Iran fourth largest oil exporter in OPEC

Iran has become the fourth largest oil exporter within the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) due to a surge in oil production and export.

Iran's oil and gas condensate exports have now reached their highest level since 2018, when the United States withdrew from the Iran nuclear deal and introduced tough economic sanctions against the country, targeting its oil sales in particular, according to a report by Vortexa, which provides data on the global energy sector.

The report emphasized that Iran's oil and gas condensate exports now account for 9% of OPEC's total crude oil and gas condensate exports.

Iran exported 1.56 million barrels of oil per day from January to May of this year, 250,000 bpd more than Kuwait and Nigeria. This has elevated Iran's ranking to the fourth spot among OPEC's largest crude oil exporters.

Despite Western sanctions, Iran managed to increase its crude oil and gas exports to 1.7 million bpd in May, the highest level in the past five years.

The report cited the rise in Chinese oil demand and the expansion of Iran's oil tanker fleet as the main factors contributing to the surge in Iran's oil exports.

Ever since the late Iranian President Ebrahiam Raisi took power in August 2021, the country’s oil exports have been on an upward trajectory.

The rise in Iran’s oil exports has taken place despite tough US sanctions which aimed to choke off Iran’s oil industry as a main source of revenue for the Islamic Republic.

Financial Times cited figures by data company Vortexa last month noting that Iran was exporting more oil than at any time for the past six years, giving its economy a US$35 billion a year boost.

The report said that Tehran sold an average of 1.56 million barrels a day during the first three months of 2024, almost all of it to China and its highest level since the third quarter of 2018.

“The Iranians have mastered the art of sanctions circumvention,” said Fernando Ferreira, head of a geopolitical risk service at the Rapidan Energy Group in the United States.

Iran’s oil minister Javad Oji said in March that oil exports had “generated more than US $35 billion” in the preceding year.

On another occasion, he said that while Iran’s enemies wanted to stop its exports, “today, we can export oil anywhere we want, and with minimal discounts”.

 

Potential replacements of Joe Biden

US President Joe Biden’s campaign is intensely trying to quell speculation that he may drop out of the 2024 race following his lackluster debate performance last week. 

Most top Democrats have voiced support for Biden continuing in the race, while members of his family, including first lady Jill Biden, have declared they also want him to remain a candidate, casting doubt on the potential for replacing Biden. 

But if Biden were to step aside, several prominent Democrats could be waiting in the wings as possible successors.

Here are the top possible Biden replacements: 

Kamala Harris 

If Biden were to decide against seeking reelection, Vice President Kamala Harris would be the most obvious choice to replace him. Harris has defended Biden and emphasized his ability to serve another term in recent days, as have most other top Democrats who could be considered. 

Serving in the country’s second-highest office has given her some amount of executive governing experience, and Biden choosing her as his running mate already made her one of the top possible candidates for the 2028 nomination. 

With the presidential primaries concluded, Harris is also the only possible contender who could claim some past electoral mandate for the nomination, with the country having indirectly elected her as first-in-line to the presidency four years ago and Democratic voters backing Biden this year with the knowledge that she is the running mate. 

But Harris has some vulnerabilities. Her favorability rating has often been even lower than Biden’s, though she has improved somewhat in the past couple months and has a higher net approval rating than Biden, according to FiveThirtyEight.

She also could be dogged with criticisms of the Biden administration’s policies like immigration, on which she was spearheading an initiative. 

Still, Democrats could take a hit by passing over the first female Black vice president as its nominee when having the chance because Black voters will be a key constituency. A poll last month showed Harris would perform better with Black voters than Biden. 

Gavin Newsom 

If Harris were to be passed over, the California Gov. Gavin Newsom would almost certainly be at or near the top of many Democratic delegates’ list to be the nominee. 

Newsom has become one of the most prominent Democrats in the country over the past few years, in part because of his defense of Biden and his sparring with prominent Republicans, most notably Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis. 

