A new super powers contest would be a disaster for Southeast
Asian states which struggle to maintain autonomy and prefer to selectively
follow their wishes. The new world order must accommodate China’s interests and
the United States should compromise, rather than resisting the inevitable.
The colonial era in Southeast Asia extended from 15th to
late 20th century. During this period, the Western powers – including United
States competed for occupying and governing Southeast Asia. Although, the
colonies finally won independence, the colonial masters continue to impose
economic, political, cultural and sometimes military pressures to influence the
foreign and domestic policies of their former colonies.
Now a new neocolonial era is in the offing. This time, the
struggle for domination of the region is between the West and China. It is for
the control of commercial, technological and maritime as well as military
access. The current contest still involves coercion that clearly
challenges Southeast Asian countries’ independence and sovereignty. They were –
and are – viewed as pawn in a great power contest.
The world has changed dramatically since the previous
colonial and neocolonial periods in Southeast Asia. China has now risen and is
challenging the victors in the Cold War and the post-World War II order that
the US built and now leads.
In this new neocolonial era, the methods of “colonialism”
might have changed but the fundamental intent of subjugating Southeast Asian
nations to their national interest has not. Now, instead of physical conquest
and occupation, China and the United States are trying to impose their socio-economic
norms. This is manifested in the contest between China’s Belt and Road
Initiative and the US’ Free and Open Indo-Pacific and its spawn.
According to US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, China’s belt
and road is an attempt to create “vassal states [and] a tyrannical regime all
around the world for global hegemony”. China views the Indo-Pacific initiative
as an attempt to impose a Western version of new order on it and the region, thereby
constraining its rise and right to regional leadership.
Kiron Skinner, a former Director of Policy and Planning in
the US State Department said China and the US “seek adherence to their set of
values. This is a fight with a really different civilization and a different
ideology.” US Director of National Intelligence John Ratcliffe has called China
the “greatest threat to America today and the greatest threat to democracy
and freedom worldwide since World War II”. While many might dispute these assertions,
they do indicate the view deep within the upper reaches of the US government
foreign policy apparatus.
At its heart is a clash of political systems – “efficient”
authoritarian communism versus “inefficient” democratic capitalism –
and their underlying values. US leaders are worried that China is proving that
for itself and perhaps other developing countries, its system is superior in
the eyes of its people.
Although, the US hoped that China’s values and political
system would become more like its own over time, that is now recognized as
unlikely and probably always was. This has shaken the US establishment to the
core because it challenges the fundamental assumption that the world wanted to
– and would – become like it.
This clash of fundamental values and norms is driving the
US-China neocolonial competition for the political allegiance and support of
Southeast Asian countries. They will continue to pressure them to side with
their system.
Some Southeast Asian nations have tried to take advantage of
this contest by hedging and thus benefiting from the largesse of both
China’s economic strength and the US security blanket. However, this is proving
to be an increasingly dangerous game as the two competitors crank up the
pressure to choose sides. If there is resistance by Southeast Asian countries
to the entreaties of the competing powers, neither is beyond angry threats,
military intimidation and formal or informal sanctions to get their way.
A particular concern is that the intensifying competition for
influence and military dominance in the region could spill over into their
domestic politics, with the US and China each aiding its supporters and
hampering its opponents. This happened during the Cold War between the US and
the Soviet Union, and it could happen again.
This great power contest could be a disaster for some
Southeast Asian countries. These countries are struggling to maintain their
strategic autonomy and would like to follow great power wishes only when their
interests align, but they cannot resist such pressures alone. They need to do
so in unison.
However, their cohesion is in jeopardy. As outspoken
Philippines President Rodrigo Duterte warned, “The South China Sea issue
is Asean’s strategic challenge. How we deal with this matter lays bare our
strengths and weaknesses as a community.”
The colliding ambitions and values of China and the US
suggest the inevitability of a fundamental clash. The window for compromise is
closing. China is on an upwards trajectory of increasing power, not unlike
America was in its postcolonial days.
The US is still ahead and on top. It should compromise while
it can still significantly influence the terms rather than resist the
inevitable with needless suffering for all concerned. The international order
must at least partially accommodate China’s interests.
Of course, there will be stresses and strains, but
confrontation is the easy way out of this dilemma. The harder but better way
for all concerned is for the US to determine and negotiate where, when and how to
compromise on what.
History shows the US cannot be top dog forever. Negotiating
will provide an extension of its supremacy and the possibility of a soft
landing. The Joe Biden administration has an opportunity to move in this
direction.
