Pezeshkian or Jalili: To be decided on Friday

Iranians are set to head to the polls on Friday, July 5, to choose their next president in a runoff election. Competition is tight between reformist Masoud Pezeshkian and conservative Saeed Jalili who respectively gained 10.41 million and 9.47 million votes during the preliminary round on June 28.

The incoming president will be stepping into the role left vacant by the untimely passing of President Ebrahim Raisi. Raisi tragically lost his life in a helicopter crash on May 19, with more than a year remaining in his term, and was anticipated to secure a second term in 2025.

With a campaign ban taking effect in the early hours of Thursday, we have decided to compare and contrast the plans, perspectives, and campaigns of the two candidates competing in the run-off election in this article.

Pezeshkian’s entrance into the presidential fray was sudden and unexpected. In his own words, he was not expecting to get qualified to run for president, as he had initially failed to get vetted as a nominee by the Guardian Council during the 2023 parliamentary elections.

In many of his debates and addresses to the Iranian populace, the reformist candidate said he needed to “consult experts” on economic and societal issues and refrained from detailing his agenda. While it is in no way bad to seek counsel from experts, some people had hoped that they would hear in more detail how Pezeshkian was planning to govern.

Jalili though, has campaigned for presidency multiple times in the past. He managed to outline more well-received plans and policies during debates. His remarks, however, have sometimes been deemed as too vague or too specific for the general public to understand. The fact that Jalili was allegedly a key contributor to the late President Raisi’s administration, also helped him hold a better grasp of the current issues in the country.

Pezeshkian’s entourage and key supporters are both a strong point and a point of weakness for him due to the reformists’ long and eventful time in office. Though, Pezeshkian has claimed that he does not align with any political party, any figure or former official ever seen besides him during his campaign has been a reformist or centrist.

Mohammad Javad Zarif, the former foreign minister who signed the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in 2015, is one of the figures who’s garnered both support and disdain for Pezeshkian. Some like Zarif for having commenced close dialogue with the United States for the first time in decades, and some reprimand him for naively compromising on Iran’s nuclear capabilities without making sure that Washington would uphold its commitments.

As for Jalili, there is no denying that his entourage and associates have been a significant vulnerability for him. Some of his representatives ended up making extremely controversial and uncalculated remarks on TV, making it easier for reformists to stigmatize Jalili as an inflexible and hard figure.

Pezeshkian is seen as a critic of President Raisi’s government. He and his advisors have repeatedly accused the Raisi administration of not caring about the termination of sanctions, saying that a reformist comeback in return would ensure the “normalization” of ties with the West.

That’s while most analysts agree that Raisi’s only difference with his centrist predecessor Hassan Rouhani was that he did not believe in tying the country’s existence to the sanctions removal, and sought dialogue with not only the West but also countries outside the Western hemisphere.

Jalili’s potential administration is considered to be a continuation of martyr Raisi’s time in office. Jalili thinks Iran should make the West “regret” its shunning of the JCPOA. He has not explained how his potential administration plans to do that, but his remarks have been praised by some who believe there is no point in expecting sincerity from the West, as such an approach has failed Iran in the past.

Pezeshkian’s views on the economy seem to be more liberal than his opponent. He believes energy prices should increase and the government must have less control over the market.

Jalili on the other hand, is in favor of maintaining and increasing energy subsidies. He also believes that the government must incorporate public participation in the economy, but says the government must still act as a supervising body.

Courtesy: Tehran Times

 

Iran exporting oil to seventeen countries

Iran is currently exporting crude oil to 17 countries, including some in Europe. The country will not face any problem in exporting oil no matter who comes to power in the United States, said Javad Oji, Iranian oil minister.

Speaking at a ceremony on Tuesday, he stated that good investment has been made in the past three years in the oil industry.

Iran produced 2.2 million barrels of oil per day (bpd) at the outset of the administration of the late President Ebrahim Raisi, but the current oil production rate is about 3.570 million bpd, showing a considerable hike, Oji underlined.

He went on to say that Iran’s oil exports rose from 182 million barrels in 2019 to 565 million barrels last year.

In addition, the value of the export of oil and gas condensates and other oil and petrochemical products rose from US$10.8 billion in 2019 to US$36 billion last year, registering a 3.5 times growth, the oil minister added.

Iran has risen to become the fourth largest oil exporter within the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) due to a surge in oil production and sales.

The report cited the rise in Chinese oil demand and the expansion of Iran's oil tanker fleet as the main factors contributing to the surge in Iran's oil exports.

