Thursday, 4 July 2024

Russian to cut oil exports from Black Sea

Russian oil producers Rosneft and Lukoil will sharply cut oil exports from the Black Sea port of Novorossiisk in July as the companies resume operations at their refineries, reports Reuters

Combined Novorossiisk oil loadings by Rosneft and Lukoil in July will fall by some 220,000 barrels per day (bpd) as compared to last month.

Last week Russian government decided to continue with unrestricted gasoline exports in July, extending the waiver for a partial ban on overseas fuel sales, as Russia's domestic oil plants produce enough oil products to meet peak seasonal demand despite a spate of Ukrainian drone attacks on refineries.

Rosneft oil exports from Novorossiisk are set to fall to 0.62 million metric tons in July from 1.06 million tons in June, while its Tuapse refinery is set to resume crude runs this month.

Lukoil's exports from the port will fall to 0.19 million tons in July from 0.58 million tons last month.

Lukoil restarted a key piece of equipment for oil processing, the CDU-6 crude distillation unit, at its NORSI refinery, Russia's fourth-largest, following a drone attack in March.

Rosneft and Lukoil did not reply to Reuters requests for comments.

Novorossiisk total oil loadings in July were set at 1.8 million tons, down from 2.9 million tons in June.

Russia's overall oil exports and transit from its western ports in July are expected to decline from June amid higher refinery runs and Moscow's pledge to stick to OPEC Plus output cuts.

Biden prioritizing politics over fair policy

Twelve US government employees who resigned in protest of President Biden’s handling of Israel’s war against Hamas in the Gaza Strip are accusing the administration of prioritizing politics over fair policymaking. 

The dozen signatories on a joint statement represent a wide spectrum of government staff, including former employees of the State Department, Department of Interior and White House, as well as former military officers. They resigned in protest at different times over the nine months of Israel’s war against Hamas following the US-designated terrorist group’s October 07 attack. 

“Both our individual and common experiences demonstrate an Administration that has prioritized politics over just and fair policymaking; profit over national security; falsehoods over facts; directives over debate; ideology over experience, and special interest over the equal enforcement of the law,” they wrote.

“The impact of these injustices has resulted in tens of thousands of innocent Palestinian lives taken, reflecting a clear picture to the world of whose lives matter, and whose lives simply do not to United States policy makers. As members of the United States Government, each of us witnessed this abrogation of American values, leading us to resign.”

The twelve wrote that they have grave concerns with current US policy towards the crisis in Gaza, and US policies and practices towards Palestine and Israel more broadly. 

The statement lays out six policy recommendations for the administration to implement, calling for the US to faithfully execute the law related to American weapons deliveries to Israel. 

“The Administration is currently willfully violating multiple US laws and attempting to deny or distort facts, use loopholes, or manipulate processes to ensure a continuous flow of lethal weapons to Israel,” the statement reads.

The signatories call for the US to exert all leverage to bring fighting to a halt, secure the release of Israeli hostages from Hamas and the release of Palestinian minors in Israeli jails; surge humanitarian support to Gaza; support of self-determination for the Palestinian people and “an end to military occupation and settlements, including in the West Bank and East Jerusalem.”

 

Wednesday, 3 July 2024

Pezeshkian or Jalili: To be decided on Friday

Iranians are set to head to the polls on Friday, July 5, to choose their next president in a runoff election. Competition is tight between reformist Masoud Pezeshkian and conservative Saeed Jalili who respectively gained 10.41 million and 9.47 million votes during the preliminary round on June 28.

The incoming president will be stepping into the role left vacant by the untimely passing of President Ebrahim Raisi. Raisi tragically lost his life in a helicopter crash on May 19, with more than a year remaining in his term, and was anticipated to secure a second term in 2025.

With a campaign ban taking effect in the early hours of Thursday, we have decided to compare and contrast the plans, perspectives, and campaigns of the two candidates competing in the run-off election in this article.

Pezeshkian’s entrance into the presidential fray was sudden and unexpected. In his own words, he was not expecting to get qualified to run for president, as he had initially failed to get vetted as a nominee by the Guardian Council during the 2023 parliamentary elections.