Despite ongoing speculation of Newsom having presidential ambitions, he has repeatedly denied interest in running for president in 2024. Following Biden’s debate, he appeared in the spin room to argue against ditching Biden just because of one performance and called talk of Biden being replaced “unhelpful and unnecessary” in a fundraising pitch for the president on Friday. 

But if Biden were to step aside, Newsom would very likely receive significant calls to throw his hat in the ring. 

He would be able to run on a record as a two-term governor of one of the largest economies in the world and tout many accomplishments during his tenure for the left in the solidly blue state. He also has overcome an attempt to recall him and is seen as a top possibility to run in 2028. 

Gretchen Whitmer 

Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer first came to office in 2018, boosted by the slogan “Fix the Damn Roads,” which put a pragmatic focus on repairing the state’s infrastructure. Since then, she has become a rising liberal star in the Democratic Party. 

Her easy reelection victory in 2022 brought with it Democratic majorities in the state House and Senate, marking the first time in decades that Democrats had a trifecta of power in Michigan. She was also reelected alongside the passage of a ballot measure enshrining abortion rights in the state constitution, an initiative she championed. 

Whitmer has been able to notch key victories, including the repeal of the state’s decades-old abortion ban and a “right-to-work” law to prop up unions. 

Still, Whitmer has been among the clearest of the rumored choices that she is not angling to replace Biden and is fully behind him. 

Politico reported the Whitmer called Biden campaign chair Jen O’Malley Dillon on Friday to make clear she was not responsible for her name being floated as a possible replacement and is willing to help Biden with the campaign. She appeared in an ad supporting the Biden-Harris ticket that she posted Sunday on her account on the social platform X. 

Pete Buttigieg 

Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg was relatively unknown when he first began his run for president in 2020 but gained traction and popularity as “Mayor Pete,” having served as the mayor of South Bend, Ind. 

Buttigieg became a close advocate for Biden throughout 2020, culminating in his selection as Transportation secretary, making him the first openly gay Cabinet secretary. His success has raised speculation that he may try for another presidential run down the line. 

In particular, he had a high-profile moment in 2021 as Congress passed and Biden signed the bipartisan infrastructure law into effect. 

Buttigieg’s youth would also be a sharp contrast to Biden despite having less experience than some other rumored possibilities. But he struggled in 2020 with rallying minority, and especially Black support, and could face controversy over the administration’s handling of the East Palestine, Ohio, train derailment. 

Josh Shapiro 

Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro gradually rose to higher office in his home state before being elected state attorney general and eventually governor in 2022. He has developed a reputation over his career as a more moderate Democrat but was elected after running on key liberal issues, like protecting abortion rights and raising the minimum wage. 

His ability to comfortably win the governorship in the battleground by almost 15 points, as well as his youthful energy, has sparked rumors he could be a future face of the party, possibly running for the Oval Office in four years. 

But he would also likely get some attention this year if Biden were to end his presidential bid. He has been one of Biden’s top surrogates and called on his fellow Democrats to put in the work necessary to get Biden elected, saying “hand-wringing” and “fretting” are not the answer. 

“Democrats, stop worrying and start working. We all have the responsibility here to do our part,” Shapiro said during a Friday interview on MSNBC. 

JB Pritzker 

As the governor of Illinois, JB Pritzker is already set to receive some attention next month as the host governor of the Democratic National Convention in Chicago. This, along with his rising national profile, could yield some support for his name to be placed in contention for the nomination. 

Pritzker is in his second term as the head of the strongly Democratic-leaning state and has been an ardent defender of Biden throughout the 2024 campaign. Also one of Biden’s top surrogates, he defended the incumbent following special counsel Robert Hur’s report on Biden’s handling of classified documents and pushed back against Democrats planning to vote for anyone other than Biden in November. 

Pritzker also received attention after his abortion-rights group announced a US$500,000 investment into efforts to enshrine abortion rights into the Florida state constitution. 

