Uzbekistan and Afghanistan sign agreements

Uzbek Prime Minister Abdulla Aripov arrived in Afghanistan on Saturday, marking the highest-level visit by a foreign official since the Taliban returned to power three years ago.

Aripov, leading a delegation, was welcomed at Kabul airport by Abdul Salam Hanafi, the Taliban’s deputy prime minister, and other senior government officials, according to a statement from Afghanistan's Ministry of Industry and Commerce.

During his visit, Aripov met with Taliban leaders to discuss bilateral relations, with a focus on strengthening trade and business ties between the two countries. The talks resulted in the signing of five trade and investment agreements.

Additionally, the officials are set to inaugurate an exhibition of Uzbek products in Afghanistan.

Earlier in the week, an Uzbek delegation engaged in meetings with Afghanistan's Ministry of Commerce. On Friday, Afghan media reported a trilateral meeting among the economy ministers of Afghanistan, Uzbekistan, and Azerbaijan in Kabul to explore ways to enhance trade relations.

Uzbekistan and Afghanistan, which share a 144-kilometer (89-mile) border, have seen a recent improvement in relations.

The Taliban, who seized power in Afghanistan in August 2021 as US and NATO troops withdrew, have yet to be recognized by the international community due to concerns over their restrictive policies.

 

Bangladesh: Breaking free from Indian octopus

We are pleased to share with our readers a letter by Mahmudur Rahman published in South Asia Journal. He has talked in the least number of words about Indian hegemony in the region,

In the later years of my life, I completed a PhD thesis titled “The Rise of Indian Hegemony in South Asia and the Security of Small States.” This work was finalized in mid-2022, a period marked by the authoritarian rule of Sheikh Hasina in Bangladesh, who maintained a firm grip over a population of 180 million. In brief, the conclusions of my research were as follows:

• As soon as British colonial rule in the subcontinent ended in 1947, India embarked on a relentless quest to establish complete hegemonic control over the region.

• Despite being relatively weaker both militarily and economically, Pakistan emerged as the primary regional barrier to India’s ambitions. Beyond the region, China also posed a formidable challenge to India’s hegemonic aspirations.

• Indian hegemony has been thwarted in Sri Lanka, Nepal, Afghanistan, and the Maldives.

• India has only managed to establish hegemony over Bhutan and Bangladesh in the region. In the case of Bhutan, this dominance has been maintained through a treaty signed in 1949, allowing Delhi to exercise absolute authority to this day. Consequently, Bhutan has been prevented from establishing official diplomatic relations with any of the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council—the United States, China, Russia, the United Kingdom, and France. In contrast, India’s dominance over Bangladesh was achieved without any formal hegemonic treaty. Instead, India installed a brutally oppressive puppet government in 2009.

In the great revolution of August, the courageous students and citizens of Bangladesh, through unforgettable sacrifices and acts of heroism, have successfully overthrown the puppet regime installed by India. The murderous fascist Sheikh Hasina has fled to her master, India, to escape the public’s wrath. In a cruel twist of history, the very daughters of the fallen dictator Sheikh Mujib, who had come from Delhi in 1981 to execute India’s mission in Bangladesh, have now been humiliatingly forced to return to Delhi after forty-three years. The people of Bangladesh have, at long last, awakened. However, in the meantime, Hasina, a lackey of Delhi, left behind a trail of destruction, dismantling every institution of the state.

The judiciary has been so severely compromised that it no longer retains any semblance of legitimacy in the eyes of the public. Back in 2010, I authored an editorial titled

“A Farce in the Name of Independent Justice,” which resulted in my prolonged detention and torture by the Detective Branch and Rapid Action Battalion. The young heroes of today’s revolution may not even be aware of these incidents.

Due to Sheikh Hasina’s ruthless use of the police as her personal death squad, this essential state institution has become the object of extreme public hatred. Sixteen years of disgraceful sycophancy from the media have left the so-called fourth estate of the state devoid of any credibility.

The civil administration has been debilitated by pervasive partisanship and corruption, while the nation has been plunged into insurmountable debt under the guise of fake development.

My sympathy lies with Dr. Yunus’s government, which has inherited this lamentable legacy. None of the statistics produced by the fallen government of Bangladesh can be considered credible.