In many of his debates and addresses to the Iranian populace, the reformist candidate said he needed to “consult experts” on economic and societal issues and refrained from detailing his agenda. While it is in no way bad to seek counsel from experts, some people had hoped that they would hear in more detail how Pezeshkian was planning to govern.

Jalili though, has campaigned for presidency multiple times in the past. He managed to outline more well-received plans and policies during debates. His remarks, however, have sometimes been deemed as too vague or too specific for the general public to understand. The fact that Jalili was allegedly a key contributor to the late President Raisi’s administration, also helped him hold a better grasp of the current issues in the country.

Pezeshkian’s entourage and key supporters are both a strong point and a point of weakness for him due to the reformists’ long and eventful time in office. Though, Pezeshkian has claimed that he does not align with any political party, any figure or former official ever seen besides him during his campaign has been a reformist or centrist.

Mohammad Javad Zarif, the former foreign minister who signed the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in 2015, is one of the figures who’s garnered both support and disdain for Pezeshkian. Some like Zarif for having commenced close dialogue with the United States for the first time in decades, and some reprimand him for naively compromising on Iran’s nuclear capabilities without making sure that Washington would uphold its commitments.

As for Jalili, there is no denying that his entourage and associates have been a significant vulnerability for him. Some of his representatives ended up making extremely controversial and uncalculated remarks on TV, making it easier for reformists to stigmatize Jalili as an inflexible and hard figure.

Pezeshkian is seen as a critic of President Raisi’s government. He and his advisors have repeatedly accused the Raisi administration of not caring about the termination of sanctions, saying that a reformist comeback in return would ensure the “normalization” of ties with the West.

That’s while most analysts agree that Raisi’s only difference with his centrist predecessor Hassan Rouhani was that he did not believe in tying the country’s existence to the sanctions removal, and sought dialogue with not only the West but also countries outside the Western hemisphere.

Jalili’s potential administration is considered to be a continuation of martyr Raisi’s time in office. Jalili thinks Iran should make the West “regret” its shunning of the JCPOA. He has not explained how his potential administration plans to do that, but his remarks have been praised by some who believe there is no point in expecting sincerity from the West, as such an approach has failed Iran in the past.

Pezeshkian’s views on the economy seem to be more liberal than his opponent. He believes energy prices should increase and the government must have less control over the market.

Jalili on the other hand, is in favor of maintaining and increasing energy subsidies. He also believes that the government must incorporate public participation in the economy, but says the government must still act as a supervising body.

Courtesy: Tehran Times

 

Iran exporting oil to seventeen countries

Iran is currently exporting crude oil to 17 countries, including some in Europe. The country will not face any problem in exporting oil no matter who comes to power in the United States, said Javad Oji, Iranian oil minister.

Speaking at a ceremony on Tuesday, he stated that good investment has been made in the past three years in the oil industry.

Iran produced 2.2 million barrels of oil per day (bpd) at the outset of the administration of the late President Ebrahim Raisi, but the current oil production rate is about 3.570 million bpd, showing a considerable hike, Oji underlined.

He went on to say that Iran’s oil exports rose from 182 million barrels in 2019 to 565 million barrels last year.

In addition, the value of the export of oil and gas condensates and other oil and petrochemical products rose from US$10.8 billion in 2019 to US$36 billion last year, registering a 3.5 times growth, the oil minister added.

Iran has risen to become the fourth largest oil exporter within the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) due to a surge in oil production and sales.

The report cited the rise in Chinese oil demand and the expansion of Iran's oil tanker fleet as the main factors contributing to the surge in Iran's oil exports.

 

Tuesday, 2 July 2024

Putin in Kazakhstan to attend SCO meeting

Russian President Vladimir Putin arrived in Kazakhstan on Wednesday for regional security and defence talks as well as a series of bilateral meetings, including with Chinese and Turkish leaders.

The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), a forum established by China and Russia in 2001 as a guardian of security in the Eurasia region, will meet for their summit on July 3-4 in Kazakhstan's capital city of Astana.

