US claims downing Iranian drone in Iraq

The US forces on Wednesday claimed downing of an Iranian drone that officials said appeared poised to attack American troops in Iraq.

It was claimed that the downing came as the Iranian military started a drone bombing campaign targeting the bases of an Iranian-Kurdish opposition group in northern Iraq, attacks that have killed at least nine people and wounded 32 others, according to the Kurdish Regional Government’s Health Ministry. 

The bombings follow Iraqi and Iranian Kurds protesting in Iraq’s northern city of Erbil over the death of Mahsa Amini, the 22-year-old Kurdish woman who died in the custody of Iran’s morality police. 

“US Central Command condemns the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ unprovoked attack in Iraq’s Erbil Governorate this morning. Such indiscriminate attacks threaten innocent civilians and risk the hard-fought stability of the region,” command spokesman Joe Buccino said in a statement. 

In the midst of the bombing campaign, US forces brought down an Iranian Mojer-6 unmanned aerial vehicle “headed in the direction of Erbil as it appeared as a threat to CENTCOM forces in the area,” according to Buccino. 

He noted that no US forces were wounded or killed, no US equipment was damaged as a result of the strikes and that Central Command forces are assessing the situation. 

US and coalition troops are based in Iraq to advise and assist its military to counter ISIS militants and keep the terrorist group from resurging in the region. 

The US government has condemned the strikes, with national security adviser Jake Sullivan stating Wednesday that Washington stands with Iraq’s leaders in the Kurdistan region and Baghdad in condemning these attacks as an assault on the sovereignty of Iraq and its people.

“Iranian leaders continue to demonstrate flagrant disregard not only for the lives of their own people, but also for their neighbors and the core principles of sovereignty and territorial integrity enshrined in the UN Charter,” Sullivan said. “Iran cannot deflect blame from its internal problems and the legitimate grievances of its population with attacks across its borders.”

Iraq’s Foreign Ministry and the Kurdistan Regional Government have also condemned the attacks.

 

 

Saudi Arabia: Top 5 ship owners

Saudi Arabia is often classified as one of the largest oil producing country and it needs ships to deliver crude oil and/or POL products around the world. Many of our readers ask who Saudi Arabia’s biggest ship owners are.

When it comes to the answer by total fleet value it is little surprise to see Bahri coming out top, but looking at the largest number of vessels the ranking is somewhat different.

Ahead of the Saudi Maritime Congress which kicks off Kingdom’s top five owners are both by total value of their fleet and size in terms of numbers of vessels.

By value it is little surprise to see Bahri topping the list with its tanker fleet estimated to be worth US$2.28 billion.

Second in terms of value is MODU owner ADES International with a fleet worth US$947.62 million, with Bihar International with its fleet of LPG carriers, tankers and OSVs valued at $567.32 million.

In fourth and fifth spots are Arabian Drilling Co and Rawabi Holdings with fleets valued at US$503.08 million and US$445.13 million, respectively.

Ahead of the Saudi Maritime Congress which kicks off in Dammam we asked VesselsValue who the Kingdom’s top five owners are both by total value of their fleet and size in terms of numbers of vessels.

By value it is little surprise to see Bahri topping the list with its tanker fleet estimated to be worth US$2.28 billion. Second in terms of value is MODU owner ADES International with a fleet worth US$947.62 millio, with Bihar International with its fleet of LPG carriers, tankers and OSVs valued at US$567.32 million?

In fourth and fifth spots are Arabian Drilling Co and Rawabi Holdings with fleets valued at US$503.08 million and US$445.13 million, respectively.

However, if we look at the top 5 Saudi owners in terms of numbers of vessels in their fleet a rather different picture emerges.

Rawabi Holdings has the largest number of owned vessels with a fleet of 62 OSVs and offshore construction vessels (OCS). In second place is Zamil Offshore with an owned fleet of 50 OSVs and OCS. In third position is Bahri with an owned fleet of 44 tankers.

In fourth and fifth places are Hadi Hamad Al Hamman ADES International with an owned fleet of 38 and 30 vessels respectively.