 

Putin in Kazakhstan to attend SCO meeting

Russian President Vladimir Putin arrived in Kazakhstan on Wednesday for regional security and defence talks as well as a series of bilateral meetings, including with Chinese and Turkish leaders.

The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), a forum established by China and Russia in 2001 as a guardian of security in the Eurasia region, will meet for their summit on July 3-4 in Kazakhstan's capital city of Astana.

"The leaders of the SCO member countries will discuss the current state and prospects for further deepening multifaceted cooperation within the organization and improving its activities," the Kremlin said in a statement on its website.

While the meeting is likely to be dominated by Russia and China, leaders or representatives of Azerbaijan, Belarus, India, Iran, Kazakhstan, Qatar, Kyrgyzstan, China, Mongolia, the United Arab Emirates, Pakistan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Turkey and Uzbekistan, are also expected to attend.

United Nation Secretary General Antonio Guterres, is also expected, Russian agencies said on Tuesday.

On Tuesday, Russia said Putin will hold series of bilateral talks, including with Chinese President Xi Jinping and Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan.

India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who is expected in Moscow this month, will not attend and the country will be represented by Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar.

At last year's virtual summit, the group issued a statement critical of what it said was the negative impact of "unilateral and unlimited expansion of global missile defence systems by certain countries or groups of countries", without directly referring to NATO's expansion and Western military assistance to Ukraine.

Can Germany ease Israel-Hezbollah tension?

German Federal Intelligence Service (BND) Deputy Director Ole Diehl met with Hezbollah's second-in-command, Deputy Secretary-General Sheikh Naim Qassem, on Saturday evening, the Hezbollah-affiliated Lebanese news organization Al Akhkbar reported on Tuesday.

The meeting in Beirut was the second time the two officials met, as in January, the two met to discuss the Iranian proxy's attacks on the Jewish state.

According to the sources, “the session's atmosphere was positive.”

The discussion reportedly centered on the rising tensions between the Lebanese terror organization and Israel and how a full-scale war could be avoided.

The German envoy reportedly presented the Israeli desire to return the displaced residents of the North to their homes and that it would wage war on Hezbollah if necessary in order to accomplish this goal.

On Monday, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said that the residents of northern Israel "don’t feel safe to go to their homes" and that Israel had "lost sovereignty" over the northern portion of the country due to Hezbollah's attacks.

Diehl reportedly added that a mistake made by either party could result in a war between the two sides.

In response, Al Akhkbar reported that Qassem said any discussion of Hezbollah ceasing attacks on northern Israel was linked to the achievement of a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip.

Qassem's response echoed his comments to Diehl in January, where the Hezbollah deputy secretary-general reportedly "refused to discuss anything before Israel stops the war on Gaza. He urged Germany to put pressure on Israel to stop its aggression."

 

US comments on Iranian presidential election

It was but anticipated that United States would criticize the presidential election being held in Iran. The readers must keep in mind: 1) United States believes that Iran’s emergence as regional power is eroding its hegemony in the Middle East and 2) Israel considers Iran its worst enemy, because of its growing might and resistance against normalization of relations with Saudi Arabia.

Deputy Special Envoy for Iran Abram Paley on June 26, said “As the Iranian regime prepares for its presidential elections, the US unfortunately has no expectation of free and fair elections or fundamental change in Iran’s direction. Of course, the candidates have been hand-picked by the Guardian Council, but we also know the Iranian people lack access to even the most basic freedoms; necessary features of any democracy. In the face of the authoritarian regime’s long history of harassing and intimidating journalists, suppressing election coverage, and denying freedom of peaceful of assembly, we support the Iranian people. The United States will continue to defend human rights in Iran, shine a light on the regime’s repression, and support a free and democratic future.”

State Department spokesperson on June 30 said, "The elections in Iran are not free and fair.”

"Unfortunately, we have no expectation that these elections, whatever the outcome, will lead to fundamental change in Iran’s direction or more respect by the Iranian regime for the human rights of Iran’s citizens.”

State Department spokesperson Vedant Patel on July 01 said, "We’re not in a position to confirm or – any turnout number or speculate on what the implications of that might mean for the Iranian regime. Our viewpoint is that even the Iranian Government’s official numbers about turnout are most – like most other things as it relates to the Iranian regime, are unreliable. Our view is that these elections in Iran are not free and fair, and we have no expectation that these elections and whatever the outcome might be will lead to a fundamental change in Iran’s direction or lead the Iranian regime to offer more respect for human rights and more dignity for its citizens."

