Pakistan Stock Exchange benchmark index witnesses 2.5%WoW decline

Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) remained under pressure during the week ended on September 23, 2022, driven by renewed weakness in the PKR against the USD and concerns regarding the country’s fiscal health.

Participation in the market remained lackluster, with average daily traded volumes averaging 166.1 million shares during the week under review as compared to 183.2 million shares a week ago.

The benchmark index, KSE-100 Index lost 1,059.28 points during the week, depicting a 2.5%WoW decline. The PKR continued to lose value against the US$, depreciating 1.2% during the week.

Furthermore, the SBP conducted the T-Bill auction this week, where the central bank raised PKR1.3 trillion against a target of PKR1.5 trillion. The cut-off yields for the 3-month and 12-month tenors remained largely flat, whereas the yield for 6-month increased by 15bps to 16%.

Other major news inflows during the week were: Saudi Fund for Development confirmed a one-year extension of US$3 billion deposit, 2) Initial estimates pointed towards flood losses to be US$30 billion, 3) IMF announced that it would support Pakistan’s flood relief, reconstruction efforts under the current program, 4) Russia agreed to provide petrol to Pakistan on deferred payments, 5) In July 2022, LSMI output was down by 16.5%MoM, 6) SPI was down by 8.11%WoW, and 7) CAD dropped 42%MoM to US$703 million in August 2022.

The top performing sectors were: Tobacco, and Synthetic & Rayon, while the least favorite were: Close-End Mutual Fund and Oil & Gas Exploration Companies.

Top performing stocks were: PAKT, IBFL, UNITY, TRG and NESTLE, while laggards were: TGL, HGFA, CEPB, KEL and PPL.

Foreign investors emerged the major buyers with net buy of US$5.1 million, followed by Individuals (US$1.5 million). As against this, Insurance Companies were the biggest sellers with US$3.3 million, followed by Mutual Funds (US$2.4 million).

Going forward, the easing off in international commodity prices, particularly oil is expected to be a welcomed development as the pressures on the external account start to recede.

On the flip side, the strength in the US$ following the 75bps policy rate increase in the US is expected to put pressure on the exchange rate, which could murk sentiment.

Investors will be looking towards any policy action in the upcoming Monetary Policy, scheduled for October 10, 2022.

However, the economic slowdown—an intended outcome of the SBP’s contractionary policies—and effects of floods across the country could adversely affect sentiment going forward. Investors are to stay cautious, while building new positions in the market.

Container spot rates plunge 58% since January

According to Seatrade Maritime News, container spot rates have fallen by 10% for the fourth week running as increasingly looks like the sector could be in for a hard landing.

The bell weather Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) has lost another 10.4% over the last week to be recorded at 2072.04 some 240.61 points lower than week earlier.

The SCFI is now 59% lower than it was in January this year when it stood at all time high of 5,051 points.

It was a similar picture for the Drewry World Container Index (WCI) which reported a 10%WoW decline on Thursday to $4,471.99 per feu. It the 30th week in a row that the WCI has fallen and the index is now 57% lower than the same period last year.

According to Drewry spot rates on Shanghai – Los Angeles fell 11% or $473 to US$3,779 per feu last week, while rates on Shanghai – Rotterdam dropped by 10% to US$ 6,027 per feu.

Rates are expected to continue falling and Drewry said it expects the index to decrease in over the next few weeks.

As Seatrade Maritime News reported earlier lines have responded by aggressively pulling capacity from major trades ahead of the Golden Week in China, but still rates continue to fall. According to Xeneta capacity on the trade between Asia and the US West Coast is 13% lower than it was in the same period in 2021 – the equivalent of 21 ships of 8,000 teu – the average vessel size on the trade.

“And still, the spot rates are falling… which is bound to impact on the long-term contracted agreements in the near-to-mid-term. Are we beginning to see a wakeup call for carriers after such a prolonged period of growth?” said Peter Sand, Xeneta’s Chief Analyst.

Container line profits could come under pressure in the coming months as their customers look to renegotiate long term contracts fixed at the market’s peak.

Supply chain software company Shifl said there had been a recent acceleration in the drop in spot rates and carriers are attempting to renegotiate long term contracts secured when rates were higher.

High longterm contract rates are expected to support container line earnings well into next year, stretching the financial benefits to lines of the congestion-backed peak in rates last year.

Both Hapag-Lloyd and Yang Ming said shippers have asked to renegotiate deals, the former saying it is standing firm and the latter open to hearing customers’ requests.

 “With the increasing pressure from shippers, shipping lines may not have a choice but to accede to customer demands as contract holders are known to simply shift their volumes to the spot market,” said Shabsie Levy, CEO and Founder of Shifl.

