Iran Grain Conference opens in Tehran on 2nd December 2019

Tehran, Iranian capital will host 70 renowned foreign companies during a large international conference on grains, oilseeds and related industries on 2^nd and 3^rd December 2019.

The event titled “Iran Grain Conference 2019” is the largest conference ever held in Iran in the field of grains, Sharif Nezam-Mafi, the Board Chairman of Iran-Switzerland Joint Chamber of Commerce which is organizing the international gathering, said in a press conference.

Nezam-Mafi, who is the secretary of the event, said for the first time in the country a conference on grains includes the complete chain of the related products, technology, equipment, industries and all other related issues. “It is a prominent feature of Iran Grain Conference.”

Referring to the high number of participants and sponsors of the event, he said 450 applicants have registered to participate in the conference, of them 70 applicants are from other countries including Russia, Germany, Switzerland, Denmark, France, China, Turkey, Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan, and the event is sponsored by 35 companies and associations.

He said the foreign participants are all renowned companies in the international level and in fact they are all among the Ten Top companies of their countries in the related fields.

 Networking, major objective of conference

Nezam-Mafi further said that the main objective and role of Iran Grain Conference is “Networking” and in fact it tries to create a proper ground for the Iranian companies to find their foreign partners.

Many of foreign companies think that Iran is an importer of the consumer products, he said, adding, “We intend to let them know that Iran is a major producer in many fields.”

Many specialized panels

Elsewhere in his remarks, Nezam-Mafi referred to holding many specialized panels in various fields on the sidelines of the conference as another prominent feature of the international event and mentioned “Trade” as the subject of the first panel which will discuss international banking during the sanctions.

The panels mainly cover issues related to the future needs and limitations, for example those related to the climate change, and will discuss the possible resolutions, he informed. 

He also named some of the main speakers of the event as Yazdan Seif, Iran’s deputy agriculture minister and CEO of Government Trading Corporation of Iran (GTC), Masoud Khansari, the head of Tehran Chamber of Commerce, Industries, Mines and Agriculture (TCCIMA), Ferial Mostofi, a board member of Iran Chamber of Commerce, Industries, Mines and Agriculture (ICCIMA), and Markus Leitner, the Swiss ambassador to Tehran.

 To build a linking bridge

During the same press conference, Hossein Ziaian, one of the Board member of Iran Grain Conference, referred to the status of Iran in the grain market and said that given its potential the country should elevate its status in this field.

“Through inviting private sector and foreign companies we wanted to create a linking bridge through this conference in a way that Iran can promote its status especially during the current condition”, he underlined.

Creating a linking bridge between Iranian companies and foreign ones especially during the sanctions time is in fact a main objective of this international gathering, he noted.

Ziaian further said, “We are planning to hold provincial and regional conferences continuously after holding Iran Grain for further promotion of the country’s status in the field of grains.”

To expand export market

Hossein Yazdjerdi, another Board member of the Conference, who was also present in the press conference, said that Iraq, Afghanistan and North African countries are some major importers of flour in the region and Iran can benefit from this opportunity to expand its export market, adding that Iran Grain Conference is a platform to help the country promote its export status.

The organizers have made many efforts to make this conference as attractive as possible to address many important attendees, he underscored.

Yazdjerdi further elaborated on the status of wheat cultivating in Iran and said, “The good news is that we have achieved self-reliance in production of wheat, but in terms of the quality of this grain we should still try to promote it, as just 40 percent of our produced wheat is of high quality.”

To highlight Iran’s presence

Later in the press conference, Seyed Mohammadreza Mortazavi, the Board Chairman of Federation of Iranian Food Associations and also a Board Member of Iran Grain 2019, mentioned creating stable and effective ties as the major aim of holding this international event and expressed hope that it can highlight Iran’s presence in the global market.

“It is true that we are an importer of many grains, but Iran has a high potential for processing these products”, he further said.

“We have problems in cultivation, import and export of grains, but we hope to find the ways for stable supply of our required grains”, he added.

“There is a 10-year outlook for grain supply, but if the market is not managed properly, we will face serious problems”, the official commented, adding, “We should benefit from our geopolitical status to prevent such problems.”

Such conference missing in Iran

Kaveh Zargaran, Secretary General of Federation of Iranian Food Associations, who is also a board member of Iran Grain 2019, said, “For many years, we have been seeing that the neighboring countries which hold shares very lower than Iran’s share in the grain market, are holding such conferences, but it was missing in our country.”

Now, it is hoped that Iran Grain Conference can highlight the country’s role and status in the grain market, he mentioned in the same press conference.

Analysts using deception to keep oil price high

All the indicators suggest that global crude oil market is suffering from supply glut, mainly because of high shale oil production. Nothing seems to be moving oil price in any way other than Sino-US trade war. The western media is still trying to prove that very thing hinges on the two powerhouses striking a deal, be it global economic growth or oil demand. Any attempt to try to create bullish sentiments seems completely artificial and far away from ground realities.

The markets appear to have turned decidedly bearish with supply/demand imbalances drowning out everything else to the extent that even an epic event, attack on Saudi Aramco oil facilities proved storm in a cup of tea. The event that could have caused the biggest supply disruption in the history only provided a temporary support for prices. 

The western media is still busy in creating illusion by suggesting several scenarios that could induce rally in oil markets and put prices on upward trajectory once again. It is suspected that once a trade deal is reached, then geopolitical risk will again be able to create upsets and the often used recipe will be the rig count, which often creates the highest deception.

During the first week of November 2019, hedge fund bets on US benchmark, WTI that took its price to new highs. Even though US shale producers are pumping crude like crazy and adding to supply, hedge funds see reduced drilling as a sign of lower production next year. 

It can’t be ruled out that western media will use three scenarios for pushing oil prices higher in the near-and mid-term:

Sino-US deal

The long-running trade war between the world’s two biggest economies has brought about a general malaise to the global economy. Negotiations between Washington and Beijing have been long, intermittent and protracted with plenty of confusion.