Since 2018, I have repeatedly communicated with the World Bank, ADB, and IMF, bringing to their attention Sheikh Hasina’s corruption and the manipulation of statistics. However, my warnings have been consistently disregarded. Whether the officials in these institutions in Bangladesh were themselves complicit in Hasina’s corruption remains unknown, but how else could they have blindly accepted such false statistics year after year? Surely, they are not all fools.

The critical question now emerges, will India quietly endure this catastrophe?

The fall and flight of Sheikh Hasina in a bloodless revolution is not merely a diplomatic setback for Delhi; it represents the most devastating strategic defeat for India’s hegemonic ambitions in South Asia.

Even the humiliating defeat of the Indian military in Sri Lanka in 1989 is surpassed by the revolution in Bangladesh. The most remarkable achievement of the young revolutionaries lies in the fact that they accomplished this without any external support.

For fifty-three years, we have been paying for the assistance taken from India during the liberation war of 1971. While every political faction in the country, whether left or right, alongside the media and so-called intellectuals, has persistently invoked the memory of 1971, they have simultaneously exploited us economically and dominated our internal politics.

This time, no external power can claim any credit. The United States, despite its rhetoric on democracy and human rights, ultimately deferred to India’s stance on Bangladesh.

The people of Bangladesh have liberated themselves from the shackles of fascism through extraordinary courage and sacrifice, as exemplified by Abu Saeed’s martyrdom. We owe no debt of gratitude to anyone.

Internationally, Dr. Yunus is widely recognized for his close ties with the United States. However, neither he nor any other civil society figure played a pivotal role in this revolution.

Notably, I cannot recall any instance where Dr. Yunus has taken a decisive stance against Indian hegemony in Bangladesh, nor has he publicly condemned Hasina’s enforced disappearances, extrajudicial killings, and human rights abuses. What he may have done behind the scenes is unknown to the public.

Indian Nobel laureate Amartya Sen has always been vocal against Modi’s Hindutva and misrule. Nevertheless, we want to hope that Dr. Yunus will now take a stand against Indian hegemony. As the primary beneficiary of the people’s revolution, he bears a responsibility to repay the debt he owes to the people of Bangladesh.

Although more than a week has passed since the formation of the new government, we have yet to hear any statements from those in power regarding the lopsided agreements with India.

This piece concludes with a call for the formulation of a strategy, in unison with the people, to free Bangladesh from the clutches of the Indian octopus. Long live the revolution.

Bangladesh Zindabad.

 

Activists to defy Israeli blockade of Gaza

Peace activists from several countries are setting out on a converted trawler to defy an Israeli blockade and deliver humanitarian aid to Palestinians in the Gaza Strip.

"The purpose of this mission is to send a message that civil society is not OK with what's happening in Gaza," said Fellipe Lopes, the Portuguese media coordinator of the Freedom Flotilla Coalition on board the ship Handala during a stopover in Malta.

It will be a trip fraught with danger. Another coalition ship on a similar mission to Gaza in 2010 was stopped and boarded by Israeli troops, and nine activists died. Other ships were similarly stopped and boarded, without loss of life.

"We expect to encounter resistance throughout our mission," said Australian activist Michael Coleman.

"Ours is not an illegal activity in any shape or form. The International Court of Justice has asked them to grant unfettered access to aid into Gaza and I implore them to let us and other aids through immediately," he said.

The Handala was visited in Malta by 78-year-old retired US Army Colonel and diplomat Ann Wright, who was on board another coalition ship boarded by Israeli troops in 2010, in the incident in which nine activists died.

"These people are very brave, because we don't know what's going to happen. If the Israelis stop them, we know it'll be brutal," Wright said.

The brightly colored Handala carries activists from Italy, France, Norway, Australia, the Netherlands, Syria and a number of Palestinians. It has made several port calls around Scandinavia and the Mediterranean to raise awareness about the situation in Gaza.

Its hull carries slogans reading: "Free Palestine," "Gaza you are not alone" and "Stop the Genocide," while its humanitarian aid cargo consists mostly of medicines.

The trip along the Eastern Mediterranean to Gaza will take a week but organizers said they might stop over in another harbor on the way.

PSX Index Posts 0.67%WoW Decline

The benchmark index of Pakistan Stock Exchange showed varying trends throughout the week, ultimately closing with a modest 0.67%WoW loss at 78,045 points. However, market participation showed signs of recovery, with the average daily traded volume rising to 367.68 million share as against 345.10 million shares a week ago, up 6.5%WoW.

