According to The Hill, Israel’s expected ground offensive in
Gaza will be potentially catastrophic for civilian life in Gaza, while also
posing steep risks for Israeli forces and raising the danger of widening a war
with Iran-backed proxy groups.
For the first time in years, Israeli forces will have to
penetrate deep into Gaza, a coastal enclave where thousands of Hamas militants
operate out of an underground network of tunnels, while also hiding among
civilians.
Israel’s stated goal of eliminating the group will require a
long, bloody fight against guerilla combatants known to use human shields in
the densely packed Gaza Strip.
“It’s going to be very, very messy,” said Raphael Cohen, a
senior political scientist at Rand Corporation with expertise on the Middle
East and defense strategy.
“Rooting all that out is not particularly easy. And in order
to do that, that’s a fairly significant military operation and it will take a lot
of time — potentially a lot of casualties.”
Further
complicating the mission is that Israeli forces need to rescue some 150
hostages, including some Americans and other foreign nationals.
And a large-scale attack in Gaza may open a new front in the
war, with the Lebanese militia Hezbollah reportedly warning it will
respond if Israeli forces invade the coastal enclave.
Israeli officials are determined to respond decisively after
Hamas killed more than 1,300 people in a surprise attack last Saturday.
A ground
invasion now appears to be imminent after Israel on Friday ordered the
evacuation of more than one million people in Gaza. However, many people have
nowhere to go, with Egypt loath to open its border to the south. Hamas has also
urged residents not to flee. Israel has blockaded the territory for years and
this week cut off its fuel and electricity in a siege that has spurred warnings
of a humanitarian crisis.
Israeli forces have spent days mopping up the remaining
militants and launching mass air strikes on Gaza that killed more than 1,500
Palestinians. They have also conducted limited raids into Gaza.
Analysts
say the delay so far of a ground invasion is likely part of Israel’s strategy
to pressure Palestinian militants with rocket strikes and to prepare for all
possible contingencies, while integrating some 300,000 reservists into combat
duty.
Phil Andrew, a principal at the global conflict and crisis
consulting firm Pax Group, said it was important to be “listening and
collecting as much information as you can” and ensuring everything is in place
for a rescue mission.
The
trickiest part of the mission will be to locate and safely extract the
hostages, who are likely hidden in various locations throughout Gaza and
subject to the whims of various Hamas factions and individual leaders, rather
than a strict military command structure.
Andrew warned that Israel was conducting a risky
operation by telegraphing an intention to destroy Hamas while also trying to
keep the hostages alive. That could ruin any communications channels needed for
negotiations, he said, and Hamas has previously warned it will kill hostages if
pressed.
Israeli operations into the Gaza Strip will also pose
enormous risks for both its soldiers and Palestinian civilians caught in the crossfire.
Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said at a Friday press
conference that soldiers will not shoot civilians on purpose as they attempt to
destroy Hamas and take these phenomena out of Gaza and out of the Earth.
“Therefore we are asking all the civilians in Gaza City to
go south of Gaza. And the reason is that because we don’t want to harm
them,” he said. “The camouflage of the terrorists is the civil population.
Therefore we need to separate them. So those who want to save their life, please
go south.”
Knox Thames, an international human rights advocate, said
Israel “must avoid civilian casualties.”
“But Hamas often embeds its fire platforms and
organizational nodes within civilian areas, using them as a shield, and when
civilians die, using them as a propaganda message,” Thames said in an emailed
statement.
Bilal Saab, director of the defense and security program at
the Middle East Institute (MEI), said Israel has the capability to massively
degrade Hamas’ military capabilities, but it was a question of how many
casualties of Israeli soldiers and civilians Jerusalem is willing to sacrifice.
Saab
said the stated goal of completely eradicating Hamas will be near impossible
because Hamas has political support, making it even tougher to wipe out than a
traditional terrorist group like ISIS.
“I understand the political logic behind it,” he said. “You
want a message to your population that you are going to extract some heavy
punishment on your opponent, but there’s no way they’re going to be able to defeat
a deeply rooted organization.”
If
Hezbollah is pulled into the war, that may prove even more problematic for
Israel’s military than any trouble inside Gaza itself.
If
Israel were forced to fight against two militant groups backed by Iran, it
would be stretched much thinner and less able to concentrate on its main
objective, eradicating Hamas.
Hezbollah is far better equipped and advanced than Hamas.
The Lebanese militant group, an archenemy of Israel along with its creator
Iran, has already begun firing rockets and artillery in nonstop tit-for-tat
exchanges with Israel.
Saab said the risk of a front opening with Hezbollah was
very real, but added Israel does not have much of a choice.
“If you
are communicating to Hezbollah that you’re so worried about opening a second
front that we’re not going to go after Hamas, that’s going to set a precedent
for the future,” he explained. “They have to show that they are able to handle
multiple fronts.”
