getting louder.

Turkey to host Black Sea security meeting

A high-level meeting focused on Black Sea security is being held on Tuesday and Wednesday at the Naval Forces Command headquarters in Ankara, the Turkish Defense Ministry said on Sunday, Xinhua reported.

The meeting aims at discussing military planning measures to preserve peace in the region, particularly in the event of a potential ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine, the ministry said in a statement.

Military representatives from various countries are expected to attend, with discussions centered on the maritime dimension of maintaining stability in the Black Sea. The list of participating countries was not disclosed.

The meeting builds on earlier cooperation efforts, including the establishment of the Mine Countermeasures Black Sea Task Group in July 2024.

The initiative, led by Turkey in coordination with Romania and Bulgaria, was launched to address the threat of drifting sea mines that emerged following the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

On Saturday, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan met with his Russian counterpart, Sergey Lavrov, and discussed a range of issues, including the Ukraine conflict and the safety of navigation in the Black Sea.
 

 

 

Israel a US accomplice in attacks on Iran

Israel's desire to potentially destroy Iranian nuclear facilities stems from a mix of strategic, security, and geopolitical concerns. Here’s a breakdown of the likely reasons:

National Security Threat

Israel sees a nuclear-armed Iran as an existential threat. Iran has a long history of hostile rhetoric against Israel, including statements from some Iranian leaders calling for the end of the Israeli state. A nuclear weapon in Iranian hands could shift the balance of power in the region and severely limit Israel’s freedom to act militarily.

Regional Power Balance

Israel is currently the only country in the Middle East widely believed to possess nuclear weapons (though it has never confirmed this officially). If Iran were to develop its own nuclear arsenal, it would undermine Israel’s strategic military edge in the region and potentially spark a regional arms race.

Deterrence Concerns

Even if Iran doesn’t use a nuclear weapon, the mere possession could embolden Iranian proxies like Hezbollah in Lebanon or militias in Syria and Iraq. Israel worries that Iran’s nuclear capability could act as a protective umbrella for more aggressive conventional or proxy actions.

Lack of Trust in Diplomacy

Israel has been critical of the Iran nuclear deal (JCPOA), arguing that it does not permanently prevent Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon and that Iran could "wait out" the deal and then resume enrichment. They also believe Iran has cheated or could cheat on its obligations.

Precedent of Preemptive Strikes

Israel has a history of preemptively striking nuclear programs in the region:

Iraq’s Osirak reactor in 1981

Syria’s Al-Kibar facility in 2007

These actions reflect a doctrine that Israel will not allow hostile states to acquire nuclear weapons.

Killing of Iranian nuclear scientists by Israel

The killing of Iranian nuclear scientists—widely attributed to Israel—has been a significant and controversial element in the long-running tensions between Iran and Israel, especially regarding Iran’s nuclear program. Here's a breakdown of key events and context:

Overview of the Killings

Since around 2010, several Iranian nuclear scientists have been assassinated under mysterious or targeted circumstances. These attacks are believed by many experts and intelligence sources to be part of an Israeli covert campaign to slow or sabotage Iran’s nuclear program. Following is the list of major Israeli attacks on Iranian facilities:

Masoud Alimohammadi (Jan 2010)

Physics professor was killed in a bomb blast in Tehran. Iran blamed the US and Israel, though there was little publicly available evidence.

Majid Shahriari (Nov 2010)

Nuclear engineer was assassinated in a car bombing.

Simultaneously, another scientist, Fereydoon Abbasi, was targeted but survived.

Dariush Rezaeinejad (July 2011)

Shot by gunmen on a motorcycle outside his home.

Mostafa Ahmadi Roshan (Jan 2012)

Deputy Director of the Natanz uranium enrichment facility was killed in a magnetic bomb attack on his car.

Mohsen Fakhrizadeh (Nov 2020)

Senior figure in Iran’s nuclear program, seen as the “father” of Iran’s nuclear weapons project was killed in a highly sophisticated ambush, allegedly involving remote-controlled weapons and possibly AI. Israel was widely suspected; Netanyahu had named Fakhrizadeh in a 2018 speech as central to Iran’s nuclear ambitions.

Israeli Stance

Israel has not officially claimed responsibility for the assassinations but has hinted at a policy of proactive defense against Iranian nuclear capabilities. The Israeli intelligence agency Mossad is believed to be behind the operations, according to various reports and leaked information.

Strategic Purpose

Delay Nuclear Development:

Targeting key figures slows down Iran’s nuclear progress.

Deterrence:

Sends a message to Iran and other adversaries.

Psychological Warfare:

Undermines morale and trust within Iran’s scientific and intelligence community.

