Are United States and Iran already at war?

More than 160 attacks on the US troops in Iraq, Syria and Jordan, 37 clashes in the Red Sea with the Houthis, and now five dead US service members — America’s mounting proxy battle with Iran over the past three months is spurring questions about whether the countries are at war. 

It’s also raising questions about whether the US can continue to hit back at Iranian-backed militia groups without seeking congressional authorization. 

The Biden administration argues it has successfully contained the Israeli war against the Palestinian militant group Hamas to Gaza, and that there is not a wider conflict. But the sheer number of attacks on US forces points to tensions spinning out of control. 

It is already a larger conflict. It’s a question of degrees, Robert Murrett, a retired Navy vice admiral, said. But the fighting is not out of control yet, according to Murrett. 

“Calling it a war is probably overstating things,” Murrett, now a professor at Syracuse University, said. “But the tensions, the hostilities that exist between Iran and the US are at the highest level they’ve been for some time.” 

The tit-for-tat battles reached a boiling point after a Sunday attack in Jordan, which the US has said likely came from an Iranian-backed militia group in Iraq, Kata’ib Hezbollah. A suicide drone exploded in a housing unit at the Tower 22 base near Iraq and Syria, killing three Army soldiers.

The US also lost two sailors during a covert mission off the coast of Somalia to intercept Iranian missiles bound for the Iranian-backed Houthis in Yemen. While the mission was a success, two sailors died after falling into the rough waters. 

 

The deaths sparked mourning across the US and calls for more action, particularly among Republicans, some of whom urged Biden to strike back inside Iran.

Washington is already deploying significant resources to defend ships in the Red Sea from the Houthis and carry out airstrikes in Yemen and Iraq, none of which have deterred the militia groups from attacking. 

Courtesy: The Hill

 

 

Houthis claim to have hit US container ship

The Houthi movement in Yemen says it has struck a US merchant ship in the Red Sea in a fresh attack targeting commercial shipping, reports Saudi Gazette. It named the ship as the KOI, which it said was US-operated.

Maritime security firm Ambrey said a vessel operating south of Yemen's port of Aden had reported an explosion on board but it did not name the ship.

Meanwhile, the US has launched new air strikes in Yemen, targeting 10 drones reportedly being set up to launch.

According to Reuters, KOI is a Liberian-flagged container ship operated by UK-based Oceonix Services. The same company's fleet includes the oil tanker Marlin Luanda, which was damaged by a missile on Saturday.

The Houthis regard all Israeli, US and British ships as legitimate targets following Israel's war on Hamas in Gaza, and US and British targeting of Houthi missile positions in what the two countries say are efforts to protect commerce.

Houthi military spokesperson Yahya Sarea said on Wednesday that the movement's armed forces had targeted an American merchant ship named KOI with "several appropriate naval missiles".

The ship, he said, had been heading to "the ports of occupied Palestine", a phrase which is sometimes used to mean Israel.

Yemen, he added, would not hesitate to retaliate against British-American escalation.

US Central Command said the 10 drones being prepared for launch in Yemen had posed a threat to merchant vessels and US warships in the region.

All 10 were destroyed along with a Houthi drone ground control station, it said.

The US added that one of its warships had shot down three Iranian drones and a Houthi anti-ship ballistic missile in the Gulf of Aden.

Saudi Arabia and Kuwait assert ownership of Durra field

Saudi Arabia and Kuwait underscored their unequivocal stance regarding the Durra field, asserting its location entirely within Kuwait's exclusive maritime areas. They emphasized that the natural resources in the divided submerged area, including the Durra field, are shared exclusively between Saudi Arabia and Kuwait. This unequivocal stance rejects any claims of rights by any other party in this area.

The assertion of this stand came in a joint statement issued following the visit of Kuwait's Emir, Sheikh Mishal Al-Ahmad Al-Jaber Al-Sabah, to Saudi Arabia on Tuesday. During the visit, the Kuwaiti Emir held talks with Saudi Arabia's King Salman, as well as Crown Prince and Prime Minister Mohammad bin Salman.

The two nations renewed their call on Iran to engage in negotiations over the eastern border of the divided submerged area, involving Kuwait and Saudi Arabia as one party, in accordance with international law.

Saudi Arabia and Kuwait have reaffirmed their call to neighboring Iraq to honor the 2012 agreement concerning the regulation of navigation in the Khor Abdullah waterway.

The joint statement emphasized the importance of the Khor Abdullah agreement, which came into force on December 5, 2013, after ratification by both countries and subsequent submission to the United Nations on December 18, 2013.

The two nations expressed their disapproval of Iraq's unilateral cancellation of the security exchange protocol established between Kuwait and Iraq in 2008, as well as the endorsed map signed between the two countries on December 28, 2014. The map included a clear mechanism for amendment and cancellation.