The pressure on lines and shippers alike comes from a steep drop in spot rates. Shifl’s forwarded-driven rate index Shifex recorded its lowest rate for two years on the Shanghai-LA route; at US$3,500 per feu, the rate is down 80% on-year.

On the China-New York route, rates have held up slightly better but are still down 59% on-year at US$7,950 per feu compare to a high of US$19,600 in September 2021.

“While in July, there was a relatively steady decline in spot rates, the pace has definitely picked up as a milieu of factors continue to soften the market for containerized goods between China and the rest of the world.

Tightening monetary policy, a shift in consumer spending, bloated inventories in the US, and growing geopolitical tensions between the US and China continue to play a role in the movement of rates,” said Levy.

“With the latest dramatic slump in rates, the market is closer than ever to the pre-pandemic rate levels, especially to the largest entry ports in the USA - Los Angeles and Long Beach,” said Levy.

Shifl also noted a drop in transit times on Asia-US routes as congestion—one of the factors that supported high freight rates over the past two years—begins to clear.

Transit times on the main China - LA/ Long Beach route fell by 25% in August to 24 days, levels last seen in July 2021 and moving closer to pre-pandemic levels of 16 days.

That reduction is partly fuelled by a movement of cargoes from the West to East coast, however, and China-New York transit times edged up from 46 to 50 days in August.

“The ripple effect of the shift in cargoes from West Coast to East Coast is taking its biggest toll now in New York with an overflow of empties and shortage of chassis. We expect this to improve soon as lower volume forecasts will ease the pressure off the system,” said Levy.

 

 

 

Saudi Arabia-United States-France call for forming a capable Lebanese government

Saudi Arabia, United States and France called for the formation of a government capable of implementing the structural and economic reforms urgently needed to address Lebanon’s political and economic crises, specifically those reforms needed to reach an agreement with the International Monetary Fund.

Representatives from the United States, France, and Saudi Arabia met on Wednesday to discuss Lebanon on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly.

"Our three countries expressed their continuing support for Lebanon’s sovereignty, security, and stability. As Lebanon’s Parliament prepares to elect a new President, we stress the importance of timely elections in compliance with the constitution," the statement issued after the meeting read.

"It is critical to elect a President who can unite the Lebanese people and work with regional and international actors to overcome the current crisis.

"We are willing to work jointly with Lebanon to support the implementation of these fundamental reform measures, which are critical to the country’s future prosperity, stability, and security."

They acknowledged the critical role the Lebanese Armed Forces and the Internal Security Forces – as the legitimate defenders of Lebanon’s sovereignty and internal stability – continue to play in protecting the Lebanese people at a time of unprecedented crisis.

The three countries affirmed the need for the Lebanese government to implement the provisions of UN Security Council resolutions 1559, 1701, 1680, 2650 and other relevant international resolutions, including those issued by the Arab League, and commit to the Taif Agreement, which enables the preservation of national unity and civil peace in Lebanon.

Israeli Prime Minister backs two state solution

Israeli Prime Minister Yair Lapid called on Thursday for a two-state solution to decades of Israeli-Palestinian conflict and reasserted that Israel would do "whatever it takes" to stop Iran from developing a nuclear bomb.

His mention of a two-state solution, the first by an Israeli leader in years at the United Nations General Assembly, echoed US President Joe Biden's support in Israel in August for the long-dormant proposal.

"An agreement with the Palestinians, based on two states for two peoples, is the right thing for Israel's security, for Israel's economy and for the future of our children," Lapid said.

He added any agreement would be conditioned on a peaceful Palestinian state that would not threaten Israel.

Lapid spoke less than six weeks before a November 01, 2022 election that could return to power the right-wing former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, a longstanding opponent of the two-state solution.

Israel captured East Jerusalem, the West Bank and Gaza - areas that Palestinians seek for an independent state - in a 1967 Middle East war. US-sponsored Israeli-Palestinian peace talks collapsed in 2014.

In his speech, Lapid again denounced Iran and voiced Israel's determination to prevent its longtime foe from gaining a nuclear weapon.

"The only way to prevent Iran from getting a nuclear weapon is to put a credible military threat on the table," he said. "We have capabilities and we are not afraid to use them."

Widely believed to have the Middle East’s only nuclear weapons, Israel regards Iran as an existential threat. Tehran denies trying to develop a nuclear weapon.

Efforts to reach a two-state Israeli-Palestinian deal have long been stalled.

Palestinians and rights groups say Israel has entrenched its control of the occupied Palestinian territories through its military rule over millions of Palestinians and persistent settlement construction.

Wasel Abu Youssef, a senior member of the Palestine Liberation Organization, told Reuters that Lapid's words "mean nothing."

