India-US begin joint drills in Indian Ocean

According to Hindustan Times, Indian Air Force and Navy on Wednesday kicked off two-day drills with the US Navy in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR) amid China’s attempts to expand its presence in the strategic region. The exercise will also involve the US Navy’s Ronald Reagan Carrier Strike Group (CSG).

The IAF takes part in the exercise with its Jaguar fighters, Sukhoi-30 MKIs, Phalcon AWACS (airborne warning and control system) aircraft, Netra AEW&C (airborne early warning and control) aircraft, and Il-78 mid-air refuellers. The US Navy’s air assets will include F-18 jets and E-2C Hawkeye AEW&C aircraft, the officials said.

Indian warships INS Kochi and Teg along with P-8I submarine hunter planes and MiG-29K aircraft are also taking part in the exercise.

The exercise comes a week after Indian Defence Minister Rajnath Singh called for an open and inclusive order in the Indo-Pacific region, including the South China Sea, with respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity of countries. Singh reiterated New Delhi’s support to freedom of navigation, over-flight and unimpeded commerce for all in international waters in accordance with the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea.

IAF spokesperson Wing Commander Ashish Moghe said the IAF has extensive experience in maritime operations in the IOR. “This has been consolidated over the years by the conduct of exercises from the country’s island territories…This engagement with the US CSG offers one more opportunity to undertake joint operations in the maritime domain with a friendly foreign power.”

He said the exercise will focus on multiple areas including enhancing aspects of interoperability, nuances of international integrated maritime search and rescue operations, and exchange of best practices in the maritime airpower domain.

The navy said in a statement that the Indian warships along with aircraft from the Indian Navy and IAF will be engaged in joint multi-domain operations with the CSG comprising Nimitz-class aircraft carrier Ronald Reagan, Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyer USS Halsey and Ticonderoga-class guided-missile cruiser USS Shiloh. “High tempo operations during the exercise will include advanced air defence exercises, cross-deck helicopter operations, and anti-submarine exercises. The participating forces will endeavour to hone their war-fighting skills and enhance their interoperability as an integrated force to promote peace, security, and stability in the maritime domain.”

The Indian Navy is carrying out round-the-clock surveillance in the IOR, which, it believes, China will inevitably try to enter in its quest to become a global power, just as it has laid claim to large portions of the disputed South China Sea.

Prospects of US joining JCPOA getting bleaker

According to an AP report, Biden administration officials are insisting that the election of a hard-liner as Iran’s president won’t affect reviving the 2015 nuclear deal with Tehran. But, there are signs that prospects of concluding a deal are getting bleaker.

Optimism that a deal was imminent faded as the talks ended on Sunday without tangible indications of significant progress. On Monday, in his first public comments since the vote, incoming Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi rejected a key Biden goal of expanding on the nuclear deal if negotiators are able to salvage the old one.

Raisi is likely to raise the Iran’s demands for sanctions relief in return for Iranian compliance with the deal, as he himself is already subject to US human rights penalties.

“I don’t envy the Biden team,” said Karim Sadjapour, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace who has advised multiple US administrations on Iran. “I think the administration now has a heightened sense of urgency to revise the deal before Raisi and a new hard-line team is inaugurated.”

President Joe Biden and his team have made the US return to the deal one of their top foreign policy priorities. The deal was one of President Barack Obama’s signature achievements; one that aides now serving in the Biden administration had helped negotiate and that Donald Trump repudiated and tried to dismantle as president.

Despite Raisi’s impending presidency, Biden administration officials insist prospects for reaching an agreement are unaltered. They argue that Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who signed off the 2015 deal known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), will make the final decision, regardless of who is president.

“The president’s view and our view is that the decision leader is the supreme leader,” White House press secretary Jen Psaki said Monday. “That was the case before the election; it’s the case today; it will be the case probably moving forward.”

“Iran will have, we expect, the same supreme leader in August as it will have today, as it had before the elections, as it had in 2015 when the JCPOA was consummated for the first time,” State Department spokesman Ned Price said.

But hopes for substantial progress fizzled last week ahead of the Iranian election amid a flurry of speculation about the impact of the vote on the indirect talks between Iran and the US in Vienna. Diplomats and others familiar with the talks had thought the last round, the sixth, could produce at least a tangible result even if it fell short of a full deal.

