Zelensky to visit US Capitol in person

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is expected to visit the United States Capitol in person on Wednesday, sources confirmed to The Hill. 

The visit is not set stone, but hinges on security, according to a second source familiar with the planning. The media leaks, the source said, are not helping. 

Sen. Chris Coons confirmed the plans to The Hill. If the visit does materialize, it would likely mark the first time the Ukrainian president has left his country since Russia launched its invasion on February 24, 2022.

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi sent a letter to lawmakers on Tuesday encouraging them to be present for a very special focus on Democracy Wednesday night.

The visit comes as Zelensky, his top military officials and aides have warned that Russia is planning to renew a large-scale ground invasion of Ukraine, and as the country suffers under devastating aerial attacks that have destroyed its energy and electricity infrastructure entering the winter season.

Congress on Tuesday proposed to provide Ukraine with US$45 billion in military, economic and other assistance related to Russia’s war against the country, as part of the omnibus spending package lawmakers hope to pass by the end of the week.

Coons said Zelensky’s visit was a terrific opportunity with Congress set to pass another major package of support for Ukraine.

“That President Zelensky is going to make his first trip outside the country since the war began to speak to us, to thank us and to challenge us to continue to support the Ukrainian people I think is the perfect ending to two years where President Biden has had some landmark successes,” he said.

Zelensky in addresses to Ukrainians has said that this week is extremely important for Ukraine and will be quite active for us in terms of international events and negotiations.

Zelensky addressed Congress virtually in March, urging lawmakers to provide Ukraine with more military support. And Zelensky’s wife, Olena Zelensky, visited the Capitol in person in July to highlight the humanitarian horrors facing the civilian victims of the conflict.

Zelensky’s visit would be a profound political statement, particularly if he appeared in a Capitol that was itself the target of an anti-democratic mob last year.

Pelosi was a target of that violence, and since then, Democrats have warned of the dangers of eroding democratic norms — a message that’s gained resonance since former President Trump entered the 2024 presidential race.

Senate Majority Leader Charles Schumer referred questions about Wednesday’s plans to Pelosi. Asked if he was comfortable with the security situation around Zelensky’s potential visit, Schumer said, that’s up to the security. 

Zelensky, since the Russian invasion began, has emerged as the global symbol of defiance in the face of authoritarianism. And having him on hand this week to promote the importance of preserving democratic traditions would mark a significant capstone for Pelosi, who is soon to step out of leadership after two decades at the top of the party.

Iran claims busting Mossad spy cell

Iran’s Ministry of Intelligence announced that it had dismantled a spy cell run by Israel’s Mossad that was planning to carry out acts of sabotage in the country’s defense industry through security marketing.

The Iranian intelligence forces uncovered a plot by a Mossad espionage network to gather information from Iranian knowledge-based companies that cooperate with Iran’s defense industries, Tasnim reported. 

The Israeli regime’s Mossad spy agency hired data broker Frank Genin, who introduced himself as the chief of a spare parts manufacturer company and was able to contact several Iranian companies and employees, according to Tasnim. 

The Mossad agent then invited his coworkers to a seminar in Malaysia, where he introduced them to another Mossad agent, Hadrien Lavaux.

As a cover-up, Lavaux has been the managing director of Triple A Industries, an Aerospace advanced alloys and composites company that was established in Singapore in 2017. Since then, the company started communicating with Iranian companies that provide carbon fibers, resin, and other metal alloys.

It is worth mentioning that Triple A Industries’ website says that Frank Genin is the chairman of the company, which explains the close cooperation between Genin and Lavaux.

Lavaux’s associates in Iran attended different exhibitions, monitored scientific conferences, and identified the latest needs of Iran’s defense industries.

They later began to identify the chiefs, salespersons and important employees in companies that are active in the field of defense industries. These employees were invited to multiple front conferences abroad, including in Turkey, Hungary, Oman and Georgia, and their trips were fully covered, Press TV reported.

However, Iran’s intelligence forces had kept a close eye on these trips and were able to track down the network.