Meanwhile, the government reports progress in negotiations with China regarding the restructuring of power base loans, which is expected to support a reduction in tariffs.

The MSCI, in its August 2024 review transferred SAZEW to its Frontier Market Index, while adding six new stocks to MSCI’s Small Cap index.

July 2024 remittances remained robust, totaling US$3.0 billion, with Saudi Arabia being the highest contributor.

Foreign exchange reserves held by the central bank rose by US$119 million on a weekly basis to US$9.27 billion as of August 09, 2024.

In July 2024 Auto industry sales were up 30%YoY to 10,356 units, additionally Passenger cars & LCV’s sales were reported at 8,589 units, up 69%YoY.

The MS and HSD fuel prices have decreased during the week. Concurrently, Petroleum products imports witnessed a decrease of 27%MoM, reported at US$499 million for July 2024.

On the currency front, PKR largely remained stable against the greenback throughout the week to close at 278.54/US$ on Friday.

Other major news flow during the week included: 1) Refining sector sets massive furnace oil export target, 2) External debt to GDP ratio hits 6-year low, 3) Internet firewall could cost economy US$300 million, 4) No Cabinet approval to urea import proposal and 5) Five mineral projects picked for investment.

According to AKD Securities Property, Textile Weaving, Jute, Textile spinning & Exchange Traded Funds were amongst the best performers, while Vanaspati & Allied Industries, Automobile Assemblers, Woollen, Leasing Companies & Refinery were amongst the laggards.

Major selling was recorded by Companies with a net sell of US$4.37 million. Individuals absorbed most of the selling with a net buy of US$7.18 million.

Top performing scrips of the week were: YOUW, JVDC, NPL, GHGL and MARI, while laggards included: KAPCO, NBP, PGLC, NRL and THALL.

Going forward, the market is expected to continue positive momentum as global market concerns settle and macroeconomic indicators remain favorable.

The anticipated IMF Executive Board approval during the month is likely to support the momentum.

Sectors benefiting from monetary easing and structural reforms would remain in the limelight. However, modest economic recovery would keep the upside in check for the cyclicals.

 

 

Ukraine: Alternative route for wheat shipment

As Russia blocked Ukraine’s Black Sea ports, grain traders turned to river, rail and road routes to keep crop exports flowing. At present crucial deep-sea ports are again shipping out hefty amounts. Yet major merchant Nibulon plans to keep exporting large volumes via much more expensive river routes.

While river cargoes barely turn a profit for the company, its CEO says it’s important to have a ready-to-use alternative in case Russian attacks cripple Odesa’s ports again. He also expects it to have the knock-on effect of discouraging Russian strikes on Black Sea terminals as it makes such attacks less debilitating to the export industry.

“The very fact that we have alternatives provides protection for Odesa ports,” Nibulon CEO Andriy Vadaturskyy said in an interview. That’s “because Russia will understand that its spending for missile strikes will not deliver the effect they look for and the shipments will not stop.”

Ukraine is a key grain supplier, sending staples like wheat and corn around the world, most of which traditionally goes via the Black Sea. Using whatever export routes are available since the war began has helped to keep a lid on global prices and bring in vital income for Kyiv.

The country’s deep-sea ports have continually been attacked by Russia. River operations that send smaller ships to destinations such as Europe or Egypt, or to Romania for transshipment, have also been attacked. A missile hit a Louis Dreyfus facility in Odesa on Wednesday, though the company said there should be no material disruptions to terminal operations.

Half of Nibulon’s shipments currently go through the Black Sea and half via the Danube River, where export costs are about $6-$7 a ton higher.

Nibulon’s Danube routes are currently operating at about a third of capacity, Vadaturskyy said. The unused capacity could be crucial if traders need to suddenly switch more volume away from Black Sea terminals.

“We should not think that exports through Odesa ports are guaranteed,” the CEO said. “This is the right time to prepare for any challenges and have alternatives when the economy suffers.”

Iran: Pezeshkian Cabinet as Viewed by West

We are pleased to share with readers an article written by Haleh Esfandiari and released by Wilson Center. The Center says the views represented in this piece are those of the author and do not express the official position of the Wilson Center. 