Now, that round has ended and a seventh round has yet to be scheduled as Raisi, Iran’s conservative judiciary chief, brandished an absolute rejection of anything more than Iran’s bare minimum compliance with the 2015 agreement in exchange for a lifting all of US sanctions.

In his public comments Monday, Raisi brushed aside US calls for Iran to agree to follow-on discussions on expanding the initial nuclear deal to include its ballistic missile program and its support for regional groups that the US designates terrorist organizations.

“It’s nonnegotiable,” Raisi said’

Iran experts agree it will be a tough, if not impossible, for Biden to get Iran to go beyond the nuclear agreement.

“I’m very skeptical that once we’ve lifted the sanctions to get them to return they’ll feel any incentive to come back and negotiate more concessions,” Sadjapour said. “And, if we coerce them with sanctions to come back to the table, they’ll argue that we’ve abrogated our end of the nuclear deal again.”

Critics of the nuclear deal maintain that the administration has already given away too much in exchange for too little by signaling its desire to repudiate Trump’s repudiation of the nuclear deal. And, they say that even if Iran agrees to some sort of additional talks, the pledge will be meaningless.

“It was pretty obvious that the Iranians were never going to negotiate in good faith beyond the JCPOA,” said Rich Goldberg, a Trump administration National Security Council official who has espoused a hard line on Iran.

“But now, even if the administration gets some sort of face-saving language from the Iranians about future talks, Raisi has already said they’re not interested. The jig is up,” he said. “You can’t come back to a skeptical Congress, allies and deal opponents and say the promise means anything it means when Raisi has already said it doesn’t.”

But administration officials are adamant that as good as the nuclear deal is, it is insufficient and must be improved on.

“We do see a return to compliance as necessary but insufficient, but we also do see a return to compliance as enabling us to take on those other issues diplomatically,” Price said, adding that the point had been made clear to the Iranians “in no uncertain terms.”

An additional complication is that Raisi will become the first serving Iranian president sanctioned by the US government even before entering office, in part over his time as the head of Iran’s internationally criticized judiciary — a situation that could complicate state visits and speeches at international forums such as the United Nations.

Psaki and Price both said that the US will continue to hold Raisi accountable for human rights violations for which he was sanctioned by the Trump administration.

Trump withdrew from the nuclear deal in 2018 and set about a “maximum pressure” campaign on Iran that included re-instating all the sanctions eased under the agreement along with adding a host of new ones.

Israel’s warning to United States or declaration of war against Iran

IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Aviv Kohavi warned the United States officials against rejoining the Iranian nuclear deal. He is visiting Washington to discuss the threat posed by Tehran’s nuclear program.

“The Chief of the General Staff emphasized the shortcomings of the current nuclear agreement, which will allow Iran to make significant progress related to centrifuges as well as to substantially enhance the amount and quality of enriched matter over the next few years, also emphasizing the lack of supervision in terms of nuclear proliferation,” the IDF Spokesperson’s Unit said in a statement.

Israel’s top military officer explained the threat created by returning to the original nuclear agreement and emphasized that all measures should be taken to prevent Iran from achieving military nuclear capabilities.

Kohavi is in Washington on a four-day visit and is holding meetings with Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Mark Milley, Head of the US Central Command Gen. Kenneth McKenzie, and Head of the US Special Operations Command (SOCOM) Gen. Richard Clark.

In light of the close alliance between Israel and the United States, it is rare for a chief of staff to make public remarks about political issues or to criticize the foreign policies of allies.

But Kohavi has made it clear that he views the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action as dangerous, saying in January that he has directed the IDF to prepare fresh operational plans to strike Iran in order to stop its nuclear program if necessary.

“Iran can decide that it wants to advance to a bomb, either covertly or in a provocative way. In light of this basic analysis, I have ordered the IDF to prepare a number of operational plans, in addition to the existing ones. We are studying these plans and we will develop them over the next year,” Kohavi said in a speech at the Institute for National Security Studies think tank’s annual conference.

 “The government will of course be the one to decide if they should be used. But these plans must be on the table, in existence and trained for,” he added.

During his trip, which is his first as Israel’s top military officer, he is meeting with his American counterparts to discuss common security challenges in the region, including issues related to the threat posed by the Iranian nuclear project, Tehran’s attempt to entrench itself in the Middle East, Hezbollah’s attempts to strengthen itself and the consequences of the Lebanese terror group’s precision missile project.

