Friday, 30 June 2023

US didn't anticipate Afghanistan exit chaos

Key failures by both the Trump and Biden administrations contributed to a chaotic and deadly end to the two-decade US presence in Afghanistan, according to a State Department review that was published Friday. 

Among these included that senior officials did not prepare for worst case scenarios and appreciate how quickly the situation could devolve, key leadership roles were not empowered with authority and firmly held policy positions failed to take into account dissenting opinions.

The review focused on the State Department’s responsibilities during the period where the US was ending its military presence in Afghanistan, offering recommendations on how the agency could better prepare for and respond to extraordinary crises in unstable security environments.

The report, called the After Action Review, was commissioned by Secretary of State Antony Blinken in the aftermath of the US pullout of Afghanistan, which formally ended on August 31, 2021.

It was released with little notice and fanfare in the afternoon of a holiday weekend, when Congress is out of session and the administration is unlikely to face public questioning from journalists at press briefings. 

It also comes nearly two years after US officials first committed to critically reviewing the pullout from Afghanistan, which marked one of the lowest moments for President Biden’s term and has contributed to criticism, and raised concern over how the US government prepares for evacuating Americans in times of crisis.

While the US managed to evacuate more than 120,000 people from Afghanistan over the course of two weeks, including more than 85,000 Afghans, the disorganized effort led to a swell of people rushing to the gates of Hamid Karzai International Airport over several days, and a subsequent suicide bomb blast killing 13 US service members and more than 150 Afghans.

The administration drew intense criticism for the chaos and the State Department in particular is the target of Republican criticisms that the agency failed to prepare for a worst-case scenario and that resulted in more than 100,000 Afghan allies left behind.

The report notes that diplomats serving in Kabul that were forced to shutter their operations at the embassy and establish an ad-hoc evacuation plan at the airport confronted a task of unprecedented scale and complexity.

IMF standby arrangement for Pakistan: Too little too late

Pakistan has finally entered into a new US$3 billion short term Standby Arrangement (SBA) spread over 9 months. The country has entered into such SBA in the past in 2000 and 2008.

The deal — subject to approval by the IMF Board in July — comes after an eight-month delay and offers some respite to Pakistan, which is battling an acute balance of payments crisis and falling foreign exchange reserves.

The positive point is that the US$3 billion funding, spread over nine months, is higher than expected for Pakistan. The country was awaiting the release of the remaining US$2.5 billion from a US$6.5 billion bailout package agreed in 2019, which expires on June 30, 2023.

The new stand-by arrangement is built on the 2019 program, IMF official Nathan Porter said in a statement on Thursday, adding that Pakistan’s economy had faced several challenges in recent times, including devastating floods last year and commodity price hikes following the war in Ukraine.

“As a result of these shocks as well as some policy missteps — including shortages from constraints on the functioning of the FX market — economic growth has stalled. Inflation, including for essential items, is very high,” he added.

“Despite the authorities’ efforts to reduce imports and the trade deficit, reserves have declined to very low levels. Liquidity conditions in the power sector also remain acute,” Porter said in a statement.

“Given these challenges, the new arrangement would provide a policy anchor and a framework for financial support from multilateral and bilateral partners in the period ahead,” he said.

The IMF’s press release states, “The IMF staff and the Pakistani authorities have reached a staff-level agreement on policies to be supported by a Stand-By Arrangement (SBA).”

It added that the new SBA will “support the authorities’ immediate efforts to stabilize the economy from recent external shocks, preserve macroeconomic stability and provide a framework for financing from multilateral and bilateral partners”.

“The new SBA will also create space for social and development spending through improved domestic revenue mobilization and careful spending execution to help address the needs of the Pakistani people,” the IMF said.

It further said, “Steadfast policy implementation is key for Pakistan to overcome its current challenges, including through greater fiscal discipline, a market-determined exchange rate to absorb external pressures, and further progress on reforms, particularly in the energy sector, to promote climate resilience, and to help improve the business climate.”

It added that the budget advances a primary surplus of around 0.4% of GDP by taking some steps to broaden the tax base and increase tax collection from under taxed sectors, as well as improving progressivity, while ensuring space to strengthen support for the vulnerable through the BISP (Benazir Income Support Program)”.

“It will be important that the budget is executed as planned, and the authorities resist pressures for unbudgeted spending or tax exemptions in the period ahead,” the lender emphasized.