 

Iran fourth largest oil exporter in OPEC

Iran has become the fourth largest oil exporter within the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) due to a surge in oil production and export.

Iran's oil and gas condensate exports have now reached their highest level since 2018, when the United States withdrew from the Iran nuclear deal and introduced tough economic sanctions against the country, targeting its oil sales in particular, according to a report by Vortexa, which provides data on the global energy sector.

The report emphasized that Iran's oil and gas condensate exports now account for 9% of OPEC's total crude oil and gas condensate exports.

Iran exported 1.56 million barrels of oil per day from January to May of this year, 250,000 bpd more than Kuwait and Nigeria. This has elevated Iran's ranking to the fourth spot among OPEC's largest crude oil exporters.

Despite Western sanctions, Iran managed to increase its crude oil and gas exports to 1.7 million bpd in May, the highest level in the past five years.

The report cited the rise in Chinese oil demand and the expansion of Iran's oil tanker fleet as the main factors contributing to the surge in Iran's oil exports.

Ever since the late Iranian President Ebrahiam Raisi took power in August 2021, the country’s oil exports have been on an upward trajectory.

The rise in Iran’s oil exports has taken place despite tough US sanctions which aimed to choke off Iran’s oil industry as a main source of revenue for the Islamic Republic.

Financial Times cited figures by data company Vortexa last month noting that Iran was exporting more oil than at any time for the past six years, giving its economy a US$35 billion a year boost.

The report said that Tehran sold an average of 1.56 million barrels a day during the first three months of 2024, almost all of it to China and its highest level since the third quarter of 2018.

“The Iranians have mastered the art of sanctions circumvention,” said Fernando Ferreira, head of a geopolitical risk service at the Rapidan Energy Group in the United States.

Iran’s oil minister Javad Oji said in March that oil exports had “generated more than US $35 billion” in the preceding year.

On another occasion, he said that while Iran’s enemies wanted to stop its exports, “today, we can export oil anywhere we want, and with minimal discounts”.

 

Potential replacements of Joe Biden

US President Joe Biden’s campaign is intensely trying to quell speculation that he may drop out of the 2024 race following his lackluster debate performance last week. 

Most top Democrats have voiced support for Biden continuing in the race, while members of his family, including first lady Jill Biden, have declared they also want him to remain a candidate, casting doubt on the potential for replacing Biden. 

But if Biden were to step aside, several prominent Democrats could be waiting in the wings as possible successors.

Here are the top possible Biden replacements: 

Kamala Harris 

If Biden were to decide against seeking reelection, Vice President Kamala Harris would be the most obvious choice to replace him. Harris has defended Biden and emphasized his ability to serve another term in recent days, as have most other top Democrats who could be considered. 

Serving in the country’s second-highest office has given her some amount of executive governing experience, and Biden choosing her as his running mate already made her one of the top possible candidates for the 2028 nomination. 

With the presidential primaries concluded, Harris is also the only possible contender who could claim some past electoral mandate for the nomination, with the country having indirectly elected her as first-in-line to the presidency four years ago and Democratic voters backing Biden this year with the knowledge that she is the running mate. 

But Harris has some vulnerabilities. Her favorability rating has often been even lower than Biden’s, though she has improved somewhat in the past couple months and has a higher net approval rating than Biden, according to FiveThirtyEight.

She also could be dogged with criticisms of the Biden administration’s policies like immigration, on which she was spearheading an initiative. 

Still, Democrats could take a hit by passing over the first female Black vice president as its nominee when having the chance because Black voters will be a key constituency. A poll last month showed Harris would perform better with Black voters than Biden. 

Gavin Newsom 

If Harris were to be passed over, the California Gov. Gavin Newsom would almost certainly be at or near the top of many Democratic delegates’ list to be the nominee. 

Newsom has become one of the most prominent Democrats in the country over the past few years, in part because of his defense of Biden and his sparring with prominent Republicans, most notably Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis. 

Despite ongoing speculation of Newsom having presidential ambitions, he has repeatedly denied interest in running for president in 2024. Following Biden’s debate, he appeared in the spin room to argue against ditching Biden just because of one performance and called talk of Biden being replaced “unhelpful and unnecessary” in a fundraising pitch for the president on Friday. 

But if Biden were to step aside, Newsom would very likely receive significant calls to throw his hat in the ring. 

He would be able to run on a record as a two-term governor of one of the largest economies in the world and tout many accomplishments during his tenure for the left in the solidly blue state. He also has overcome an attempt to recall him and is seen as a top possibility to run in 2028. 