It is often said, all’s well that ends well - finally, there seems to be some light at the end of the tunnel after the Trump-led team announced they have finalized ‘Phase One’ of the trade negotiations. Oil markets have largely remained indifferent, underlining just how much damage the trade spat has wrought on the global economy. Maybe all those platitudes about confidence bouncing back after an initial deal were a touch optimistic.

Geopolitical Risk

Rising geopolitical risks, particularly in the Middle East - home to more than 60 percent of the world’s oil reserves is bullish for oil. Tensions between Iran and Saudi Arabia reached a boiling point following the 14th September attacks on Aramco’s oil facilities. The New Iran Deal remains a highly emotive issue. Western media alleges Iran has kicked off another round of uranium enrichment. The International Atomic Energy Agency will release a new report, which will clarify whether Iran has been complying with its commitments or not.

The European Union is desperate to forge a new nuclear deal with Iran to replace the 2015 deal that Trump had quit last year. The EU is trying to create a Special Purpose Vehicle that can help the bloc circumvent US sanctions and continue buying Iranian oil. So far, it’s clear the sanctions are working, with oil exports from Iran on a continuous decline.

In the highly likely event that Trump and his European allies are unable to forge a new deal, tensions between Iran and Saudi Arabia are likely to escalate. While chances of an all-out war with the US or Saudi Arabia appear slim, tensions in the region are likely to remain high and increase the supply risk.

Declining inventories and rig count

In late October, oil prices surged 3 percent after the US Energy Information Administration reported a surprise decline in US crude inventories. The organization revealed that on a seasonal basis, gasoline demand in the US has been at its highest since 1991. Meanwhile, US oil rig count has been trending south for many months now. The latest Baker Hughes report showed a decline of 5 rigs from the preceding week to 817, and a massive fall from the 1,057 rigs reported at a corresponding point last year. So far, production has continued to rise amid the rig count collapse only because drillers are focusing on bringing the considerable fracklog of uncompleted wells online. Obviously, this can only go on for so long, and at some point, production is bound to get compromised. Right now, it’s the perfect time to play the short-term buy and sell game, buying on the dip and selling on the spike, as long as WTI is trading at a bottom range of between US$49 to US$55.

Can sustainable peace be established in Middle East?

One wonders why Middle East and North Africa (MENA) continue to suffer from internal turmoil as well as proxy wars. Some analysts say the single largest reason behind ongoing turmoil can be ongoing attempts to keep crude oil prices high to facilitate other countries to boost their domestic oil production.

The latest evidence was attack on Aramco facilities in Saudi Arabia to attract high subscription to Initial Public Offering (IPO). The immediate success was, China opting to take US$10 billion stake in one of the largest energy production facility in the world.

Reportedly, Saudi Arabia is making efforts to negotiate an end to the Yemen war by initiating a dialogue with Iran. This move is not likely to be approved by US President Donald Trump, the biggest proponent of maximum pressure on the Islamic republic.

Saudi officials hope that talks mediated by Oman and Britain between the kingdom and Houthi rebels will lead to a revival of stalled talks between the Yemeni insurgents and the Saudi-backed, internationally recognized government of Abed Rabbo Mansour Hadi.

 Saudi crown prince Mohammed bin Salman has tasked his younger brother and Saudi deputy defense minister, Khalid bin Salman, with engineering an end to the Yemeni war as part of a broader revamp of Saudi foreign policy.

The revamp involves a return to a more cautious foreign and defense policy that embraces multilateralism after several years in which the kingdom adopted an assertive and robust go it alone approach that produced several fiascos, including the Saudi-led intervention in Yemen initiated four and a half years ago. The revamp was prompted by attacks in September on two of the kingdom’s key oil facilities as well as doubts about the reliability of the US defense commitment to the Gulf.

The kingdom’s return to a more cautious approach is also intended to project itself in 2020 as president of the Group of 20 (G20) and repair its image tarnished by the Yemen War, the killing of journalist Jamal Khashoggi in 2018, and a domestic crackdown on dissent.

 Trump’s response to the September drone and missile attacks for which the Houthis were blames claimed in some ways was the clearest indication that Gulf States may not be able to count on the United States in times of crisis.

Trumph said that the attack was on Saudi Arabia and the US would certainly help them, but his adoption of a transactional attitude towards Gulf security did upset Saudi Arabia.

 It is being propagated by the US that the attacks on Saudi Arabia suggests that escalation of US-Iranian tensions would make them targets in an environment in which the United States may not wholeheartedly come to their rescue.

The US officials are also suggesting that now the Saudi policy is to lessen their involvement in Yemen and to stop Yemen being some version of a proxy so they (the Saudis) can deal directly with Iran.

United Nations Yemen envoy Martin Griffiths told the UN Security Council this week that the number of air attacks by the Saudi-led coalition had dropped by nearly 80% lately.

Griffiths said, “We call this de-escalation, a reduction in the tempo of the war and perhaps a move towards an overall ceasefire in Yemen,". He also expressed hopes that a negotiated end to the war could be achieved early next year.

However, the efforts to end war as well as gestures towards Iran in recent months by the United Arab Emirates did not stop senior Saudi and UAE officials from adopting a hard line.

“Appeasement simply cannot work with Iran. We hold Iran responsible for the attack on Abqaiq. We do not want war, but Iran needs to be held accountable” said Saudi Minister of State for Foreign Affairs Adel al-Jubeir at a Bahrain gathering.

Al-Jubeir’s UAE counterpart, Anwar Gargash added, “The key to stability is deterrence and steadfast resolve of the international community was that Iran must change. If not, sanctions must be increased, not loosened.”

Trump's favors to Netanyahu

Washington has always been Israel’s main ally, but support to Tel Aviv during the tenor of President Donald Trump is unprecedented. The US President has offered more favors to Israel and Benjamin Netanyahu, from recognizing al-Quds as Israel’s capital to backing settlements.

