All the indicators suggest that global crude oil market is
suffering from supply glut, mainly because of high shale oil production. Nothing
seems to be moving oil price in any way other than Sino-US trade war. The
western media is still trying to prove that very thing hinges on the two
powerhouses striking a deal, be it global economic growth or oil demand. Any
attempt to try to create bullish sentiments seems completely artificial and far
away from ground realities.
The markets appear to have turned decidedly bearish with
supply/demand imbalances drowning out everything else to the extent that even
an epic event, attack on Saudi Aramco oil facilities proved storm in a cup of
tea. The event that could have caused the biggest supply disruption in the
history only provided a temporary support for prices.
The western media is still busy in creating illusion by
suggesting several scenarios that could induce rally in oil markets and put
prices on upward trajectory once again. It is suspected that once a trade deal
is reached, then geopolitical risk will again be able to create upsets and the
often used recipe will be the rig count, which often creates the highest
deception.
During the first week of November 2019, hedge fund bets on
US benchmark, WTI that took its price to new highs. Even though US shale
producers are pumping crude like crazy and adding to supply, hedge funds see
reduced drilling as a sign of lower production next year.
It can’t be ruled out that western media will use three
scenarios for pushing oil prices higher in the near-and mid-term:
Sino-US deal
The long-running trade war between the world’s two biggest
economies has brought about a general malaise to the global economy. Negotiations
between Washington and Beijing have been long, intermittent and protracted with
plenty of confusion.
It is often said, all’s well that ends well - finally, there
seems to be some light at the end of the tunnel after the Trump-led team
announced they have finalized ‘Phase One’ of the trade negotiations. Oil
markets have largely remained indifferent, underlining just how much damage the
trade spat has wrought on the global economy. Maybe all those platitudes about
confidence bouncing back after an initial deal were a touch optimistic.
Geopolitical Risk
Rising geopolitical risks, particularly in the Middle East -
home to more than 60 percent of the world’s oil reserves is bullish for oil. Tensions
between Iran and Saudi Arabia reached a boiling point following the 14th
September attacks on Aramco’s oil facilities. The New Iran Deal remains a
highly emotive issue. Western media alleges Iran has kicked off another round
of uranium enrichment. The International Atomic Energy Agency will release
a new report, which will clarify whether Iran has been complying with its
commitments or not.
The European Union is desperate to forge a new nuclear deal
with Iran to replace the 2015 deal that Trump had quit last year. The EU is
trying to create a Special Purpose Vehicle that can help the bloc circumvent US
sanctions and continue buying Iranian oil. So far, it’s clear the sanctions are
working, with oil exports from Iran on a continuous decline.
In the highly likely event that Trump and his European
allies are unable to forge a new deal, tensions between Iran and Saudi Arabia
are likely to escalate. While chances of an all-out war with the US or
Saudi Arabia appear slim, tensions in the region are likely to remain high and
increase the supply risk.
Declining inventories and rig count
In late October, oil prices surged 3 percent after the US
Energy Information Administration reported a surprise decline in US crude
inventories. The organization revealed that on a seasonal basis, gasoline
demand in the US has been at its highest since 1991. Meanwhile, US oil rig
count has been trending south for many months now. The latest Baker Hughes
report showed a decline of 5 rigs from the preceding week to 817, and a
massive fall from the 1,057 rigs reported at a corresponding point last year. So
far, production has continued to rise amid the rig count collapse only because
drillers are focusing on bringing the considerable fracklog of uncompleted
wells online. Obviously, this can only go on for so long, and at some point,
production is bound to get compromised. Right now, it’s the perfect time
to play the short-term buy and sell game, buying on the dip and selling on the
spike, as long as WTI is trading at a bottom range of between US$49 to US$55.