Earlier, four thugs who had been found guilty of having connections to Israel's Mossad spy agency were put to death early, the Iranian judiciary announced. The executions were carried out earlier this month. 

The four convicted individuals were named as Hossein Ordukhanzadeh, Shahin Imani Mahmoudabad, Milad Ashrafi Atbatan, and Manouchehr Shahbandi Bejandi in the judiciary's announcement.

The four men were detained by the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps in June (IRGC). They were eventually given the death penalty by a court for both kidnapping and intelligence collaboration with the Zionist regime.

According to an earlier IRGC statement, the squad had received training from Mossad personnel on how to utilize combat weapons for kidnapping operations while being reimbursed with bitcoins.

The capture of the members of the gang who worked with Mossad was revealed by the IRGC public relations department in June.

The group used to kidnap individuals, steal and destroy private and public property, and force their victims to make false confessions.

They were instructed by a Mossad officer in Sweden, the Mizan news agency said.

The gang members abducted victims and collected bitcoin as ransom. They have admitted that they worked with foreign intelligence services and were paid to undermine Iran's security. The gang network was connected to the Israeli spy service by Hossein Ordukhanzadeh, who had been in jail in Greece from 2014-017 for trafficking humans from Turkey to Greece.

 

Blast shuts part of Russia-Ukraine gas pipeline

A blast ripped through a gas pipeline in central Russia, killing three people and disrupting some of the limited amount of Russian gas that is still reaching Europe, reported Reuters on Tuesday.

The flow of gas through a section of the Urengoi-Pomary-Uzhhorod pipeline that takes gas from Russia's Arctic to Europe via Ukraine had been halted at 1050 GMT, the local officials said on the Telegram messaging app.

Oleg Nikolayev, governor of the Republic of Chuvashia, told state TV that three people, who were carrying out servicing work, died in the accident, while another, a driver, "was in a state of shock".

He said it was unclear when gas supplies via the pipeline could resume, and authorities were trying to work that out.

The Chuvashia regional Emergencies Ministry said an explosion had ripped through the pipeline during planned maintenance work near the village of Kalinino, about 150 km west of the Volga city of Kazan. It said the resulting gas flare had been extinguished.

The pipeline, built in the 1980s, enters Ukraine via the Sudzha metering point, currently the main route for Russian gas to reach Europe.

Europe's gas prices have surged this year after Russia cut exports through its main gas pipeline route into Germany, leaving only pipelines via Ukraine to ship Russian gas to European consumers.

Gazprom said earlier on Tuesday it expected to pump 43 million cubic metres of gas to Europe via Ukraine through Sudzha in the next 24 hours, a volume in line with recent days.

Forward prices on the Dutch TTF hub rose following the news. The benchmark TTF front-month contract was up 1.10 euros to 108.10 euro per megawatt hour by 1347 GMT. It had traded around 105 euros/MWh earlier in the day.

US to become net exporter of crude oil in 2023

The United States has become a global crude oil exporting power over the last few years, but exports have not exceeded its imports since World War II. That could change next year.

Sales of US crude to other nations are now a record 3.4 million barrels per day (bpd), with exports of about 3 million bpd of refined products like gasoline and diesel fuel. The United States is also the leading liquefied natural gas (LNG) exporter, where growth is expected to soar in coming years.

The United States consumes 20 million barrels of crude a day, the most in the world, and its output has never exceeded 13 million bpd. Until recently, the idea that it would be anything but a big crude importer was folly.

Last month, the US government data showed net US crude oil imports fell to 1.1 million barrels per day (bpd), the lowest since record keeping began in 2001. That is down sharply from five years ago, when the United States imported more than 7 million bpd.

Factors changing that equation this year include sanctions hurting Russia's exports of oil and natural gas following its invasion of Ukraine, and Washington's massive release of oil from emergency reserves to combat spiking gasoline prices.

