Pakistan Stock Exchange witnesses lackluster week

The week ended on August 25, 2023 remained lackluster, with the KSE-100 index losing 547 points to close at 47,671 level.

The anticipation of heightened inflation had a negative impact on the market, fearing an ad-hoc policy rate hike. However, the recent T-bill auction negated that sentiment, with yields largely maintaining their flat trend as compared to the previous auction.

Now the focus is on September 2023 CPI data and the Monetary Policy Committee meeting scheduled for September 14, 2023.

Nonetheless, owing to a week full of result announcements, market participation witnessed daily trading volume averaging at 206 million shares, as compared to the previous month average of 167 million shares.

The current account shifted from a four-month streak of surplus to a deficit of US$809 million, mainly due to an increase in imports (up 33%MoM) and worker remittances (down 15%MoM) during the month.

Foreign exchange reserves held by the SBP eroded by US$125 million to US$7.9 billion as of August 18, 2023. Additionally, due to import pressures and dividend repatriations, PKR depreciated by 1.74%WoW, to close at PKR301 against the greenback.

Furthermore, throughout the trading week, the gap between the interbank and open market exchange rates remained 4% to 5%. According to the IMF agreement, this gap should not be ±1.25% for 5 consecutive days.

Other major news flows affecting market during the week included: GoP borrowed US$2.89 billion borrowed from multiple financing sources during the first month of the current financial year, 2) Revised GDP growth under PDM government may turn out to be over negative one percent, 3) Power tariff hike, 4) Banking sector spread decreases by 64bps MoM in July, 5) Power generation was up 5% and cost of generation was down 22 percent, 6) RDA inflows touched US$6.487 billion, but faced headwinds from global rates, 7) Election Commission said election not possible before May 2024.

Synthetic & Rayon, Textile Weaving, and REIT were amongst the top performing sectors, while Cable & Electrical Goods, Pharmaceuticals, and Inv. banks/ Inv. cos./ Securities cos. were amongst the worst performers.

Net selling was recorded by Individuals with a net sell of US$8.2 million. Insurance absorbed the selling with a net buy of US$19.0 million.

Top performing scrips during the week were: SCBPL, HMB, IBFL, BAFL, and MARI, while top laggards included: AGP, PSX, GADT, PAEL, and FABL.

Market is expected to sustain a positive outlook, driven by a series of favorable developments with talks being commenced between the IMF and the caretaker government and the confidence of bilateral partners.

Given the ongoing trend of significant currency devaluation, analysts recommend investors to consider investing in companies with revenue in US$ (Tech and E&Ps). Another viable approach is to focus on companies that offer healthy dividend yields or companies with strong valuations.

 

 

 

 

Turkey: Navigation affected due to wildfires

More than 150 vessels, including 23 tanker and 33 dry bulk vessels were halted at the northern and southern entrances of Turkey’s Dardanelles straits amidst raging wildfires in coastal regions, with northbound shipping resuming by late Thursday

Ship traffic resumed on Thursday in one direction in Turkey's Dardanelles Strait, its forestry minister said, as firefighters brought a major blaze in the northwest Canakkale region under control.

The strait, which links the Aegean Sea and Black Sea to the north, is a major shipping route for commodities such as oil and grains.

More than 150 ships had been halted at the north and south entrances to the Dardanelles on Wednesday evening to allow for helicopters and planes to scoop up water to douse the flames.

"We have brought the fire under control before 48 hours were up ... Our only consolation is that there has been no loss of life," Forestry Minister Ibrahim Yumakli told reporters.

Aerial vehicles will continue cooling efforts throughout the day on Thursday and ship traffic in the Dardanelles resumed in one direction, he said, without specifying which one.

Shipping agency Tribeca said northbound ships would be allowed to transit the Dardanelles after 0800 GMT on Thursday.

Helicopters and land vehicles battled after darkness fell on Wednesday to contain the fire and ship traffic resumed for several hours before being halted again just after midnight GMT.

More than 1,200 people from 11 villages have been evacuated from the path of the fire, which broke out in Cannakale province on Tuesday and was fanned by high temperatures, dry air and strong winds.

Some 90 people suffered injuries from the fire, which affected 4,080 hectares around 11861 acres, including forest and agricultural land, authorities said. No deaths were reported.

 

Iran completes drilling of 42 oil and gas wells

National Iranian Drilling Company (NIDC) has completed drilling operations of 42 oil and gas wells during the first five months of the current Iranian calendar year.