"Whoever wants a two-state solution must implement it on the ground," he said, by respecting previously reached agreements, stopping settlement expansion and recognizing East Jerusalem as the capital of a future Palestinian state.

US Ambassador to Israel Tom Nides called Lapid's speech "courageous" for supporting the two-state solution.

Lapid praised efforts by Middle Eastern countries to normalize relations and cooperate with Israel. He urged Muslim countries, from Indonesia to Saudi Arabia, to make peace with it.

 

 

 

Iran-US clash at UN General Assembly

The United States and Iran clashed on security and human rights, with Iranian President demanding US guarantees to revive the 2015 Iran nuclear deal and the US President vowing Tehran would never get an atomic bomb.

Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi struck a defiant tone at the United Nations General Assembly by decrying "double standards" on human rights after the death of an Iranian woman in police custody that has sparked protests around Iran.

Raisi also said Tehran wanted former US President Donald Trump to face trial for the 2020 killing of Iran's top Quds Force commander Qassem Soleimani in a US drone attack in Iraq, holding up a picture of the general.

"There is a great and serious will to resolve all issues to revive the (2015 nuclear) deal," Raisi told the UN General Assembly. "We only wish one thing: observance of commitments."

Speaking later, US President Joe Biden reiterated his willingness to revive the nuclear pact under which Iran had agreed to restrain its atomic program in return for relief from economic sanctions.

In 2018, Trump withdrew the United States from the nuclear deal and unilaterally reimposed sanctions that have hobbled Iran's economy.

A year later, Tehran reacted by gradually violating the deal's nuclear limits and reviving US, Israeli and Gulf Arab fears that Iran may be seeking to obtain an atomic weapon, an ambition Iran denies.

"We have before us the experience of America's withdrawal from the (deal)," Raisi said. "With that experience and this perspective, can we ignore the important issue of guarantees for a durable agreement?"

Raisi did not mention Iran's demand that investigations by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) into traces of uranium found at three undeclared Iranian sites be closed, a major stumbling block to reviving the deal.

The US and European officials have said the probes can only be closed if Iran provides satisfactory answers to the UN nuclear watchdog whose chief, Rafael Grossi, said these issues cannot be wished away.

"The Islamic Republic considers the double standards of some governments in the field of human rights as the most important factor in the institutionalization of human rights violations," Raisi said in a text of his speech released by his office.

"Human rights belongs to all, but unfortunately it is trampled upon by many governments," Raisi added, referring to the discovery of unmarked graves of indigenous people in Canada, the suffering of the Palestinians and images of migrant children held in cages in the United States.

"While the United States is prepared for a mutual return to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action if Iran steps up to its obligations, the United States is clear. We will not allow Iran to acquire a nuclear weapon," Biden said.

"We stand with the brave citizens and the brave women of Iran who right now are demonstrating to secure their basic rights," Biden added.

Zelenskiy sounds perfect moth peace of CIA

Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has demanded a special United Nations tribunal to impose ‘just punishment’ on Russia for its invasion of Ukraine. These include imposing financial penalties and stripping Moscow of its veto power in the Security Council.

Zelenskiy's recorded address to world leaders at the UN General Assembly on Wednesday came after Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered Moscow's first wartime mobilization since World War II and threatened to use nuclear weapons to defend Russia in what he has cast as a defining East-West clash.

Moscow plans to conscript some 300,000 troops in an apparent escalation of its Ukraine invasion that began in February and has left thousands dead, displaced millions and reduced towns to rubble.

"A crime has been committed against Ukraine, and we demand just punishment," Zelenskiy told the UN body.

"A special tribunal should be created to punish Russia for the crime of aggression against our state... Russia should pay for this war with its assets," the Ukrainian president said, urging the UN to "remove the right of veto" from Russia as a Security Council member.

Zelenskiy laid out what he said were five non-negotiable conditions for peace. These included: punishment for Russian aggression, restoration of Ukraine's security and territorial integrity, and security guarantees.

Many delegates at the UN gave Zelenskiy a standing ovation at the end of his speech.

Earlier on Wednesday, Putin had ordered the military draft in a televised address in which he also announced moves to annex four Ukrainian provinces and threatened to use nuclear weapons to defend Russia, declaring: "It's not a bluff".

The reservists' main task will be to reinforce the front line in Ukraine, which is currently over 1,000 km (621 miles) long, Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu said.

The reservists will need training and Western military analysts said it will be several months before they see action.

Flights out of Russia quickly sold out, and jailed opposition leader Alexei Navalny called for mass demonstrations against the mobilization.

Independent protest monitoring group OVD-Info said more than 1,300 people had been detained in protests by Wednesday evening.