The leaders also discussed the challenges and related responses in the Palestinian arena, focusing on the Gaza Strip. Kohavi also presented the military’s main takeaways from Operation Guardian of the Walls.

His visit to Washington that was scheduled to take place in April was postponed due to the fighting with Hamas and other groups in the Gaza Strip. 

Bennett defeats first motions of no-confidence

Prime Minister Naftali Bennett on Monday successfully defeated the opposition’s first motions of no-confidence by votes of 60-49 and 59-50. Former Likud minister Ophir Akunis introduced the motions, calling the new government illegitimate because its ruling party, Yamina, has only six loyal MKs.

The government’s liaison to the Knesset, Ze’ev Elkin (New Hope), responded that opposition leader Benjamin Netanyahu had offered a rotation as prime minister to Bennett and to New Hope leader Gideon Sa’ar, indicating that it was legitimate for Netanyahu.

By contrast, Netanyahu did not offer such a rotation to anyone else in Likud, despite his own party winning 30 seats, indicating that it was not legitimate for the former prime minister, he said.

“I understand your frustration with losing power, which was unnecessary because Likud could have formed a government if Netanyahu would have agreed to stand aside,” Elkin told former Likud ministers.

In response, Shas leader Arye Deri said at Sa’ar’s request, Netanyahu had agreed to key Likud figures becoming prime minister, including MKs Yariv Levin, Yuval Steinitz and Avi Dichter, and Netanyahu agreed to obtain the approval of the Likud central committee, but Bennett did not agree.

“The cat is out of the bag,” he said. “Naftali Bennett torpedoed it.”

Religious Services Minister Matan Kahana (Yamina) responded: “That is a lie.”

Elkin accused Netanyahu of spending the Likud’s funds to pay protesters to come to his home late at night and frighten his five-year-old daughter.

“In your eyes, whatever serves you is always legitimate, and what removes you from power is always illegitimate,” he told Netanyahu.

Netanyahu responded to his former close confidant sarcastically by saying, “Everyone knows how much the previous speaker cares about the state and how much he takes care of himself.”

The new “government is dangerous, and that is why we will topple it faster than people think,” he said.

Another test of the government is set to take place next week when votes will be held on extending an ordinance that prevents family reunification of Palestinians and Arab-Israelis.

Religious Zionist Party leader Bezalel Smotrich on Monday said his party would not be voting with the coalition to extend the ordinance.

“We won’t be the ones plugging holes for this coalition or those who save it from itself,” he said.

The coalition needs the support of right-wing opposition MKs to pass the ordinance because it is opposed by the Ra’am (United Arab List) Party, as well as Regional Cooperation Minister Esawi Frej and Mossi Raz of Meretz.

Bennett was set to join a meeting of Interior Minister Ayelet Shaked (Yamina) and Ra’am head Mansour Abbas late Monday in an effort to solve the problem.

At a Likud faction meeting on Monday, it was decided that Likud MKs would vote against the law preventing the unification of Palestinian families.

Iranian President-elect announces his priorities

Ebrahim Raisi who overwhelmingly won Iranian presidential election on 18^th June 2021 held a press conference on Monday to elaborate on his major domestic and foreign policy priorities.

In his preliminary remarks, the president-elect praised participation of people in the elections, calling it an epic. He said it sent an important message to the entire world.

He said people high turnout in the election took place despite the coronavirus pandemic, propaganda by the enemies, and economic hardship.

Following are excerpts from his remarks:

• The message of the election was to administer justice and fight corruption.  
• My administration will remain loyal to the promises that I have made during the presidential campaigns. 
• To improve the economic condition of the people.
• To administer a law-abiding and effective managerial system.
• I also thank services by the successive governments since the 1979 Islamic Revolution. However, in certain cases due to mismanagement Iran is facing problems and is lagging behind.
• The world, particularly the West, should realize that the situation in Iran has changed through the people’s vote.
• Our foreign policy will not begin with the JCPOA and will not end with the JCPOA.
• We will seek a balanced relationship with the outside world. 
• National interests will be considered in negotiations with foreigners.
• Negotiations should produce results. 
• The United States should have realized that maximum pressure on Iran has been fruitless.
• The JCPOA has been violated by the United States and the Europeans have also not abided by their commitments under the multilateral agreement.
• Iran wants Europeans to commit themselves to their obligations. 
• Liquidity should be managed. It should be directed toward the production sector. 
• We will make production enticing.
• And we also should administer an effective tax system and make certain business activities like those in gold market and housing unattractive.
• All sanctions must be lifted and their removal must be verified. America must abide by its commitments under the nuclear agreement.
• As a lawyer I defend human rights 
• As a lawyer I have always defended the people’s rights. I have defended human rights.
• Those who have violated the rights of people in the world must be held answerable.
• Those who have defended the rights of the people should be praised. 
• Even today I consider myself tasked to defend the right of all people all around the world. 
• This is my honor as prosecutor general to defend the rights and welfare of the people.
• Bident must lift all sanctions.
• Biden must prove his sincerity by lifting all sanctions.
• The Iranian people don’t have a good memory about the JCPOA.
• The Iranian missile program is not subject for negotiations. Why does the US which has not honored its commitments under the JCPOA is talking about other issues? 
• Certain Western countries are now home to assassinators of Ayatollah Mohammad Hossein Beheshti and prime minister Mohammad Ali Rajaei.
• The West must now be held accountable that why has it been hosting murders of Ayatollah Beheshti.
• Professionalism, revolutionary spirit, have the will to fight corruption will be the chief criterion for forming the government.
• We definitely pursue for implementation of comprehensive partnership with China
• We have a good relationship with China since the Islamic Revolution. There is great potential for cooperation. 
• Implementing the (25-year) comprehensive partnership will definitely be on the agenda.
• The Islamic Republic has been insisting on referendum for settling the Palestine conflict.
• Iran has always been defender of the oppressed people including the Palestinians and this has been stated in the constitution and being insisted on by Imam Khomeini and Leader of the Islamic Revolution.
• Saudis and it allies should stop war on Yemen. This war should be stopped immediately. Yemen should be managed by the Yemenis themselves.
• Iran, Saudi Arabia can reopen embassies. 
• Our priority is relations with neighbors. 
• In view of the Islamic Republic reopening embassies between Iran and Saudi Arabia is something that can happen.
• There should be no problem for relations between the two countries (Iran and Saudi Arabia) as well as dialogue with all regional countries 
• Investment by Iranians abroad is a priority.
• Helping Iranians return to the country is also on the agenda.
• The entrance of Iranians to the country should be facilitated.
• Investment by the Iranians living abroad in the country is highly prioritized. 
• Safety is for all and all investors should know that today the Islamic Republic of Iran is one of the safest places for investment and the government guarantees it.
• Talented persons can propose their views on better management of the country and a mechanism has been devised in which experts can present their ideas.

Taliban seizes control of 16 districts in Afghanistan

According to western media, Taliban continue to drive Afghan security forces from various districts throughout the country. Afghan forces are either surrendering or withdrawing from key administrative centers and security outposts. 

Taliban have taken over sixteen districts in 9 provinces, the latest being Kunduz City. Taliban currently controls 118 of Afghanistan’s 407 districts, while 190 districts are contested.

Afghan security forces have failed in halting the onslaught, particularly in the north, where Taliban control pace of movement and fighting. Afghan military and police units are either abandoning or surrendering. Afghan forces have only been able to retake control of three districts since May 1.

Taliban offensive in the north is especially troubling, as these provinces are home to many important Afghan government power brokers. There are growing fears that entire northern areas may be taken over of Taliban.

If northern areas go in to Taliban control, the Afghan government will be confined to south and east.

In Kunduz province, the Taliban “seized the [Kunduz City’s entrance before dispersing throughout its neighborhoods,” while fighting has been reported throughout the city, The New York Times reported.

Taliban overran Kunduz City in 2015 and 2016, and held it for a short period of time, before the US airpower and Special Forces played a key role in helping the Afghan military ejecting Taliban from the city. This weekend, Taliban also captured the district of Dasht-i-Archi in Kunduz province.

In one northern province, Takhar, the Taliban seized 8 districts – Baharak, Bangi, Chal, Hazar Somch, Khwaja Bahawuddin, Khuwaja Ghar, Namak Ab, and Yangi Qala – over the course of two days. Fighting has been reported outside of Taloqan, Takhar’s provincial capital, as well as Maimana, the capital of the troubled Faryab province.