It may not be wrong to say that Trump has provided Netanyahu all the favors for which former Israeli prime ministers were eager to receive. One should not forget that all these favors are in contravention of international law and UN Resolutions,

For Israel, there was no time more pleasant than 13-year premiership of Netanyahu which coincided with Trump’s presidency. No US president has served the Israeli government like Trump.

Netanyahu, who has been facing corruption trial, has remained in power only because of Trump’s assistance. Despite his failure to form a cabinet in the second parliamentary elections in a year, Netanyahu continues to remain in power.

By shifting the forty-year US stance on Israel’s settlements in the occupied territories, Trump dealt his last blow to the Palestinian-Israeli peace process despite talking about the peace project propagated as “deal of the century”.

From 1979, President Jimmy Carter all US presidents have opposed the settlement, but Trump changed the forty-year policy. In 2016 and last days of Barack Obama’s presidency, the UN passed a resolution against Israel, which condemned the settlements in the West Bank.

The settlement policy was so inconsistent with international law and against peace with the Palestinians that even the United States refused to veto the UN Security Council resolution, contrary to what it had been doing for decades.

An extraordinary favor by Trump was to recognize Israel’s sovereignty over occupied Golan Heights. The action also was in line with reinforcing Netanyahu’s position in the election, a move which was objected by his rivals, who viewed it as interference in Israel’s internal affairs.   

The Golan Heights belong to Syria. Israel occupied the Golan Heights in 1967 and formally annexed it to the occupied territories in 1981. The annexation has been opposed by the international community. The US is the first country that has recognized Israel’s sovereignty over the Syrian territory.

A month later, Netanyahu, in a heavily propagandistic way and in line with his approach of luring Trump, announced that a city will be built after the name of Trump in the Golan Heights. Although, the plan was passed in the Knesset, no budget was approved for its implementation; it did not go beyond propaganda.

 Former US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, in a speech at Harvard University, called Netanyahu “an extraordinarily skilled” politician and said that Trump has been played by Israel’s prime minister.

Trump’s another favor to Netanyahu, but a blow to Palestine was recognition of al-Quds as Israel’s capital and to move the US embassy to the city. The action was considered as a huge success for Netanyahu, especially at a time that he was under political and judicial pressure.

All Palestinian groups, such as Hamas and the Islamic Jihad, as well as the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) opposed Trump’s action, and the relations between United States and Palestinian National Authority nosedived. Palestinian National Authority President Mahmoud Abbas called al-Quds the eternal capital of Palestine.

Now, one should wait and see whether Netanyahu, who has failed to form a cabinet in the last two elections, will remain in power or face the trial.

Afghanistan eyes boosting transit through Iranian Chabahar Port

According to an IRNA report, Afghanistan Ambassador to Iran, Abdul Ghafoor Liwal said his country plans to increase commodity transit through Iranian Chabahar Port. He made these remarks in a meeting with Abdolrahim Kordi, Chairman, Board of Chabahar Free Trade Industrial Zone Organization.

In the meeting, Liwal said expansion of all-out relations won’t be possible without stronger economic ties and “we are determined for stronger presence of our businessmen and traders in Chabahar Port.” 

“Chabahar is an economic and a transit bridge for Afghanistan and we are going to expand our economic relations through increasing exports and imports through Chabahar,” he said.

According to the official, following the country’s plans for boosting trade in Chabahar, setting up an Afghan bank branch in the port is one of the plans that Afghanistan is pursuing along with other programs to resolve issues like residency and certification problems.

Kordi underlined some of the port’s capacities and investment potentials, saying more than 176 Afghan companies have registered with Chabahar Free Trade Industrial Zone Organization for trade activities in the port, however only 32 of them are currently active.

“Chabahar is a strategic port and Afghan businessmen and traders need to have a greater presence in it and increase their investment,” emphasized Kordi.

If one can recall, in 2016, Iran, India and Afghanistan had decided to jointly establish a trade route for landlocked Central Asian countries. India committed up to US$500 million for the development of Iran’s Chabahar Port along with associated roads and rail lines. India launched a trade route to Afghanistan via Iran through shipping its first consignment of wheat to Afghanistan in late October 2017, bypassing longtime rival Pakistan.

Is Lebanon the next target of US lust for oil?

The protests and political upheavals in Lebanon and apprehensions by United States must be read very carefully. The developments in Lebanon have to be viewed with a different perspective after Lebanese Energy and Water Minister Neda Boustani announced the start of drilling of country’s first oil well in the waters off the coast of Beirut.

The oil well is to be drilled in the Mediterranean 30 kilometers from the Lebanese capital in the north. About a year and a half ago, Lebanon awarded its first offshore gas and oil exploration and production agreements to a consortium of France’s Total, Italy’s Eni and Russia’s Novatek for two blocks out of ten.

Ten oil blocks have been identified in the coastal waters of Lebanon with an area about 18,000 square kilometers.

The Americans, who have shown that the smell of oil drives them to the oil-rich countries, these days, pretend that they are really concerned about the situation in Lebanon and its people. Mike Pompeo, US secretary of state, has recently claimed that Iraqi and Lebanese people want their countries back from Iran.

The expression of concerns by the US over the situation in Lebanon, in the light of Boustani’s announcement, has led various Lebanese groups, especially Hezbollah, to feel the danger very well. Hezbollah Executive Council Deputy Chief Sheikh Ali Da’mush has warned that the US and its allies are seeking to undermine the political system in Lebanon and restructure it in their own favor.

The US wants a government comes to power which would be under its own control and implement Washington’s plans. For example, it wants Lebanon agree to demarcation of borders based on Israel’s wishes, grant projects for oil and gas extractions to US companies, permanently house the displaced Palestinian people, and target the axis of resistance and its missile power.

In addition to the United States, the Zionist regime is also happy with the unrest because Israel has disputes with Lebanon over common borders as well as oil and gas resources. Such an uprising provides the opportunity for Tel Aviv to plunder Lebanese natural resources.