According to Masoud Afshar, Deputy Head of NIDC for drilling operations, three of the drilled wells were development and the rest were work-over ones, Shana reported.

The official stated that during the mentioned time span NIDC managed to dig eight more wells as compared to the figure for the same period last year.

As reported, 35 of the drilled wells were in the operational zone of the National Iranian South Oil Company (NISOC), one well was drilled in the fields under the supervision of the Iranian Offshore Oil Company (IOOC), three were in the fields under the operation of Petroleum Engineering and Development Company (PEDEC), and three wells were drilled in fields developed by private contractors.

According to the official, currently, 63 of the company’s rigs are active and 10 are being overhauled.

Over 43,416 meters of drilling were conducted for the mentioned wells, the official said, noting, “We are trying to play our role optimally by using the company’s maximum operational capacities in order to realize the Oil Ministry's plans to increase production.”

Considering the National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC)’s strategies for strengthening the presence of domestic companies in the development of the country’s oil fields, NIDC, as a major NIOC subsidiary, has been supporting such companies by lending those drilling rigs and other necessary equipment.

 

BRICS getting bigger to reshuffle world order

Major emerging market nations invited top oil exporter Saudi Arabia, along with Iran, Egypt, Argentina, Ethiopia and the United Arab Emirates, to join their bloc in an ambitious push to expand global influence. The new BRICS members bring together several of the largest energy producers with the developing world’s biggest consumers, suddenly giving the bloc outsized economic clout. With most of the world’s energy trade taking place in dollars, the expansion could also enhance its ability to push more trade to alternative currencies.

In deciding in favour of an expansion - the bloc's first in 13 years - BRICS leaders left the door open to future enlargement as dozens more countries voiced interest in joining a grouping they hope can level the global playing field.

The expansion adds economic heft to BRICS, whose current members are China, Brazil, Russia, India and South Africa. It could also amplify its declared ambition to become a champion of the Global South.

The long-standing tensions could linger between members who want to forge the grouping into a counterweight to the West - notably China, Russia and now Iran - and those that continue to nurture close ties to the United States and Europe.

"This membership expansion is historic," Chinese President Xi Jinping, the bloc's most stalwart proponent of enlargement, said. "It shows the determination of BRICS countries for unity and cooperation with the broader developing countries."

Originally an acronym coined by Goldman Sachs chief economist Jim O'Neill in 2001, the bloc was founded as an informal four-nation club in 2009 and added South Africa a year later in its only previous expansion.

The six new candidates will formally become members on January 01, 2024, South African President Cyril Ramaphosa said when he named the countries during a three-day leaders' summit he is hosting in Johannesburg.

"BRICS has embarked on a new chapter in its effort to build a world that is fair, a world that is just, a world that is also inclusive and prosperous," Ramaphosa said.

"We have consensus on the first phase of this expansion process and other phases will follow."

The countries invited to join reflect individual BRICS members' desires to bring allies into the club.

Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva had vocally lobbied for neighbour Argentina's inclusion while Egypt has close commercial ties with Russia and India.

The entry of oil powers Saudi Arabia and UAE highlights their drift away from the United States' orbit and ambition to become global heavyweights in their own right.

Russia and Iran have found common cause in their shared struggle against US-led sanctions and diplomatic isolation, with their economic ties deepening in the wake of Moscow's invasion of Ukraine.

"BRICS is not competing with anyone," Russia's Vladimir Putin, who is attending the summit remotely due to an international warrant for alleged war crimes, said on Thursday.

"But it's also obvious that this process of the emerging of a new world order still has fierce opponents."

Iran's President Ebrahim Raisi celebrated his country's BRICS invitation with a swipe at Washington, saying on Iranian television network Al Alam that the expansion shows that the unilateral approach is on the way to decay.

Beijing is close to Ethiopia and the country's inclusion also speaks to South Africa's desire to amplify Africa's voice in global affairs.

United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres attended Thursday's expansion announcement, reflecting the bloc's growing influence. He echoed BRICS' longstanding calls for reforms of the UN Security Council, International Monetary Fund and World Bank.

"Today's global governance structures reflect yesterday's world," he said. "For multilateral institutions to remain truly universal, they must reform to reflect today's power and economic realities."

BRICS countries have economies that are vastly different in scale and governments with often divergent foreign policy goals, a complicating factor for the bloc's consensus decision-making model.

Though home to about 40% of the world's population and a quarter of global gross domestic product, internal divisions have long hobbled BRICS ambitions of becoming a major player on the world stage. It has long been criticized for failing to live up to its grand ambitions.