But as with other Biden surrogates rumored as future presidential candidates, Pritzker has remained behind Biden. 

As the debate was wrapping up on Thursday, Pritzker argued on X the choice was “clear” in picking Biden over Trump, saying, “Voters face a stark choice in November. A president with the experience to fight for hardworking families across the country vs a 34-count convicted felon who cares only about himself.” 

Andy Beshear 

Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear pulled off an impressive reelection victory in his ruby-red state last year, improving his margin by a few points over his first election in 2019. 

That thrust his name into the national conversation as someone who may have a future in the party, even though he will be term-limited in the next election. The governor is widely popular, only in his mid-40s and managed to win statewide as a Democrat twice in a state that hasn’t voted for a Democrat in a presidential election since the 1990s. 

Beshear addressed the possibility of Biden being replaced Monday, telling reporters he will support Biden as long as the president remains the Democratic nominee. 

“The debate performance was rough. It was a very bad night for the president, but he is still the candidate. Only he can make decisions about his future candidacy. So as long as he continues to be in the race, I support him,” he said. 

When pressed on whether he could replace Biden, Beshear said talk of serving is “flattering” but is a “reflection of all the good things going on in Kentucky.”

Courtesy: The Hill

Who could replace Joe Biden?

Replacing President Joe Biden as the Democratic nominee would be highly complicated, and likely impossible, unless the president voluntarily decides to back out, on his own.

Politically and mechanically, it is nearly impossible to believe that Democrats would or could forcibly prevent Biden from becoming the nominee.

Right now, Biden is the only candidate for whom those attending the Democratic convention can even vote.

He received 99% of his party’s delegates in the primaries, and Democratic delegates have pledged to back whoever won their state’s contest in the first round of voting.

Democratic National Committee (DNC) rules require delegates that Biden won to pledge their support for his nomination unless Biden were to willingly decide to step down and free his delegates for another candidate. 

Before the convention opens on August 19, the DNC could change the rules to block Biden, but that would require a level of political support hard to imagine. A battle between pro- and anti-Biden factions at a convention to unseat him is highly unlikely to happen.

But the possibility is conceivable that party leaders, including former Presidents Obama and Clinton, might be convinced to talk to Biden about dropping out, Democratic sources told The Hill.

Biden ultimately puts the most value on advice from first lady Jill Biden and his sister, Valerie, two people who are largely considered the only voices who could truly change his mind.

A situation unique to 2024 may give party leaders even less time to sort out who will be the nominee than they normally would have. Ohio state law requires its ballot to be certified 90 days prior to the election. This year that falls on August 07, almost two weeks before the convention starts.

Despite Ohio state lawmakers trying to pass a bill to fix the issue, they deadlocked, leading DNC leaders to decide to virtually nominate Biden in advance of the deadline and the convention. If they plan to follow through on this, any change in the nominee would need to happen before Ohio’s deadline if the candidate is to be on the ballot in the state, notwithstanding a fix from Ohio lawmakers.

On Friday, party leaders were coalescing around Biden and not giving any signal that they might privately push for him to drop out.

His campaign, the White House and surrogates have pushed back forcefully on the idea, but others said if polls show his performance is hurting down-ballot candidates, it could become a real subject.

The natural successor to Biden would be Vice President Harris. But she wouldn’t be the automatic replacement, if Biden were to drop out.

While Biden won the primaries, his support won through those contests cannot be bestowed by Biden on Harris.

Harris would instead, at the convention or sooner, compete with other potential candidates who might see themselves as stronger candidates than the vice president against presumptive GOP nominee, former President Trump.

According to its bylaws, the DNC has general responsibility for the affairs of the party between national conventions, and those responsibilities include filling vacancies in the nominations for the office of the president and vice president.

If Biden exited, there would be a vacancy, and Harris would be the logical successor.