The Zionist regime which is violating the Lebanese land, airspace and territorial waters frequently will take advantage of the protests in the country while Lebanese officials are doing their utmost to improve and calm the situation. Consequently, the officials will not be able to pay attention to regional issues, which is a matter that Hezbollah has repeatedly warned about.

Undoubtedly, one cannot have a positive view of sudden unrest in oil-rich countries in the Middle East under the shadow of US intervention. History has shown that oil-rich countries have always suffered from domestic tensions and crises so that Western powers, that usually lead the riots, can easily plunder their oil resources. 

In any case, it seems that after Syria, the US has specified Lebanon as its next destination for oil robbery, and US officials are expected to make specific comments on the developments in the country in future days.

Can OPEC opt for production cut?

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies face a major challenge in 2020 as demand for crude is expected to fall sharply.

The IEA estimated non-OPEC supply growth would surge to 2.3 million barrels per day (bpd) next year as compared to 1.8 million bpd in 2019, based on production hike in the United States, Brazil, Norway and Guyana.

The hefty supply cushion that is likely to build up during the first half of next year will offer cold comfort to OPEC+ ministers gathering in Vienna at the start of next month.

While US supply rose by 145,000 bpd in October, the IEA said, a slowdown in activity that started earlier this year looks set to continue as companies prioritize capital discipline.

Demand for crude oil from OPEC in 2020 will be 28.9 million bpd, the IEA forecast; one million bpd below the exporter club’s current production.

The recovery by OPEC’s de facto leader Saudi Arabia from attacks on the country’s oil infrastructure contributed 1.4 million bpd to the global oil supply increase in October of 1.5 million bpd.

With plans underway for the Aramco IPO and the persistent need for revenues to fund the government budget, Riyadh has every incentive to keep oil prices supported.

Saudi state oil company Aramco, the world’s most profitable firm, scheduled to start its share sale on 17^th November in an IPO that may help in mobilizing between US$20 billion to US$40 billion.

The IEA said that if some or all tariffs were lifted in coming months, world economic growth and oil demand growth would both rise significantly, though the rebound may not be immediate.

Sluggish refinery activity in the first three quarters has caused crude oil demand to fall in 2019 for the first time since 2009, but refining is set to rebound sharply in the fourth quarter and in 2020.

Washington looting Syrian oil

Recently released satellite images by the Russian Defense Ministry show tank trucks guarded by US military servicemen and private military companies were busy in smuggling oil from fields in the eastern part of Syria to other countries. It suggests that Washington is looting Syrian oil and transporting it to outside Syrian territories under American military guard. The revenues of the US government from the theft were estimated more than US$30 million per month.

Washington is capturing and holding oil fields under its control in the eastern part of Syria. This is a clear international state-sponsored gangsterism, say Russians. These resources inside the Syrian territories belong to the Syrian Arab Republic. They neither belong to Daesh nor to the American protectors. The cost of one barrel of oil smuggled from Syria estimated at US$38 generates monthly revenue for the private business exceeds US$30 million.

While US President Donald Trump has ordered a partial withdrawal of the approximately 1,000 US troops from Syrian territory, who have been enforcing an illegal military occupation under international law. The US President himself and US officials have admitted that some will be staying in Syrian. They will remain on Syrian soil not to ensure the safety of any group of people, but rather to maintain control over oil and gas fields. Donald said openly, “We want to keep the oil.”

The US military has already killed hundreds of Syrians, and possibly even some Russians, precisely in order to hold on to these Syrian fossil fuel reserves. Washington’s obsession with toppling the Syrian government refuses to die. The US remains committed to preventing Damascus from retaking its own oil, as well as its wheat-producing breadbasket region, in order to starve the government of revenue and prevent it from funding reconstruction efforts.

It is for the first time, Trump has openly confirmed the imperialist ulterior motives behind maintaining a US military presence in Syria. “We want to keep the oil,” Trump confessed in a cabinet meeting on October 21. “Maybe we’ll have one of our big oil companies to go in and do it properly.”

Few days earlier, the president had tweeted, “The US has secured the Oil.” “President Trump is leaning in favor of a new Pentagon plan to keep a small contingent of American troops in eastern Syria, perhaps numbering about 200, to combat the Islamic State and block the advance of Syrian government and Russian forces into the region’s coveted oil fields.

“We secured the oil (in Syria), and therefore a small number of US troops will remain in the area where they have the oil,” Trump said. “And we’re going to be protecting it. And we’ll be deciding what we’re going to do with it in the future.”

“We have troops in towns in northeast Syria that are located next to the oil fields. The troops in those towns are not in the present phase of withdrawal. Our forces will remain in the towns that are located near the oil fields.

Unlike Trump, others offer an excuse to justify the continued US military occupation of Syria’s oil fields. He insisted that American soldiers remain to help the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) hold on to the resources and prevent ISIS jihadists from taking them over.

But any observer who carefully witnessed the press confirmation during his press conference would have been able to detect the real goal behind the prolonged US presence in northeastern Syria. It seems the purpose of those troops, working with the SDF, is to deny access to those oil fields by ISIS and others who may benefit from revenues that could be earned.

It is clear that the US strategy is to prevent Syria’s UN-recognized government and the Syrian majority that lives under its control from retaking their own oil fields and reaping the benefits of their revenue. US military massacred hundreds to keep control of Syrian oil fields. This is not just speculation. CNN made it plain when reported the following in an undeniably blunt passage, citing anonymous US senior military officials:

The oil fields are assets that have also been long sought after by Russia and the Assad regime, which is strapped for cash after years of civil war. Both Moscow and Damascus hope to use oil revenues to help rebuild western Syria and solidify the regime’s hold. CNN acknowledged that the US military had killed up to “hundreds” of Syrian and Russia-backed fighters seeking to gain access to Syria’s oil fields. It massacred these fighters not for humanitarian reasons, but to prevent the Syrian government from using “oil revenues to help rebuild western Syria.”