It went on to note that the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) has “withdrawn the guidance on import prioritization and is committed to ensuring the full market determination of the exchange rate”.

“Going forward, the SBP should remain proactive to reduce inflation, which particularly affects the most vulnerable, and maintain a foreign exchange framework free of restrictions on payments and transfers for current international transactions and multiple currency practices,” the IMF highlighted.

 

Thursday, 29 June 2023

Biden Iran envoy under investigation

Rob Malley, a US special envoy for Iran, has been placed on leave due to a security clearance suspension earlier this year which resulted in an investigation.

A US official told CNN Thursday that his clearance was suspended after the State Department conducted an investigation into the possible mishandling of classified documents. While Malley remained at his post amid the investigation, he was barred from accessing classified information, the official added.

State Department spokesperson Matt Miller confirmed that Malley was benched, adding that Abram Paley will serve as the acting special envoy to Iran for the US, according to CNN. 

“Rob Malley is on leave and Abram Paley is serving as acting Special Envoy for Iran and leading the Department’s work in this area,” Miller told the news outlet. 

Malley, who was appointed to his position two years ago, confirmed that his security clearance is under review, noting in a statement that he expects the investigation to be resolved favorably and soon.

“I have been informed that my security clearance is under review. I have not been provided any further information, but I expect the investigation to be resolved favorably and soon. In the meantime, I am on leave,” Malley told CNN.

The move comes as Malley, who was a prominent player in working to secure the release of detained Americans in Iran, has remained excluded from the ongoing Iran nuclear deal talks. 

The Hill has reached out to the State Department for additional comment. Department officials last year said that reviving the nuclear deal with Iran, which was nixed under former President Trump in 2018, was not their main focus.

This came as protests between Iranian authorities and residents intensified following the death of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini in the custody of the country’s Morality Police, CNN reported. 

Republican lawmakers recently warned the Biden administration about pursuing an agreement with Iran that would provide sanctions relief without approval from Congress.

 

Mohammed Bin Salman holds annual reception for foreign dignitaries performing Hajj

On behalf of King Salman, Crown Prince and Prime Minister Mohammed Bin Salman held his annual reception on Thursday for heads of state, Islamic dignitaries, guests of Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques, government bodies, and heads of delegations and pilgrim affairs offices performing Hajj this year.

At the Royal Court of Mina Palace in Makkah, the guests were led Malaysia’s King Al-Sultan Abdullah Ri’ayatuddin Al-Mustafa Billah Shah, Senegalese President Macky Sall, Pakistan’s President Arif Alvi, Bangladesh’s President Mohammed Shahabuddin, Vice President of Maldives Faisal Naseem, Prime Minister of Egypt, Dr. Mustafa Madbouly, Prime Minister of Lebanon Najib Mikati, Prime Minister of Somalia Hamza Abdi Barre, Prime Minister of Niger Ouhoumoudou Mahamadou, Prime Minister of Palestine Mohammad Ibrahim Shtayyeh, and the Speakers of the House of Representatives of several Islamic countries.

In his speech, Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman said, “The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, since its founding, is honored to serve the Two Holy Mosques and take care of them, and has made this at the forefront of its interests.”

“The Kingdom has taken all efforts and harnessed all capabilities to provide comfort and reassurance to pilgrims.”

He added: “We ask Allah to perpetuate safety and security for us and the Islamic Ummah.”

Crown Prince Mohammed wished pilgrims success to complete their rituals in these blessed days and to return them to their homes safely.

Current status of Iran-China Trade

Trade became increasingly difficult to track as China underreported its purchases of Iranian oil to avoid US sanctions. Its companies reportedly continued to buy Iranian oil through intermediaries, many in Malaysia and the United Arab Emirates.

The biggest obstacle to Iran’s trade with China in the 21st century has been the United States—for its economic might and wealth, massive consumer base, and diplomatic clout.

Lately, Iran’s oil exports to China notably trended upward.  But Tehran was forced to sell its petroleum exports at discounted prices to lure businesses that feared US financial penalties on third parties.  

In March 2021, during the final months of Rouhani’s presidency, Iran signed a 25-year strategic agreement focused largely on strengthening economic and security cooperation – with China. “China is a friend for hard times,” said Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif.  

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said that China firmly supports Iran in safeguarding its state sovereignty and national dignity. During the announcement in Tehran, he called on the United States to abandon the Iran sanctions and remove its long arm of jurisdictional measures that have been aimed at China, among others.