Politically, some said it was hard to believe, at this stage, that someone could replace Harris if Biden wanted her to be his replacement on a ticket. But there would almost certainly be prospective politicians, such as California Gov. Gavin Newsom or Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, who might try.

“This is the bigger pickle to replacing Biden. I don’t see the Democratic coalition surviving intact if Harris is not on the top of the ticket, and it’s hard to assure that would be the party consensus if they replace Biden,” a former DNC official said.

If there were more than one Democratic candidate vying to replace a withdrawn Biden as the party’s nominee, those prospective candidates would likely need to fight it out with state delegations at the August convention in Chicago.

This would set up a scenario that hasn’t been seen in American politics in decades: A contested convention that actually selects the party’s nominee.

Conservative groups have suggested they will file lawsuits around the country, potentially questioning the legality of the Democratic candidate’s name on the ballot, in such a situation.

But in an interview with the Associated Press, Elaine Kamarck, a senior fellow in governance studies at the Brookings Institution in Washington, noted the courts have consistently stayed out of political primaries as long as parties running them weren’t doing anything that would contradict other constitutional rights, such as voter suppression based on race.

 

United States fails in deterring Houthis

After half a year of conflict, the United States has failed to deter the Houthis from attacking merchant ships in the Red Sea as the Yemeni fighters continue to attack commercial boats and disrupt global trade, posing an increasingly difficult challenge for the far larger American military.  

Repeated US bombardments on Houthis positions have done little to stop the group that has managed to employ advanced weapons like surface-water drones and anti-ship ballistic missiles to fluster US troops. They have kept up the pace of attacks with more than 190 drone and missile launches since the effort began in October 2023. 

While the US has thwarted most Houthi attempts to damage merchant ships, the Yemeni fighters have now sunk or heavily damaged at least four commercial vessels, along with hijacking one. They have also killed four commercial sailors. 

The latest successful attack came on June 23, when the Houthis struck the Liberian-flagged and Greek-owned merchant ship the Trans World Navigator. The last vessel to sink, another Greek-owned ship, the Tutor, was on June 12.  

Bruce Bennett, an adjunct senior international defense researcher at RAND Corporation, said the Houthis are being fed by religious determination and a political motivation that embraces sacrifice, while their insurgent warfare, with weapons scattered across Yemen, pose a big challenge. 

“The US military is designed for regular warfare. It’s designed to take out an adversary who’s out there and targetable,” he said. “It’s really a very hard kind of military threat to get under control.” 

The conflict’s impact on global trade is only growing as it drags on. Earlier this month, the shipping industry sent out a scathing condemnation of the Houthis attacks, calling it “an unacceptable situation” and pushing for stronger international action to ensure the attacks “stop now.” 

While economic costs have largely been absorbed by the shipping industry and direct sellers for now, that could change. 

Adnan Mazarei, a nonresident senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics who focuses on the economies of the Middle East and Central Asia, said traffic is down by 50% in the Red Sea corridor. The impact is regional, he added, mainly hitting Egypt, which collects shipping revenues through the Suez Canal, along with reducing port traffic for countries like Israel. 

An extended conflict could begin to impact other parts of the world, especially Europe, as increased shipping costs trickle down to the average consumer. That could significantly worsen if a possible approaching war between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon is realized, Mazarei added. 

“Unless there is a war in Lebanon, we are in a somewhat stable situation” he said. “Not a good situation, but I think things are somewhat stabilized.” 

The Houthis are launching drones and missiles daily from sites in Yemen, using fishing boats for radar-tracking and relying on advanced weapons shipments and other targeting assistance from Iran. 

The scope of their efforts has also expanded outside of the maritime corridor, with the Houthis in the past few months kidnapping dozens of United Nations relief works, Human Rights Watch said in a new report. 

The US Navy has been constantly on the alert since full engagement began in January to quickly shoot down drones and launch counterattacks on the rebel group’s assets.  