Gretchen Whitmer 

Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer first came to office in 2018, boosted by the slogan “Fix the Damn Roads,” which put a pragmatic focus on repairing the state’s infrastructure. Since then, she has become a rising liberal star in the Democratic Party. 

Her easy reelection victory in 2022 brought with it Democratic majorities in the state House and Senate, marking the first time in decades that Democrats had a trifecta of power in Michigan. She was also reelected alongside the passage of a ballot measure enshrining abortion rights in the state constitution, an initiative she championed. 

Whitmer has been able to notch key victories, including the repeal of the state’s decades-old abortion ban and a “right-to-work” law to prop up unions. 

Still, Whitmer has been among the clearest of the rumored choices that she is not angling to replace Biden and is fully behind him. 

Politico reported the Whitmer called Biden campaign chair Jen O’Malley Dillon on Friday to make clear she was not responsible for her name being floated as a possible replacement and is willing to help Biden with the campaign. She appeared in an ad supporting the Biden-Harris ticket that she posted Sunday on her account on the social platform X. 

Pete Buttigieg 

Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg was relatively unknown when he first began his run for president in 2020 but gained traction and popularity as “Mayor Pete,” having served as the mayor of South Bend, Ind. 

Buttigieg became a close advocate for Biden throughout 2020, culminating in his selection as Transportation secretary, making him the first openly gay Cabinet secretary. His success has raised speculation that he may try for another presidential run down the line. 

In particular, he had a high-profile moment in 2021 as Congress passed and Biden signed the bipartisan infrastructure law into effect. 

Buttigieg’s youth would also be a sharp contrast to Biden despite having less experience than some other rumored possibilities. But he struggled in 2020 with rallying minority, and especially Black support, and could face controversy over the administration’s handling of the East Palestine, Ohio, train derailment. 

Josh Shapiro 

Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro gradually rose to higher office in his home state before being elected state attorney general and eventually governor in 2022. He has developed a reputation over his career as a more moderate Democrat but was elected after running on key liberal issues, like protecting abortion rights and raising the minimum wage. 

His ability to comfortably win the governorship in the battleground by almost 15 points, as well as his youthful energy, has sparked rumors he could be a future face of the party, possibly running for the Oval Office in four years. 

But he would also likely get some attention this year if Biden were to end his presidential bid. He has been one of Biden’s top surrogates and called on his fellow Democrats to put in the work necessary to get Biden elected, saying “hand-wringing” and “fretting” are not the answer. 

“Democrats, stop worrying and start working. We all have the responsibility here to do our part,” Shapiro said during a Friday interview on MSNBC. 

JB Pritzker 

As the governor of Illinois, JB Pritzker is already set to receive some attention next month as the host governor of the Democratic National Convention in Chicago. This, along with his rising national profile, could yield some support for his name to be placed in contention for the nomination. 

Pritzker is in his second term as the head of the strongly Democratic-leaning state and has been an ardent defender of Biden throughout the 2024 campaign. Also one of Biden’s top surrogates, he defended the incumbent following special counsel Robert Hur’s report on Biden’s handling of classified documents and pushed back against Democrats planning to vote for anyone other than Biden in November. 

Pritzker also received attention after his abortion-rights group announced a US$500,000 investment into efforts to enshrine abortion rights into the Florida state constitution. 

But as with other Biden surrogates rumored as future presidential candidates, Pritzker has remained behind Biden. 

As the debate was wrapping up on Thursday, Pritzker argued on X the choice was “clear” in picking Biden over Trump, saying, “Voters face a stark choice in November. A president with the experience to fight for hardworking families across the country vs a 34-count convicted felon who cares only about himself.” 

Andy Beshear 

Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear pulled off an impressive reelection victory in his ruby-red state last year, improving his margin by a few points over his first election in 2019. 

That thrust his name into the national conversation as someone who may have a future in the party, even though he will be term-limited in the next election. The governor is widely popular, only in his mid-40s and managed to win statewide as a Democrat twice in a state that hasn’t voted for a Democrat in a presidential election since the 1990s. 

Beshear addressed the possibility of Biden being replaced Monday, telling reporters he will support Biden as long as the president remains the Democratic nominee. 

“The debate performance was rough. It was a very bad night for the president, but he is still the candidate. Only he can make decisions about his future candidacy. So as long as he continues to be in the race, I support him,” he said. 

When pressed on whether he could replace Biden, Beshear said talk of serving is “flattering” but is a “reflection of all the good things going on in Kentucky.”

Courtesy: The Hill