In Takhar’s district of Baharak, “Around 110 members of police, army & members of local uprisings surrendered to Taliban” after being surrounded for three days, Bilal Sawary, an independent Afghan journalist reported.

Taliban executed the district head of the National Directorate of Security, which is hated by Taliban, and the “commander of local uprisings,” or tribal fighters that organize to fight the jihadists. In Khwaja Bahauddin district, Taliban overran “a large base and all its facilities,” according to Tariq Ghazniwal, a local Afghan journalist.

Also in northern Afghanistan, the Taliban took control of Chahar Bolak district in Balkh province, Dahan-e-Ghori in Baghlan province, Dara-e-Suf Bala in Samangan province, and Faizabad and Khanaqa in Jawzjan province.

In eastern Afghanistan, the Taliban seized Kharwar in Logar province, and in the southwest, the Taliban took Khash Rod in Nimroz.

Taliban have seized control of more than 50 districts since the US announced in mid-April to withdraw from Afghanistan by 11^th September 2021. The US military is no longer providing air support for Afghan forces as it focuses its efforts on withdrawing from the country.

Many of the districts that have been taken over by Taliban were previously contested, however, a handful of the districts were previously under Afghan government control (including three districts this weekend).

World leaders congratulate Ebrahim Raisi

World reacts to election of Iran’s new hardline President Ebrahim Raisi. While many leaders lined up to congratulate Raisi on his victory, some groups criticized his human rights record.

Iran

Outgoing President Rouhani visited Raisi at his office to congratulate him. “We will stand by and cooperate fully with the president-elect for the next 45 days, when the new government takes charge (in early August),” state media quoted Rouhani as saying.

Russia

Russian President Vladimir Putin congratulated Raisi and expressed hopes for “further development of a constructive bilateral cooperation”, according to RIA news agency citing a press officer at the Russian embassy in Tehran.

Pakistan

Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan said he looked forward to working with Raisi towards “further strengthening” of fraternal ties between Pakistan and Iran for “regional peace, progress and prosperity”.

Turkey

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan congratulated Raisi on his victory, saying he believed cooperation between the two neighbors would become stronger during Raisi’s term. “Stating my belief that cooperation between our two countries will strengthen during your presidency, I am ready to work together with you,” Erdogan said in a letter sent to Raisi.

Syria

Assad congratulated Raisi on his victory and said he was keen to work with the new president to strengthen ties between the two countries, a statement from the Syrian presidency said.

Iraq

“I extend my sincere congratulations and blessings on the occasion of your [Raisi’s] election as President of the Islamic Republic of Iran,” Iraq’s President Barham Salih said. “We in Iraq look forward to strengthening our solid relations with our neighbor Iran and its people.”

Hamas

“We congratulate the Islamic Republic of Iran for the success of the democratic process, the holding of the presidential election and the victory of Ebrahim Raisi as Iran’s president,” Hazem Qassem, Hamas spokesman in Gaza, said in a statement.

“We wish the Islamic Republic of Iran progress and prosperity. Iran has always been a fundamental and a real supporter of the Palestinian cause and the Palestinian resistance.”

United Arab Emirates

“We wish for the Islamic Republic, and for our bilateral relations, stability, continuity and prosperity,” Vice-President and de facto Dubai ruler Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid said in a statement tweeted by Dubai’s media office.

Abu Dhabi Crown Prince Sheikh Mohammed Bin Zayed also sent a message of congratulations to Raisi, state news agency WAM reported.

Human Rights Watch

Raisi’s path to presidency was through “repression and an unfair election”, Michael Page, deputy Middle East director at HRW, said in a statement.

“As head of Iran’s repressive judiciary, Raisi oversaw some of the most heinous crimes in Iran’s recent history, which deserve investigation and accountability rather than election to high office.”

Amnesty International

Head of human rights group Agnes Callamard said Raisi’s election win called for Raisi to be investigated for “crimes against humanity”.

“That Ebrahim Raisi has risen to the presidency instead of being investigated for the crimes against humanity of murder, enforced disappearance and torture, is a grim reminder that impunity reigns supreme in Iran,” she posted on Twitter.

“We continue to call for Ebrahim Raisi to be investigated for his involvement in past and ongoing crimes under international law, including by states that exercise universal jurisdiction.”