Courtesy: Saudi Gazette

US mobilizing allies to reject Russian annexation effort

The United States and its allies are mobilizing the international community to reject Russian attempts to annex territory in Ukraine, in a move that Kyiv hopes will spur greater military support to deliver Moscow a decisive battlefield defeat.  

Hawkish supporters of Ukraine say now is the time for the US, Europe and NATO to increase the delivery of heavy artillery, tanks and war planes to Kyiv despite nuclear weapons threats by Russian President Vladimir Putin.  

Putin is under pressure in Russia because of the battlefield misfires and the chaotic rollout of his mobilization order for 300,000 troops. The Ukrainian military’s stunning counteroffensive in the northeast led Putin to move to mobilize more troops, which has received a negative reaction in Russia.  

William Taylor, a former US ambassador to Ukraine and vice president of the Russia and Europe program at the US Institute of Peace, said the news is helping the US effort.  

“My bet is that the [global] reaction would be to double down on support for the Ukrainians on the battlefield,” he said. “The Russians have a big manpower problem and now’s the time for the Ukrainians, reinforced by these weapons … to allow them to break through the Russian lines and push the Russians out.” 

Ukraine’s ambassador to the United Nations, Sergiy Kyslytsya, told CBS News on Monday that the international community needs to speed up the supply of weapons.  

He specifically called for the delivery of weapons to protect Ukraine’s airspace, adding that Russia is “impotent when it comes to the offensive on the ground” but that the missile threat needs to be eliminated.   

“I have never had any doubt that Ukraine will militarily defeat Russia on Ukrainian territory,” he said.   

The US and Britain have warned that what they call “sham” votes in four Ukrainian territories are an effort to annex Ukrainian territory while justifying the war to the Russian public.  

The British Ministry of Defense tweeted on Tuesday that Putin is likely to use an address to the Russian Parliament on Friday “to formally announce the accession of the occupied regions of Ukraine to the Russian Federation.”   

“Russia’s leaders almost certainly hope that any accession announcement will be seen as a vindication of the ‘special military operation’ and will consolidate patriotic support for the conflict,” the ministry tweeted.  

There have been multiple reports of opposition to Putin’s military mobilization order, with angry protests popping up in Russia’s far-flung territories, a shooting at an enlistment center in a Siberian city and reports of long queues of military-age men looking to flee the country.   

The U.K. on Monday announced sanctions against 92 Russian officials and entities it says are involved in carrying out the referendums.  

Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Tuesday that the US is readying sanctions if Russia moves forward on annexation.

“We are prepared and we will impose additional severe and swift costs on Russia for proceeding with the annexations,” he said during a press conference on Tuesday.  

“Ukraine has the absolute right to defend itself throughout its territory, including to take back the territory that has been illegally seized, one way or another, by Russia,” he added. “The weapons that we and many other countries are providing have been used very effectively to do just that.” 

Israel, which has maintained strategic ties with Moscow despite its invasion of Ukraine, released a statement Tuesday rejecting any results from the referendums.  

Taylor said the international community needs to follow up statements of anger with stronger military support.  

“All these expressions of outrage, of rejection, sanctions — that’s important to do, and it does send a message, but what’s really going to send a message, what really needs to happen, is the Ukrainians need to be able to push [the Russians] out of those places where they’re doing these referendum, pushing them out of these four provinces,” he said.  

The US has so far provided Ukraine with US$15 billion in security assistance, and lawmakers on Tuesday earmarked an additional $12.3 billion for Ukraine, included in draft text funding the government through December.   

But Ukrainian officials are frustrated that European powers with significant military reserves — Germany, France and Italy, specifically — have not matched commitments by the US, Britain and even the Baltic states, which are proportional to their size and military budgets.  

An analysis by the Kiel Institute for World Economy put the US as the number one donor for arms and equipment to Ukraine — citing about US$24 billion in commitments between January and August 03 — compared to pledges from Germany that equal about US$1.2 billion.  

France has committed less than $800 million in military assistance, and Italy around US$200 million, according to the tracker though it has counted US$2.4 billion in military commitments from European Union institutions.

Frustrations appear to be roiling in Berlin, where opposition lawmakers are demanding German Chancellor Olaf Scholz immediately send German tanks and armored vehicles to Ukraine. 