Iran’s Response

Iran has blamed Israel and sometimes the US and vowed revenge. It has strengthened security around its scientists and facilities. Iran has continued pushing forward its nuclear program, including uranium enrichment.

International Reactions

The killings have drawn mixed international response. Some Western countries condemned the assassinations as extrajudicial killings. Others remained silent or vaguely supportive, seeing Iran’s nuclear ambitions as a security threat.

US-Iran complete first round of nuclear talks with little movement

Envoys from the United States and Iran completed the first round of talks regarding Tehran’s developing nuclear program with little movement, but indicated the discussions will continue next week, reports The Hill.

Middle East envoy Steve Wiktoff and Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi “briefly spoke in the presence of the Omani foreign minister” toward the end of the meeting, according to Iranian state TV.

The two sides spoke for more than two hours, just outside of Muscat, the capital of Oman. The meeting was mediated by Omani foreign minister Badr Al-Busaidy, the Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei confirmed Saturday morning in a post on social platform X.

Baghaei said the two delegations were seated in separate rooms, and they would relay their messages through Al-Busaidy, according to the spokesperson.

The talks between the two countries come as President Trump has repeatedly pushed to reach a new nuclear deal with Iran. Trump in 2018 notably pulled out of a previous agreement that was brokered by former President Obama.

The White House, however, has emphasized that a fresh deal must include Tehran disposing of its nuclear arsenal.

If an agreement is not reached, the president said, military action against the country might ensue. The warning comes after the US imposed new sanctions on five entities and one individual based in Iran earlier this week for their support of those overseeing the nuclear program.

“I want Iran to be a wonderful, great, happy country, but they can’t have a nuclear weapon,” Trump told reporters Friday aboard Air Force One.

Before discussions with the US delegation, Araghchi and Al-Busaidy met in Muscat, Oman. Iran’s top diplomat expressed gratitude to Oman for hosting the talks and shared the “key points and positions of the Islamic Republic of Iran with his Omani counterpart to be conveyed to the other side.” 

Ahead of the high-stakes talks, Witkoff said the administration’s “red line” with Iran is preventing the Islamic nation from churning out a nuclear weapon. 

Witkoff, who Trump has delegated the lead negotiator in ceasefire talks between Russia and Ukraine, said the administration’s starting demand is for Tehran to nix its nuclear program. The same position is also held by Israel, but the envoy said there’s some room for compromise to strike a deal. 

“I think our position begins with dismantlement of your program. That is our position today,” Witkoff told The Wall Street Journal in an interview published Friday. “That doesn’t mean, by the way, that at the margin we’re not going to find other ways to find compromise between the two countries.”

“Where our red line will be, there can’t be weaponization of your nuclear capability,” he said.

Witkoff added that if a deal with Tehran is forged, there needs to be a robust verification process to ensure that Iran is not working on producing a nuclear bomb. He told The Journal that the Saturday talks are about “trust building.”  

“It is about talking about why it is so important for us to get to a deal, not the exact terms of the deal,” he said.

 

 

Iran seeks fair and honorable agreement with United States

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Saturday that Tehran’s goal is to achieve a “fair and honorable agreement” in indirect negotiations with the United States, currently taking place in Muscat, Oman, reports Reuters.

Speaking to reporters after meeting with Omani Foreign Minister Badr al-Busaidi, Araghchi emphasized that Iran is entering the talks “from a position of equality,” according to Iran’s Tasnim News Agency.

“Our intention is to achieve a fair agreement, based on mutual respect,” he said, adding that a “preliminary understanding” is possible if Washington adopts a similar approach.

“If the other side has come to the table with the same mindset, then there is room for a constructive negotiating path.”

Araghchi praised Oman’s “responsible stance” on regional issues and described Muscat’s role as host of the negotiations as “a clear sign of its positive diplomatic approach.”

Omani Foreign Minister Busaidi welcomed Araghchi and called relations between the two countries “exceptional,” expressing appreciation for Iran’s decision to hold talks in Oman.

According to Iran’s official IRNA news agency, Araghchi began consultations with Busaidi ahead of Saturday evening’s indirect negotiations with the American delegation. Busaidi is also expected to meet US lead negotiator Steve Witkoff, President Donald Trump’s special envoy for the Middle East.

The negotiations follow Trump’s invitation in March to Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei for direct talks. At a joint press conference with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu last week, Trump announced that “direct negotiations” would begin Saturday.

The US and its allies accuse Iran of attempting to build nuclear weapons — a claim Tehran denies, insisting its nuclear program is peaceful and focused on energy production.

Israeli media reported that Trump’s announcement of direct talks surprised Israeli officials, who have repeatedly advocated for military action against Iran’s nuclear facilities.