Gold prices to remain on upward trajectory

Gold prices are expected to dip in the near term before climbing to new highs later in the year, peaking at $2,300/ounce (oz) in 2025. This would be driven by further interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve and falling US real yields  

According to a report by JP Morgan Research, this would be driven by further interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve and falling US real yields  

Following the first cut of the last three Fed cutting cycles in 2001, 2007 and 2019, gold prices have followed an upward trajectory.

The commodity soared to an all-time high of $2,135.39/oz at the end of 2023 after a powerful rally was sparked by central bank purchasing and mounting investor concern over the Israel–Hamas and Russia–Ukraine conflicts, the report said.

“Commodities are unlikely to benefit from core inflation in 2024. Inflation should fall to under 3%, so that, along with properly timing the business cycle, are the two conditions needed to initiate long positions, making the outlook for the sector very tactical in 2024,” said Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Strategy at JP Morgan.

“Across commodities, for the second consecutive year, the only structural bullish call we hold is for gold and silver.”

Economic and geopolitical uncertainty tend to be positive drivers for gold, which is widely seen as a safe-haven asset due to its ability to remain a reliable store of value.

"It has low correlation with other asset classes, so can act as insurance during falling markets and times of geopolitical stress."

 

 

UAE new hub of Russian gold

The United Arab Emirates has become a key trade hub for Russian gold since Western sanctions over Ukraine cut Russia's more traditional export routes.

The records, which contain details of nearly a thousand gold shipments in the year since the Ukraine war started, show the Gulf state imported 75.7 tons of Russian gold worth US$4.3 billion - up from just 1.3 tons during 2021.

China and Turkey were the next key destinations, importing about 20 tons each between February 24, 2022 and March 03, 2023. With the UAE, the three countries accounted for 99.8% of the Russian gold exports.

Ever since the Ukraine conflict started, many multinational banks, logistics providers and precious metal refiners stopped handling Russian gold, which had typically been shipped to London, a gold trading and storage hub.

The London Bullion Market Association banned Russian bars made from March 07, 2022, and by the end of August 2022, Britain, the European Union, Switzerland, the United States, Canada and Japan had all banned imports of Russian bullion.

The data shows Russian gold producers quickly found new markets in countries that had not imposed sanctions on Moscow, such as the UAE, Turkey and China.

Louis Marechal, a gold sourcing expert at the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development said there was a risk Russian gold could be melted down and recast and then find its way back into US and European markets with its origin masked.

"If the Russian gold comes in, is recast by a local refiner, sourced by a local bank or trader and then sold on into the market, there you have a risk," he said. "This is why carrying out due diligence is instrumental to end buyers wishing to ensure they respect sanctions regimes."

The UAE government's Gold Bullion Committee said the state operated with clear and robust processes against illicit goods, money laundering and sanctioned entities.

"The UAE will continue to trade openly and honestly, with its international partners, in compliance with all current international norms as set down by the United Nations," it said.

In a bid to further isolate Russia, Washington has warned countries, including the UAE and Turkey, they could lose access to G7 markets if they do business with entities subject to US sanctions.

Ghana to buy oil with gold instead of US dollar

Ghana's government is working on a new policy to buy oil products with gold rather than US dollars, Vice-President Mahamudu Bawumia said on Facebook on Thursday.

The move is meant to tackle dwindling foreign currency reserves coupled with demand for dollars by oil importers, which is weakening the local cedi and increasing living costs.

Ghana's Gross International Reserves stood at around US$6.6 billion at the end of September 2022, equating to less than three months of imports cover. That is down from around US$9.7 billion at the end of last year, according to the government.

“If implemented as planned for the first quarter of 2023, the new policy will fundamentally change our balance of payments and significantly reduce the persistent depreciation of our currency," Bawumia said.

Using gold would prevent the exchange rate from directly impacting fuel or utility prices as domestic sellers would no longer need foreign exchange to import oil products, he explained.

"The barter of gold for oil represents a major structural change," he added.

The proposed policy is uncommon. While countries sometimes trade oil for other goods or commodities, such deals typically involve an oil-producing nation receiving non-oil goods rather than the opposite.

Ghana produces crude oil but it has relied on imports for refined oil products since its only refinery shut down after an explosion in 2017.

Bawumia's announcement was posted as Finance Minister Ken Ofori-Atta announced measures to cut spending and boost revenues in a bid to tackle a spiraling debt crisis.

In a 2023 budget presentation to parliament on Thursday, Ofori-Atta warned the West African nation was at high risk of debt distress and that the cedi's depreciation was seriously affecting Ghana's ability to manage its public debt.

The government is negotiating a relief package with the International Monetary Fund as the cocoa, gold and oil-producing nation faces its worst economic crisis in a generation.