This shockingly direct admission flew in the face of the popular myth that the US was keeping troops in Syria to protect Kurds from an assault by NATO member Turkey. The CNN report was an apparent reference to the Battle of Khasham, a little known but important episode in the eight-year international proxy war in Syria.

The battle unfolded on February 7, 2018, when the Syrian military and its allies launched an attack to try to retake major oil and gas reserves in Syria’s Deir ez-Zour governorate, which were being occupied by American troops and their Kurdish proxies. The US has aimed to prevent Damascus from retaking profitable territory, starving it of natural resources from fossil fuels to basic foodstuffs.

In 2015, the then President Barack Obama deployed US troops to northeastern Syria on the grounds of helping the Kurdish militia the People’s Protection Units (YPG) fight ISIS. What started as several dozen US special operations forces quickly ballooned into some 2,000 troops, largely stationed in northeastern Syria.

While Trump has pledged to bring US soldiers home and end their military occupation of Syrian territory, it is evident that the broader regime change war continues. A brutal economic war on Damascus is escalating, not only through sanctions but through the theft of Syria’s natural treasures by foreign powers.

Malaysia likely next victim of trade sanctions by United States

Lately, Malaysian Prime Minister, Mahathir Mohamad has expressed concerns that his exports-reliant country could be hit with trade sanctions amid rising protectionism highlighted by the Sino-US tariff war. While Mahathir did not mention the source of possible sanctions on the Southeast Asian country, he expressed disappointment the way proponents of free trade were now indulging in restrictive trade practices on a grand scale.

“Unfortunately, we are caught in the middle,” said Mahathir referring to the Sino-US trade war. “Economically we are linked to both markets, and physically we are also caught in between for geographical reasons. There are even suggestions that we ourselves would be a target for sanctions,” he added

The US and China were two of the three biggest export destinations for Malaysia between January and August this year. Singapore was the top destination.

To cushion the impact of the collision between the superpowers, Mahathir said Malaysia was collaborating more with its regional neighbors.

Mahathir also complained of being bullied by powerful nations, referring to a campaign by European countries against Malaysia’s agricultural mainstay, palm oil. The edible oil contributed 2.8% of Malaysia’s gross domestic product last year and 4.5% to total exports.

“Having cleared most of their forests and refusing to reduce their noxious emissions, they now try to impoverish the poor by preventing them from clearing their forest for living space and earning a living,” he said.

The European Union passed an act earlier this year to phase out palm oil from renewable fuel by 2030 due to deforestation concerns.

There are also concerns that India, one of the biggest buyers of Malaysian palm oil, would restrict imports of the product due to a diplomatic row over comments made by Mahathir on New Delhi’s recent actions in the disputed South Asian region of Kashmir.

Moreover, countries are reeling under the pain inflicted by a trade war between the most powerful economies; there is international political turmoil; savage conflicts and widespread terrorism are killing millions; and budgets that should be devoted to helping the poor are being used to buy and maintain expensive weapons of war, he said.

“There is something wrong with our way of thinking, with our value system … we still believe that conflict between nations can be resolved with war,” added the Malaysian Prime Minister.

He went on to say that “free trade” means “no protection” for small countries and their small industries, with simple products of the poor subjected to clever barriers that prevent their sale to rich markets. At the same time, globalization, despite its benefits, has imperilled the independence of smaller countries.

Applauding the efforts of the UN to end poverty, protect the environment and bring peace to all countries, Prime Minister Mahathir, underscored the need for reform in the Organization, particularly the Security Council.

“Five countries on the basis of their 70-year-old war victories cannot claim to have a right to hold the world to ransom forever,” he said, underling the need to reform the veto rights in the Security Council.

Who killed Gaddafi?

I was amazed to read two headlines lately: 1) Declassified e-mails reveal NATO killed Gaddafi to stop Libyan creation of gold- backed currency and 2) Declassified emails reveal Gaddaffi was brutally murdered because France wanted to maintain its financial stranglehold on African Nations. I am inclined to believe that the latest attempt to malign France is aimed at saving Hillary Clinton, the then US Secretary of State.

This also reminded me of one of my blogs written as back as September 2012. Its caption was “Chris Stevens a diplomat or spy” https://shkazmipk.blogspot.com/2012/09/chrisstevens-diplomat-or-spy-killing-of.html.  I wrote this after Killing of Christopher Stevens, US Ambassador in Libya and his portrayal as friend of ‘freedom’ fighters. In the recent past many countries have been alleging that spies have become an integral part of the US diplomatic core.

Reportedly, one of the over 3,000 new Hillary Clinton emails released by the State Department on 2016 New Year’s Eve, contain damning evidence of Western nations using NATO as a tool to topple Libyan leader Muammar al-Gaddafi. The NATO overthrow was not for the protection of the people, but instead it was to thwart Gaddafi’s attempt to create a gold-backed African currency to compete with the Western central banking monopoly.

The April 2011 email, sent to the Secretary of State Hillary by unofficial adviser and longtime Clinton confidante Sidney Blumenthal with the subject line “France’s client and Qaddafi’s gold,” reveals predatory Western intentions.

The emails indicate the French-led NATO military initiative in Libya was also driven by a desire to gain access to a greater share of Libyan oil production, and to undermine a long term plan by Gaddafi to supplant France as the dominant power in the Francophone Africa region.

The email identifies French President Nicholas Sarkozy as leading the attack on Libya with five specific purposes in mind: to obtain Libyan oil, ensure French influence in the region, increase Sarkozy’s reputation domestically, assert French military power, and to prevent Gaddafi’s influence in what is considered “Francophone Africa.”

Most astounding is the lengthy section delineating the huge threat that Gaddafi’s gold and silver reserves, estimated at “143 tons of gold, and a similar amount in silver,” posed to the French franc (CFA) circulating as a prime African currency.

The email makes clear that intelligence sources indicate the impetus behind the French attack on Libya was a calculated move to consolidate greater power, using NATO as a tool for imperialist conquest, not a humanitarian intervention as the public was falsely led to believe.

