One wonders why Middle East and North Africa (MENA) continue
to suffer from internal turmoil as well as proxy wars. Some analysts say the
single largest reason behind ongoing turmoil can be ongoing attempts to keep
crude oil prices high to facilitate other countries to boost their domestic oil
production.
The latest evidence was attack on Aramco facilities in Saudi
Arabia to attract high subscription to Initial Public Offering (IPO). The
immediate success was, China opting to take US$10 billion stake in one of the
largest energy production facility in the world.
Reportedly, Saudi Arabia is making efforts to negotiate an
end to the Yemen war by initiating a dialogue with Iran. This move is not likely
to be approved by US President Donald Trump, the biggest proponent of maximum
pressure on the Islamic republic.
Saudi officials hope that talks mediated by Oman and
Britain between the kingdom and Houthi rebels will lead to a revival of
stalled talks between the Yemeni insurgents and the Saudi-backed,
internationally recognized government of Abed Rabbo Mansour Hadi.
Saudi crown prince Mohammed bin Salman has tasked his
younger brother and Saudi deputy defense minister, Khalid bin Salman, with
engineering an end to the Yemeni war as part of a broader revamp of Saudi
foreign policy.
The revamp involves a return to a more cautious foreign and
defense policy that embraces multilateralism after several years in which the
kingdom adopted an assertive and robust go it alone approach that produced
several fiascos, including the Saudi-led intervention in Yemen initiated four
and a half years ago. The revamp was prompted by attacks in September on
two of the kingdom’s key oil facilities as well as doubts about the reliability
of the US defense commitment to the Gulf.
The kingdom’s return to a more cautious approach is also
intended to project itself in 2020 as president of the Group of 20 (G20)
and repair its image tarnished by the Yemen War, the killing of journalist
Jamal Khashoggi in 2018, and a domestic crackdown on dissent.
Trump’s response to the September drone and missile
attacks for which the Houthis were blames claimed in some ways was the clearest
indication that Gulf States may not be able to count on the United States in
times of crisis.
Trumph said that the attack was on Saudi Arabia and the US
would certainly help them, but his adoption of a transactional attitude towards
Gulf security did upset Saudi Arabia.
It is being propagated by the US that the attacks on
Saudi Arabia suggests that escalation of US-Iranian tensions would make them
targets in an environment in which the United States may not wholeheartedly
come to their rescue.
The US officials are also suggesting that now the Saudi
policy is to lessen their involvement in Yemen and to stop Yemen being some
version of a proxy so they (the Saudis) can deal directly with Iran.
United Nations Yemen envoy Martin Griffiths told the UN
Security Council this week that the number of air attacks by the Saudi-led
coalition had dropped by nearly 80% lately.
Griffiths said, “We call this de-escalation, a reduction in
the tempo of the war and perhaps a move towards an overall ceasefire in
Yemen,". He also expressed hopes that a negotiated end to the war could be
achieved early next year.
However, the efforts to end war as well as gestures towards
Iran in recent months by the United Arab Emirates did not stop senior Saudi and
UAE officials from adopting a hard line.
“Appeasement simply cannot work with Iran. We hold Iran responsible
for the attack on Abqaiq. We do not want war, but Iran needs to be held
accountable” said Saudi Minister of State for Foreign Affairs Adel al-Jubeir at
a Bahrain gathering.
Al-Jubeir’s UAE counterpart, Anwar Gargash added, “The key
to stability is deterrence and steadfast resolve of the international community
was that Iran must change. If not, sanctions must be increased, not
loosened.”
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