Following is the text of the article

Iranian President, Masoud Pezeshkian finally selected a cabinet that has disappointed voters and led to Javad Zarif’s resignation. Zarif criticized the lack of young and diverse representation, casting doubt on the future of Pezeshkian’s reformist agenda.

Pezeshkian submitted to parliament the names of his 19 cabinet members on Sunday, August 11, 2024. The list proved a disappointment for many who had voted for him and also to his principal advisor, Javad Zarif.

Observers surmise that Pezeshkian had succumbed to the preferences of the Supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, commanders of the IRGC, and the conservative wing in parliament.

Zarif's resignation

Pezeshkian had appointed Zarif as his vice president for strategy, suggesting he would play the principal role in shaping Pezeshkian’s program. Yet Zarif stepped down just 24 hours after Pezeshkian announced his new cabinet. As the reformist newspaper Etemad wrote, the news of the resignation of Zarif exploded like a bomb.

This unexpected and intriguing, perhaps significant turn of events requires explanation.

Zarif is a former foreign minister and lead negotiator of the now-inoperative JCPOA nuclear agreement with the United States and the European powers. During the campaign, he was always at Pezeshkian’s side and served as his special adviser. Zarif, with his reputation as a moderate who favors better relations with the US and the Europeans, remains popular with moderate voters and reformists in the country. He almost certainly helped win votes for Pezeshkian, who was not a familiar figure among voters.

Once elected, Pezeshkian appointed Zarif, the head of a special advisory council, to suggest to the president potential cabinet appointees. The council, after vetting a number of possible candidates, presented its recommendations to the president-elect. But when Pezeshkian announced his choices for cabinet offices, only a limited number were from the list Zarif’s council had recommended.

Hence Zarif’s resignation. His role as vice president had lasted only 11 days.

On Instagram, Zarif explained his resignation in terms of the constellation of the new cabinet. He objected to seven members of the new cabinet. The cabinet, he wrote, did not include more members of Iran’s new, younger generation; it did not include, as he had hoped and the council had recommended, women and representatives of minority communities. He was “ashamed,” he wrote, that he had not adequately succeeded in the task he had set for himself.

In a later conciliatory comment, Zarif said he had the greatest affection for President Pezeshkian but felt that his presence would have been a liability for the new president. 

Pezeshkian, responding to his critics and the disappointment among the voters, said only that they should wait to see how his cabinet performs in practice.

The Cabinet

During the campaign, Pezeshkian said he hoped to see better relations with the US and European countries and to see sanctions lifted as a means to improve the economy. That raised hopes he would appoint a moderate cabinet inclined to reforms. The cabinet has turned out to be a mixed bag.

Abbas Araghchi, his nominee as foreign minister, is a foreign ministry careerist and is seen as a moderate. He served as Iran’s ambassador to Japan and Finland and deputy foreign minister. He was also Zarif’s close ally as deputy chief negotiator in the JCPOA negotiations. If confirmed by parliament, Araghchi will bring experience to the conduct of foreign policy, a field in which Pezeshkian has none. 

There is one woman in the cabinet: Farzaneh Sadegh, an engineer nominated to be Minister of Roads and Urban Development. If confirmed, she will be the second woman in the history of the Islamic Republic to serve as a minister. The first woman was Marzieh Vahid Dastjerdi, appointed by President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad as minister of health. 

In two other key positions (which are both also subject to the Supreme Leader’s approval), the president has named Esmail Khatib, a cleric, to continue as the Minister of Intelligence. Khatib has close connections to the intelligence community and is associated with the suppression of dissent and the widespread arrest of journalists, intellectuals, and political critics. He is a man trusted by the Supreme Leader and was earlier head of his personal protection organization in Qum.

The Interior Minister will be Eskandar Momeni, the deputy chief of police in the outgoing cabinet. Momeni was deputy chief of police under President Raissi. The new president has also kept Mohammad Eslami as chief of Iran’s civilian nuclear program—a post whose holder, we can assume, is determined by the Supreme Leader. Eslami was sanctioned by the UN in 2008 for being engaged in sensitive nuclear activities for the development of nuclear weapons delivery systems when he was head of a defense industry research institute. But during the campaign, he said he would work to revive the JCPOA.

Challenges ahead

Pezeshkian may not have had a free hand in selecting the key members of his cabinet. But the problems he faces are numerous and will require intelligence and political savvy. Will he be able to reign in the police in their harassment of women who don’t observe the hijab?