This gold was accumulated prior to the current rebellion and was intended to be used to establish a pan-African currency based on the Libyan golden Dinar. This plan was designed to provide the Francophone African Countries with an alternative to the French Franc (CFA).

According to knowledgeable individuals this quantity of gold and silver is valued at more than $7 billion. French intelligence officers discovered this plan shortly after the current rebellion began, and this was one of the factors that influenced President Nicolas Sarkozy’s decision to commit France to the attack on Libya.

The email provides a peek behind the curtain to reveal how foreign policy is often carried out in practice. While reported in the media that the Western backed Libyan military intervention is necessary to save human lives, the real driving factor behind the intervention was shown to be the fact that Gaddafi planned to create a high degree of economic independence with a new pan-African currency, which would lessen French influence and power in the region.

The evidence indicates that when French intelligence became aware of the Libyan initiative to create a currency to compete with the Western central banking system, the decision to subvert the plan through military means began, ultimately including the NATO alliance.

Who has attacked Iranian oil tanker?

Reportedly, an Iranian oil tanker Sabiti was hit by missiles in Red Sea waters off Saudi Arabia on Friday. The incident is likely to further heighten friction in the region already rattled by attacks on tankers and oil installations since May. Oil prices rose on the news of the incident and industry sources said it could drive up already high shipping costs.

The Red Sea is a major global shipping route for oil and other trade, linking the Indian Ocean with the Mediterranean via the Suez Canal.

It is the latest incident involving oil tankers in the Red Sea and Gulf region, and may ratchet up tensions between Iran and Saudi Arabia, long-time regional adversaries fighting a proxy war in Yemen, at the southern end of the Red Sea.

There was no claim of responsibility for the reported incident and it has yet to be independently confirmed.

The proximity of the tanker at the time of the attack to Saudi Arabia’s Jeddah port gives western media to allege that the missiles could have been launched from the kingdom.

Another plausible theory could be that the ship was hit in an Israeli sabotage operation. The purpose would be to disrupt Iranian tanker activity in the Red Sea corridor as it heads toward the Suez Canal. A third possibility would be that the attack was conducted by a terrorist group.

An Iranian government spokesman has described targeting of an Iranian-owned oil tanker by missiles as a “cowardly attack” and said Iran would respond after the facts had been studied.

“Iran is avoiding haste, carefully examining what has happened and probing facts,” government spokesman Ali Rabei, siad.

Separately, a senior security official said video evidence had provided leads about the incident, adding that the Sabiti was hit by two missiles.

“A special committee has been set up to investigate the attack on Sabiti... with two missiles and its report will soon be submitted to the authorities for decision,” said Ali Shamkhani, secretary of Iran’s top security body.

“Piracy and mischief on international waterways aimed at making commercial shipping insecure will not go unanswered,” he said.

According to Iranian sources, leakage of cargo from the tanker has been stopped as it heads for the Gulf. The tanker is heading for Persian Gulf waters and it was expected to enter Iranian waters safely. Nasrollah Sardashti, head of National Iranian Tanker Company (NITC) that owns the damaged tanker, said the crew was safe and the vessel would reach Iranian waters within 10 days.

Saudi Arabia said it received a distress message from the damaged tanker but the vessel kept moving and switched off its transponder before it could be provide assistance.

The United States has been balaming Iran for attacks on tankers in the Gulf in May and June as well as for strikes on Saudi oil sites in September. Tehran has denied having a role in any of them.

The U.S. Navy’s Fifth Fleet, which operates in the region, said it was aware of the reports but had no further information.

According to western media, at times, Iranian narratives offer diverging accounts. State-run television, citing the national oil company, said the tanker was hit by missiles while denying a report they came from Saudi Arabia.

It also said, Iran’s Foreign Ministry said the ship was hit twice, without saying what struck it. State television broadcast images from the Sabiti’s deck saying they were taken after the attack but showing no visible damage. The ship’s hull was not in view.

Political risk consultancy Eurasia Group said it did not have firm evidence about who may have been behind the incident.

Media in United States in the grip of intelligence agents

Some of my blog readers did not like a term coined by me “Dishonest Western Media”. Today I got an opportunity to read an article in "Information Clearing House", I am happy to share it verbatim.

After years in the shadows overseeing espionage, kill programs, warrantless wiretapping, entrapment, psyops and other covert operations, national security establishment retirees are are turning to a new line of work where they can carry out their imperial duties.

That is, propagandizing the public on cable news. Reborn as cable news pundits, these people are cashing in. So many years working in the dark, only to emerge in the studio lights of the same networks that rail all day everyday against state TV from countries that America hates.

It may look crazy how many former spooks have been hired at corporate news outlets like CNN and MSNBC as “analysts”. After spending their careers serving the national security state, they get to shape the news under the guise of expertise. It’s like state TV

Following is but a partial list of prominent former spooks turned mainstream media pundits and analysts, to say nothing of the even greater numbers of retired generals the network continuously rely on. 

Former CIA Director John Brennan who is now an NBC News senior national security and intelligence analyst

Fran Townsend, former homeland security advisor to George W. Bush. She's now a CBS News senior national security analyst. 

But CNN takes the cake — it's the biggest spook show of all

Jim Clapper, former Director of National Intelligence, now a CNN national security analyst

Retired General Michael Hayden, former director of the CIA and the NSA, now a CNN national security analyst

Asha Rangappa, former FBI special agent, now CNN legal analyst

James Gagliano, a retired FBI supervisory special agent, now a CNN law enforcement analyst

Tony Bliken, former deputy secretary of state and former deputy national security advisor, and now CNN global affairs analyst

Mike Rogers, former chair of the House Intelligence Committee, now CNN national security commentator

Samantha Vinograd senior advisor to the national security advisor under President Obama, now CNN national security analyst

Steven Hall, retired CIA chief of Russia operations, now a CNN national security analyst

Philip Mudd, former CIA counter-terrorism official, now CNN counter-terrorism analyst

If Strait of Hormuz Blocked, Can Saudi Arab Overcome Oil Supply Crisis?