The regularly repeated desire of its member states to wean themselves off the dollar has never materialized. Its most concrete achievement, the New Development Bank, is now struggling in the face of sanctions against founding shareholder Russia.

Bloc heavyweight China has long called for an expansion of BRICS as it seeks to challenge Western dominance, a strategy shared by Russia.

Other BRICS members support fostering the creation of a multi-polar global order. But Brazil and India have both also been forging closer ties with the West.

Brazil's Lula has rejected the idea that the bloc should seek to rival the United States and Group of Seven wealthy economies. However, as he departed South Africa on Thursday, he said he saw no contradiction in bringing in Iran - a historical arch-foe of Washington - if it advanced the cause of the developing world.

"We can't deny the geopolitical importance of Iran and other countries that will join BRICS. ... What matters is not the person who governs but the importance of the country."

 

United States seeking military cooperation with Bangladesh

A two-day bilateral dialogue between Bangladesh and the United States began in Dhaka today with an aim to discuss cooperation on a myriad of defence topics. The aim of this dialogue is to create an opportunity for wide-ranging discussions on military cooperation between the two countries, said ISPR.

The dialogue will officially end on August 24.

Director General at the Bangladesh Armed Forces Division Brig Gen Husain Muhammad Masihur Rahman is leading the Bangladesh side while Director of Strategic Planning and Policy of the US Indo-Pacific Command Brig Gen Thomas J James is leading the US delegation.

Senior officials of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Armed Forces Division, Border Guard Bangladesh, and Bangladesh Coast Guard were present on behalf of Bangladesh.

 “The United States and Bangladesh share a vision to ensure the Indo-Pacific region is free, open, peaceful, and secure. In pursuit of these mutual objectives, the Bangladesh Armed Forces Division and Indo-Pacific Command will conduct the bilateral defence dialogue in Dhaka,” US Embassy Spokesperson Bryan Schiller said.

This dialogue, he said, will feature senior officers and civilians from the US and Bangladeshi militaries.

“They will discuss military education, defence articles, and upcoming military exercises, including next year’s disaster response exercise and exchange,” said the spokesperson.

This dialogue, he said, is part of a comprehensive relationship between two countries’ defence establishments, which features cooperation on a myriad of defence topics.

The US said they are encouraged that Bangladesh’s Indo-Pacific Outlook declares Bangladesh’s vision for a “free, open, peaceful, secure, and inclusive Indo-Pacific for the shared prosperity for all.

The bilateral defence dialogue between Bangladesh and the US started with a joint declaration in 2012. Since then, every year, the dialogue has taken place alternately in Bangladesh and the USA. The 9th defence dialogue was held on 17-18 May 2022 at Honolulu, Hawaii.

The purpose of this dialogue was to facilitate a broad discussion on bilateral defence and military cooperation as a complement to the strategic dialogue.

Over the years, the two countries have enjoyed cordial diplomatic relations and partnered on a wide range of security issues, including border security, maritime security, counterterrorism, peacekeeping, defence trade, and defence institution building.

The two governments continue to work together to advance a shared vision of a free, open, inclusive, peaceful, and secure Indo-Pacific region.

Earlier, the US delegation had a courtesy meeting with Principal Staff Officer (PSO) of the Armed Forces Division Lieutenant General Waker-Uz-Zaman.

 

 

Can BRICS currency be adopted?

Brazilian President called on Wednesday for the BRICS nations to create a common currency for trade and investment between each other, as a means of reducing their vulnerability to dollar exchange rate fluctuations. Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva made the proposal at a BRICS summit in Johannesburg.

Officials and economists have pointed out the difficulties involved in such a project, given the economic, political and geographic disparities between Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa.

Brazilian president doesn't believe nations that don't use the dollar should be forced to trade in the currency, and he has also advocated for a common currency in the Mercosur bloc of South American countries.

A BRICS currency increases our payment options and reduces our vulnerabilities, he told the summit's opening plenary session.

South African officials had said a BRICS currency was not on the agenda for the summit.

I n July, India's foreign minister said, "There is no idea of a BRICS currency". Its foreign secretary said before departing for the summit that boosting trade in national currencies would be discussed.

Russian President Vladimir Putin said the gathering, which he attended via video link, would discuss switching trade between member countries away from the dollar to national currencies.

China has not commented on the idea. President Xi Jinping spoke at the summit of promoting the reform of the international financial and monetary system.