Politico Europe reported heated and inflammatory debate within Germany’s Bundestag last week over the need to increase, and quickly, military supplies to Ukraine.   

“If, in the light of mass graves in Bucha and Izyum, we are serious in saying: ‘Never again! Germany must ensure that something never happens again’ — then we have to go a decisive step further here,” parliamentarian Johann Wadephul, Deputy Chairman of the CDU/CSU parliamentary group, reportedly said. 

Russia likely to propose major output cut

Things are still looking bearish for crude, with WTI still trading below the US$80/barrel mark, but a number of bullish catalysts could offer support.

Hurricane Ian, was touted to become the next menace of oil production and refining in the US Gulf of Mexico. As of Tuesday morning, two oil majors have decided to shut oil platforms in anticipation, and the hurricane is now expected to make landfall in Florida.

Hence, oil market bulls see OPEC Plus as their ultimate line of defense against a meager macroeconomic background and a strengthening dollar, with all eyes on Russia, which is likely to propose a major production cut at the next meeting on October 05, 2022.

Russia is likely to propose at the next meeting that the group cut one million barrels per day from the group's collective output, Reuter’s sources familiar with Russian thinking shared on Tuesday.

The news comes just a day after comments made at Monday's APPEC's oil conference that suggested global oil stocks are set to rise next year amid weak demand and a strong dollar—and that OPEC would have to cut output if they wanted to keep prices from falling further.

The cartel would have to make oil cuts between 500,000 and one million bpd to keep Brent above US$90/barrel, Gary Ross, chief executive of Black Gold Investors, said at the meeting on Monday.

Now Russia itself could recommend a million bpd cut—and as one of the two largest members of the OPEC plus group, the county's recommendations hold weight.

The next meeting will be held on October 05, which will determine the output targets for November. It is also in November when the current batch of US SPR releases, which have helped to prop up low oil inventories, will cease.

OPEC Plus production cut for October by 100,000 bpd at the previous meeting, demonstrating its willingness—to respond to the changing oil markets in an expeditious manner.

Brent crude was trading up US$1.47 on Tuesday (+1.75%) to US$85.53/barrel, with mysterious and major leaks detected on Nordstream 1 and 2 pipelines that put the likelihood of gas flows resuming to Europe yet this year extremely low.

Some industry analysts have suggested that OPEC Plus could move to defend US$90/barrel.

 

Iran says US attempting to use unrest to weaken country

Iran faced more international criticism on Monday over the death of a woman in police custody that triggered nationwide protests after Tehran accused the United States of using the unrest to try to destabilize the country.

Iran has cracked down on the biggest demonstrations since 2019, sparked by the death of 22-year-old Kurdish woman Mahsa Amini on September 16 this year after she was detained by morality police enforcing the Islamic Republic's strict restrictions on women's dress. The case has drawn widespread condemnation.

The measures have not stopped Iranians from calling for the fall of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and the rest of the clerical establishment.

Canada will impose sanctions on those responsible for the death of Amini, including Iran's morality police unit and its leadership, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said on Monday.

"We've seen Iran disregarding human rights time and time again, now we see it with the death of Mahsa Amini and the crackdown on protests," Trudeau told reporters in Ottawa.

Activist Twitter account 1500tasvir posted videos it said showed street protests late on Monday in different parts of Tehran, and footage where residents could be heard shouting "Death to Khamenei" from their homes. Reuters could not verify the videos.

Human rights group Hengaw posted a video which it said showed protesters cheering in Sanandaj, capital of Kurdistan province, as women took off their headscarves to protest forced hijab. In a later video, heavy shooting could be heard as streets appeared to be filled with tear gas.

Another video posted on social media purported to show security forces opening fire late on Monday during protests in Sardasht, a town with a large Kurdish population. Reuters could not verify the videos.

Iran said the United States was supporting rioters and seeking to destabilize the Islamic Republic.

"Washington is always trying to weaken Iran's stability and security although it has been unsuccessful," Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesperson Nasser Kanaani said in a statement.

On his Instagram page, Kanaani accused the leaders of the United States and some European countries of abusing a tragic incident in support of "rioters" and ignoring "the presence of millions of people in the streets and squares of the country in support of the system".