Iran’s turn to the East accelerated after the election of hardliner President Ebrahim Raisi. Raisi and his team think that the 21st century belongs to Asia and rising powers there, Nasser Hadian, a University of Tehran political scientist, told The Iran Primer. 

Amid the shifting world order, they see China as the leader of an emerging Eastern bloc that includes Russia, Pakistan, and Iran. 

In 2021, Iranian oil exports to China reportedly averaged 818,000 barrels per day, although Beijing did not issue official numbers. For the first five months of 2023, it averaged about 1 million barrels per day.  

By 2023, Tehran sought a strategic relationship with Beijing because of its status as a rising global power and a potential partner in offsetting the impact of Western sanctions. But China primarily viewed Iran as an energy source. Beijing also viewed Tehran as a way to balance its ties—and diversify energy sources—in the volatile Middle East. 

Deepening ties with the Islamic Republic was also a means of ensuring stability in the Middle East, which China relied on for more than half its oil. Beijing worried that extraordinary economic pain in Iran may translate into more aggressive behavior on the international stage, which was a part of the reason for trade with Tehran, Murphy told The Iran Primer. 

Economically, the United States became China’s largest trade partner in the 2000s. By 2022, trade between the world’s two largest economies totaled US$759 billion—or 12% of China’s global trade. In contrast, China’s trade with Iran was slightly less than US$16 billion—or 0.25% of China’s global trade.  

Diplomatically, more than 1,000 US sanctions on Iran—for its nuclear program, missile proliferation, support for terrorism, and human rights abuses—also deterred China from deeper economic integration. Chinese companies face third-party sanctions if they are caught buying goods from Iran.  

Due to both factors, China has increasingly turned to trade with other Middle East countries. Its trade in 2022 with Saudi Arabia, Iran’s biggest rival in the Muslim world, was US$67 billion—or four times larger than the almost US$16 billion trade with Iran.

China’s trade with Israel, Iran’s nemesis in the Middle East, was US$25 billion—or 60% higher than trade with Iran.

“The Iran-China relationship was still quite transactional,” Murphy said. “It is a decreasingly important economic relationship in comparison to other powers in the region. China wants Iran to feel included and not engage in destabilizing behavior.”  

 

UECC, GoodFuels and NYK complete biofuel bunkering

According to Seatrade Maritime News, UECC has successfully completed the first biofuel bunkering of one of its chartered vessels in partnership with NYK and GoodFuels.

Emerald Leader received 470 tons of the B30 blend of biofuel and VLSFO at the port of Vlissingen, Netherlands, on 27 May, 2023. The fuel was delivered by Dutch biofuel company GoodFuels.

UECC joint-owner NYK offered technical support for the operation and will continue to monitor performance of the fuel with UECC. The vessel connects the Easter Mediterranean and Northern Europe on UECCs North South trade.

"This momentous delivery of next-generation biofuel represents another significant step forward in our sustainability journey," said Daniel Gent, Energy and Sustainability Manager for UECC.

GoodFuels claims its biofuels can reduce CO₂ emissions by up to 90% as compared to fossil fuels, and that it sources sustainable feedstocks that do not compete with food production, do no cause deforestation and are 100% waste or residue.

"We are proud to partner with GoodFuels and NYK to bring this innovative and environmentally friendly solution to our customers.”

Bernard van Haeringen, Commercial Manager at GoodFuels said, "We are thrilled to partner with UECC and NYK to deliver our advanced sustainable biofuel for the first time to m/v Emerald Leader. This collaboration showcases the commitment of all parties involved to combating climate change and accelerating the energy transition in the shipping industry. We are confident that biofuels will play a crucial role in decarburizing the maritime sector."

 

Wednesday, 28 June 2023

Quick end to Wagner insurrection upsets West

A short-lived armed mutiny in Russia was a well thought out and planned operation aiming to take over power in the country, says Russian deputy head of the Security Council Dmitry Medvedev.

When a country backed by the US-led NATO, with upwards of US$100 billion in sophisticated weapon shipments cannot counter Russian forces, it is quite impossible to imagine a single unit succeeding in a coup attempt. 

Life has returned to normal in Russia to the disappointment of NATO and its allies. 

Western media had always referred to Wagner PMC, whose members have been fighting in Ukraine as part of Russia's special military operation as mercenaries.