Moreover, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait reiterated their support for the UN Security Council Resolution No. 2107 (2013). This resolution seeks the Special Representative of the Secretary-General to facilitate efforts in determining the fate of missing Kuwaitis, and third-country nationals, and the return of the seized Kuwaiti property, including national archives.

The joint statement covered various aspects of cooperation, including economic, commercial, and investment collaboration. Both sides hailed the growth of trade relations and mutual investments, emphasizing the importance of expanding economic cooperation and partnership, aligning with their respective visions – Saudi Arabia's Vision 2030 and Kuwait's Vision 2035.

The Saudi side extended an invitation to Kuwaiti investors and companies to expand their presence in the Kingdom and take advantage of available investment opportunities. Additionally, the two nations expressed their desire to sign an agreement to prevent double taxation.

On the defense and security front, both countries highlighted their commitment to strengthening defense cooperation and strategic relations to ensure regional security and stability. They emphasized the importance of combating crimes such as drug trafficking, border security, extremism, and terrorism, and promoting a culture of moderation and tolerance.

Regarding the Palestinian territories, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait voiced deep concern about the humanitarian crisis in the Gaza Strip due to the Israeli occupation's military operations. They called for international action to halt the Israeli aggression, protect civilians, and enable humanitarian organizations to provide aid to Palestinians. They stressed the need for a comprehensive and just settlement of the Palestinian issue based on a two-state solution, the Arab Peace Initiative, and relevant UN resolutions.

The joint statement also addressed the Yemeni crisis, expressing support for international and regional efforts to reach a comprehensive political solution. Kuwait praised Saudi Arabia's initiatives aimed at encouraging dialogue and reconciliation among Yemeni parties, as well as the Kingdom's humanitarian aid efforts.

Regarding navigation in the Red Sea, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait emphasized the importance of maintaining security and stability in the region and respecting the right to safe maritime navigation in accordance with international law and the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea of 1982. They called for restraint and de-escalation amid the region's heightened tensions.

Why United States has bases in Middle East?

United States has been operating bases around the Middle East for decades. Often questions are asked: what are US troops doing in the Middle East and where are these bases located? These questions have got louder after three US soldiers were killed and dozens wounded as a drone hit a military outpost in Jordan, known as Tower 22, on Sunday. The location is just one of many bases the US has in the Middle East.

Tower 22 holds a strategically important location in Jordan, at the most northeastern point where the country's borders meet Syria and Iraq.

Specifically, Tower 22 is near Al Tanf garrison, which is located across the border in Syria, and which houses a small number of US troops. Tanf had been the key in the fight against Islamic State and has assumed a role as part of a US strategy to contain Iran's military build-up in eastern Syria.

US bases are highly guarded facilities, including with air defense systems to protect against missiles or drones.

Facilities in countries like Qatar, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait are not usually attacked, but US troops in Iraq and Syria have come under frequent attacks in recent years.

Reportedly, since October 07, 2023 US troops have been attacked more than 160 times, injuring about 80 troops, even prior to Sunday's attack on Tower 22, which has injured around 40 more

The US has been operating bases around the Middle East for decades. At its peak, there were more than 100,000 US troops in Afghanistan in 2011 and over 160,000 personnel in Iraq in 2007.

The number has declined substantially after withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021, but still about 30,000 US troops scattered across the region.

Since the Israel-Gaza war began in October 2023, the US has temporarily sent thousands of additional troops in the region, including on warships.

The largest US base in the Middle East is located in Qatar, known as Al Udeid Air Base and built in 1996. Other countries where the US has a presence include Bahrain, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE).

The US has roughly 900 troops in Syria, in small bases like al Omar Oil field and al-Shaddadi mostly in the northeast of the country. There is a small outpost near the county's border with Iraq and Jordan, known as the Al Tanf garrison.

There are 2,500 personnel in Iraq, spread around facilities like Union III and Ain al-Asad air base, though talks are ongoing about the future of those troops.

 US troops are stationed in the Middle East for different reasons and with the exception of Syria, they are there with the permission of each country's government.

In some countries like Iraq and Syria, US troops are there to fight against Islamic State militants and are helping local forces. But they have come under attack over the past several years and have taken action against the attackers.

Jordan, a key US ally in the region, has hundreds of US trainers and they hold extensive exercises throughout the year.

In Qatar and the UAE, US troops have a presence to reassure allies, carry out training and are used as needed in operations in the region.

While Washington's allies sometimes send their troops to train or work with US troops, there are no foreign military bases inside the United States.

 

 

 

 

 

Israel pushing United States into a full-fledged war in Middle East

President Joe Biden’s unwavering, unjustified, and blind support for Israel’s carnage in the Gaza Strip is pushing the region into a wider conflict.