Also on Monday, Germany summoned the Iranian ambassador in Berlin to urge Tehran to stop its crackdown and allow peaceful protests. Asked about the possibility of further sanctions on Tehran in response to the violence, a German foreign ministry spokesperson had earlier said, "We will consider all options" with other European Union states. 

Last week, the United States imposed sanctions on Iran's morality police over allegations of abuse of Iranian women, saying it held the unit responsible for the death of Amini.

On Sunday, Iran summoned the British and Norwegian ambassadors over what it called interference and hostile media coverage of the unrest.

The anti-government protests are the largest to sweep Iran since demonstrations over fuel prices in 2019, when Reuters reported 1,500 people were killed in a crackdown on protesters - the bloodiest bout of internal unrest in the Islamic Republic's history.

Although the demonstrations over Amini's death are a major challenge to the government, analysts see no immediate threat to Iran's leaders because the elite security forces have stamped out protests in the past.

Iran has blamed armed Iranian Kurdish dissidents of involvement in the unrest, particularly in the northwest where most of Iran's up to 10 million Kurds live.

Iran's Revolutionary Guards launched an artillery and drone attack on Iranian militant opposition bases in the Kurdish region of northern Iraq, the second such attack in two days, state media said.

 

 

United States brokering Israel-Lebanon deal

The Biden administration is on the verge of a significant breakthrough in Middle East relations as it quietly pursues an agreement between Israel and Lebanon on territorial maritime borders.

The negotiations appear to be closing in on the finish line amid intensive negotiations between US, Israeli and Lebanese officials that took place last week on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly in New York. 

The administration has taken pains to downplay the significance of the potential agreement — concerned that anything that appears to look like normalization between Israel and Lebanon would set off a catastrophic fight with Hezbollah, which has an estimated 150,000 missiles positioned on Israel’s northern border.

But if successful, an agreement between Lebanon and Israel — with Beirut implicitly recognizing Israel’s legitimacy while the two sides are at war — would mark a tremendous victory for the Biden administration’s use of diplomacy to advance Middle East stability. 

“It would be a very significant win for the Biden administration, and frankly it would be a significant win for regional stability and de-escalation of tensions,” said Mona Yacoubian, a senior adviser in the Middle East and North Africa Center at the US Institute of Peace. 

The negotiations are being led by ​​Amos Hochstein, Special Presidential Coordinator for International Energy. He launched mediations between Israel and Lebanon in mid-October, following up on talks that were initiated during the former Trump administration in 2020. 

The talks have gained little attention, in part because of greater world crises such as the Russian invasion of Ukraine. But this also reflects an effort on the part of the administration to maintain a low profile. 

“I think this is being managed quite well on the part of the administration and Amos Hochstein in particular,” Yacoubian said.

“He’s really been very diligent in his shuttle diplomacy. I think he’s demonstrating, really, and he’s embodying what the hard work of diplomacy looks like and, if there is a deal, what it can yield.” 

The agreement is expected to draw a border between Israel and Lebanon in the eastern Mediterranean Sea and demarcate claims that both Beirut and Jerusalem identify as their exclusive economic zone. It would sort out how the two nations could benefit from exploration of the Karish natural gas field.

Lebanese officials are signaling major progress in reaching a deal. Lebanese Prime Minister-designate Najib Mikati said during his speech at the General Assembly that “we have achieved tangible progress which we hope will reach its aspired conclusions soon.”

Part of the progress is a consensus between Israel and Lebanon on the benefits of resolving the maritime boundary. Israel wants to avoid conflict with Lebanon and generally advance its relations in the region, and Lebanon is in dire need of any economic benefit that would come from being able to explore gas extraction in this part of the Mediterranean Sea. 

While the agreement on the maritime boundary is unlikely to yield immediate economic benefits for Lebanon, which is viewed as being in a crisis economic state, it is viewed as a positive development. 

Energean, the Greek-British energy company that holds a license to develop the Karish gas field, said in a September press release, “It remains on track to deliver first gas from the Karish development project within weeks.”

The development of the fields could help European countries wean themselves off Russian natural gas.