Can he persuade the security agencies (and the Supreme Leader) to allow the people more freedom?

He inherits an economy where inflation is soaring, incomes for many are inadequate to make ends meet, and widespread discontent prevails. 

Will he be able to make good on his campaign promise to reach out to the West, to ease sanctions, and improve economic conditions?

The Gaza war, in which Iran’s proxies—Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza, and proxies in Syria, Iraq, and Lebanon—are involved and the stand-off with Israel and the US after the assassination of Hamas leader Haniyeh presents the new president with a thicket of problems. It remains to be seen whether he has the skills to address them.

 

 

 

 

Ilhan Omar Wins Democratic Party Nomination

Firebrand US Representative Ilhan Omar clinched the Democratic Party nomination for a fourth term on Tuesday, in a victory for progressives after losses in party primaries by two fellow members of the group nicknamed "The Squad."

Omar defeated former Minneapolis city council member Don Samuels in Minnesota's 5th District Democratic primary.

With 216 of 217 precincts reporting results, Omar was leading Samuels, according to Minnesota Secretary of State tallies.

At the end of a spirited campaign, Samuels acknowledged Omar's victory in a telephone interview, but said the results showed "there are still people who are feeling left out of the congresswoman's leadership."

Omar's robust campaign fundraising likely played a significant role in her victory. She collected US$6.8 million since the 2022 election, more than double the typical House member's reelection campaign and well over Samuels' US$1.4 million, according to federal campaign disclosures.

"Because Omar had a tough primary last cycle (the 2022 election), she was prepared this time around with a strong ground game and excellent fundraising numbers that far outpaced Samuels," said Ryan Dawkins, a political science professor at Minnesota's Carleton College.

The Minnesota lawmaker, one of four progressive women whose 2018 election created The Squad, is expected to easily win the November 05 election. Control of Congress will be up for grabs as Vice President Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump seek the presidency.

Fellow Squad members Representatives Jamaal Bowman of New York and Cori Bush of Missouri lost their party primaries over the past few months, facing opponents who had won substantial support from the pro-Israel fundraising group AIPAC.

Bowman, Bush and Omar had all expressed opposition to President Joe Biden's support for Israel in its war against Hamas militants in Gaza, but AIPAC as of mid-July had given just US$25 to Samuels' campaign, according to data collected by Open Secrets. Bowman and Bush's losses will whittle away The Squad's ranks from its peak of nine members.

They also reflect a Democratic Party that has backed away from some of its furthest-left causes, like calls for providing government-backed healthcare for all Americans or talk of defunding police, which came to the fore during the 2020 Democratic presidential primary before Biden secured the nomination.

The absence of a significant 2024 Democratic primary before Biden ended his candidacy last month, passing the torch to Harris, meant that further-left candidates such as independent Senator Bernie Sanders did not drive the debate.

"I understood going into this election cycle that the progressive movement was going to be burdened because of the absence of somebody carrying the banner on the center stage of American politics," said Alan Minsky, executive director of Progressive Democrats of America.

Nevertheless, he argued that progressive priorities, such as making prescription drugs and childcare more affordable still resonate with voters.

Omar and some fellow Squad members voted against some Biden priorities including the US$ one trillion infrastructure bill signed into law in 2021. They mainly objected because it did not move in tandem with a bill to expand social programs, including childcare, as had been promised.

Unlike the hardline Republican House Freedom Caucus, whose roughly three dozen members have repeatedly blocked their own party's priorities, members of The Squad have generally voted in step with fellow Democrats on legislation.

Omar, who arrived in the United States as a refugee from Somalia, describes her politics as "visionary, bold and loud" and says she has delivered millions of dollars in federal funds for community development in her district.

She argued she has paid close attention to her district's large immigrant population - including Somalis - in part by probing whether large banks discriminate against Muslim Americans.

She has faced criticism for antisemitic remarks, with House Republicans in 2023 voting to remove her from the Foreign Affairs Committee over a 2019 social media post suggesting that Israel's supporters were motivated by money rather than principle. Omar has apologized for that post.

Jamaica-born Samuels, a former toy developer and leader of a non-profit organization, had positioned himself as a pragmatic alternative, saying he agreed with many of Omar's policy stances, but not what he called her divisive governing style.