According to Seatrade Maritime News, container spot rates
have fallen by 10% for the fourth week running as increasingly looks like the
sector could be in for a hard landing.
The
bell weather Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) has lost another 10.4%
over the last week to be recorded at 2072.04 some 240.61 points lower than week
earlier.
The
SCFI is now 59% lower than it was in January this year when it stood at all time
high of 5,051 points.
It was
a similar picture for the Drewry World Container Index (WCI) which reported a
10%WoW decline on Thursday to $4,471.99 per feu. It the 30th week in a row that
the WCI has fallen and the index is now 57% lower than the same period last
year.
According to Drewry spot rates on Shanghai – Los Angeles fell
11% or $473 to US$3,779 per feu last week, while rates on Shanghai – Rotterdam
dropped by 10% to US$ 6,027 per feu.
Rates are expected to continue falling and Drewry said it
expects the index to decrease in over the next few weeks.
As Seatrade Maritime News reported earlier lines have
responded by aggressively pulling capacity from major trades ahead of the
Golden Week in China, but still rates continue to fall. According to Xeneta
capacity on the trade between Asia and the US West Coast is 13% lower than it
was in the same period in 2021 – the equivalent of 21 ships of 8,000 teu – the
average vessel size on the trade.
“And
still, the spot rates are falling… which is bound to impact on the long-term
contracted agreements in the near-to-mid-term. Are we beginning to see a wakeup
call for carriers after such a prolonged period of growth?” said Peter Sand,
Xeneta’s Chief Analyst.
Container line profits could come under pressure in the
coming months as their customers look to renegotiate long term contracts fixed
at the market’s peak.
Supply
chain software company Shifl said there had been a recent acceleration in the
drop in spot rates and carriers are attempting to renegotiate long term
contracts secured when rates were higher.
High longterm contract rates are expected to support
container line earnings well into next year, stretching the financial benefits
to lines of the congestion-backed peak in rates last year.
Both Hapag-Lloyd and Yang Ming said shippers have asked to
renegotiate deals, the former saying it is standing firm and the latter open to
hearing customers’ requests.
“With the increasing pressure
from shippers, shipping lines may not have a choice but to accede to customer
demands as contract holders are known to simply shift their volumes to the spot
market,” said Shabsie Levy, CEO and Founder of Shifl.
The pressure on lines and shippers alike comes from a steep
drop in spot rates. Shifl’s forwarded-driven rate index Shifex recorded
its lowest rate for two years on the Shanghai-LA route; at US$3,500 per
feu, the rate is down 80% on-year.
On the China-New York route, rates have held up slightly better
but are still down 59% on-year at US$7,950 per feu compare to a high of US$19,600
in September 2021.
“While
in July, there was a relatively steady decline in spot rates, the pace has
definitely picked up as a milieu of factors continue to soften the market for
containerized goods between China and the rest of the world.
Tightening monetary policy, a shift in consumer spending,
bloated inventories in the US, and growing geopolitical tensions between the US
and China continue to play a role in the movement of rates,” said Levy.
“With
the latest dramatic slump in rates, the market is closer than ever to the
pre-pandemic rate levels, especially to the largest entry ports in the USA -
Los Angeles and Long Beach,” said Levy.
Shifl also noted a drop in transit times on Asia-US routes
as congestion—one of the factors that supported high freight rates over the
past two years—begins to clear.
Transit times on the main China - LA/ Long Beach route fell
by 25% in August to 24 days, levels last seen in July 2021 and moving closer to
pre-pandemic levels of 16 days.
That reduction is partly fuelled by a movement of cargoes
from the West to East coast, however, and China-New York transit times edged up
from 46 to 50 days in August.
“The ripple
effect of the shift in cargoes from West Coast to East Coast is taking its
biggest toll now in New York with an overflow of empties and shortage of
chassis. We expect this to improve soon as lower volume forecasts will ease the
pressure off the system,” said Levy.