“As Europeans seek substitutes for Russian energy sources, the eastern Mediterranean is becoming increasingly important in that regard,” Yacoubian said. 

Hezbollah that controls southern Lebanon and holds immense power in the country, has over the last few weeks increased the number of its threatening statements against Israel over the border negotiations and gas extraction. 

Hezbollah leader Hasan Nasrallah said last week, “We are following up on the negotiations and all our eyes are on Karish and our missiles are locked on Karish.” He warned Israel against extracting gas in the absence of an agreement with Lebanon. 

“The red line to us is that there should not be extraction from Karish,” he said, in televised remarks reported by the Naharnet news site. 

A spokesperson for Israeli Prime Minister Yair Lapid responded in a statement that gas extraction is not connected to the US-mediated negotiations. 

“Israel believes that it is both possible and necessary to reach an agreement on a maritime line between Lebanon and Israel. … The production of gas from the Karish rig is not connected to these negotiations, and the production of gas from the rig will commence without delay, as soon as it is possible,” the statement read.

In a briefing with reporters on Wednesday in New York, Lapid said, “Israel is strong and knows how to defend itself” if an agreement is not reached with Lebanon addressing Israel’s “security, diplomatic and economic needs,” Axios reported. 

Yacoubian, of the Institute of Peace, said that Nasrallah’s threats appear to be “theater.” 

“It’s a lot of saber rattling, but that might be because it’s a prelude to a negotiated agreement,” she said. 

“In other words, saber rattling as a way of Hezbollah establishing itself as an actor working towards Lebanon’s benefit — so that when this deal comes, they shape their role in that way, that it was partly their pressure, their strong line on defending Lebanon’s interests that helped get Lebanon a deal.”

Hawkish regional watchers believe Nasrallah’s threats are laying the groundwork for an outbreak of conflict. Israel views Hezbollah as one of its greatest security threats and an arm of Iran’s greater ambitions to attack the Jewish state.

“The Iranians, in their stomach, are trying to take revenge against Israel,” said Eitan Dangot, President of the Association of Oil and Gas Exploration Industries in Israel and former Chief of the Israel Home Front Command. 

“Hezbollah is not working for the defense of Lebanon; Iran is giving it the green light to open its missile storage on Israel.”

Hezbollah’s determined threats against Israel are a point the Israel Defense Forces constantly reinforce to the world. The IDF has destroyed, but preserved, at least half a dozen Hezbollah tunnels dug under Israel’s northern border.

They regularly bring international visitors to tour the tunnels, marching them 80 meters, or more than 260 feet, underground to view the sophisticated engineering needed to burrow through solid bedrock and demonstrate what they say is Hezbollah’s determination to wage war on Israel.

US Ambassador to the United Nations Linda Thomas-Greenfield visited the tunnels in November, and the IDF tweeted a photo of a delegation of ambassadors and diplomats visiting the tunnels in March.  

‏”Seeing the tunnel with your own eyes changes your perception completely. Only then can you truly understand the lengths Hezbollah goes to in order to harm Israeli civilians,” Lt. Col. Richard Hecht, IDF International spokesperson, told The Hill. 

 

 

Who will be next President of United States?

The statement of US President Joe Biden that it remains to be seen if he’ll run for reelection has prompted more Democratic chatter about whether they’ll have a different candidate for the White House in 2024. 

If Biden doesn’t run again, a number of Democrats are expected to wade into the presidential waters. Vice President Kamala Harris isn’t seen as a definitive leading contender in such a situation, Democrats acknowledge privately.  

“There’s not one clear candidate and there’s not a rising star,” said one top Democratic donor.  

Here’s who is generating the most talk and the most confidence.  

Kamala Harris 

While Harris, 57, has seen her own approval ratings fall at times during an up-and-down tenure as vice president, she remains the top non-Biden possibility for 2024.  

Strategists say it would be difficult to convince Black women — who helped catapult Biden to the White House — to vote for anyone else as the party’s standard-bearer.   

And as one strategist pointed out, “No one is going to win the nomination without winning in the South.” 

While Harris had a rocky start during the first year of the administration, generating headlines for both gaffes and a string of staff departures, she has settled into the role.  