Offering no evidence, Putin accused officials in NATO states of threatening to use nuclear weapons against Russia. They should know that "the weathervane can turn towards them", he said, adding that Russia "also has various means of destruction".

"When the territorial integrity of our country is threatened, we will certainly use all the means at our disposal to protect Russia and our people. It's not a bluff."

US President Joe Biden, in a speech to the UN General Assembly, responded: "Again, just today, President Putin has made overt nuclear threats against Europe, in a reckless disregard for the responsibilities of the non-proliferation regime."

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau condemed Putin's "irresponsible escalation of the war", saying "Putin's behavior only goes to show that his invasion is failing."

Foreign Ministers from the Group of Seven (G7) advanced economies confirmed in a meeting in New York on Wednesday their cooperation in extending support for Ukraine and responding to food and energy security, the Japanese Foreign Ministry said.

"It's clear Russia wants to destroy Ukraine," EU Foreign Policy Chief Josep Borrell said. "We will not be intimidated." 

Russia and Ukraine carried out an unexpected prisoner swap on Wednesday, the largest since the war began and involving almost 300 people, including 10 foreigners and the commanders who led a prolonged Ukrainian defence of Mariupol earlier this year. 

The foreigners released included two Britons and a Moroccan who had been sentenced to death in June after being captured fighting for Ukraine. Also freed in the deal brokered by Saudi Arabia, according to a Saudi ministry, were three other Britons, two Americans, a Croatian, and a Swedish national.

The released Ukrainians had been captured after a long battle for the port city of Mariupol earlier this year and included top military commanders, said Andriy Yermak, the head of President Volodymyr Zelenskiy's office.

The moves come at a time when Russia has been facing a string of battlefield failures, with its invasion force routed in northeastern Ukraine.

Ukrainian forces say they are now poised to push deeper into territory Moscow had captured over months of heavy fighting.

"No amount of threats and propaganda can hide the fact that Ukraine is winning this war, the international community is united and Russia is becoming a global pariah," said British Defence Secretary Ben Wallace.

Russia's mobilization may be the riskiest domestic political move of Putin's two decades in power, and followed months of Kremlin promises it would do no such thing.

The war has so far appeared to enjoy popular support in a country where independent media have all been shut down and public criticism of the "special military operation" is banned.

But for many ordinary Russians, especially in the urban middle classes, the prospect of being sent to fight would be the first hint of the war affecting them personally.

Several Western military experts said drafting hundreds of thousands of new troops would take months, do little to slow Russia's losses, and could even make matters worse by drawing resources away from the battlefield to train and equip recruits.

 

Saudi Shoura Speaker asks Iran not to intervene in the affairs of other countries

The Shoura Council Speaker Sheikh Dr. Abdullah Bin Muhammad Bin Ibrahim Al-Sheikh stressed that the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia — under the leadership of Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques King Salman and the Crown Prince — is on a path of prosperity and welfare.

He reiterated that the region needs to be without conflicts while solving all its issues, mainly the Palestinian cause. He renewed Saudi Arabia’s inviolable support to the Palestinian people and their full right to establishing their independent Palestinian state on the pre-1967 lines with East Jerusalem as its capital.

Dr. Al-Sheikh made the remarks while heading Saudi Arabia’s delegation participating in the 16th meeting of Heads of Shoura, Representatives, National Assembly, and Parliament Councils in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) member states hosted by Oman Wednesday.

He noted that the future of the region requires adopting a vision that prioritizes realizing security, stability and prosperity, while focusing on mutual respect among regional countries.

He added that the region needs to enhance joint cultural and social bonds, and faces security and political challenges in a bid to achieve a comprehensive economic development.

He said, “The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia calls on Iran, in its capacity as a neighboring country whose people share the same religious and cultural values, to cooperate with regional countries through adhering to principles of the international legitimacy and refraining from interference in domestic affairs of other countries.”

“The Kingdom calls on Iran to cooperated with International Atomic Energy Agency, and honor its relevant pledges,” he added, stressing Saudi Arabia’s rejection of Iran’s occupation of three Emirati islands of Abu Musa and the Greater and Lesser Tunbs.

He emphasized, at the same time, calls on Iran to respond to the UAE endeavors to solve the issue through direct negotiations or resorting to the International Court of Justice.

Dr. Al-Sheikh also noted that Saudi Arabia is always keen on the success of the truce reached under the auspices of UN in Yemen and its full rejection for Houthi militia to exploit the keenness of the international community and the coalition on peace and the militia’s rejection to honor its pledges.

He stressed that Saudi Arabia praises the efforts of the UN’s Special Envoy of the Secretary-General for Yemen Hans Grundberg in enhancing commitment to truce that is in line with Saudi Arabia’s initiative to end the crisis in Yemen and reach a comprehensive political solution.