During the quick mutiny attempt, they were no longer referred to as mercenaries anymore in the Western news narrative, as Yevgeny Prigozhin and some of his forces had switched from battling NATO-backed Ukrainian forces to fighting against the Russian Federation. 

The US news outlets have cited sources as saying US intelligence agencies had known in advance that Prigozhin was planning a major move against the Russian government. 

The US is said to have deliberately avoided informing Russian authorities about the plan in an attempt to see how far Wagner PMC can go to inflict internal strife in Russia. 

Throughout the day of unrest in Russia, not a single drop of blood was shed. 

Many observers are of the belief that Prigozhin had been in touch with foreign intelligence agencies that have been trying to carry out the same mission as Prigozhin, but through other measures, in what Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has called all-out hybrid warfare against his country. 

Western leaders have also been left frustrated as during the attempted coup, Russian military leaders, politicians, senior officials and the public came out in support of Putin and rallied around him in a strong sign of support for the Russian leader. 

Senior Russian officials had warned the West against using the mutiny attempt to advance their Russophobic goals, saying this would prove futile.

Prigozhin, head of the Russian private military company Wagner group, and his aides began the insurrection early on Saturday and ended by night. It was ended in a deal brokered by Belarus. 

The Wagner leader's adventure came to a swift halt following an agreement with the Kremlin, and Prigozhin called off his mutiny plans in return for security guarantees. 

As part of the agreement, it has been reported that Prigozhin has left Russia for Belarus while his Wagner fighters will be absorbed into the Russian military.
The Russian Federal Security Service has also dropped a criminal case over charges of a call for an armed rebellion.

Prigozhin ended the mutiny with the knowledge that his Wagner unit was heavily outmatched by the Russian military. His mission against Russia was similar to that of the US-led NATO military alliance, which has so far sent about US$100 billion worth of weapons to Ukraine to fight Russia. 

The armed contractors, who take their military orders from the commander of chief of the Russian armed forces, managed to seize several army headquarters in the southern Russian border city of Rostov-on-Don, while others forces tried to make their way to Moscow.

Sergey Surovikin, the deputy commander of the Russian joint forces in Moscow's special military operation, called on Wagner PMC to comply with President Putin’s order and to resolve all issues peacefully.

Wagner PMC has been leading the fight for the Ukrainian city of Bakhmut, in what has been the longest and deadliest battle between Russian and Ukrainian forces since the conflict erupted in February 2021.

Some analysts believe it showed the combat expertise that the Wagner armed forces lacked by stretching out the battle for too long and allowing Ukraine the time to carefully plan for its counter-offensive. 

Prigozhin began the attempted mutiny by claiming that his forces had been hit with an airstrike, accusing the Russian military leadership of killing members of his unit in Ukraine with the air attack. He failed to present any evidence to back up his allegation. Medvedev described the accusation as nonsense. 

The former Russian President pointed out that given the high degree of the attempted mutiny's preparedness, the professional coordination of action and the quality management of troop movements, it is possible to speak of a thought-out military plan and the participation in the mutiny of the individuals who earlier served in the elite units of the Russian Armed Forces or, quite possibly, of foreign specialists as well. 

Russian presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov told journalists that an agreement was reached that PMC Wagner troops would return to their camps and places of deployment. Some of them, if they wish to do so, can later ink contracts with the Defense Ministry," Peskov said. "It also applies to fighters, who decided against taking part in this armed mutiny”.

"They have even requested the assistance of the traffic police as well as other help to return to their permanent places of deployment," Peskov added in remarks published by TASS.

Over the past six months, Prigozhin had been building a feud with Russia's Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu and Russia's chief of the general staff Valery Gerasimov. 

Putin had called on the businessman behind Wagner to settle any of his differences in a peaceful manner. Prigozhin chose the opposite, and that has raised eyebrows about what his true intentions had been and who was acting behind him.

A convoy of his forces crossed the border from the battlefield in Ukraine to a Russian border city, at one point taking full control of it, before the Russian military swiftly regained authority. 

His units have no aircrafts so there was no chance of success by his armed mutiny. The Russian military could have wiped out all his forces when they crossed the border, with Moscow enjoying powerful air superiority. 

Since the conflict in Ukraine, officials in Kyiv have repeatedly complained about a lack of advanced warplanes to match Russia's Air Force.