"The leaders of the SCO member countries will discuss the current state and prospects for further deepening multifaceted cooperation within the organization and improving its activities," the Kremlin said in a statement on its website.

While the meeting is likely to be dominated by Russia and China, leaders or representatives of Azerbaijan, Belarus, India, Iran, Kazakhstan, Qatar, Kyrgyzstan, China, Mongolia, the United Arab Emirates, Pakistan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Turkey and Uzbekistan, are also expected to attend.

United Nation Secretary General Antonio Guterres, is also expected, Russian agencies said on Tuesday.

On Tuesday, Russia said Putin will hold series of bilateral talks, including with Chinese President Xi Jinping and Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan.

India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who is expected in Moscow this month, will not attend and the country will be represented by Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar.

At last year's virtual summit, the group issued a statement critical of what it said was the negative impact of "unilateral and unlimited expansion of global missile defence systems by certain countries or groups of countries", without directly referring to NATO's expansion and Western military assistance to Ukraine.

Can Germany ease Israel-Hezbollah tension?

German Federal Intelligence Service (BND) Deputy Director Ole Diehl met with Hezbollah's second-in-command, Deputy Secretary-General Sheikh Naim Qassem, on Saturday evening, the Hezbollah-affiliated Lebanese news organization Al Akhkbar reported on Tuesday.

The meeting in Beirut was the second time the two officials met, as in January, the two met to discuss the Iranian proxy's attacks on the Jewish state.

According to the sources, “the session's atmosphere was positive.”

The discussion reportedly centered on the rising tensions between the Lebanese terror organization and Israel and how a full-scale war could be avoided.

The German envoy reportedly presented the Israeli desire to return the displaced residents of the North to their homes and that it would wage war on Hezbollah if necessary in order to accomplish this goal.

On Monday, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said that the residents of northern Israel "don’t feel safe to go to their homes" and that Israel had "lost sovereignty" over the northern portion of the country due to Hezbollah's attacks.

Diehl reportedly added that a mistake made by either party could result in a war between the two sides.

In response, Al Akhkbar reported that Qassem said any discussion of Hezbollah ceasing attacks on northern Israel was linked to the achievement of a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip.

Qassem's response echoed his comments to Diehl in January, where the Hezbollah deputy secretary-general reportedly "refused to discuss anything before Israel stops the war on Gaza. He urged Germany to put pressure on Israel to stop its aggression."

 

US comments on Iranian presidential election

It was but anticipated that United States would criticize the presidential election being held in Iran. The readers must keep in mind: 1) United States believes that Iran’s emergence as regional power is eroding its hegemony in the Middle East and 2) Israel considers Iran its worst enemy, because of its growing might and resistance against normalization of relations with Saudi Arabia.

Deputy Special Envoy for Iran Abram Paley on June 26, said “As the Iranian regime prepares for its presidential elections, the US unfortunately has no expectation of free and fair elections or fundamental change in Iran’s direction. Of course, the candidates have been hand-picked by the Guardian Council, but we also know the Iranian people lack access to even the most basic freedoms; necessary features of any democracy. In the face of the authoritarian regime’s long history of harassing and intimidating journalists, suppressing election coverage, and denying freedom of peaceful of assembly, we support the Iranian people. The United States will continue to defend human rights in Iran, shine a light on the regime’s repression, and support a free and democratic future.”

State Department spokesperson on June 30 said, "The elections in Iran are not free and fair.”

"Unfortunately, we have no expectation that these elections, whatever the outcome, will lead to fundamental change in Iran’s direction or more respect by the Iranian regime for the human rights of Iran’s citizens.”

State Department spokesperson Vedant Patel on July 01 said, "We’re not in a position to confirm or – any turnout number or speculate on what the implications of that might mean for the Iranian regime. Our viewpoint is that even the Iranian Government’s official numbers about turnout are most – like most other things as it relates to the Iranian regime, are unreliable. Our view is that these elections in Iran are not free and fair, and we have no expectation that these elections and whatever the outcome might be will lead to a fundamental change in Iran’s direction or lead the Iranian regime to offer more respect for human rights and more dignity for its citizens."