The United States is already caught in a conflict with Yemen’s Ansarullah and the Islamic Resistance in Iraq, which has claimed responsibility for the Sunday drone attack on a US base in Jordan near the border with Syria that left three US three service members dead. 

Hamas reacted to the drone attack, saying it was a message to the American administration and that the American-Zionist aggression on Gaza risks a regional explosion.

Biden has been opposing a ceasefire in Israel’s war in Gaza, shipping weapons to Israel, and vetoing UN Security Council resolutions calling for a ceasefire in Gaza.

Moreover, the shadow of a full-fledged war between Israel and Hezbollah is looming.

While the scandalous US exit from Afghanistan in August of 2021 is still fresh in minds, the US is inadvertently but foolishly being dragged into another war in the region.

Ansarullah started attacking American vessels and warships in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden just because the United States and Britain have so far launched a series of attacks on sites inside Yemen in response to Ansarullah’s attacks on Israeli vessels and those destined to and from Israel’s ports.

Ansarullah had said if Israel allowed humanitarian aid into Gaza and stopped the war on the besieged enclave it would have ceased attacks on Israeli-linked vessels.

However, Biden, instead of pressing Israel to end its savage war in Gaza, decided to launch attacks on Yemen.

In a commentary immediately after the attacks on US troops in Jordan, the Qunicy Institute said, “They (three service members) didn’t die defending US interests, they died defending Biden’s refusal to press Israel for a ceasefire. Their lives were put at risk by Biden to defend Israel’s ability to continue its carnage in Gaza.” 

Given the United States’ bitter wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, it was expected that Biden and his national security team would deal with the Gaza war circumspectly, especially as many countries, politicians, analysts and international bodies have been warning about the spread of the war in the region.

The Biden administration has been claiming that it opposes the spread of war but in practice it is adding fuel to the fire by backing criminals in Tel Aviv whose thirst for blood is unquenchable.

Now the feeling to respond to those who killed American troops in Jordan’s border with Syria is boiling. This feeling is being fanned by Republican hardliners.

With each passing day, the US is getting closer to a new bloody, endless, foolish, and guerrilla warfare in the Middle East. Since the attack by Hamas on Israel on October 07, former and current officials in Israel have been earnestly working to push the US toward a war in the region.

It seems that they are succeeding in their plot and the region is entering a highly dangerous situation.

Former Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett wrote an op-ed in the Wall Street Journal on December 28 headlined “The US and Israel need to take Iran on directly”.

We hope that the United States under the Biden administration will come to its senses and stop sacrificing the US interests for Israel.

Courtesy: Tehran Times

Gold prices to remain on upward trajectory

Gold prices are expected to dip in the near term before climbing to new highs later in the year, peaking at $2,300/ounce (oz) in 2025. This would be driven by further interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve and falling US real yields  

According to a report by JP Morgan Research, this would be driven by further interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve and falling US real yields  

Following the first cut of the last three Fed cutting cycles in 2001, 2007 and 2019, gold prices have followed an upward trajectory.

The commodity soared to an all-time high of $2,135.39/oz at the end of 2023 after a powerful rally was sparked by central bank purchasing and mounting investor concern over the Israel–Hamas and Russia–Ukraine conflicts, the report said.

“Commodities are unlikely to benefit from core inflation in 2024. Inflation should fall to under 3%, so that, along with properly timing the business cycle, are the two conditions needed to initiate long positions, making the outlook for the sector very tactical in 2024,” said Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Strategy at JP Morgan.

“Across commodities, for the second consecutive year, the only structural bullish call we hold is for gold and silver.”

Economic and geopolitical uncertainty tend to be positive drivers for gold, which is widely seen as a safe-haven asset due to its ability to remain a reliable store of value.

"It has low correlation with other asset classes, so can act as insurance during falling markets and times of geopolitical stress."

 

 

Aramco to maintain oil production at 12 million bpd

Saudi Aramco, the world's largest oil-producing company, announced on Tuesday that it has received directives from the Ministry of Energy to maintain its maximum sustainable capacity (MSC) at 12 million barrels per day. This directive puts a hold on previous plans to increase production to 13 million barrels.

The determination of MSC, as outlined in the press release, is a responsibility of the state under the Hydrocarbons Law, which was enacted by Royal Decree M/37 on December 20, 2017. This law provides the framework for Saudi Arabia's oil production strategies and capacity decisions.

Aramco also indicated that it would provide an update on its capital spending guidance when it announces its full-year 2023 results in March. This update is eagerly anticipated by investors and market analysts, as it will provide insights into the company's strategic planning and investment priorities in light of the current market conditions and the ongoing energy transition.