"Russia's invasion of Ukraine has spurred new demand for US energy and should push oil exports above imports late next year assuming shale output accelerates," said Rohit Rathod, market analyst at energy researcher Vortexa.

To become a net exporter of crude, the United States needs either to boost production or curtail consumption. US petroleum demand is expected to rise 0.7% to 20.51 million bpd next year, meaning production has to be rise.

The United States already produces more oil than any other country in the world including Saudi Arabia and Russia. US shale fields are aging and production growth this year has been sluggish. Overall output should reach a record 12.34 million bpd next year - but only if prices are lucrative enough to encourage oil drillers to pump more.

European refiners have snapped up US grades to offset the loss of Russian oil, and with U.S. crude's deeper discounts to global benchmarks, Asian refiners have stepped up purchases to 1.75 million barrels per day, data analytics firm Kpler said.

Export terminal operators are rushing to boost their capacity to better service the giant tankers that can carry more than 2 million barrels of oil.

"Russia has proven to be an unreliable supplier," said Sean Strawbridge, Chief Executive of the largest US oil export facility, Port of Corpus Christi. "That really creates a wonderful opportunity for American producers and American energy."

Corpus Christi could see a 100,000 bpd increase in exports next year, Strawbridge said, on top of the record shipments of 2.2 million bpd in October.

Analysts said net exports could taper off if numerous countries worldwide fall into a recession, hampering demand, and if further relaxation of sanctions on Venezuelan crude oil boosts that country's shipments.

 

United States and changing dynamics of MENA

The Saudi hosting of Chinese President Xi Jinping, on December 08, underscored the dramatic clarification in 2022 of Saudi Arabia’s multipolar foreign policy, very much mirroring the United Arab Emirates’ decisions over the course of the year.

Global events, particularly the split in Gulf countries’ reactions over Russia’s aggression in Ukraine as well as the October oil production cut determined by the Saudi-dominated OPEC Plus consortium, exacerbated differences with the United States, including on issues ranging from Iran to human rights and civil liberties concerns. Popular perceptions in the United States and in the region as well have characterized these actions as reflecting hostility, especially toward the Biden administration.

In fact, the Gulf’s differences with the US have been on the rise for many years. Frustrations over US policies — ranging from the 2003 invasion of Iraq to the response to the 2011 Arab Spring popular uprisings and including the 2015 agreement with Iran on its nuclear program — have encouraged closer relations with other great powers, namely China and Russia.

Notably, China has emerged as the region’s number one trade and economic partner, while Russia, aided by President Vladimir Putin’s aggressive wooing of Gulf counterparts, has become a key partner in the global energy sector.

At the same time, a new generation of leaders in the Gulf, especially Saudi Arabia’s crown prince, Mohammed bin Salman, and the UAE’s president, Mohammed bin Zayed al-Nahyan, came to power more determined to pursue an independent foreign policy course that they considered more reflective of their nation’s leadership in regional and global affairs.

Included in that determination is a willingness to break with Washington on the response to global issues spanning the gamut, from the Ukraine war to Libya to the Horn of Africa.

As President Joe Biden’s visit to the region in July exemplified, this shift by the leading Gulf states to a multipolar policy does not mean necessarily that US relations with the region have become obsolete.

Given the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) members’ reliance in the defense and security realm not only on the US defense umbrella but also on US equipment, training, and doctrine for their own militaries, it’s unlikely that the GCC states would willingly move away from a continuation of that relationship. But it does mean that US policymakers can no longer assume that Gulf governments will follow a US lead on setting policy for either regional or global issues.

Going forward, to ensure Gulf cooperation, the US side will need to make the case that its policy preferences are consistent with Gulf leaders’ perspectives on their own national interests. Initiatives like the Joint Working Group on Iran should be increasingly a centerpiece of US engagement with the region.

 

 

 

 

 

Suez Canal Authority inks MoU with Maritime Anti-Corruption Network

According to Seartrade Maritime News, Suez Canal Authority (SCA) and the Maritime Anti-Corruption Network (MACN) have signed a Memorandum of Understanding to provide a framework for cooperation.