After 14/9 attacks on Aramco installations, some critics doubted the capacity of Saudi Arabia to guarantee adequate and uninterrupted oil flows to the market. The narrative of these analysts is not based on current situation but a temporary closure of the Strait of Hormuz, in case of a full blown war between Saudi Arab and Iran. They conclude, Saudi Arabia may be capable of doing a lot, but saving the global economy if the Gulf explodes is not one of its capabilities.

They say, Saudi Arab will not be able to keep the necessary crude oil and products volumes flowing to Asian and European markets in the case of blockade of Strait of Hormuz, even though Saudi Arab owns and operates a crude oil pipeline with a capacity of 5 million bpd, carrying crude 1,200 kilometers between the Arabian Gulf and Red Sea.

They also say, Saudi move to stabilize the current market is praiseworthy, especially just before the upcoming meeting of OPEC+ in Vienna. Saudi Arab has been saying that it is capable of supplying sufficient crude through the Red Sea, reiterating that the necessary pipeline and terminal infrastructure is there. These critics say, Saudi Arab can only assure its supply, which may be not higher this summer than around the level this pipeline can support. The real issue, if it comes to a full-blown conflict, is that not only Saudi oil is being threatened.

Reportedly, around 20 million bpd of crude and petroleum products are transported via the Strait of Hormuz, at present. Saudi exports are significant, but other countries include UAE, Iraq, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar and Iran, who will have to explore alternative routes. They warn, any military action in the region can cause a temporary disruption for all maritime traffic.

Besides the options that are the already on the table, such as the Saudi onshore pipeline and the UAE’s Fujairah pipeline, no other real alternatives are available, as overland trucking or rail transport is minimal. Transferring volumes via the Saudi and UAE’s pipelines is not an option at all, as the total capacity of the two is less than 10 million bpd, representing not even 50% of the current maritime flows through Hormuz. Another thing that should be noted is that pipelines can’t ship crude and crude products at the same time.

Another consequence of a blockade would be that most available VLCCs and other tankers will either be in the Persian Gulf and blocked or will not be able to be rerouted, before the market finds solution days and probably weeks will have gone by and a price spike for all products cannot be ruled out.

Only a few analysts are talking about oilfield security and pipeline availability. Any military advisor will put these options as part of his or her 1st phase military action plan. If Iran were to be attacked, or faces a surgical strike by an opponent, all Arab oil and gas infrastructure will become a legitimate offensive target, least in the eyes of Tehran and its proxies.

Looking at the majority of oil and gas production assets and infrastructure in the Arab world, especially in Saudi Arabia, UAE or even Iraq, everything is in reach of short-distance missiles, fighter jets, and even drones. Any move against Iran will result in a full-scale attack on Saudi’s Eastern Province, which produces 80% of all its oil and gas, Abu Dhabi’s offshore oil infrastructure and the regional pipelines. Looking at history, denying energy access and diminishing the opponent’s stability are on top of military strategy.

At present, oil market is a victim of geopolitical power projections of emotional leaders superseding rationality. The continuing references to Iran-Iraq tanker war during 1980-1988 is out of touch with reality. At this time, it is not going to be Iran denying support or trade with Iraq, but a possible Arab-Iranian confrontation, led by the US if no countermeasures are being implemented.

Iran Saudi Rapprochement

According to media reports Saudi Arabia has given a green light to Iraqi Prime Minister Adel Abdul Mahdi to arrange a meeting with Iran as a first step towards deescalating tensions in the region.

Abbas al-Hasnawi, an official in the prime minister’s office, informed that Abdul Mahdi was mediating between the leaderships in Riyadh and Tehran and had communicated each side’s conditions for talks to the other.

The remarks came after Iranian government spokesman Ali Rabiei said Saudi Arabia had sent messages to Iranian President Hassan Rouhani via the leaders of some countries.

Hasnawi confirmed that Abdul Mahdi was acting as a mediator with the aim of easing tensions after Iran was alleged for September 14 attacks on Saudi oil facilities.

“The Iraqi leadership has channels with both sides. Our Sunni brothers [in the government] liaise with the Saudis and our Shia brothers with the Iranians,” he said.

“The Saudis have conditions before the negotiations process starts and the same with Iranians. We have liaised these conditions to each side. It is not an easy task to get together two opposite sides in terms of their ideology, sect and their alliances in the region.”

Earlier, the Iraqi prime minister had said he believed Saudi Arabia was looking to deescalate tensions with Iran.

In an interview with Al Jazeera, he said that it is in everybody’s interest to prevent further war in the region.

“Nobody possesses the weapons necessary to deal their adversary a fatal blow. Chaos and destruction will hit the region in its entirety,” he said.

“Everybody is open to dialogue,” he said. “Iran says [it is] willing to negotiate if sanctions are lifted; the U.S. [also] asks for dialogue ... neither does Saudi Arabia close the door for dialogue,” Abdul Hadi added.

“There are many countries, and Iraq is one of them, that can offer a solution or a place for a solution to be found.”

In an interview with the CBS program “60 Minutes” broadcast, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman said he preferred a political resolution rather than a military one to the issues with Iran.

A war with Iran would lead to “a total collapse of the global economy”, he said, as he called for a political solution and backed talks between US President Donald Trump and Iran’s leaders.  

“The political and peaceful solution is much better than the military one,” he added.

Iranian Parliament Speaker Ali Larijani welcomed the Saudi crown prince’s willingness to resolve disputes with Tehran through talks, saying Iran’s doors are open to the Saudis.

Larijani said if Iran and Saudi Arabia hold talks, many of the region’s security and political problems would be resolved.

“We want to create a security system in the Persian Gulf with cooperation of all Persian Gulf states,” said Larijani.

Tensions in the Persian Gulf have heightened following the attack on Saudi oil fields, for which Riyadh and their Western allies, especially the US blamed Iran.

Iran has rejected the claim that it is behind the attack on the Saudi oil sites, calling it a “great deceit” in line with “great pressure” campaign on the Islamic Republic.

Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif said last month that “even the Saudis themselves don't believe the fiction of Iranian involvement” in the attacks on the Aramco oil facilities.

Western Media Adamant at Initiating War between Saudi Arabia and Iran

It may not be wrong to say that the western media loves when the United States bombs countries. Even at present such media houses are adamant at starting war between Saudi Arabia and Iran by propagating anti-Iran narrative and running it again and again. There is consensus that they use the content till attack on Iran becomes a reality. Most of the coverage on Aramco attack, accuse Iran for the attacks.

Surprisingly, neither the US nor Saudi Arabia have so far presented or shared any credible evidence that can prove Iran launched the attack on Aramco. Riyadh put on display a wreckage of what it said were remnants of weapons used in the attacks. It was claimed the wreckage showed the attacks were unquestionably sponsored by Tehran, but many believe the assemblage of junk were not the concrete evidence.

When US President Donald Trump decided to impose yet another round of sanctions to punish the people of Iran for what there is no public proof of, western media was furious that he has backed away from an all-out war. They are demanding why he is not initiating another military conflict in the Middle East.

The latest series of strikes on Saudi Arabian targets this year, were launched from south-western Iran using drones and cruise missiles. The strike on Aramco fits in the pattern of Yemeni strikes against Saudi economic infrastructure. There is no plausible reason to believe Iran was behind the attacks, and it’s even unclear if Iran has indirectly played a role in the attacks. Although the US government and establishment media often call the Houthis a proxy of Iran, it is an independent force grown out of decades-long conflict in Yemen. The extent to which Iran offers support to the Yemeni forces has never been established.

A columnist suggested Iran was behind the attack. A paragraph says,” Iran has been testing drones and supplying them to regional allies such as Hezbollah for years. It was also said that the missiles were reportedly able to evade Saudi air defenses.

Another article “United States sending troops to bolster Saudi defenses after attack”, says the US officials told that Southwest Iran was the staging ground for the attack that might has been authorized by Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The article says, an assessment based at least in part on still-classified imagery showing Iran appearing to prepare an aerial strike.

A pep into the recent history tells, when President Trump ordered missile strike on Syria’s Shayrat Air Base in April 2017, it was widely admired by the western media. A day after the attack a reporter said he thinks Trump had just became President of the United States. Another asserted he has put the credibility of American power,” and yet another claimed, “We finally have a man who knows the difference between right and wrong and good and evil, and it makes us proud.”

All this was not new, in the past the barrage of propaganda directed at the American public forced them believe that Saddam Hussein was personally involved in 9/11 attacks. That was a significant achievement in manipulation. The poll results must have been news for the Iraqi dictator himself, a forgotten one-time American ally, who fought a proxy war with Iran, spread over a decade.

Have Moscow and Tehran essentially turned away from United States Dollar?

“Russia and Iran will transfer payments using an alternative system to the internationally recognized SWIFT money transfer network, Governor of Iranian central bank, Abdolnaser Hemmati”, has announced.

Instead of SWIFT, a system that facilitates cross-border payments between 11,000 financial institutions in more than 200 countries worldwide, the two countries will use their own domestically developed financial messaging systems – Iran’s SEPAM and Russia’s SPFS.

“Using this system for trade and business exchanges between EAEU (Eurasian Economic Union) member states can help develop and expand trade exchanges between the member states as well,” Abdolnaser Hemmati said.

Tehran is set to officially join the Russia-led free-trade zone, the EAEU shortly. The document on Iran’s participation was ratified in June by the nation’s parliament (Majlis) and President Hassan Rouhani has already ordered that the free trade zone agreement be implemented.

Earlier this month, Russian presidential aide Yury Ushakov said that Tehran and Moscow are developing an alternative to SWIFT. Russia began development of SPFS in 2014 amid Washington’s threats to disconnect the country from SWIFT.

The first transaction on the SPFS network involving a non-bank enterprise was made in December 2017. Around 500 participants, including major Russian financial institutions and companies, have already joined the payment channel, while some foreign banks have shown interest in joining.

Last year, Belgium-based SWIFT cut off some Iranian banks from its messaging system. It came after US President Donald Trump abandoned the landmark nuclear deal with the Islamic Republic and resumed US sanctions against Tehran.

Moscow and Tehran have essentially turned away from the greenback in bilateral trade, and are using the Ruble and Rial for payments. Turning to cross-currency trade was a vital issue for both Russia and Iran, and the two countries are planning to use all available means to boost these efforts.

“We have already essentially dropped the dollar in cooperation with the Iranians, we will rely on the Russian Ruble and the Iranian Rial, [and] in case of urgent need, on the Euro, if we have no other options,” the diplomat said. He added that banking structures in both countries have the potential to cope with this “difficult” task.

Despite efforts by European countries to keep trading with the Islamic Republic after the US pulled out of the nuclear agreement, their efforts still do not fully address Tehran’s interests, Dzhagaryan believes.

The diplomat said that the payment system recently created by France, Germany and the UK to facilitate trade with Iran raises “more questions than it answers,” claiming that it does not change the state of affairs for Tehran.

He explained that the Instrument in Support of Trade Exchanges (INSTEX) covers only items not blacklisted by the US, but does not apply to vital sectors of trade for Iran.

“Oil is the most important [sector] for Iran. It is a huge question if Europe can allow the proper volume of oil exports and flow of revenue to the Iranian budget,” Dzhagaryan stated. “EU countries should show that they can carry independent foreign policy without fearing any warnings from overseas partners.”

Russia along with several other countries, including India, China and Turkey – has been accelerating efforts to fight the dominance of the US currency in global trade amid rising tensions with Washington. Last year, Russian President Vladimir Putin called on the member states of the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) to create a common dollar-less payment system for boosting economic sovereignty. The bloc, which consists of Russia, Kazakhstan, Belarus, Kyrgyzstan and Armenia, has free trade agreements with multiple partners across the globe, including Iran and China.