But the Houthis need to slip just one drone or missile through defenses to do damage, while the U.S. cannot miss once or risk a hit, said Cmdr. Eric Blomberg with the USS Laboon, a destroyer ship that has taken on the Houthis, who told The Associated Press that people may be unaware of “how deadly serious it is what we’re doing and how under threat the ships continue to be.” 

The USS Eisenhower aircraft carrier strike group, made up of four ships and some 6,000 sailors, this month left the Middle East. The US is sending reinforcements to the region for the Eisenhower group, which has been deployed since October to deter regional escalation and counter the Houthis. 

Washington believes it can damage the rebels enough to stop the effectiveness of their campaign, though officials are now stressing the challenge of accomplishing that goal. 

White House national security spokesperson John Kirby told reporters on Wednesday that the Houthis “miss a whole hell of a lot more than they hit” because of the Navy’s vigilance. 

Kirby explained the U.S. was focused on “taking away their capability to conduct the attacks” but also acknowledged the Houthis remain determined and well-supplied, despite the military working to intercept Iranian skiffs headed to Yemen. 

“They have instilled this sort of religious fervorness and made it some sort of cause célèbre, and when you do that, it becomes even more difficult,” he said. “We’re doing everything we can to try to degrade their capabilities, but they’re still getting supplied. They’re still getting resourced by Iran.” 

Neither Biden nor Trump fit to be US President

US President Joe Biden’s main opponent on the debate stage in Atlanta on Thursday night wasn’t the rambling, falsehood-filled former president who refused to admit he lost the last election or commit to respecting the result if he loses the next one. 

The 81-year-old Democrat’s real foe was himself. Biden’s disjointed performance shocked and angered many loyal Democrats, some of whom began openly questioning whether he should continue to seek a second term.

Donald Trump, 78 is just three years younger to Biden, largely avoided the kind of outbursts for which he is famous.

He did however remain consistent in using the debate stage to pour forth a steady stream of lies on everything from tariffs on China, abortion and the failed 2021 effort to block the transfer of power. Neither the moderators nor Biden offered much fact-checking. 

Biden’s Friday performance had sent parts of the Democratic political establishment into a tizzy. “DEFCON 1,” said former President Barack Obama’s campaign manager, David Plouffe.

A steady drumbeat of talking heads took to cable urging Biden to make way for a younger candidate—though it’s late in the game for such a strategy. 

Biden’s Congressional allies stood by him Friday, but the talk among doubters was centered on Vice President Kamala Harris, Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer and California Governor Gavin Newsom.

Harris would be the only candidate able to inherit Biden’s large campaign war chest. Newsom however topped many informal lists.

He’s “arguably best equipped—in fundraising chops, in messaging and in campaign infrastructure—to step up in an emergency,” Erika D. Smith wrote in Bloomberg Opinion.

But by Friday afternoon, the president had moved to quell the panic. Following a morning of Republican glee and Democratic handwringing, a decidedly more energetic Biden took to the stage at a rally in North Carolina.

“I don’t walk as easy as I used to. I don’t walk as smoothly as I used to. I don’t debate as well as I used to,” he conceded to a cheering crowd. “But I know what I do know—I know how to tell the truth, I know right from wrong and I know how to do this job.” 

Iran rejects statements made by US official

Iran has firmly rejected recent statements made by a US administration official concerning the country's presidential election, labeling the remarks as "worthless" and "meddlesome." 

On Friday, Nasser Kanaani, the spokesman for Iran's Foreign Ministry, responded forcefully to comments by Abram Paley, the deputy special envoy for Iran at the US State Department. Paley had taken to his X social media account to accuse Iran of "suppressing election coverage" and asserted that the election was neither "free nor fair," among other allegations deemed false by Iranian authorities.

Kanaani criticized these comments, stating, "American authorities gain nothing from such worthless statements. The Iranian people will firmly respond to these interventionist remarks by participating effectively and enthusiastically in the polls, as they have done in the past."