Building a BRICS currency would be a political project, South African central bank governor Lesetja Kganyago told a radio station in July.

"If you want it, you'll have to get a banking union, you'll have to get a fiscal union, you've got to get macroeconomic convergence," Kganyago said.

"Importantly, you need a disciplining mechanism for the countries that fall out of line with it... Plus they will need a common central bank... where does it get located?"

Trade imbalances are also a problem, Herbert Poenisch, a senior fellow at Zhejiang University, wrote in a blog for think-tank OMFIF.

All BRICS member countries have China as their main trading partner and little trade with each other.

BRICS leaders have said they want to use their national currencies more instead of the dollar, which strengthened sharply last year as the Federal Reserve raised interest rates and Russia invaded Ukraine, making dollar debt and many imports more expensive.

Russia's sanctions-imposed exile from global financial systems last year also fuelled speculation that non-western allies would shift away from the dollar.

"The objective, irreversible process of de-dollarisation of our economic ties is gaining momentum," Putin told the summit on Tuesday.

The greenback's share of official foreign exchange reserves fell to a 20-year low of 58% in the final quarter of 2022, and 47% when adjusted for exchange rate changes, according to International Monetary Fund data.

The dollar still dominates global trade. It is on one side of almost 90% of global foreign exchange transactions, according to Bank of International Settlements Data.

De-dollarizing would need countless exporters and importers, as well as borrowers, lenders and currency traders across the world, to independently decide to use other currencies.

 

Chinese President calls for BRICS unity

Chinese President Xi Jinping has called for unity among his BRICS counterparts at a summit in South Africa on Wednesday as he pushed the case for expanding the grouping to face a global period of turbulence and transformation.

Leaders of the bloc of leading developing nations Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa are meeting in Johannesburg with discussions around establishing a framework and criteria for admitting new members topping the agenda.

While all BRICS members have publicly expressed support for growing the bloc, divisions remain over how much and how quickly.

Bloc heavyweight China has long pushed for expansion and views its deteriorating relations with Washington as well as heightened global tensions resulting from the Ukraine war as adding urgency to the enlargement project.

"The world is undergoing major shifts, division and regrouping ... it has entered a new period of turbulence and transformation," Xi said.

"We, the BRICS countries, should always bear in mind our founding purpose of strengthening ourselves through unity."

BRICS group countries have economies that are vastly different in scale and governments that often seem to have few foreign policy goals in common, complicating decision-making.

The economy of China for example, is more than 40 times larger than South Africa's, Africa's most developed country.

Russia, isolated by the United States and Europe over its invasion of Ukraine, is also pushing to quickly grow BRICS and forge it into a counterweight to the West.

Russian President Vladimir Putin, who is wanted under an international arrest warrant for alleged war crimes, sees BRICS membership as a way of showing the West he still has friends.

He did not travel to South Africa but used a video address to attack Western powers.

"I want to note that it was the desire to maintain their hegemony in the world, the desire of some countries to maintain this hegemony that led to the severe crisis in Ukraine," he said.

South Africa's President Cyril Ramaphosa said on Tuesday that he and Xi had similar positions on BRICS expansion. But pushback has come from Brazil and India, which have both forged closer ties with the West.

Brazil's President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva on Tuesday rejected the idea the bloc should seek to rival the United States and Group of Seven wealthy economies.

While he is pushing for neighbour Argentina to join, he said any new members would need to meet certain conditions, so the group does not become a "Tower of Babel".

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi said on Wednesday his country, which is wary of Chinese dominance, fully supported expansion.

However, an Indian official familiar with discussions late on Tuesday between the leaders said Modi indicated there have to be ground rules about how it should happen and who can join.

India and China periodically clash over their disputed Himalayan border.

More than 40 countries have expressed interest in joining BRICS, say South African officials, 22 of whom have formally asked to be admitted.

Details of criteria for joining could be included in a joint declaration due to be finalized on Wednesday.

Beyond the enlargement question, boosting the use of member states' local currencies in trade and financial transactions to lessen dependency of the US dollar is also on the summit agenda.

South African organizers had said there would be no discussions of a common BRICS currency, an idea floated by Brazil as an alternative to dollar-dependence.

At least 15 potential new member countries - including Saudi Arabia, Algeria and Argentina - are under consideration to join the bloc's New Development Bank (NDB), its chief financial officer said on Wednesday.

The NDB, which has long tapped China's capital market for funding, is registering an Indian rupee bond program worth US$2.5 billion over five years, after it issued its first South African rand bond last week.