The Suez Canal is a blackspot for petty corruption involving vessels transiting the waterway and MACN has been building its engagement with SCA. The MoU aims to establish an official communication channel between the Authority and MACN.

Admiral Osama Rabie, Chairman of the Suez Canal Authority, stressed that the Authority spares no effort to work on the stability and sustainability of global supply chains to facilitate traffic in the Suez Canal amid a package of effective measures that guarantee transparency and impartiality, with the Authority’s readiness to provide all capabilities and overcome all obstacles to activate cooperation with all partners and organizations working in the field of maritime transport.

Cecilia Müller Torbrand, CEO of the Maritime Anti-Corruption Network, thanked the Chairman of the Suez Canal Authority Admiral Osama Rabie, and the Authority’s work team, stressing that the Suez Canal occupies a special place in the maritime community, highlighting the need for cooperation to promote effective and safe trade.

The memorandum was signed by the representative of the Suez Canal Authority, Engineer Gamal Abu Al-Khair, Director of the Transit Department.

The Suez Canal links east and west cutting out a lengthy transit via the Cape of Good Hope and over 22,030 ships transited through the canal during the fiscal year 2021-2022.

However, complaints over corruption by users of the waterway are longstanding. In MACN’s report on its first 10 years of reporting between 2011 and 2020 the Suez Canal topped global risk hotspots. A total of 1,795 incidents were reported in the canal during the 10-year period. Most of the incidents were petty corruption with 1,626 involving demands for cigarettes.

Pakistan Stock Exchange witnesses lackluster movement

The week ended on December 16, 2022 witnessed a range-bound movement of the benchmark index. The highlight of the week was Thursday when the market took a hit and the index posted 1.0%WoW decline to close at 41,301 points.

Economic uncertainty caused by enhanced delays in the 9th Review of the IMF program, along with rising interest rate led to a lackluster sentiment in the market. Further exasperating the sentiment is the critical level of the country’s foreign exchange reserves, having dropped to USD12.6 billion. Average daily trading volume decreased further by 9.9%WoW, down to 180 million shares.

Major news flows during the week were: 1) five financing pacts worth US$775 million inked with ADB, 2) IMF wants to observe 3 more quarters, examine flood rehab plan, 3) Saudi Arabia may increase the amount of oil supply to Pakistan on deferred payments to US$2.4 billion a year, 4) Reko Riq project got green signal with definitive agreement signed, 5) Jul-Nov workers’ remittances decline 9.8%YoY, 6) Fed raised rates by half percentage point, sees economy nearing stall, and lastly 7) Jul-Oct LSM sector output down 2.89%YoY.

The top performing sectors were: Miscellaneous, Tobacco, REIT, Textile Composite, and Vanaspati & Allied, while the least favorite sectors were: Leasing companies, Automobile Parts, Close-end Mutual Funds, Refineries, and Jute.

Stock-wise, top performers were: PSEL, PAKT, SYS, ENGRO, and DCR, while laggards included: PGCL, LOTCHEM, TGL, THALL, and MTL.

Flow-wise, Foreigners topped the net sellers, offloading US$9.6 million followed by Mutual funds (US$7.1 million), Individuals (US$2.5 million), Insurance Companies (US$1.4 million) and NBFC (US$0.1 million). While Banks, Companies, Other organizations and Brokers were on the buying side, with a net buy of US$12.8 million, US$6.2 million, US$1.5 million, and US$0.2 million respectively.

With the rising policy rate amid political uncertainty, the market remains in a state of indecisiveness. Incoming news regarding delays in IMF was bound to invoke some gloom; the longer is the delay the more the uncertainty is going to influence the market, keeping volumes away.

The local currency has started paring some of the gains it had made recently, depreciating to PKR225/USD as the foreign exchange slips to critical levels despite restrictions on the opening of L/Cs.

With the winters approaching, inflation is expected to remain persistent. The market participants expect another cumulative rate hike of 200 bps in FY23.