She has also made women’s rights one of her issues out on the trail, an issue that can only help her political prospects with the Democratic base as the Supreme Court decision overturning the Roe v. Wade ruling on abortion rights continues to reverberate. 

Pete Buttigieg 

The Transportation Secretary has been a popular figure in the Democratic Party since his 2020 presidential run, when he surprised the base with his come-out-of-nowhere ascent.  

Buttigieg’s current role has sent him around the country to boast about popular infrastructure projects —something that can only help him down the road.  

Just last month, Buttigieg, 40, appeared in the swing states of Florida, New Hampshire, Nevada and Ohio.  Buttigieg’s stature with voters could have taken a beating with the railway strike earlier this month but after Biden’s late-hour intervention, it never amounted, solidifying his standing with Democratic voters. 

Gov. Gretchen Whitmer 

The two Biden administration fixtures are the top two non-Biden Democrats on our list. The most likely alternatives after them are two governors. The first is Michigan’s governor, who came closer than many realize to being Biden’s pick for vice president.  

Now Whitmer, 51, is catching the eyes of Democrats as she runs for reelection.  

This week, she opened up a 16-point lead over her Republican opponent Tudor Dixon in a Detroit Free Press poll.  

Whitmer has made it a point to lean in on abortion rights, in particular. At a recent event she highlighted her role in the fight.  

“The only reason Michigan continues to be pro-choice state is because of my veto and my lawsuit,” she said, according to CNN. The remarks refer to a lawsuit Whitmer filed to prevent a Michigan abortion ban from happening.  

She often points out she filed the lawsuit even before Roe v. Wade was overturned by the Supreme Court in June, a move that will surely appeal to the base in the coming years.  

Gov. Gavin Newsom  

At a time when Democrats have been craving a leader who would get in the faces of Republicans, Newsom, the California governor, appeared to do battle.  

Newsom, 54, made headlines in July when he took the fight directly to Ron DeSantis (R), running an ad in the Sunshine State blasting the Florida governor and the conservative culture there.  

“Freedom, it’s under attack in your state. Republican leaders, they’re banning books, making it harder to vote, restricting speech in classrooms, even criminalizing women and doctors,” he said in the spot, which ran on Fox News programming throughout the state.  

Earlier this month, he continued his aggressive stance by paying for billboards in some conservative states including Mississippi, Texas, Indiana and Oklahoma. His message, Abortion is still legal in California. 

“He has still got a lot to prove but he has certainly made Democrats pay attention,” one strategist said.  

Sen. Elizabeth Warren

The one-time presidential hopeful has made it clear she has one race on her mind in 2024: her own reelection to the Senate.  

But Democrats say there would be a place for her if Biden decides not to run again.  

Warren, 73, has continued to be a top advocate on Capitol Hill for issues important to Democrats including climate change, abortion rights and gun safety.  

But when she’s asked about the next presidential election, she consistently punts.  

“We’ve got to stop the catnip about 2024,” she told Axios this summer. “If we start getting tangled up on 2024, and fail to pay attention to business in 2022, that is not only going to hurt us in 2022. It is going to bite us on the rear end in 2024.”  

Sen. Bernie Sanders

It’s tough for some Democrats to see the senator from Vermont launching another presidential campaign.

After all, he is 81 years old and — if elected — would be nearing 90 by the end of his term.  

But Sanders has become such a staple of the Democratic Party since his first White House bid in 2016 that it’s hard to rule out a run. And if he did compete, he’d definitely have support. 

Whenever there’s a debate that matters to the base — on student loans or climate change — he’s at the heart of it, one strategist pointed out.  

Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

Almost no one in the Democratic Party has had the meteoric rise of “AOC,” as she’s known.  

And while most strategists doubt that the congresswoman from New York will run for president just yet, her name is constantly bandied about when Democrats complain that their bench is weak.  

The number one question strategists ask when they talk about her is whether she’ll even be of age to run for the highest office in the land. The answer is just barely: she turns 35 a month before the 2024 election.  

Besides her age, another question that would undoubtedly come up is whether Ocasio-Cortez’s politics are too liberal to win a Democratic primary or general election.