He emphasized the significant role that the Iranian populace plays in shaping their political future, an aspect he described as an "obvious principle" that has been consistently demonstrated in practice.

He further asserted that the integrity and fairness of Iran's electoral processes have been validated in previous elections.

"The Islamic Republic of Iran and its election organizers view the people's vote as a trust and a fundamental right, which they are obligated to protect," Kanaani said.

He suggested that the American officials' understanding of this principle might be limited by what he described as their "totalitarian mentality."

Kanaani also took the opportunity to critique the state of American democracy, both domestically and internationally.

He highlighted the "bitter taste" of American democracy experienced by global nations, particularly pointing to the situation in the occupied territories.

"The outcome of American democracy and human rights there includes criminals known for occupation, racism, war, bloodshed, and terrorist acts," he remarked.

He continued by saying that if the US democratic system allowed it, American citizens would undoubtedly elect better leaders. 

Additionally, Kanaani condemned the U.S. treatment of pro-Palestine students and professors in American universities, citing it as clear evidence of Washington’s poor track record on human rights and freedom of expression. "The world is witnessing how discussions on human rights in America have turned into an empty slogan, marred by beatings, illegal arrests, and dismissals," he said.

In Iran, over 61 million people are eligible to vote, with the election headquarters reporting that voting took place at 58,640 polling stations, mainly located in schools and mosques. Early projections of the election results are anticipated by Saturday morning, with official results expected by Sunday.

The new administration, the 14th since the victory of the Islamic Revolution in 1979, is expected to assume power in late June or early July and will hold office for four years.

 

Iran to hold presidential run-off on July 5

According to Reuters, a moderate lawmaker will face Iran supreme leader's protégé in a run-off presidential election on July 05, 2024 after the country's interior ministry said on Saturday that no candidate secured enough votes in the first round of voting.

Friday's vote to replace Ebrahim Raisi after his death in a helicopter crash came down to a tight race between a low-profile lawmaker Massoud Pezeshkian, the sole moderate in a field of four candidates, and former Revolutionary Guards member Saeed Jalili.

The interior ministry said neither secured the 50% plus one vote of over 25 million ballots cast required to win outright, with Pezeshkian leading with over 10 million votes ahead of Jalili with over 9.4 million votes.

Power in Iran ultimately lies with Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, so the result will not herald any major policy shift on Iran's nuclear program or its support for militia groups across the Middle East.

But the president runs the government day-to-day and can influence the tone of Iran's policy.

The clerical establishment hoped for a high turnout as it faces a legitimacy crisis fuelled by public discontent over economic hardship and curbs on political and social freedom. However, turnout in Friday's vote hit a historic low of about 40%, based on interior ministry count released on Saturday.

The election comes at a time of escalating regional tension due to the war between Israel and Iranian allies Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon, as well as increased Western pressure on Iran over its fast-advancing nuclear program.

With Iran's supreme leader now 85, it is likely that the next president will be closely involved in the process of choosing a successor to Khamenei, who seeks a fiercely loyal president who can ensure a smooth eventual succession to his own position, insiders and analysts say.

Anti-Western views of Jalili, Iran's former uncompromising nuclear negotiator, offer a contrast to those of Pezeshkian. Analysts said Jalili's win would signal the possibility of an even more antagonistic turn in the Islamic Republic's foreign and domestic policy.

But a victory for mild-mannered lawmaker Pezeshkian might help ease tensions with the West, improve chances of economic reform, social liberalization and political pluralism.

Pezeshkian, faithful to Iran's theocratic rule, is backed by the reformist faction that has largely been sidelined in Iran in recent years.

"We will respect the hijab law, but there should never be any intrusive or inhumane behaviour toward women," Pezeshkian said after casting his vote.

He was referring to the death of Mahsa Amini, a young Kurdish woman, in 2022 while in morality police custody for allegedly violating the mandatory Islamic dress code.

The unrest sparked by Amini's death spiraled into the biggest show of opposition to Iran's clerical rulers in years.